Those on the Visa amnesty

[dodgybros]

On 8/16/2020 at 9:57 PM, vermin on arrival said:

Do you speak for the Australian Embassy? Can you see into the future? They say that now, and they also said that in mid-July. At the end of July they changed their policy. Many Embassies have flip flopped back and forth throughout this epidemic. In the end, we are all just speculating. We'll see what they do at the end of Sept.

Nope, I quote what is relevant today, the ambassador does a daily update via facebook and advises everything is subject to change, if you are Australian I suggest you watch and if you are not it is of little relevance. the fact still remains Qatar have never stopped flying from Thailand to Australia via Doha, the option to return has always been there.

[CorpusChristie]

3 hours ago, BritTim said:

I applaud trying to think outside the box, and this would work splendidly where everyone arrives healthy, while helping out cruise lines that are hurting even worse than airlines right now. The drawback is that you immediately have a total disaster as soon as anyone on board gets sick. Cruise ships have been demonstrated to be petri dishes. I have not seen any discussions of practicable modifications that could be made to the ships to prevent mass infection outbreaks on board. Could be worth pursuing.

Thailand has submarines now ......................

[BritManToo]

6 hours ago, PatrickC said:

Why would they possibly extend if they said there will be no further extensions?

You're confusing what immigration says with what the government says.

One is in charge, one isn't.

[jackdd]

30 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

The economic benefit of those staying in Thailand as tourists is so tiny it is nothing more than a drop in the ocean.

Still better than nothing. How would Thailand benefit if they force these people out?

There is also a marketing aspect to it. If Thailand allows them to stay they can later claim that they took good care of their guests and provided a safe haven in difficult times. If they kick people out they can not only not use this marketing strategy, but they will most likely get negative press.

 

There might be a few persons teaching English in some village school without a work permit on a tourist visa for 20k a month, but does Thailand really benefit if these guys get kicked out? In nearly every case this would mean no more native English teacher for these kids.

[vermin on arrival]

17 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

Thai GDP is about 16 trillion Baht a year. The tourists we're speaking about spend maybe a few hundred Baht a day. Divide a few hundred Baht by 16 trillion. We're really talking the tiniest number imaginable.

 

How would Thailand benefit if they force these people out? It would appear to be a country of law and order, which is exactly what it needs to become. Rules are rules. If someone can return to their country of citizenship, Thailand should enforce their immigration laws and make it so. 

 

I'd be in favour of precisely the same in my country of citizenship. I'd oppose any amnesty due to covid for any foreigners there. 

 

Marketing? No one cares. Tourists will still flock to Thailand again once they can. Great weather and beaches - Europeans and the Chinese love it. They'll come back.

 

 

Ve must have order!

[Zikomat]

21 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

Thai GDP is about 16 trillion Baht a year. The tourists we're speaking about spend maybe a few hundred Baht a day. Divide a few hundred Baht by 16 trillion. We're really talking the tiniest number imaginable.

 

How would Thailand benefit if they force these people out? It would appear to be a country of law and order, which is exactly what it needs to become. Rules are rules. If someone can return to their country of citizenship, Thailand should enforce their immigration laws and make it so. 

 

I'd be in favour of precisely the same in my country of citizenship. I'd oppose any amnesty due to covid for any foreigners there. 

 

Marketing? No one cares. Tourists will still flock to Thailand again once they can. Great weather and beaches - Europeans and the Chinese love it. They'll come back.

 

 

In places like Pattaya our presence is vital at the moment. Many restaurants, pubs, massage parlors and shops depend on us. Solely. We help to keep these tourist places alive. The amnesty will be definitely prolonged. Sorry for disappointing you.

 

 

[audaciousnomad]

3 hours ago, PatrickC said:

If I was in govt, I would not extend it. I'd see it as a nuisance which needs to be dealt with, not extend the amnesty and ensure those overstaying were found and moved on out. 

And yet....YOU ARE NOT IN GOVT.  So your opinion will do nothing to influence what will happen with the amnesty. Thanks anyway! ????

[Sundown]

I will just wait until it's possible to go to a nearby embassy. Last time agents pressured with all their bribe visa and I am glad I didn't make any. I'm pretty sure that if the borders will not open on the 27th September there will be another amnesty extension. If it won't I'll be on overstay and contact an agent. IF there will be no solution to this, I will just overstay less than 3 months and go somewhere. Meanwhile I enjoy reading the "go home brigade" on TVF during breakfast near the pool ????

[Daithi85]

Indonesia done a last minute U-turn and is extending there visa amnesty, Thailand will probably do the same.????????????or at least allow people to extend visas from within.

[ubonjoe]

Several off topic posts meant to deflect the topic and the expected replies to them have been removed.

[salsajapan]

1 hour ago, Sundown said:

I will just wait until it's possible to go to a nearby embassy. Last time agents pressured with all their bribe visa and I am glad I didn't make any. I'm pretty sure that if the borders will not open on the 27th September there will be another amnesty extension. If it won't I'll be on overstay and contact an agent. IF there will be no solution to this, I will just overstay less than 3 months and go somewhere. Meanwhile I enjoy reading the "go home brigade" on TVF during breakfast near the pool ????

 

yes we just need to pay for an elite visa at the last minute

 

 

[CorpusChristie]

47 minutes ago, salsajapan said:

 

yes we just need to pay for an elite visa at the last minute

 

 

Apart from an Elite visa takes about one month to process (as do most other long term visas)

Retirement/Education visas take at least 3 weeks to process and the Thai Gov seems to give visa amnesty info a week or two before implementation .

  Back in March when the Thai Gov required everyone to get letters from their Embassies for a visa extension , Immigration only gave extensions for 20 days initially, requiring people to go back for the extra tens days .

  Those initial 20 days were not enough time top process a long term visa because a minimum of 21 days left on your PTS

[321 BOOM]

There are several options on the table.

 

1. option, If I can get a flight out in early / middle October I simply will overstay and will pay the fine if cheaper than VAR2

2. I will apply for a non immigrant O for 3 month, my agent can do this...and waiting 3 more month for a flight out

3. Get a retirement visa, can be done as well, but I do not want to put 45k THB agent fee on the line knowing that

I want to leave LOS ASAP for good anyway even if I easily can afford it.

 

So yes, most likely it will be option 2. But the final decision I will not make earlier than 1 week before the 26th.

 

 

 

[CorpusChristie]

1 hour ago, 321 BOOM said:

3. Get a retirement visa, can be done as well, but I do not want to put 45k THB agent fee on the line knowing that

I want to leave LOS ASAP for good anyway even if I easily can afford it

I didnt particularly want to commit to staying in Thailand for 15 months and paying the 45 K , but this virus isnt going away any time soon , Countries opening up and closing down again , flights difficult and expensive to get , may have to go into quarantine in some Countries .

  Some people flew to Sri Lanka last March and en route, Sri Lanka got closed down, the people arrived in SL and then got sent back to Thailand .

  Thailand refused to let them in, so, they had to spend five days in the airport trying to book a flight back to their home Country .

  45 K may end up being the cheapest option over the course of 15 months 

[321 BOOM]

1 hour ago, CorpusChristie said:

I didnt particularly want to commit to staying in Thailand for 15 months and paying the 45 K , but this virus isnt going away any time soon , Countries opening up and closing down again , flights difficult and expensive to get , may have to go into quarantine in some Countries .

  Some people flew to Sri Lanka last March and en route, Sri Lanka got closed down, the people arrived in SL and then got sent back to Thailand .

  Thailand refused to let them in, so, they had to spend five days in the airport trying to book a flight back to their home Country .

  45 K may end up being the cheapest option over the course of 15 months 

The cheapest option is overstay, maximum fine 20K THB, if you do not care about being banned from entering Thailand again, which I particularly don't as I will not return to LOS by any means even if I would get paid for it. Quite a bit risky though and as I have family not really and option, but if I would be alone I certainly would consider it.

[CorpusChristie]

13 minutes ago, 321 BOOM said:

The cheapest option is overstay, maximum fine 20K THB, if you do not care about being banned from entering Thailand again, which I particularly don't as I will not return to LOS by any means even if I would get paid for it. Quite a bit risky though and as I have family not really and option, but if I would be alone I certainly would consider it.

May also have to pay for a flight directly back home if caught on overstay , then either stay back home or get another flight out somewhere 

[Walker88]

A month ago I might have put the odds of an amnesty extension at 1%; now I would put it at 15%. Many of these 'daily flights out' some claim exist do not actually run, particularly as virus spikes have popped up around the world everywhere from Japan to New Zealand to the EU. I have had several last minute cancellations by an airline that many here claim flies every day. It does not. I have also been at Suvarnabhumi and watched the flight board turn from "On Time" to "Cancelled".

 

There is no net gain to Thailand by forcing everyone out, while there is a net gain, however minimal, in allowing folks to stay. Some might argue the economic contribution is tiny, but each person still here is likely supporting more than a few Thai jobs. The staff in my hotel often asks me to stay, because having already been cut to 3 work days a week, they fear outright layoff. I am willing to bet I have spent more since March than 99% of retirees or those with Thai spouses. Also, some in positions of authority happen to maintain enterprises that are currently benefiting from those on amnesty, and these authority types may well have the ear of the one and only person who makes the final decision about amnesty, which is the Prime Minister. Immigration folks were certain 31 July was the end, and even re-oped a 2nd processing facility near CW to meet the expected flow. The PM, however, had the final word.

 

Those on visa amnesty are not causing trouble. Owing to hotel reporting requirements, the govt knows where we all hang our hats at night. We are enjoying the generosity of the Kingdom in the exact same way retirees are enjoying it. I might guess that if, heaven forbid, the virus re-emerges in Thailand, all the retirees will be ushered out along with all the other foreigners on amnesty, as net-net the retirees are also a tiny contribution to the Thai economy and Thailand hardly needs them. Given the poll numbers regarding the Thai people's desire, or not, to bring in foreigners, booting everyone out if the virus returns could well prove a popular move. It matters little whether such a move is logical; in times of panic or stress logic tends to evaporate and tribalism takes hold.

 

Various govt figures have stated that they hope to re-engineer Thailand's tourism industry to draw fewer people but more elite types. Listening to these various proposals, it would not be a surprise if at some point Thailand only allowed long stay to those on programs like Thai Elite, and that Thailand stopped the practice of allowing retirement visas, as most on these visas are unlikely to be the elite visitor or resident of which these numerous govt figures speak as their target visitor or resident.

 

 

[JackThompson]

On 8/20/2020 at 10:57 PM, PatrickC said:

Thai GDP is about 16 trillion Baht a year. The tourists we're speaking about spend maybe a few hundred Baht a day. Divide a few hundred Baht by 16 trillion. We're really talking the tiniest number imaginable.

Room and board are 1K Baht/day+ ($30) minimum X30 days / mo.  These people don't have kitchens and such.  They also get bored, so spend more money on touristy-things.  The few living bare-bones are more than offset by those living well.

 

On 8/20/2020 at 10:57 PM, PatrickC said:

How would Thailand benefit if they force these people out?

More Thais would lose what little income they have left - not that Immigraton cares a whit about their lives.

 

On 8/20/2020 at 10:57 PM, PatrickC said:

It would appear to be a country of law and order, which is exactly what it needs to become. Rules are rules. If someone can return to their country of citizenship, Thailand should enforce their immigration laws and make it so. 

So, you are in favor of bringing in the Singapore police or similar, to investigate and arrest the corrupt Immigration folks, who don't follow / make up rules to block legitimate applications?   If so, I am with you 100%.

[Olmate]

38 minutes ago, JackThompson said:

Room and board are 1K Baht/day+ ($30) minimum X30 days / mo.  These people don't have kitchens and such.  They also get bored, so spend more money on touristy-things.  The few living bare-bones are more than offset by those living well.

 

More Thais would lose what little income they have left - not that Immigraton cares a whit about their lives.

 

So, you are in favor of bringing in the Singapore police or similar, to investigate and arrest the corrupt Immigration folks, who don't follow / make up rules to block legitimate applications?   If so, I am with you 100%.

Probably easier to move to Singapore then let’s know how it works there!

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, Walker88 said:

A month ago I might have put the odds of an amnesty extension at 1%; now I would put it at 15%. Many of these 'daily flights out' some claim exist do not actually run, particularly as virus spikes have popped up around the world everywhere from Japan to New Zealand to the EU. I have had several last minute cancellations by an airline that many here claim flies every day. It does not. I have also been at Suvarnabhumi and watched the flight board turn from "On Time" to "Cancelled".

 

There is no net gain to Thailand by forcing everyone out, while there is a net gain, however minimal, in allowing folks to stay. Some might argue the economic contribution is tiny, but each person still here is likely supporting more than a few Thai jobs. The staff in my hotel often asks me to stay, because having already been cut to 3 work days a week, they fear outright layoff. I am willing to bet I have spent more since March than 99% of retirees or those with Thai spouses. Also, some in positions of authority happen to maintain enterprises that are currently benefiting from those on amnesty, and these authority types may well have the ear of the one and only person who makes the final decision about amnesty, which is the Prime Minister. Immigration folks were certain 31 July was the end, and even re-oped a 2nd processing facility near CW to meet the expected flow. The PM, however, had the final word.

 

Those on visa amnesty are not causing trouble. Owing to hotel reporting requirements, the govt knows where we all hang our hats at night. We are enjoying the generosity of the Kingdom in the exact same way retirees are enjoying it. I might guess that if, heaven forbid, the virus re-emerges in Thailand, all the retirees will be ushered out along with all the other foreigners on amnesty, as net-net the retirees are also a tiny contribution to the Thai economy and Thailand hardly needs them. Given the poll numbers regarding the Thai people's desire, or not, to bring in foreigners, booting everyone out if the virus returns could well prove a popular move. It matters little whether such a move is logical; in times of panic or stress logic tends to evaporate and tribalism takes hold.

 

Various govt figures have stated that they hope to re-engineer Thailand's tourism industry to draw fewer people but more elite types. Listening to these various proposals, it would not be a surprise if at some point Thailand only allowed long stay to those on programs like Thai Elite, and that Thailand stopped the practice of allowing retirement visas, as most on these visas are unlikely to be the elite visitor or resident of which these numerous govt figures speak as their target visitor or resident.

 

 

Can we assume that you will be publishing  shortly a verified expenditure report of your spending since March together with the survey where you asked every retirees or those with Thai spouses in the country to provide you with their own verified expenditure  report  to confirm that you have indeed spent more than the 99% or is it correct to say that you haven't conducted such survey and all the figures in your post are just 100% BS

[DrJack54]

2 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

May also have to pay for a flight directly back home if caught on overstay , then either stay back home or get another flight out somewhere 

If randomly found on overstay and arrested you won't go anywhere near an airport.

 

[Walker88]

28 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Can we assume that you will be publishing  shortly a verified expenditure report of your spending since March together with the survey where you asked every retirees or those with Thai spouses in the country to provide you with their own verified expenditure  report  to confirm that you have indeed spent more than the 99% or is it correct to say that you haven't conducted such survey and all the figures in your post are just 100% BS

Curious that in a lengthy post you focused on a single line. It seems to have struck a dissonant note in you.

 

If we 'wager' and the loser pays PricewaterhouseCoopers the accounting fee (which would not constitute a gamble, but rather a simple business expense and thus in violation of no law), I'm game to stand by my assumption. I would think an organization like PWC would have pretty accurate figures on retiree expenditures, and similarly they could verify my expenditures.

 

In fact, a post detailing what retirees pay would prove an interesting thread, both for those who live in Thailand and those considering it.  Education is always useful.

 

I raised my point because there is a side in all visa amnesty debates that downplays the impact amnesty expenditures have, but at the same time acts as if retiree expenditures are somehow a considerable inflow to the Thai economy. I would argue that neither is particularly impactful, but both could be useful to the country in a time of massive layoffs.

[vinny41]

5 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Curious that in a lengthy post you focused on a single line. It seems to have struck a dissonant note in you.

 

If we 'wager' and the loser pays PricewaterhouseCoopers the accounting fee (which would not constitute a gamble, but rather a simple business expense and thus in violation of no law), I'm game to stand by my assumption. I would think an organization like PWC would have pretty accurate figures on retiree expenditures, and similarly they could verify my expenditures.

 

In fact, a post detailing what retirees pay would prove an interesting thread, both for those who live in Thailand and those considering it.  Education is always useful.

 

I raised my point because there is a side in all visa amnesty debates that downplays the impact amnesty expenditures have, but at the same time acts as if retiree expenditures are somehow a considerable inflow to the Thai economy. I would argue that neither is particularly impactful, but both could be useful to the country in a time of massive layoffs.

I suspect the PricewaterhouseCoopers fee would be considerable to undertake a survey of every retirees or those with Thai spouses As to your claims I suspect that 99.9% of Thaivisa forum members would agree with me that they are 100% BS

[vermin on arrival]

On 8/21/2020 at 11:36 AM, Daithi85 said:

Indonesia done a last minute U-turn and is extending there visa amnesty, Thailand will probably do the same.????????????or at least allow people to extend visas from within.

Yes, they have. Interesting and good for them.

 

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/jakarta-relents-allows-visa-free-tourists-to-stay-in-bali-20200727-p55fxz

[Jeffro008]

On 8/21/2020 at 11:40 AM, ubonjoe said:

Several off topic posts meant to deflect the topic and the expected replies to them have been removed.

well done and conitue please

the Cold War never finished and Panidemic prooves it for me.

note the rediculaus world areas claims of China are esculating and tension has been for years now correct ?

 

[2 is 1]

About amnesty end 26 next month. Its possible, but how many people is still here when that day comes? Mean people who are here coz amnesty! 50000 or more, all cant leave during that day! If now (flights what departure BKK to out Thailand) is about 5-10/ day! It take many weeks that people get out! They cant give fine from overstay to everybody! That just look too ugly! Even 150 people /plane times 5 =750/day, its 66 days only for that people to get out from here!

If only 50k "stuck" here! And all flights not suit to everybody, i think not most! And all flight's have get more expensive close 26 next month!

[CorpusChristie]

14 minutes ago, 2 is 1 said:

About amnesty end 26 next month. Its possible, but how many people is still here when that day comes? Mean people who are here coz amnesty! 50000 or more, all cant leave during that day! If now (flights what departure BKK to out Thailand) is about 5-10/ day! It take many weeks that people get out! They cant give fine from overstay to everybody! That just look too ugly! Even 150 people /plane times 5 =750/day, its 66 days only for that people to get out from here!

If only 50k "stuck" here! And all flights not suit to everybody, i think not most! And all flight's have get more expensive close 26 next month!

We've all had six weeks notice about either getting a visa or departing .

[FlyingThai]

1 hour ago, 2 is 1 said:

About amnesty end 26 next month. Its possible, but how many people is still here when that day comes? Mean people who are here coz amnesty! 50000 or more, all cant leave during that day! If now (flights what departure BKK to out Thailand) is about 5-10/ day! It take many weeks that people get out! They cant give fine from overstay to everybody! That just look too ugly! Even 150 people /plane times 5 =750/day, its 66 days only for that people to get out from here!

If only 50k "stuck" here! And all flights not suit to everybody, i think not most! And all flight's have get more expensive close 26 next month!

Everybody knows that the 26th is the LAST day of the Visa amnesty (for now). That doesn't mean you have the right to remain until the very last second of the 26th SEP and then demand further leeway to leave the country. From today one has more than four weeks to prepare the departure or prepare to become illegal after midnight.

[jacko45k]

On 8/18/2020 at 6:34 PM, BritTim said:

The drawback is that you immediately have a total disaster as soon as anyone on board gets sick.

Yes, wasn't there one sailing around the world looking for somewhere to dock being refused everywhere until Cambodiaa in early Covid days.

[CorpusChristie]

On 8/21/2020 at 11:36 AM, Daithi85 said:

Indonesia done a last minute U-turn and is extending there visa amnesty, Thailand will probably do the same.????????????or at least allow people to extend visas from within.

It seems that Indonesia's visa amnesty has not been extended .

From mid August people can pay to extend their visa from within Indonesia , which is not quite the same as having a free  visa amnesty