Lockdowns may have averted three million deaths in Europe by curbing COVID-19 - study

[snoop1130]

Lockdowns may have averted three million deaths in Europe by curbing COVID-19 - study

By Kate Kelland

 

FILE PHOTO: A view shows the deserted Grands Boulevards in Paris during a lockdown imposed to slow the rate of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in France, March 27, 2020. Picture taken March 27, 2020. REUTERS/Charles Platiau/File Photo

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Wide-scale lockdowns including shop and school closures have reduced COVID-19 transmission rates in Europe enough to control its spread and may have averted more than three million deaths, researchers said on Monday.

 

In a modelling study of lockdown impact in 11 nations, Imperial College London scientists said the draconian steps, imposed mostly in March, had “a substantial effect” and helped bring the infection’s reproductive rate below one by early May.

 

The reproduction rate, or R value, measures the average number of people that one infected person will pass the disease on to. An R value above 1 can lead to exponential growth.

 

The Imperial team estimated that by early May, between 12 and 15 million people in the 11 countries - Austria, Belgium, Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland - had been infected with COVID-19.

 

By comparing the number of deaths counted with deaths predicted by their model if no lockdown measures had been introduced, they found some 3.1 million deaths were averted.

 

“Measuring the effectiveness of these interventions is important, given their economic and social impacts, and may indicate which course of action is needed to maintain control,” the researchers said in a summary of their findings.

 

A second study by scientists in the United States, published alongside the Imperial-led one in the journal Nature, estimated that anti-contagion lockdown policies implemented in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States prevented or delayed around 530 million COVID-19 cases.

 

Focusing their analysis on these six countries, the U.S. research team compared infection growth rates before and after the implementation of more than 1,700 local, regional and national policies designed to slow or halt the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

 

They found that without anti-contagion policies in place, early infection rates of SARS-CoV-2 grew by 68% a day in Iran and an average of 38% a day across the other five countries.

 

Using econometric modelling normally used in assessing economic policies, they found lockdowns had slowed the infection rate with “measurable beneficial health outcomes in most cases”.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-06-08

 

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[rasmus5150]

With the economy down the drain, it's time for the pro-lockdown propaganda machine to shift it into high gear

[zeamonkey]

Meanwhile in Spain with 27k deaths (vs nanny state 58 deaths)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/11800115/nightclubs-discos-spain-coronavirus-dancing-ban/

 

Gonna be a great summer in the real world.

Edited June 8, 2020 by zeamonkey

[surangw]

or postponed the  problem 

[candide]

4 hours ago, surangw said:

or postponed the  problem 

It's likely the case. However, postponing until equipment, supplies --such as masks, tests, etc...- are avaible; health organisations are trained; and better ways to heal symptoms are found; is a big win. 

[JCauto]

13 hours ago, rasmus5150 said:

With the economy down the drain, it's time for the pro-lockdown propaganda machine to shift it into high gear

Or, alternatively, the lockdown actually worked as designed, thereby avoiding millions of deaths. Which was explained clearly as the rationale for the lockdown. And it was noted at the time that there was an inevitability that afterwards, people would say "why did we lockdown, look how few died!" and how this would be the indicator that the lockdown was successful. 

I typed this slowly so that you have a better chance of understanding it.

[phantomfiddler]

Definitely "May have" but on the other hand definitely "May not have" !

[yuyiinthesky]

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

In a modelling study of lockdown impact in 11 nations, Imperial College London scientists said the draconian steps, imposed mostly in March, had “a substantial effect” and helped bring the infection’s reproductive rate below one by early May.

LOL, the same Imperial college, which is responsible for the first flawed models predicting millions of death and causing the worldwide draconian lockdowns, while receiving a 70 million grant from vaccine promoter Bill Gates, now tries to justify its earlier wrong prognosis and deeply flawed code.
 

Sorry, Imperial College, please send your staff to some Exel and programming college before playing with models again.

[yuyiinthesky]

2 hours ago, JCauto said:

Or, alternatively, the lockdown actually worked as designed, thereby avoiding millions of deaths. Which was explained clearly as the rationale for the lockdown. And it was noted at the time that there was an inevitability that afterwards, people would say "why did we lockdown, look how few died!" and how this would be the indicator that the lockdown was successful. 

I typed this slowly so that you have a better chance of understanding it.

and totally ignoring the excess death the lockdowns are causing. Professor Karol Sikora, the Founding Dean and Professor of Medicine at the University of Buckingham Medical School and an ex-director of the WHO Cancer Programme, expects 50000 additional deaths alone in the UK because of skipped cancer checks and treatments (Source: Professor Karol Sikora in an interview by Unherd.com, available on the unherd.com website and on youtube). And that’s just for cancer!

[evadgib]

I stopped reading at ICL.

[Chomper Higgot]

Regardless of how many deaths they’ve averted, lockdowns have largely done what they we’re meant I to do, avert overload on health services.

Edited June 9, 2020 by Chomper Higgot

[yuyiinthesky]

15 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Regardless of how many deaths they’ve averted, lockdowns have largely done what they we’re meant I to do, avert overload on health services.

Certainly a valid point in countries with a lousy health service.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Certainly a valid point in countries with a lousy health service.

Its a valid point where the predicted occurrence of serious illness requiring hospitalization outstrips the heath service capacity.

[Krataiboy]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Regardless of how many deaths they’ve averted, lockdowns have largely done what they we’re meant I to do, avert overload on health services.

By the time the lockdown was imposed in the UK, the pandemic had almost peaked and there was no danger of demand outstripping resources.

[Sujo]

3 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

LOL, the same Imperial college, which is responsible for the first flawed models predicting millions of death and causing the worldwide draconian lockdowns, while receiving a 70 million grant from vaccine promoter Bill Gates, now tries to justify its earlier wrong prognosis and deeply flawed code.
 

Sorry, Imperial College, please send your staff to some Exel and programming college before playing with models again.

Those numbers where an estimate if nothing was done.

[Krataiboy]

These studies conflict with the conclusions of other epidemiologists. We really won't know what worked and what didn't until long after the virus has departed and we can rely on facts and figures rather than "estimates" of the that made Neil "Pantsdown" Ferguson and his Imperial College team an international laughing stock.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Its a valid point where the predicted occurrence of serious illness requiring hospitalization outstrips the heath service capacity.

Italy being a good example, a world class health system infact one of the best in the western world, totally overwhelmed until they imposed lockdown, then 2 weeks the daily new cases had peaked and the curve had been flattened. 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

By the time the lockdown was imposed in the UK, the pandemic had almost peaked and there was no danger of demand outstripping resources.

Putting aside the abysmal and deliberate tardiness of the British Government’s response:

 

So no need to leave old folks dying of COVID-19 in old people’s homes and no need to return COVID-19 patients to old people’s homes.

[Krataiboy]

25 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Putting aside the abysmal and deliberate tardiness of the British Government’s response:

 

So no need to leave old folks dying of COVID-19 in old people’s homes and no need to return COVID-19 patients to old people’s homes.

None whatsoever. This strategy amounts to criminal negligence, if not manslaughter, with nearly half of post-lockdown deaths in care homes.

Edited June 9, 2020 by Krataiboy

[rickudon]

8 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

and totally ignoring the excess death the lockdowns are causing. Professor Karol Sikora, the Founding Dean and Professor of Medicine at the University of Buckingham Medical School and an ex-director of the WHO Cancer Programme, expects 50000 additional deaths alone in the UK because of skipped cancer checks and treatments (Source: Professor Karol Sikora in an interview by Unherd.com, available on the unherd.com website and on youtube). And that’s just for cancer!

I think that is a worst case scenario. Cancer research estimate about 25,000 people with cancer have not been screened during the lockdown. Some would die anyway, but not all the rest will die, probably only a slightly higher proportion. There has been an impact on cancer treatment, but this is harder to estimate.

[geriatrickid]

14 hours ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

why continue these lies & fake news...

 

mortality not worse than a bad flu year or 0.2 percent of SICK/OLD people with chronic diseases

 

find out why the head of WHO (Ethiopian) was elected by CHINA as they allowed china to build a 500 million dollar railway in ... ETHIOPIA ... mhhhhhhhhhh

You have not provided a reliable data point. Covid 19 is not comparable to seasonal flu. How many times do you need to be told that the issue is not mortality? It has never been just mortality. The cost of care for the COVID19 patients  has blown the health care budgets of every country impacted. Do you have any idea of how much it costs to keep a patient on a ventilator for a week let alone the 30days+ that many patients experience? Consider the cost if 10X the patients had to be cared for. Now add in the cost of the delayed procedures because hospitals could not guarantee that patients for these procedures would not be exposed to COVID19. You also ignore the cost of chronic disease, but then you assume that a large number of COVID19 patients do not have lung damage and circulatory system inflammation. We are  only a few months into the crisis and the extent of physical harm has yet to be   fully realized or understood. 

 

 

 

 

 

[steelepulse]

11 hours ago, Krataiboy said:

By the time the lockdown was imposed in the UK, the pandemic had almost peaked and there was no danger of demand outstripping resources.

Yep, as data is now showing.  The peak was before the lockdown, but the chicken littles of this world will say that the lockdown is what prevented things from getting worse.

[steelepulse]

10 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Italy being a good example, a world class health system infact one of the best in the western world, totally overwhelmed until they imposed lockdown, then 2 weeks the daily new cases had peaked and the curve had been flattened. 

You do realize that the average age of "covid deaths"  in Italy is higher than normal, correct?  

[Bkk Brian]

6 hours ago, steelepulse said:

Yep, as data is now showing.  The peak was before the lockdown, but the chicken littles of this world will say that the lockdown is what prevented things from getting worse.

Not quite, the UK imposed lockdown on the 23rd March well before the peak https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-britain-johnson-guidelines-1.5507317

[Krataiboy]

10 hours ago, steelepulse said:

Yep, as data is now showing.  The peak was before the lockdown, but the chicken littles of this world will say that the lockdown is what prevented things from getting worse.

Excellent new analysis here:

https://www.aier.org/article/professor-lockdown-now-claims-to-have-saved-3-1-million-lives/

[Bender Rodriguez]

15 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

You have not provided a reliable data point. Covid 19 is not comparable to seasonal flu. How many times do you need to be told that the issue is not mortality? It has never been just mortality. The cost of care for the COVID19 patients  has blown the health care budgets of every country impacted. Do you have any idea of how much it costs to keep a patient on a ventilator for a week let alone the 30days+ that many patients experience? Consider the cost if 10X the patients had to be cared for. Now add in the cost of the delayed procedures because hospitals could not guarantee that patients for these procedures would not be exposed to COVID19. You also ignore the cost of chronic disease, but then you assume that a large number of COVID19 patients do not have lung damage and circulatory system inflammation. We are  only a few months into the crisis and the extent of physical harm has yet to be   fully realized or understood. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wonder why none of the so called experts have (no) tested any sick/death patients

 

on vitamin D levels

 

as for 1 baht a day, people could up their vitamin D levels and have a better chance to survive

 

specially the sick & old and some dark skin minorities are seen to be super deficient 

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=vitamin+d+levels+in+coronavirus+patients

 

 

[richard_smith237]

15 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

You have not provided a reliable data point. Covid 19 is not comparable to seasonal flu. How many times do you need to be told that the issue is not mortality? It has never been just mortality. The cost of care for the COVID19 patients  has blown the health care budgets of every country impacted. Do you have any idea of how much it costs to keep a patient on a ventilator for a week let alone the 30days+ that many patients experience? Consider the cost if 10X the patients had to be cared for. Now add in the cost of the delayed procedures because hospitals could not guarantee that patients for these procedures would not be exposed to COVID19. You also ignore the cost of chronic disease, but then you assume that a large number of COVID19 patients do not have lung damage and circulatory system inflammation. We are  only a few months into the crisis and the extent of physical harm has yet to be   fully realized or understood. 

 

In the UK the Nightingale hospitals were not used - it is excellent that the UK was prepared for a far larger outbreak.

 

How much does the cost of care of Covid-19 patients compare to the cost of the damage to the economy?

In the UK a vast proportion of the working population is not working but getting paid 80% of their wage (*up to a Maximum of £2500 per month). That is far more expensive for the UK government than the NHS bill.

 

Even without 80% Furlough schemes the costs to the economy could last for a decade.

 

The initial lock down was to protect the health services from being overwhelmed based on the catastrophic projections modeled. The modes were a worst case scenario but never realized.

 

Locking down when information was at a minimum was valid, yet many nations failed to lock down early enough and when they did lock down, are now holding on to lock down for too long - When know about the virus now, we know what it does, its rates etc, the health services are not overwhelmed and won't be - The continued decision to lock down is a purely political one.

 

 

 

[candide]

14 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Not quite, the UK imposed lockdown on the 23rd March well before the peak https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-britain-johnson-guidelines-1.5507317

How do you dare to bring facts into this discussion?

Why not just post unproven assertions, Internet memes and illogical statements? ????

[metisdead]

Some troll posts and replies have been removed.