Aviation authority expects sector to recover in the fourth quarter

[webfact]

Aviation authority expects sector to recover in the fourth quarter

By The Nation

 

File photo

 

The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) has predicted that the aviation business will recover during the high tourist season, especially when international flights allow the return of Chinese tourists, even as domestic flights are on a positive trend.

 

Overall, the impact of the Covid-19 has caused all airlines to lose about 70 per cent of passengers because of the reduced travel demand. Airlines must also comply with social distancing measures by leaving one seat empty between passengers, said CAAT director-general Chula Sukmanop.

 

The CAAT estimates that in the fourth quarter of the year, airlines will see recovery duing the high season. Also, if there is no second outbreak of Covid-19, international travel should begin at the end of the year which will enable recovery of the aviation business.

 

"Many airlines are now focusing on increasing domestic flights and opening new flight paths to new markets. If the end of the year tourist season can return to normal, overall Thai aviation this year is likely to recover," said Chula

 

He said international visitors may have a chance to return to Thailand and the first will be an Asian group, such as South Korea, Japan and China, especially from China who are currently unable to travel abroad. If the Covid-19 situation is resolved and Thailand can open the country for the travellers, he believes the Chinese will be the first group of potential tourists returning to Thailand with high purchasing power as the economy in China is not much affected by Covid-19.

 

During the week July 12-18, the number of international passengers was 13,422, a 5.7-per-cent decrease from the previous week while there were 845 international flights, an increase of 6 per cent.

 

Domestic passenger volume during the said period was 510,505 people, down 5.7 per cent as it was a normal working week after a long break.

 

However, the number of domestic passengers during the third week of July is likely to increase when compared to the number during the week before the long holiday. This is in line with the increasing number of domestic flights --5,680 flights, an increase of 2.6 per cent -- from the previous week's 5,535 flights, as more airlines are operating on domestic routes.

 

International air freight volume in the third week of July was 13,673 tons, an increase of 11.3 per cent from the previous week in line with the domestic air freight volume of 409 tons, up by 7.3 per cent from the previous week.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30391795

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-07-23

 

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[PFMills]

Which year?

[RichardColeman]

3 minutes ago, webfact said:

The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) has predicted that the aviation business will recover during the high tourist season,

Not a chance. Anyone planning a holiday now, is seeing the mad silly hoops to jump through and booking elsewhere. I think we can all agree the Thai high season is about to be reported as the lowest high season ever. If high season is a 400 kg man jumping in a pool, this high season will be an ant jumping in

[2 is 1]

Just in other news say they may not open incoming  international flight before december!

Right hand don't know what left is doing!

Best way to say they are ARMLESS donk's!

[scorecard]

5 minutes ago, 2 is 1 said:

Just in other news say they may not open incoming  international flight before december!

Right hand don't know what left is doing!

Best way to say they are ARMLESS donk's!

Lots of confusion, this morning I spoke to a Thai embassy outside LOS, officer says if foreigner gets a COE issued the foreigner must take a Thai repatriation flight back to  LOS, cannot take a commercial flight (if they are operating).

 

Yesterday I spoke to the Thai ministry of health, exact opposite comment, up to you;  repat flight or commercial flight (if operating).  

[sammieuk1]

Xi will be so happy with "P" he could give him a bone ???? 

[Laughing Gravy]

You have to give Thais for their optimism or is it just that they can't face reality.

[ezzra]

Not really depend on Thai aviation industry, more like on the countries that the expected tourists will come from, Thai planes can fly everywhere but will they have the passengers to fill those planes this is the big mystery...

[DaftToPutRealName]

9 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

You have to give Thais for their optimism or is it just that they can't face reality.

Facing reality is an uncommon thing when everyone bends backwards to protect each other from it - lest they lose face.

I just had a new employee tell me 3 weeks in that they intend to quit "in 2 months' time" to go back to living with their family; after spending a bunch of money on capital works and them being in the middle of training. Reality check of being told to pack up their box the same day was a hard to swallow pill.

[yellowboat]

They will be lucky if all goes back to normal before lunar new year.   Next month, Vietnam will starts talks with China about flights between the two countries.  The US infection rate will continue to spook many countries.  And like somebody already stated, who wants to travel with all these crazy restrictions.   If you really want to travel comfortably, buy a nice sailboat on Bahtsold.com 

[nausea]

I think the real danger is that the tourist infrastructure will disappear, with any prolonged dearth of tourists. People are hanging on at the moment, by the skin of their teeth. Eventually, they'll move on, do other things. 

[DoctorG]

Gotta luv an optimist. 

[newcomer71]

CAAT Is the same that let slip to the press they might ban flights till December. Dumb and dumber.

[jojothai]

"the aviation business will recover during the high tourist season"

"international travel should begin at the end of the year" 

Does he not know that high season is not just from the end of the year.

What a load of nonsense.

and most of the price gouging is over christmas / new year.

As noted by others, Perhaps it will be early December with this in mind.

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by jojothai
clarification

[DepDavid]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

 

During the week July 12-18, the number of international passengers was 13,422, a 5.7-per-cent decrease from the previous week

How is this if the borders are basically closed?

[Laughing Gravy]

1 hour ago, DaftToPutRealName said:

Facing reality is an uncommon thing when everyone bends backwards to protect each other from it - lest they lose face.

I just had a new employee tell me 3 weeks in that they intend to quit "in 2 months' time" to go back to living with their family; after spending a bunch of money on capital works and them being in the middle of training. Reality check of being told to pack up their box the same day was a hard to swallow pill.

That old childish concept of losing face and what is real. It is just one of the reasons that has kept back Thailand from being a much better, wealthier and healthy country. I know it won't change. Not in my lifetime.

[Wildliferescue]

Just heard from a minster that Thailand will probably be closed for foreign tourism until January, so how on earth will anything recover before that???

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 hours ago, webfact said:

Also, if there is no second outbreak of Covid-19, international travel should begin at the end of the year which will enable recovery of the aviation business.

 The above comment seems consistent with another thread here today where it was reported that regular international air travel into Thailand may not be allowed until the end of the year.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

17 hours ago, webfact said:

If the Covid-19 situation is resolved and Thailand can open the country for the travellers, he believes the Chinese will be the first group of potential tourists returning to Thailand with high purchasing power as the economy in China is not much affected by Covid-19.

 

Oh joy!!!  Let's return to where it all started... After all, they have nothing to be responsible for here.... 

[JusticeGB]

I seem to remember an expression from when I was young it was "the yellow peril" now it's covid19. I can't see the Chinese rushing back to Thailand they to have been out of work and unless the Thai Government gets rid of compulsory quarantine and the US$100,000 insurance requirement no tourists will come rushing back. At the moment a UK tourist would have to self quarantine on their return to the UK as well.

[Laughing Gravy]

12 minutes ago, Wildliferescue said:

Just heard from a minster that Thailand will probably be closed for foreign tourism until January, so how on earth will anything recover before that???

Fortune tellers.

[holy cow cm]

Yes and pigs will also be flying in the 4th quarter as well. 

[klauskunkel]

Ok. Airlines will recover by end of year, because tourists will be back. However, all the hotels have gone belly-up in the mean time, so tourists will have to stay in military barracks...

[Grumpy one]

Someone has been snorting something 

Either that or just overmedicating 

[Kaopad999]

Yes, and the Chinese tourists will arrive with very little to do when they notice that 90% pf the tourists spots will have already shut down by then.

 

[miamiman123]

Enjoy it

just like the ole 2001 days

[rtco]

Huh ... https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1174325-thailand’s-flight-ban-might-extend/?utm_source=newsletter-20200723-1330&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

[RichardColeman]

25 minutes ago, JusticeGB said:

I seem to remember an expression from when I was young it was "the yellow peril" now it's covid19.

Can't quite see that the Trotters painting a kitchen is relevant , but hey ho'

[jojothai]

The statement about numbers needs some figuring out. It raises a few questions.

"the number of international passengers was 13,422, a 5.7-per-cent decrease from the previous week while there were 845 international flights,"

In the week thats on average about 16 passengers per flight

Surely something wrong with the numbers or how the flights are counted?

Maybe he's counting air freight flights, we will never know.

Even if we assume half were passenger flights, it would still be only 31 passengers per flight??

 

The figures also give some concern there's potentially a lot of people coming back into the Country, or are they all leaving?

There's over 10,000 each week. How many were coming in and going out?

If coming in - what type of people and where from?

I thought there were just "thousands" registered and struggling to get back here. Please correct me if you can provide related info.

 

I hope the tens of thousands were mainly returning Thais, and not thousands of special privilege guests that may be coming in under the radar. We have already seen what can happen with that.

Can anybody refer us to more info on these numbers

 

[Pilotman]

Then it's one of the only aviation authorities in the World that thinks so. Most are predicting, and planning, on a very slow recovery in mid to late 2021. Good luck Thailand in catching up with the rest of the World in aviation terms. Most are shedding jobs and aircraft as fast as they can, in order to stave off bankruptcy.  

Edited July 23, 2020 by Pilotman