New COVID-19 infections in Thailand are highly contagious G viral strain – Dr. Yong

[webfact]

New COVID-19 infections in Thailand are highly contagious G viral strain – Dr. Yong

 

 

The coronavirus strain, found among quarantined Thai returnees from abroad, is the mutated G strain, which has been spreading in the United States and Europe. It is not the S strain, which originally spread in Thailand, according to Dr. Yong Poovorawan of Chulalongkorn University, Thailand’s top virologist.

 

He said that, if there is a second wave of infections in Thailand, the G strain virus, or G614, will be dominant, because it is about ten times more contagious than the S strain, originally identified in Asia, but it does not appear to be more deadly.

 

Dr. Yong said that the CCSA has been cooperating closely, with the Institute for Prevention and Control of Urban Diseases, to study infections in state quarantine facilities, so that Thailand will be better prepared in case there is a second outbreak, most likely of the G strain. 

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/new-covid-19-infections-in-thailand-are-highly-contagious-g-viral-strain-dr-yong/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2020-07-13

 

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[spiekerjozef]

Happy stay in the state quarantine facilities...

[NCC1701A]

keep the borders closed. 

 

good job Thailand. 

[ThailandRyan]

Stay safe, but travel freely within the borders by doing it wisely.  Thai's seem to believe they are living in a bubble without the possibility that the virus is still here and in hiding...

[Jingthing]

This is so insidious. One loose infectious person and we're off to the races. 

[Anton9]

I thought it was the Kebab strain coming from Middle East.

[Anton9]

21 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

This is so insidious. One loose infectious person and we're off to the races. 

Yes, we are all going to die with a rate of asymptomatics of 80%.

 

[stephenterry]

With a 100% certainty that would happen as soon as there are land, air, and sea border relaxations. However, Thailand, with almost probably a very low (acknowledged) infection rate, if at all, has a better chance of containing a future out break to within reasonable numbers.

 

And as the mutated strain - at the moment - is apparently quantified as no less deadly, not only death rates in Thailand would be low, but more survivors would become immune - which is the next best outcome to a vaccine.

 

  

[stephenterry]

2 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Yes, we are all going to die with a rate of asymptomtic of 80%.

 

A possible 20% risk of death is still serious enough to avoid at all costs. A family of five, if all affected, would lose one of their nearest and dearest - an occurrence I wouldn't be flippant about.

[spiekerjozef]

8 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

more survivors would become immune - which is the next best outcome to a vaccine.

That is the US strategy, infect everybody.

And they are doing a stunning job to achieve that.

Downside: you might lose a few....

 

[Anton9]

4 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

A possible 20% risk of death is still serious enough to avoid at all costs. A family of five, if all affected, would lose one of their nearest and dearest - an occurrence I wouldn't be flippant about.

80% are TOTALLY asymptomatic

20% of people might just have just a sore throat 

20% risk of death?Maybe you are watching too much CNN

[ExpatOilWorker]

Herd Immunity May Be Closer Than You Think https://www.wsj.com/articles/herd-immunity-may-be-closer-than-you-think-11594076237

[Bkk Brian]

16 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Yes, we are all going to die with a rate of asymptomatics of 80%.

 

Its estimated that 45% of cases are asymptomatic for the entire duration of infection. 35% have mild symptoms, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation.

 

Mild symptoms can still make you extremely sick with long term health problems.

[Anton9]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Its estimated that 45% of cases are asymptomatic for the entire duration of infection. 35% have mild symptoms, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation.

 

Mild symptoms can still make you extremely sick with long term health problems.

https://time.com/5842669/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission/

[spidermike007]

Endless panic mongering. No new cases amongst the population in 43 days. All new cases directly into quarantine. Yet, many cling to fear and thoughts of the coming Zombie apocalypse. Sad, really. Embrace the safe zone we have here. After all, how many of your friends and family here are keeling over from Covid? Zero!

 

A little common sense goes a long way. 

[Paiman]

Anxiety will kill them all.    Not me.

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

https://time.com/5842669/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission/

Not disputing the findings from that but one study from a ship does not make it a worldwide statistic. "It’s difficult to extrapolate the results to larger populations"

 

I was quoting figures from WHO.

 

Its not clear yet but to say 80% of people have no symptoms whatsoever is pushing it

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

The coronavirus strain, found among quarantined Thai returnees from abroad, is the mutated G strain, which has been spreading in the United States and Europe. It is not the S strain, which originally spread in Thailand, according to Dr. Yong Poovorawan of Chulalongkorn University, Thailand’s top virologist.

 

He said that, if there is a second wave of infections in Thailand, the G strain virus, or G614, will be dominant, because it is about ten times more contagious than the S strain, originally identified in Asia, but it does not appear to be more deadly.

Maybe he should also have mentioned that he was getting this information from this peer reviewed study.

 

Tracking changes in SARS-CoV-2 Spike: evidence that D614G increases infectivity of the COVID-19 virus

 

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30820-5

[jojothai]

49 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

80% are TOTALLY asymptomatic

20% of people might just have just a sore throat 

20% risk of death?Maybe you are watching too much CNN

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Update on figures using new guidance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CDC mean estimate is that 40% of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic and the chance of transmission from people with no symptoms is 75%.

In updated guidance on 10 July , the CDC gave its "current best estimate" based on data from late last month for people infected with COVID-19 who are asymptomatic raised to 40% from 35%.

The CDC previously estimated that the chance of transmission of the virus from asymptomatic people was 100%. Now it is reduced to 75%.

Under the new figures, the CDC estimated that 0.65% of people infected with Covid-19 are forecasted to die.

 

If 40% of people infected are asymptomatic, then that would make the number infected 1.67 times the reported cases.

If CDC chances of dying are 0.65% for high infection rates such as the USA with the infection rate adjusted to say 1.67 x 1%,

the chances of dying would be about  0.01%  or 1 in  10,000

and in countries with 0.1% reported infections , its 1 in 100,000.

Thailand reported cases is much lower,  if we can believe it .

However, even at 1 in 100,000 that would be 700 people for Thailand's population approx 70million.

 

Compare that to how many people die in traffic accidents here every year .

There has been almost 8000 deaths this year already.

That could be seen as at least ten times more chance of getting killed on the road here. 

[charmonman]

47 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

80% are TOTALLY asymptomatic

20% of people might just have just a sore throat 

20% risk of death?Maybe you are watching too much CNN

It is more like a 2-5 % risk of death which is still pretty frightening. Another 10-15 % end up very sick for weeks or months with possible lung and other organ damage. Not good.

I find some people are exaggerating this risk somewhat while others are burying their head in the sand.

[rtco]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

mutated G strain

Or would that be the G string?

[morrobay]

https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-events/press-room/2020/20200611-choe-farzan-sars-cov-2-spike-protein.html

This is the D614G (random) mutation:  A gene codon for aspartic acid (D) was replaced for a codon for glycine (G) Since this altered the secondary protein structure* in a way that increased the virus spike protein  binding sites to the host target receptor, ACE2 it increases infectivity. However intra host viral replication is decreased. So less serious cases but more of them. Again a textbook case of natural selection : greater host to host transmission but less deadly . If host dies so does virus.

*Primary protein structure is amino acid sequence in protein chain.

 

[JusticeGB]

5 minutes ago, rtco said:

Or would that be the G string?

Obviously that's why going to agogos is so dangerous the G strings!

[DrTuner]

Thank you for that, I will take this as confirmed then..

 

 

The piece of the puzzle I haven't been able to fit is why did Thailand have excess deaths as early as May 2019. 

[Saltire]

Well this is a bit worrying ..........

 

 

[Bender Rodriguez]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Endless panic mongering. No new cases amongst the population in 43 days. All new cases directly into quarantine. Yet, many cling to fear and thoughts of the coming Zombie apocalypse. Sad, really. Embrace the safe zone we have here. After all, how many of your friends and family here are keeling over from Covid? Zero!

 

A little common sense goes a long way. 

and some people in "power" here over react even worse when you try to tell your point of view

[Bkk Brian]

27 minutes ago, NB1986 said:

Indeed the G strain is more contagious but less lethal than S strain, and this virologist should also explain people that if virus mutates and spread faster is less lethal, the first wave the S strain was less contagious but more lethal in the end it will be just like an ordinary flu which also kills yearly up to 650.000 people. We have to accept that virus will stay here but it will be less lethal also because of more people will create antibodies. Is definetely not good to scaring off people with such facts and say that virus is more contagious but not say fact that is less lethal. 

Its reported that the G strain is more infectious yes, by around 10 times, but I've found no study claiming it to be less lethal?

[yuyiinthesky]

To my astonishment I have not found that any scientist has isolated the SARS-CoV-2 Virus yet. All this panic caused by PCR tests which nobody can really say what they test for. 
 

As in the PCR test patented by Germany‘s Drosten, based on RNA fragments found in the lungs of 4 early Chinese patients, maybe a virus, maybe whatever. Not tested against the virus, as it was never isolated. No Gold-Standard. This is not science, this is gambling.

 

Which tests are used? Are they validated? You think so? Well sorry, they are not. No isolated Virus, no virus confirmed by the main criteria, Koch's postulates. Validation thus impossible, not even attempted.

 

But be scared. Shut down. Stay home. After all it was in the news, it must be true.

[SchuetzRob]

2 hours ago, Anton9 said:

Yes, we are all going to die with a rate of asymptomatics of 80%.

 

....and life for 100% of us will end with death, covid or no covid.

[soalbundy]

3 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

keep the borders closed. 

 

good job Thailand. 

I saw an American doctor on Youtube recently saying that covid is probably here to stay and that a vaccine won't help much. Covid is a cousin of the common cold and influenza, the virus causing these two conditions mutates every year so that a vaccine is of little help as it will only help with the old strain and we will always be running after the new strain's development. It will probably end up being seasonal like influenza, every autumn and winter a new strain so it would seem we will have to live with it, influenza kills tens of thousands every year and we have gotten used to it. It seems to prefer temperatures of 4 Centigrade so we should be alright in Thailand. A virus doesn't try to kill its host, that would be counterproductive, it wants its host to live and spread it around, the deaths that have occured arise from an overreaction from the body's own immune reaction from some of the victims.