Dates for Coming Back?

[CygnusX1]

For travel without 2 weeks hotel quarantine, I’d guess an absolute minimum of 18 months. That assumes that at least one of the leading vaccine candidates proves to be highly effective, and is manufactured at the scale of the WW2 Manhattan project. Everyone would have to show evidence of vaccination, similar to the certificate for yellow fever vaccination required for travel to South America.

[uffe123]

Is this a joke? I have wife, son and house  in Bangkok and I just tried to come back to stay with my family. what a joke. Had ticked and insurance and looked for a government quarantined hotel. All booked solid through August, September,October, November. Good fnk luck. They make it so difficult it is nearly impossible. Also 5 star quarantine hotels picked by the government. 2 weeks would probably have cost me 80K to stay. Whats wrong with a one star, you ant go anywheres anyway. I'am sure there is a little tea money involved. Wife keep asking me when are you coming back? Who the hell knows?

Edited July 22, 2020 by uffe123
spelling

[BritTim]

Just now, CygnusX1 said:

For travel without 2 weeks hotel quarantine, I’d guess an absolute minimum of 18 months. That assumes that at least one of the leading vaccine candidates proves to be highly effective, and is manufactured at the scale of the WW2 Manhattan project. Everyone would have to show evidence of vaccination, similar to the certificate for yellow fever vaccination required for travel to South America.

I think we need to wait to see how many countries can achieve sustained cessation of community transmission or, at least, the ability to rapidly eliminate any outbreaks that occur. If a substantial number of countries (including Thailand) can achieve this, I believe there are strong economic reasons, and limited public health risks, in developing travel bubbles between those countries. Note that neither long term immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from a previous infection nor a fully effective vaccine are anything like a certainty. Worst case, even Covid-19 free countries may eventually be faced with an unenviable choice. Either they must adapt their economies to a new reality of severely limited international travel (including virtually zero international tourism) or they must reverse course and accept the deaths of thousands of their citizens. I sincerely hope it does not come to that.

[Senior Player]

The latest news is that Emirates has just announced their flight plans for this and the following year from the UK, and they claim that they'll be back "to the new normal" by October 1st. That doesn't mean there won't be a reduced service as they're planning on cutting five flights to four from London to Bangkok. Though it certainly looks like a positive step in the right direction. Is it too soon to celebrate? Maybe. But at least it offers a glimmer of hope for those wanting to getaway in late Autumn or the Winter.

Edited July 22, 2020 by Senior Player

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, uffe123 said:

Is this a joke? I have wife, son and house  in Bangkok and I just tried to come back to stay with my family. what a joke. Had ticked and insurance and looked for a government quarantined hotel. All booked solid through August, September,October, November. Good fnk luck. They make it so difficult it is nearly impossible. Also 5 star quarantine hotels picked by the government. 2 weeks would probably have cost me 80K to stay. Whats wrong with a one star, you ant go anywheres anyway. I'am sure there is a little tea money involved. Wife keep asking me when are you coming back? Who the hell knows?

You needed to apply for a Certificate of Entry (no need for the ASQ or Flight ticket at that stage). Then when one becomes available the Embassy allocates you a repatriation flight (you pay the airline directly). Booking the ASQ does seem like a problem as many are complaining they are booked up - people hedging their bets.

Thailand has increased the ASQ list from 14 to 26 hotels. 

 

There is no tea money involved. I am currently in ASQ in Bangkok (Spouse of Thai Citizen).

The ASQ is 45,000 baht (3000 per night including food) - the place is about 3 star and probably costs about 2,000 baht per night normally (without food).

[Buri utd]

Do I qualify to come back to Thailand, i was married 27 years to a Thai, although she died last year, i still have the marriage certificate. 

[connda]

With 90% of the Thai population begging the government to close the borders indefinitely - don't hold your breath. 
Foreign tourists will be back when enough economic pain has been applied to the country and people start to get desperate for income. Until then?  Maybe never?

[rct99q]

30 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

You needed to apply for a Certificate of Entry (no need for the ASQ or Flight ticket at that stage). Then when one becomes available the Embassy allocates you a repatriation flight (you pay the airline directly). Booking the ASQ does seem like a problem as many are complaining they are booked up - people hedging their bets.

Thailand has increased the ASQ list from 14 to 26 hotels. 

 

There is no tea money involved. I am currently in ASQ in Bangkok (Spouse of Thai Citizen).

The ASQ is 45,000 baht (3000 per night including food) - the place is about 3 star and probably costs about 2,000 baht per night normally (without food).

Hi Richard,

I am booked in for the 24th July @ The Kinn. How is your hotel? Food ok?

I commented on a few other topics and although a bit time consuming the process all in all was not overly difficult. 

[Geordie Munro]

1 hour ago, Senior Player said:

The latest news is that Emirates has just announced their flight plans for this and the following year from the UK, and they claim that they'll be back "to the new normal" by October 1st. That doesn't mean there won't be a reduced service as they're planning on cutting five flights to four from London to Bangkok. Though it certainly looks like a positive step in the right direction. Is it too soon to celebrate? Maybe. But at least it offers a glimmer of hope for those wanting to getaway in late Autumn or the Winter.

A friend of mine is a senior purser with EK and has been rostered a DXB-BKK-DXB flight in late August - the first time BKK has been on any Emirates roster since March. As you say, maybe a glimmer of hope but I'm not betting on it.

[BritTim]

1 hour ago, Buri utd said:

Do I qualify to come back to Thailand, i was married 27 years to a Thai, although she died last year, i still have the marriage certificate. 

Assuming you have no Thai children, the fact that you were once married to a Thai does not help you, sorry.

[bwpage3]

12 hours ago, ubonjoe said:

I think that is an extreme guess. Even a year is going to far I think. As a I wrote above the Thai Elite may be part of the next group.

Those with valid extensions based upon retirement or OA visas could be included later.

7600 Thai Visa Elite holders

 

That is not letting in very many.

 

It seems the rich and powerful get their way, let in all the migrant laborers so they can continue to build their fortunes on the backs of slave labor.

 

Emergency decree extended to August 31 already.

 

Who knows what can happen before then?

[Chivas]

11 hours ago, Kelsall said:

I'm talking without quarantine, insurance, special documentation, proof of being vaccinated or immune etc.

3-4 years yes

[mike787]

return date: 2021-2022 very likely. 

[thai006]

october 2020

[bwpage3]

Phizer was reporting in US news vaccine may be available in October 2020. US ordered 100,000,000 doses.

 

[BritTim]

1 hour ago, bwpage3 said:

Phizer was reporting in US news vaccine may be available in October 2020. US ordered 100,000,000 doses.

I will be astounded if the FDA (even under intense political pressure) would agree to certify a vaccine before it was proven safe and effective. There might be a black market in unproven vaccines by October, but people would be crazy to use them. Just maybe, the FDA might be ready to certify vaccines starting around January. Very speculative.

[SVC Porter]

6 hours ago, Geordie Munro said:

A friend of mine is a senior purser with EK and has been rostered a DXB-BKK-DXB flight in late August - the first time BKK has been on any Emirates roster since March. As you say, maybe a glimmer of hope but I'm not betting on it.

Emirates have been taking bookings to BKK for quite some time now.  I booked my ticket on 29th May to depart second week of August....obviously there is not even a snowballs chance of it going ahead but they've been taking bookings for a while now.

[tribalfusion001]

They will open when they are desparate for some tourist money.

[mjakob007]

19 hours ago, ubonjoe said:

I think that is an extreme guess. Even a year is going to far I think. As a I wrote above the Thai Elite may be part of the next group.

Those with valid extensions based upon retirement or OA visas could be included later.

Unless commercial flights are allowed, it would be almost impossible for elite visa or retirement category to travel 

[lazygourmet]

The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand has hinted at the possibility of extending the international commercial flight ban according to the National News  Bureau of Thailand.

It coincides with reliable information from sources close to Thai Airways International suggesting the airline will not start international services until December.

TTR WEEKLY 

[Straight8]

Can believe how desperate some people are to get back in.

 

This questions pops up so often. What makes anyone asking these questions think that someone from TV will have a definite answer. Just follow the news. It will become clear & obvious when travel for the general tourist will be allowed.

 

Living on false ope is not healthy. 

 

[bwpage3]

4 hours ago, BritTim said:

I will be astounded if the FDA (even under intense political pressure) would agree to certify a vaccine before it was proven safe and effective. There might be a black market in unproven vaccines by October, but people would be crazy to use them. Just maybe, the FDA might be ready to certify vaccines starting around January. Very speculative.

There are already in human testing phase. Perhaps reading up instead of speculating?

[CANSIAM]

22 hours ago, ubonjoe said:

I think that is an extreme guess. Even a year is going to far I think. As a I wrote above the Thai Elite may be part of the next group.

Those with valid extensions based upon retirement or OA visas could be included later.

Ok Joe, always been wondering when the forgotten Non O Ret. folks would be considered!!!!

[Nemises]

20 hours ago, Kelsall said:

I'm talking without quarantine, insurance, special documentation, proof of being vaccinated or immune etc.

Yep, a different ball game to post #1. The things that you’re now talking about will remain in place until a vaccine is: 1/ found 2/ rolled out to your country. 
 

We could be talking years...
 

[CANSIAM]

12 hours ago, uffe123 said:

Is this a joke? I have wife, son and house  in Bangkok and I just tried to come back to stay with my family. what a joke. Had ticked and insurance and looked for a government quarantined hotel. All booked solid through August, September,October, November. Good fnk luck. They make it so difficult it is nearly impossible. Also 5 star quarantine hotels picked by the government. 2 weeks would probably have cost me 80K to stay. Whats wrong with a one star, you ant go anywheres anyway. I'am sure there is a little tea money involved. Wife keep asking me when are you coming back? Who the hell knows?

yes its very close to a JOKE, sorry to hear that. 

[BritTim]

7 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

There are already in human testing phase. Perhaps reading up instead of speculating?

Of course, I know about vaccine trials, including some at level 3. How long do you think it takes to know that a vaccine provides a decent degree of immunity over an extended period? Did you know that antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among those previously infected seem to start to fade within 30 days of recovery, and may reach levels no longer protecting against reinfection after as little as two to three months? Does that have implications for vaccine candidates? (Maybe.) How long do you think it takes to be reasonably confident that a vaccine has no deleterious health impacts? There is a limit to the speed at which vaccine testing (and the testing of new treatments for that matter) can be carried out. Just knowing that you can inject a vaccine and get antibodies, and/or T cell changes, consistent with immunity without someone immediately dropping dead is a very long way from a proven effective and safe vaccine. 

Edited July 23, 2020 by BritTim

[stoicccc]

9 hours ago, lazygourmet said:

The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand has hinted at the possibility of extending the international commercial flight ban according to the National News  Bureau of Thailand.

It coincides with reliable information from sources close to Thai Airways International suggesting the airline will not start international services until December.

TTR WEEKLY 

smells like more amnesty way past Sep 26th coming up

[bwpage3]

3 hours ago, BritTim said:

Of course, I know about vaccine trials, including some at level 3. How long do you think it takes to know that a vaccine provides a decent degree of immunity over an extended period? Did you know that antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among those previously infected seem to start to fade within 30 days of recovery, and may reach levels no longer protecting against reinfection after as little as two to three months? Does that have implications for vaccine candidates? (Maybe.) How long do you think it takes to be reasonably confident that a vaccine has no deleterious health impacts? There is a limit to the speed at which vaccine testing (and the testing of new treatments for that matter) can be carried out. Just knowing that you can inject a vaccine and get antibodies, and/or T cell changes, consistent with immunity without someone immediately dropping dead is a very long way from a proven effective and safe vaccine. 

Lots of words that mean nothing.

 

There are world class experts working on this vaccine.

 

Rest assured they know what they are doing.

 

If not, prepare for doomsday.

[BritTim]

13 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

There are world class experts working on this vaccine.

 

Rest assured they know what they are doing.

I agree entirely, and those who are not motivated by commercial or political considerations are all warning that, at best, we can expect a properly tested vaccine early next year.

 

It would be hugely beneficial to a certain candidate if a vaccine was certified before the November election, and I expect political pressure on the FDA to do so. The FDA was induced to approve hydroxychloroquine for treatment of Covid-19 under political pressure (before later withdrawing approval) but they will be well aware of the consequences of premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine.

[OJAS]

On 7/22/2020 at 7:40 PM, khunPer said:

the bobble-tourism might also begin after some more month from selected countries like China, Japan and South Korea, as they have been mentioned

Highly ironical for China to be included in any "selected" list, I think, given that they are fairly and squarely to blame for inflicting the COVID-19 virus on this great planet of ours.