Thailand is red-lighted in UK for quarantine purposes alongside Brazil, China and US, inexplicable move

[smedly]

4 minutes ago, Snow Leopard said:

Aye and keep the haggis in yer heed for eating. All the testing data you have mentioned is in the numbers i quoted. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

 

 

and

[smedly]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

I am just explaining my understanding of the concept of mortality rate as used by epidemiologists discussing the pandemic. If one wants to say something about the mortality rate, it points conceptually to how many people who actually have it who then actually die. The reported confirmed cases is going to be a subset of the actual cases. So, to dial in on the actual mortality rate (percentage of infected who then die), you have to try to use the confirmed cases to point to the assumed actual number (a number you can't objectively measure but you can infer). 

wrong - you can perform random testing of the general population and conclude very accurately - actual infection rates, like I said this has been done already in different countries and cities around the world and they all show similar results  

[Snow Leopard]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

If you're getting your mortality percentage figures from sites like worldometers then you're looking at the wrong place for accurate mortality rates. Its generally accepted that current models and studies give a death rate of 1% or less, although thats still high enough.

You are probably right of course. But where is the exact data? This started by how much CV-19 is, has or in the future will be in Thailand. I don't see the hospitals full of patients dying or people collapsing and dying in the street. Also the Thais have done a pretty good job of controlling it somehow. 

 

Another possible reason that i have is most public air conditioned spaces require mask wearing in Thailand. Add this to the fact there are very few air conditioned spaces that exist in general like say Singapore or Dubai may be a contributing factor. 

 

For me i would rather be in Bangkok than London right now that's for sure and i don't care what the British Government does or thinks. 

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, smedly said:

actually yes - 1%, consider that it is accurately estimated that only 20% of the populations of infected countries have had the virus so yes your projections are accurate if you consider we have a long way to go to reach so called herd immunity of 70%, this thing is no where near done and has a long way to go

 

The only thing that will alter mortality rates and infections is a magic bullet of either effective treatment for those hospitalised or a vaccine 

Wrong.

 

It is not "accurately estimated" that 20% of the population of infected countries have had the virus.

 

The country that has tested the most per capita, Iceland, had 0.8% of the population infected with Covid19.

 

In most countries it's similar. And the death rate is substantially below 1% in most countries.

 

I'd like to see where you get the 20% figure from.

Edited July 7, 2020 by Logosone

[thesetat2013]

On 7/6/2020 at 6:25 AM, Trillian said:

If they had tested more, would that have changed the number of fatalities!

Who is to say that the number of fatalities is accurate without testing properly? 

[mommysboy]

Regarding the percentage required for herd immunity, the argument that we start at zero is fallacious imo, and not just mine. In reality, a substantial portion of the population already appear immune from any particular virus of this type for unknown reasons- perhaps 20-40%.  A plausible explanation might be adaptive/cross immunity from previous infections, and even a general immunity from superficially unconnected vaccines.  Also, there is no magic figure that confers herd immunity, rather a gradual increase of immunity that provides increased protection for the wider community.

 

In reference to assumed infectivity throughout the population, this I think is a well established model developed principally in studies of influenza, and particularly the efficacy of vaccines.

 

A lower infection rate combined with better treatments might render covid19 somewhat like a bad flu outbreak in its ramifications, at least in developed countries.

 

 

Edited July 7, 2020 by mommysboy

[smedly]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Wrong.

 

It is not "accurately estimated" that 20% of the population of infected countries have had the virus.

 

The country that has tested the most per capita, Iceland, had 0.8% of the population infected with Covid19.

 

In most countries it's similar. And the death rate is substantially below 1% in most countries.

 

I'd like to see where you get the 20% figure from.

Iceland - seriously 

 

there are countries with no infection at all - why not quote one of those lol

 

do your own research - I have already given a good clue where to look in an earlier post - New York might also be a place to look as they have done extensive population sampling

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, smedly said:

Iceland - seriously 

 

there are countries with no infection at all - why not quote one of those lol

 

do your own research - I have already given a good clue where to look in an earlier post - New York might also be a place to look as they have done extensive population sampling

Iceland has done the most testing, more than any other country. Their data shows that 0.8% of the population has Covid19.

 

You talk about the US. The US has 2,938,000 cases with a population 328,200,000, so that gives you Ohhhhhhhhhh:

 

0.895%  almost exactly the same as Iceland. What a coincidence.

 

Where the hell did you get 20% from? You should do your research over again.

[Trillian]

38 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

Who is to say that the number of fatalities is accurate without testing properly? 

Unless you're suggesting testing corpses I think it's reasonably safe to assume that a person who was in hospital with covid symptoms probably was tested!

[ThailandRyan]

19 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Iceland has done the most testing, more than any other country. Their data shows that 0.8% of the population has Covid19.

 

You talk about the US. The US has 2,938,000 cases with a population 328,200,000, so that gives you Ohhhhhhhhhh:

 

0.895%  almost exactly the same as Iceland. What a coincidence.

 

Where the hell did you get 20% from? You should do your research over again.

Still on the small country of Iceland with a population of 341,279 vs. Thailand with a population of 69,802,816.  Your seriously barking up the wrong tree in trying to make this comparison you have been making for several weeks now.  Barking up the wrong tree and still not quite understanding the demographics as well as the lack of testing.  Not sure where you came up with your USA population, as it is actually 331,034,961 as of July 1, 2020, per the following web site on population and country statistics which is in real time.   https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/united-states-populatio

Edited July 7, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[Logosone]

22 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Still on the small country of Iceland with a population of 341,279 vs. Thailand with a population of 69,802,816.  Your seriously barking up the wrong tree in trying to make this comparison you have been making for several weeks now.  Barking up the wrong tree and still not quite understanding the demographics as well as the lack of testing.  Not sure where you came up with your USA population, as it is actually 331,034,961 as of July 1, 2020, per the following web site on population and country statistics which is in real time.   https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/united-states-populatio

Lol, if that were the case the percentage of infected is even smaller than 0.8%.

 

If the percentage works in Iceland and the US it works in Thailand as well. The number of infected is around 0.8% figure in most countries, bar a few minor exceptions.

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Lol, if that were the case the percentage of infected is even smaller than 0.8%.

 

If the percentage works in Iceland and the US it works in Thailand as well. The number of infected is around 0.8% figure in most countries, bar a few minor exceptions.

You can not compare your percentages without the same percentage of testing being done in all locations.  Johnny lives in the USA and has 1 million oranges, Jane lives in Thailand and has 50,000 oranges, and Jill lives in Iceland and has 500 oranges.  Each eat 10 oranges, now tell me the percentages are the same......

[Logosone]

What is this obsession with oranges on this forum lately?

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, Logosone said:

What is this obsession with oranges on this forum lately?

You do understand Analogies do you not?

[zhounan]

Maybe MI6 has more information than us.

[Ventenio]

i went to North Korea and asked them some questions...

 

1.  number of covid.                    0

2.  safest country                     n. korea

3.  worst country                      america

4.  most dangerous country        america

5.  most racist country                america

6.  treats minorities the worst     america

 

why think for yourself???????  this is why the internet and TV exists.  We are sheep...we cannot think....low IQ...we have all the information....we know everything.....we are the smartest.....

 

we know absolutely NOTHING.  repeat.  repeat.  repeat.  repeat.  

 

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

1 hour ago, thesetat2013 said:

Who is to say that the number of fatalities is accurate without testing properly? 

Unless you're suggesting testing corpses I think it's reasonably safe to assume that a person who was in hospital with covid symptoms probably was tested!

Not necessarily - There is an ongoing scandal in the US that those with Covid-19 symptoms can be classified as having Covid-19 and the hospital receives more money from medicare. There is an incentive not to test and just assume someone has Covid-19 to ensure the increased insurance payout. 

 

On another point: When discussions of testing vs Case Fatality Rates are discussed its important to note that there are different types of test. Speficially the PCR tests which identifies if someone has Covid-19 at that time, and the Antibody test (more than one type of test available with varying degrees of accuracy) which identifies if someone has been had Covid-19 (either with or without symptoms). 

 

Thus: When comparing deaths vs a tested population it is surely also important to test the population to see if they have had Covid-19 (at some point) rather than just test a population or proportion of the population to see if they have Covid-19. 

 

 

I suspect the only accurate way to do this is to take 100,000 people randomly from the voting register of an equally proportionate distribution of age across society, then: 

1) Check who is still alive. 

2) Check who has died due to Complications associated with Covid-19 (not just with Covid-19)

3) Check who has died without Complications associated with Covid-19 (i.e. died of something else, i.e. cancer etc)

4) Perform a Covid-19 PCR test on all remaining numbers of the population

5) Also, perform a Covid-19 Antibody test on all remaining numbers of the population

 

Present the numbers: 

Example: Of 100,000 people across all ages proportionally chosen to match the distribution of ages across society. 

- 0.3% have died

- 0.1% of those died because of Covid-19

- 0.2% of those died of other causes

- 7.3% Covid-19 PCR Positive 

- 22.4% Covid-19 Antigen Positive

- 70.0% Covid-19 PCR Negative and Antigen Negative

 

= 30% of the population have or have had Covid-19

= Calculated Covid FCR = 0.33%

 

NOTE: The above is just an example of made up numbers, but it's how I would like to see any case studies presented. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

Not necessarily - There is an ongoing scandal in the US that those with Covid-19 symptoms can be classified as having Covid-19 and the hospital receives more money from medicare. There is an incentive not to test and just assume someone has Covid-19 to ensure the increased insurance payout. 

It's the same in Spain. Because disposing of a dead Covid19 patient involves more cost hospitals receive more money for anyone who is diagnosed as having died of Covid19. Some doctors in Spain have complained that people are declared as having died of Covid 19 just as a matter of policy.

 

If hospitals get money for people they declare have Covid19 it is perhaps to be expected that they err on the side of Covid19.

[Purdey]

On 7/6/2020 at 1:08 PM, DavisH said:

What is "proper testing"?

 

Somewhere north of 1% of the population. 

• Some countries, like Australia, South Korea and Uruguay have a positive rate of less than 1% – it takes hundreds, or even thousands of tests to find one case in these countries.
• Others, such as Mexico and Nigeria, have positive rates of 20%–50% or even more. In these countries a case is found for every few tests conducted.
• The WHO has suggested a positive rate of around 3–12% as a general benchmark of adequate testing.

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing

[ThailandRyan]

Looks like the UK has shot itself in the foot again with Covid and reopening the pubs.....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/several-english-pubs-forced-to-close-again-after-customers-test-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB16qYX6?ocid=msedgntp

[garyk]

I think the world is waking up to the absolute nonsense spewed out by the Thai media. 

[KhaoNiaw]

Just now, garyk said:

I think the world is waking up to the absolute nonsense spewed out by the Thai media. 

No-one in the world reads the Thai media 

[smedly]

4 hours ago, Logosone said:

Iceland has done the most testing, more than any other country. Their data shows that 0.8% of the population has Covid19.

 

You talk about the US. The US has 2,938,000 cases with a population 328,200,000, so that gives you Ohhhhhhhhhh:

 

0.895%  almost exactly the same as Iceland. What a coincidence.

 

Where the hell did you get 20% from? You should do your research over again.

I give up

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, smedly said:

I give up

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

@smedly please do not feed into his Iceland diatribe, he is trying to mix apples and oranges and come up with his perfect belief system.

[smedly]

everyone needs to take a reality check in this country

 

my guess based on reliable data from other countries is at least 30,000 people have died from CV-19  in Thailand and the virus is spreading amongst the population at the same rate as anywhere else 

 

they know it and are hiding it - actions speak louder than words and there is a serious mismatch between what they are claiming and reality, some say why are the hospitals not filling up with sick people - well they aren't because they don't give a flying .. about people who are sick here - neither do they record deaths properly, it is the family that records a death and off to the burner they go - this is not the west - people die here and that is it, authorities have no interest in recording such things - head me in villages are the local authority - they are not doctors ............dead - burn have a slap up party bye bye - cause of death - they stopped breathing

 

some stupid people here think they are in the UK (or western countries) were everything is done by the book - a doctor must certify a death - every death, if you think that is the Thai way then you really have no idea about the country you are living in

 

waken up people and get the 3rd world head on and stop thinking that western standards apply here - they don't and not even close 

Edited July 7, 2020 by smedly

[ukrules]

11 hours ago, zhounan said:

Maybe MI6 has more information than us.

I doubt it

[Peter Denis]

5 hours ago, smedly said:

everyone needs to take a reality check in this country

 

my guess based on reliable data from other countries is at least 30,000 people have died from CV-19  in Thailand and the virus is spreading amongst the population at the same rate as anywhere else 

 

they know it and are hiding it - actions speak louder than words and there is a serious mismatch between what they are claiming and reality, some say why are the hospitals not filling up with sick people - well they aren't because they don't give a flying .. about people who are sick here - neither do they record deaths properly, it is the family that records a death and off to the burner they go - this is not the west - people die here and that is it, authorities have no interest in recording such things - head me in villages are the local authority - they are not doctors ............dead - burn have a slap up party bye bye - cause of death - they stopped breathing

 

some stupid people here think they are in the UK (or western countries) were everything is done by the book - a doctor must certify a death - every death, if you think that is the Thai way then you really have no idea about the country you are living in

 

waken up people and get the 3rd world head on and stop thinking that western standards apply here - they don't and not even close 

Hmmm... so instead of the 58 reported covid-deaths, thai authorities succeeded in hiding 30.000 covid-deaths without anybody (except you) noticing?

 

[hotandsticky]

5 hours ago, smedly said:

everyone needs to take a reality check in this country

 

my guess based on reliable data from other countries is at least 30,000 people have died from CV-19  in Thailand and the virus is spreading amongst the population at the same rate as anywhere else 

 

they know it and are hiding it - actions speak louder than words and there is a serious mismatch between what they are claiming and reality, some say why are the hospitals not filling up with sick people - well they aren't because they don't give a flying .. about people who are sick here - neither do they record deaths properly, it is the family that records a death and off to the burner they go - this is not the west - people die here and that is it, authorities have no interest in recording such things - head me in villages are the local authority - they are not doctors ............dead - burn have a slap up party bye bye - cause of death - they stopped breathing

 

some stupid people here think they are in the UK (or western countries) were everything is done by the book - a doctor must certify a death - every death, if you think that is the Thai way then you really have no idea about the country you are living in

 

waken up people and get the 3rd world head on and stop thinking that western standards apply here - they don't and not even close 

 

 

I would love to see your "reliable data"....

[nong38]

Perhaps its to do with with Thai requirements for entry, most travellers dont bother look at whats required, just buy the flight/holiday and then they a a  surprise on arrival. Saving themselves from themselves?

[Misab]

The English people are normally intelligent people but this stink. Is it the revenge of some sort, but revenge for what? Or perhaps plain stupidity among the English officials who didn't bother to check how few COVID-19 cases there are in Thailand?