Thailand’s success in containing the coronavirus may not help its economy much

[webfact]

Thailand’s success in containing the coronavirus may not help its economy much

Yen Nee Lee

 

-- Thailand’s economy could be one of Asia’s worst performing this year after the pandemic caused a slump in tourist arrivals, said economists.

-- Adding to concerns are intensifying anti-government protests that some analysts said could distract authorities from their priority of keeping the economy going.

-- Thailand on Monday reported its economy shrinking by 12.2% on-year in the second quarter — its deepest economic contraction since the Asian financial crisis in 1998.

 

FILE PHOTO: Reuters

 

Thailand’s relative success in containing the coronavirus may do little to chart a smooth recovery for its economy, which could be one of Asia’s worst performing this year after the pandemic caused a slump in tourist arrivals, said economists.

 

Adding to concerns are intensifying anti-government protests that some analysts said could distract authorities from their priority of keeping the economy going.

 

Thailand on Monday reported its deepest economic contraction since the Asian financial crisis in 1998. The Southeast Asian economy shrank by 12.2% on year in the second quarter — better than the 13.3% contraction forecast by a Reuters poll.

 

Full story: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/18/thailands-success-in-containing-the-coronavirus-may-not-help-its-economy-much.html

 

-- CNBC - 2010-08-19

[AndrewMciver]

A raging pandemic like you have in India, USA, wouldn't help the economy either. On top of that you would hurt the citizens you are trying to protect. 

 

 

[pegman]

The Thai economy was in deep trouble before the pandemic. Tourism, exports, vehicle sales amoung others were way down prior to the virus hitting. The high ฿ may help the holdings of someone up high in the Thai hierarchy but it was wreaking havoc on the Thailand economy in general.

[RichardColeman]

i sometimes get the feeling the junta want to keep control so the populace don't get to know just how bad it truly is 

[sammieuk1]

I feel an increase of the strength of the Baht coming to confound the markets ????

[BLACKJACK2]

How can locking down your economy and keeping it locked down indefinitely help your economy, bit of a daft headline.

[baansgr]

24 minutes ago, BLACKJACK2 said:

How can locking down your economy and keeping it locked down indefinitely help your economy, bit of a daft headline.

It does say..."not help"????

[daveAustin]

1 hour ago, AndrewMciver said:

A raging pandemic like you have in India, USA, wouldn't help the economy either. On top of that you would hurt the citizens you are trying to protect. 

I know what you're saying, but those places will bounce back faster than others. The likes of Thailand with their 'low' numbers will end up paranoid (unaccepting of increasing numbers) and forever be hankering for that top spot, resulting in continual lockdowns while the rest of the world moves on.

 

Btw, the Thai gov is not all that interested in protecting its citizens sadly. As for the tourist industry, they want that erased in its current guise.

[tribalfusion001]

Once a country decides on a strategy then you have to stick with it, managed virus control or eradicate it. Thailand has chosen closed borders, no one will have a holiday there with 2 week quarantine, so either suffer the economic fallout with no tourists or open up with the risk of importing the virus. Less people are dying with it in Europe now even though infections are rising, smells like cr*p to me. Test on arrival and open everywhere up.

[yellowboat]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Adding to concerns are intensifying anti-government protests that some analysts said could distract authorities from their priority of keeping the economy going.

They never did a good job "keeping the economy going".  That is why there are protests.  They just stayed out of the way of the elitists, so they could reap billions.  What gains has the average Thai gotten from military rule?

[Pattaya Spotter]

1 hour ago, daveAustin said:

I know what you're saying, but those places will bounce back faster than others. The likes of Thailand with their 'low' numbers will end up paranoid (unaccepting of increasing numbers) and forever be hankering for that top spot, resulting in continual lockdowns while the rest of the world moves on.

 

Btw, the Thai gov is not all that interested in protecting its citizens sadly. As for the tourist industry, they want that erased in its current guise.

Maybe you haven't noticed but there is no lockdown in Thailand...maybe you're referring to Australia, New Zealand, France, the UK, the States, and other places where the virus is still running rampant. 

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s success in containing the coronavirus may not help its economy much

They just figured out that the economy was going down the pan long before Covid came along as a good excuse to put the blame on something.
With domestic infections supposedly low and companies back to normal the old problems that were there before are still having an affect. Nothing was done then and nothing is being done now.

[Caldera]

That it's "not helping" is putting it mildly. The insane entry requirements that are a direct result of the "zero cases" expectation that has taken hold don't just affect tourism, but also business and investment.

 

While I could see tourism swinging back within a few years, I think the overall damage to the Thai economy, that was already lagging behind before the pandemic, will be sustained. At the very least, Thailand will need an innovative government with fresh ideas. Even if that will materialize, they'll play catch-up with other countries.

[vivananahuahin]

When you put your eggs in one basket you see what's happening,now after the recession a deep depression,the too high baht need to be 10% down(34 b for 1$)

if they want a big boost on the economy.

[spidermike007]

No grants, no assistance of any kind. Everywhere I go income seems to be down. And yet the ridiculously timid army still refuses to come up with any tourism plan.

 

The Thai economy already had many issues prior to Covid. And the quality of tourism had been dropping for years. 

 

Now, ANY tourist, from ANY nation, should be allowed in, as long as they are willing to subject themselves to a 14 day jail sentence (quarantine), at their own expense. No other requirements or restrictions. Anything less is dumb, paranoid, sadistic and cavalier. 

[EvetsKram]

Have you ever noticed that thailand only considers the hospitalised in their covid count, many many more cases but they don't count if suffering at home.  Kind of like the garbage road death figures

[Bender Rodriguez]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s relative success in containing the coronavirus

don't test = success ? 

check number of test per 1M population

[Rancid]

You lock down or you don't. Once locked there is no going back having instilled fear in the population to justify it in the first place. Australia has minuscule deaths, the statistics don't lie, its equal to a bad flu, and yet we are all screaming the end is nigh. Victoria has mandatory masks and the army patrolling the streets, and now the police are being armed with automatic weapons! Insanity that few question. Think its better to be in Thailand, even the military government there is less fascist than Australia.

[Fex Bluse]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s success in containing the coronavirus may not help its economy much

Better headline might read 

 

"Thailand's planned 'don't ask, don't tell' minimal testing strategy failed to account for anything other than 'luring' and manufactured confidence" 

 

????

Edited August 19, 2020 by Fex Bluse

[madmen]

7 hours ago, pegman said:

The Thai economy was in deep trouble before the pandemic. Tourism, exports, vehicle sales amoung others were way down prior to the virus hitting. The high ฿ may help the holdings of someone up high in the Thai hierarchy but it was wreaking havoc on the Thailand economy in general.

Conspiracy theories are always spread by posters that haven't a clue why the baht is so strong. Try a bit of due diligence before posting the oldest cliché in the TV treasure chest 

[Anton9]

1 hour ago, EvetsKram said:

Have you ever noticed that thailand only considers the hospitalised in their covid count, many many more cases but they don't count if suffering at home.  Kind of like the garbage road death figures

Do you know they hospitalize all those tested positive, even you are totally asymptomatic(majority) you will be put in hospital

 

[charmonman]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

No grants, no assistance of any kind. Everywhere I go income seems to be down. And yet the ridiculously timid army still refuses to come up with any tourism plan.

 

The Thai economy already had many issues prior to Covid. And the quality of tourism had been dropping for years. 

 

Now, ANY tourist, from ANY nation, should be allowed in, as long as they are willing to subject themselves to a 14 day jail sentence (quarantine), at their own expense. No other requirements or restrictions. Anything less is dumb, paranoid, sadistic and cavalier. 

I agree. A test on arrival, taken to a quarantine hotel, another test after two days, then release from quarantine with both test results negative. The risk of an imported case would be next to nothing. It would not revive mass tourism, but would allow the return of many of us whose lives are there but can’t currently get back in. That could be an economically significant number.

[charmonman]

1 hour ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

don't test = success ? 

check number of test per 1M population

While there is some truth that more tests identify more cases, it is also true that fewer cases will result in a need for fewer tests. Why test for a disease that is not widely circulating?

The US has one of the highest testing rates in the world mostly because so many people are presenting at hospitals with serious symptoms. South Korea currently has a fairly low testing rate because they have so few new infections. 

[Flying Saucage]

7 hours ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Once a country decides on a strategy then you have to stick with it, managed virus control or eradicate it. Thailand has chosen closed borders, no one will have a holiday there with 2 week quarantine, so either suffer the economic fallout with no tourists or open up with the risk of importing the virus. Less people are dying with it in Europe now even though infections are rising, smells like cr*p to me. Test on arrival and open everywhere up.

100% agree! Thailand governmant cultivates panic and paranoia, for political reasons. Even many expats living here obviously feel this unnecessary panic.

 

But: the official Thai numbers are not true, as all official number in Thailand are wrong. Thailand is well performing regarding Covid, similar to well performing countries is Europe. They would find about the same numbers here, if they would test and publish the results in a transparent way. Hence, they could follow the pragmatic European way, without any significant risc.

 

Open the borders, do tests before and after the flight, but get rid of the 14 days quarantine! Allow people to travel, let the economy recover!

 

I follow the number of Covid deaths in Germany: There are now between 4 and 6 per day in the recent days. In a country of 82 million! Put this in relation to the paranoia in Thailand. Hospitals and intensive care are available at any time in Europe. And no, there are not scores of bodies on the road, as they make Thais believe. No reason to panic, just stay alerted and follow the basic rules. Practice social distancing, wear a mask when shopping or in public transport. 

 

As the numbers in Thailand and European countries are similar (I am convinced about that, based on the number of excess deaths compared to 2019), opening the borders should be a possibility and not increase the risc significantliy, if at all.

 

My comments above are about Europe, not about the US or Brazil, however.

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[paulikens]

8 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Maybe you haven't noticed but there is no lockdown in Thailand...maybe you're referring to Australia, New Zealand, France, the UK, the States, and other places where the virus is still running rampant. 

@Pattaya Spotter rampant????????????????????????

[Scot123]

Reading the haters hating, they just cant help themselves. First the countries that are the targets of hate like the UK and USA let's make one thing clear their testing numbers are rising and then look at per capita deaths and you see how great these countries are doing. For a virus that the majority of people who get infected do not even know or the symptoms are so mild the whole thing is blown out of all proportions (get malaria or dengue and you know all about it). Looked at the death figure in the uk 5 minutes ago and screaming out for all to see is it's exactly the same as the annual flu death rate. The elephant in the room is the death rate of flu in the UK is now zero. What a shock. On a side my wife gets tested every week and is told that the tests are flawed and not accurate lots of false positives occurring. I also have a relative who works in the new tracking system office and she says they do nothing all day. She loves it. TAKE THE RED PILL FOR GOD SAKE.

[BLACKJACK2]

16 minutes ago, Scot123 said:

Looked at the death figure in the uk 5 minutes ago and screaming out for all to see is it's exactly the same as the annual flu death rate. The elephant in the room is the death rate of flu in the UK is now zero. What a shock.

UK has posted below average death rates for the last 7 weeks ????.

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

100% agree! Thailand governmant cultivates panic and paranoia, for political reasons. Even many expats living here obviously feel this unnecessary panic.

 

But: the official Thai numbers are not true, as all official number in Thailand are wrong. Thailand is well performing regarding Covid, similar to well performing countries is Europe. They would find about the same numbers here, if they would test and publish the results in a transparent way. Hence, they could follow the pragmatic European way, without any significant risc.

 

Open the borders, do tests before and after the flight, but get rid of the 14 days quarantine! Allow people to travel, let the economy recover!

 

I follow the number of Covid deaths in Germany: There are now between 4 and 6 per day in the recent days. In a country of 82 million! Put this in relation to the paranoia in Thailand. Hospitals and intensive care are available at any time in Europe. And no, there are not scores of bodies on the road, as they make Thais believe. No reason to panic, just stay alerted and follow the basic rules. Practice social distancing, wear a mask when shopping or in public transport. 

 

As the numbers in Thailand and European countries are similar (I am convinced about that, based on the number of excess deaths compared to 2019), opening the borders should be a possibility and not increase the risc significantliy, if at all.

 

My comments above are about Europe, not about the US or Brazil, however.

 

I feel absolutely no panic. I am not buying into the Zombie Apocalypse. Period. Not here. No domestic cases in 80 days and people are running around with masks and checking temps? When does it end? It is their paranoia. Not mine. The fear and timidity belongs to cowards. 

[Flying Saucage]

49 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I feel absolutely no panic. I am not buying into the Zombie Apocalypse. Period. Not here. No domestic cases in 80 days and people are running around with masks and checking temps? When does it end? It is their paranoia. Not mine. The fear and timidity belongs to cowards. 

 

Very good Spidermike! Nobody should panik! But, it's not only about you, and it's not only about Thailand. It's about others in the country, and about what the propaganda machinery here tells the people about the rest of the world.

 

Again:

 

1. The Thai government lies about everything. Everybody knows this. So it is given that they lie about the Covid numbers in Thailand as well. Simply obvious. The statistics about excess deaths give a better impression what really happens. No domestic Covid cases for 80 days is a fairytale. They don't test, and if they test, since end of February already they censor the numbers.
 

2. Nevertheless, to make ont thing clear, the Covid situation in Thailand is well under control! Partly due to the lockdown from March till May, partly due to the way of transmission of the virus by exhaled aerosoles. Wherever there is no AC in a closed room, people in Thailand open the windows, which strongly reduces the contamination in the air. And whereever there is an AC (my theory), the AC reduces the humidity, hence the aerosolse condensate, and the virus concentrations goes down as well. Both was not the case in Europe and other countries during winter time there. That's why the situation there was serious before. Nursery homes with closed windows and no AC, but with douzens of vulnerable old people having their lunch together in a closed room, as we have in the northern hemisphere during winter, they don't have in Thailand. Carneval parties or apres-ski parties in closed rooms? Not in Thailand. These are the real reasons for the success in Thailand.

 

3. The Thai government uses Covid as a political tool. To create panic and paranoia, to show the people that only they can control the crises, and to justify their emergency law. Quite successfuly they do this. So many Thais are panicking, asking to keep the borders closed, etc. And many expats follow suit these arguments and panic as well, demanding to keep the borders closded. BS!
 

4. But, with numbers of excess deaths in European countries now on par with those in Thailand, and with one digit number of people now dying per day from/with Covid in European coutries, the arguments of the Thai government regarding their Covid-policies are simply wrong. They only have political reasons for this! Again, there are no scores of bodies on the roads. Nowhere in Europe. And after the first disaster in Italy, Spain, UK in March and April, everthing is back to normal now. Borders and airports are open! People spend there holidays and their money now in Europe. 

 

I feel safe everywhere in Europe now, and would feel safe as well everywhere in South East Asia as well if I were there now. Nobody should believe the propaganda of this government here. It would be better if Thailand learns somethig from Europe now.
 

The growing numbers in Europe during the recent days are still far lower than they were before, and R is around 1 still. The governments in Europe handle everything in a very trnparent way. They are alerted now, and they warn the people. But this how it should be. It's now the dance after the hammer.  

 

Again, I do not talk about Brazil and the US, and not abour India and the Arab coutries. That's another story. And I am aware that Covid is a serious issue. When I was in Thailand last time February and March, other than many Thais, I used already good face masks whenever I was outside.

 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2020 by Flying Saucage

[Knocker33]

Shouldn't that be has not. Not may not