Here’s Why Thailand’s Dire Economic Outlook Is the Worst in Asia

[pineapple01]

Funny why most of the Finacial Wizards here ride mopeds and live in cheap accommodation No im not sure but bet im right

[Globaleyes]

On 7/7/2020 at 9:12 AM, Trillian said:

GDP is measured by adding the sum of all spending in an economy, it must include everything:

 

https://econ101help.com/three-different-ways-to-calculate-gdp/

While generally true, I'd like to add that sum of spending is only one way to measure GDP.  Also, each method of calculation can only use the data that is known to the Govt, and would therefore exclude any data from the 'Black Economy'.  Now, I wonder if Thailand has (or had) a large 'Black Economy'? ....

Ofcourse, somewhere along the line the black and known economies interact in some way, but this would still not give us the full picture.

[Trillian]

23 minutes ago, Globaleyes said:

While generally true, I'd like to add that sum of spending is only one way to measure GDP.  Also, each method of calculation can only use the data that is known to the Govt, and would therefore exclude any data from the 'Black Economy'.  Now, I wonder if Thailand has (or had) a large 'Black Economy'? ....

Ofcourse, somewhere along the line the black and known economies interact in some way, but this would still not give us the full picture.

Yes agreed. We started to have this discussion a while ago in the thread but it didn't really conclude. That overlap between the black and white economies is more discernible in a country such as Thailand where there aren't that many financial and money laundering controls such as in the West. Money starts life here (or so it seems) in the white economy, becomes part of an illegal transaction and then the end product quickly enters the white economy once again. In the West those illegal proceeds would have to be laundered, here they seem to go straight into the bank accounts of relatives or become real estate transactions which is why so many everyday people are found to be unusually rich when they are forced to declare their assets.

 

So whilst I agree that we will never see the complete picture of both the black and the white economies, I suspect we see more of them here than is seen elsewhere, simply because of lax laws and the absence of enforced regulation. By way of an example: when I moved here to take up my post a few months ago I transferred funds to a Thai bank, later I had to move them to a newly opened account at a second bank and the way I did that was to withdraw cash and hand carry it across the shopping mall to my new bank. I walked into my new bank where hardly anyone had ever met me before and I put a large brown envelope on the counter containing 1.5 million baht and asked to deposit it. I offered to provide details of where the money came from but the bank simply wasn't interested and didn't care! Is there a large black economy here you ask, hmmmm!

Edited July 8, 2020 by Trillian

[KiwiMarty]

On 7/7/2020 at 4:10 PM, Traubert said:

No.

Ha ha ha. NO

[pineapple01]

10 hours ago, Trillian said:

Yes agreed. We started to have this discussion a while ago in the thread but it didn't really conclude. That overlap between the black and white economies is more discernible in a country such as Thailand where there aren't that many financial and money laundering controls such as in the West. Money starts life here (or so it seems) in the white economy, becomes part of an illegal transaction and then the end product quickly enters the white economy once again. In the West those illegal proceeds would have to be laundered, here they seem to go straight into the bank accounts of relatives or become real estate transactions which is why so many everyday people are found to be unusually rich when they are forced to declare their assets.

 

So whilst I agree that we will never see the complete picture of both the black and the white economies, I suspect we see more of them here than is seen elsewhere, simply because of lax laws and the absence of enforced regulation. By way of an example: when I moved here to take up my post a few months ago I transferred funds to a Thai bank, later I had to move them to a newly opened account at a second bank and the way I did that was to withdraw cash and hand carry it across the shopping mall to my new bank. I walked into my new bank where hardly anyone had ever met me before and I put a large brown envelope on the counter containing 1.5 million baht and asked to deposit it. I offered to provide details of where the money came from but the bank simply wasn't interested and didn't care! Is there a large black economy here you ask, hmmmm!

They had your Passport and other required detail's, what makes you think the price of a small Car requires raised eyebrows. You dont come near to Question time with small amounts. As in all Countries there is a [where this come from point ?], it was 15 Mill when i came here ages ago. but now i dont know about today , guess its much higher these days.

[Trillian]

7 minutes ago, pineapple01 said:

They had your Passport and other required detail's, what makes you think the price of a small Car requires raised eyebrows. You dont come near to Question time with small amounts. As in all Countries there is a [where this come from point ?], it was 15 Mill when i came here ages ago. but now i dont know about today , guess its much higher these days.

If you walk into a bank in the UK or the US and try to deposit a sizeable amount of cash, in the UK that's more than 2k pounds, questions will be asked, proof of source of funds required and if not satisfactory, the deposit will be refused. In the US anything over USD 10k in cash is reported to the Fed. Try carrying more than 2k Pounds onto an international flight in the UK without having proof of source of funds and they will take it away from you. But in Thailand t's OK to walk in and deposit 40k Pounds and that's not a problem....that was the point.

[pineapple01]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

If you walk into a bank in the UK or the US and try to deposit a sizeable amount of cash, in the UK that's more than 2k pounds, questions will be asked, proof of source of funds required and if not satisfactory, the deposit will be refused. In the US anything over USD 10k in cash is reported to the Fed. Try carrying more than 2k Pounds onto an international flight in the UK without having proof of source of funds and they will take it away from you. But in Thailand t's OK to walk in and deposit 40k Pounds and that's not a problem....that was the point.

Its is a Problem clearly its not something you have done. Or You have done so easily if you have ticked all the Banks requirements on opening the account initially. Nice update on other Countries Deposits.

[Mikeasq60]

17 hours ago, Jimbo2014 said:

Its true its taking a toll globally and in America in-particular.  Im not saying dont be cautious.  It makes sense to socially distance to some extent and to wear masks.  However unless there is a treatment or vaccine then we need to learn to live with it.  Its not the black death.  About 70 people die each day on the roads in thailand and countless more from the impact of poor air and water.  By comparison Covid has killed 58 people to date, a portion of which likely had serious underlying health issues.  America presents the other extreme where precautions have not been taken.   To date 133K deaths for 325M population.  Scaling that to Thailand you would get 27000 deaths.  Thats one years road toll in this country.  People learn to live with one risk but not the other.   Perhaps somewhere in the middle lies the future sans a cure, treatment, vaccine.

More test equals more positives and this corona virus 99.9% will survive!

[bert bloggs]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

If you walk into a bank in the UK or the US and try to deposit a sizeable amount of cash, in the UK that's more than 2k pounds, questions will be asked, proof of source of funds required and if not satisfactory, the deposit will be refused. In the US anything over USD 10k in cash is reported to the Fed. Try carrying more than 2k Pounds onto an international flight in the UK without having proof of source of funds and they will take it away from you. But in Thailand t's OK to walk in and deposit 40k Pounds and that's not a problem....that was the point.

you can carry up to 7k on an international flight ,done it many times ,no problem.

[Trillian]

13 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

you can carry up to 7k on an international flight ,done it many times ,no problem.

I didn't know the amount had been increased, I stand corrected.

[Trillian]

30 minutes ago, pineapple01 said:

Its is a Problem clearly its not something you have done. Or You have done so easily if you have ticked all the Banks requirements on opening the account initially. Nice update on other Countries Deposits.

Working for a bank might help!

[pineapple01]

52 minutes ago, Trillian said:

Working for a bank might help!

BKK Banks English advisers are excellent and most tolerant with the Know It All Ferangs ive reluctantly passed on to them. Dont send anymore has been said to me once or twice..!????

[tomauasia]

But still they welcome China. That alone shows why there economy is finished. This is a joke of a government. Weak at every turn. The only thing they do know is how to destroy farag tourism and rip apart all that was Thailand for there own egos. Leaving Thais destitute.

[tomauasia]

16 hours ago, pineapple01 said:

Funny why most of the Finacial Wizards here ride mopeds and live in cheap accommodation No im not sure but bet im right

Irrelevant comment. I know a Greek who owns the bank building center Melbourne city. He lives in a room with a frying pan for cooking fish.

[pineapple01]

12 minutes ago, tomauasia said:

Irrelevant comment. I know a Greek who owns the bank building center Melbourne city. He lives in a room with a frying pan for cooking fish.

Nutters are everywhere these Days.

[BigStar]

15 hours ago, pineapple01 said:

Funny why most of the Finacial Wizards here ride mopeds and live in cheap accommodation No im not sure but bet im right

You're referring to those who can still afford mopeds and cheap accommodations.

 

Sadly, most of our most distinguished Economists, who created the very Foundation of classical TVF Poster Economics, have had to return to the UK for lack of funds. They were, after all, primarily academicians and seers. Notably they all foresaw, decades ago, the doom wreaked, as it happened, by the coronavirus. Finally. ????

 

So it happened with one of our impecunious former distinguished TVF Economists: Professor Emeritus Joe Bloggs, DPhil Econ.hc. (TVF), who'd famously predicted the immediate failure of CentralFestival "for charging Bangkok prices." Nearly a decade later, CentralFestival still standing, he also authored a key indicator of imminent shopping mall failure: the stalls of doom indicator, seen when Thai stalls appear near an entrance to a mall. This, even though Central Marina had always had them. Though lesser known, it's now taken its place with our other key shopping doom indicator, the shopping bag count.

 

In the absence of The Founders, our lowly noob wannabe Economists, unaccustomed to the rigors the discipline, the long hours spent reading in the Bodleian, merely parrot the Principles passed down from thread to thread over the decades, as if original.

[Trillian]

Hmm, it looks as though the subject has decayed into nonsensical theatrics and laughing emoticon clickers, too bad for those hoping to engage in the actual topic. But I do understand it's not everyone's cup of tea and that not everyone is able to participate. Oh well, time to do some real work instead perhaps.

Edited July 9, 2020 by Trillian

[Jimbo2014]

5 hours ago, Mikeasq60 said:

More test equals more positives and this corona virus 99.9% will survive!

Yes more tests = more positives but many countries are doing almost maximum testing.  The virus mortality rate is likely between 0.25% and 1.25%.  Iceland probably shows a reasonable estimate of mortality rate as they have tested a huge % of citizens.  They have about 0.5% - so like 2-5 bad flu seasons. 

[Henryford]

On 7/7/2020 at 10:33 AM, Misterwhisper said:

When GDP is set to decline 8.1%, does that mean the THB will finally adjust to a more realistic exchange rate than it is now?

No, because the Western GDPs will decline by 15-20%.

[elgenon]

On 7/7/2020 at 11:05 PM, kingofthemountain said:

The girls are here

it's the foreigners customers who are lacking at the moment

Where are the girls available? "Build it and they will come". 555

 

My bud and I are trying to get there.

[BritManToo]

23 hours ago, BigStar said:

You're referring to those who can still afford mopeds and cheap accommodations.

I've got a pickup, roads in CM too busy for me to use it.

I've got a scooter, great for 30Km and longer journeys.

I've got a bicycle, best of all for trips under 20Km ........ and it keeps me fit.

As for money, fully funded since I was age 45 (20 years back).

Could have earned more, but prefer to work less.

 

As for dire economic outlook,

Don't care, I'll be dead before it matters, unless TEOTWAWKI happens real soon.

 

Just as a matter of interest, at what age did you attain 'fully funded' status for the rest of your life?

Edited July 10, 2020 by BritManToo

[kingofthemountain]

46 minutes ago, elgenon said:

Where are the girls available?

every bar actualy open is packed with a full staff of girls

same thing for the massage shops

and the quality is much better everywhere (Age, weight)

with half of the bars still closed (And almost all the gogos)

the ones opens have a large choice for recruitment

[rkidlad]

I see my post was removed. I guess pointing out that the people in charge are the ones to blame for the worst economic outlook in Asia is off-topic, trolling or offensive. Who knows - I was never told. 

 

What was it that Churchill said? "The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is".

 

Not anymore, Winston. What a time to be alive.  

 

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by rkidlad

[actonion]

On 7/7/2020 at 1:12 PM, Anton9 said:

Hey, at least there's no Covid.

Who cares about everything else?

None that "you' know of