Thai tourist arrivals tumble 71% year-on-year in January-July amid outbreak

[Fex Bluse]

56 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Yesterday morning Thai domestic check in at swampy was absolutely mobbed, I only saw a couple of empty seats on our flight to Krabi.

In the afternoon I was sat having a beer opposite the Swordfish monument on Ao Nang front and in the space of half an hour 2 large tour coaches pulled up and were obviously full with the numbers running around taking pics.

In the evening another large coach discharged it's contents into our reception, couldn't move until they all checked in. Just over 750,000 nights have been booked under the government domestic tourist scheme so far.

Of course you are free to believe what you want, but you really need to get out a bit more.

Hi. Sorry, this is very common but poor thinking. Extrapolating based on an exceptionally narrow anecdote is not a robust thought process.

 

Just thinking it through logically, how many places were you NOT during your trip? How many places could you NOT see?

 

I think the point many of us make about Thai domestic tourists is that it is highly unlikely they will ever replace the foreign tourist spend. After all, Thailand has based a huge chunk (up to 30% and perhaps more if gray and black market activities are included) of their GDP on foreign tourism. If you can show me a business case for replacing those economics with Thai domestic tourists, I'll send to the government, and they may make you Thai Prime Minister.

[hotchilli]

1 hour ago, ChipButty said:

Where I live it's looking pretty desperate we do have a lot of long term expats live in this area so some places are doing ok but there is no tourist I see lots of hotels have not bothered to open

Considering the hurdles you have to jump to get here, then be quarantined for 14 days, numerous tests, tracking system etc tec... forget it.

Plus Thailand forgets something, just because you open the borders does not mean a stampede of people to get here... foreigners have their own issues, with work/money etc etc... and in 4 months it will be Xmas & New Year, they will be saving money to try and do something later with family and friends.

[dallen52]

2 hours ago, ChipButty said:

Where I live it's looking pretty desperate we do have a lot of long term expats live in this area so some places are doing ok but there is no tourist I see lots of hotels have not bothered to open

Sums it up pretty much. 

 

But these clowns still don't get it. 

Thousands of people like myself and just want to get back to Thailand, and like you support the Thai family and community. 

 

It's a no brainer. 

Throw in self quarantine and there's another 50,000 baht to be spent by the returnees.

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by dallen52

[ChipButty]

4 minutes ago, dallen52 said:

It's a no brainer. 

Throw in self quarantine and there's another 50,000 baht to be spent by the returnees.

 

It's a no brainer, It is here,

[dallen52]

1 hour ago, cracker1 said:

Kadilo, you ask "What tourists do they actually think will put up with this?"

The answer is Long stay tourists like me, who have been locked out of Thailand for many months, and who have lived there for many years.

Be less drain on the resources if they just openly said "give us 50,000 baht and you can come back".  

We all know what they are doing. 

 

[dallen52]

50 minutes ago, rskdev said:

And how much are the hotel rates you will be paying per night at the government picked hotels. Probably more than normal. They don't even say how much the room rates will be. Another way to fleece the tourist.

About 4500 a night averaged. 

There's already 3 in Phuket that are approved. 

The 3rd week is up to you.

Can go bargain basement. 

It's just a goodwill gesture for Phuket community. 

[toofarnorth]

2 hours ago, mike1967 said:

Now, that does sound like the south. Probably 200 baht to go 100 metres on a tuk tuk too. 

Sounds like America to me . I only pay for stuff here in Baht.

[rocketdave]

I live in Pattaya, some bars are open and struggling. We have a fair few expats who live here but we can't support all the bars. Some whole beer bar complexes have shut down never to reopen.

[spidermike007]

Pipat needs to be replaced within the next 24 hours. If the toxic army cared one iota about the Thai people, they would be searching for a competent and creative mind to lead the tourism ministry, rather than this mental midget. 

 

ALL people from ALL nations should be allowed to come, as long as they are willing to subject themselves to quarantine. Period. No other requirements or restrictions. No heinous, punitive, or humiliating requests for permission from the overseas consulates. Who are we? Kids begging for play time? Or tourists willing to spend a bundle to help save Thailand's economy? 

 

This is the time for the arrogant ministers and members of this toxic administration to be humble. Is this possible? Is this not a reality check and a wake up call? Are these guys capable of learning and adapting? 

[Darkside Gray]

Its time Thailand realised that the long term expats working overseas and living in Thailand are a main piece of the tourist income and are pumping huge amounts of foriegn earnings into the country but are not allowed back to see their families, Forget the hair brained schemes for the holidaying tourist, let the working expats back in and quarantine in their homes!

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

I wonder if there statistics on tourists are not a little off. Do they add in arrivals to all of the airports only on international flights and only those that have come from out of the country and through immigration. Or are they adding in all people at all airports. Case in point, I fly into BKK and then fly the next day to Udon Thani, exit into Laos and return the next day. Am I counted 3 times, 2 times or just once.  Its still just me, so in reality I am the same tourist.  If I went back and forth across the border to shop in Laos or Cambodia, but had a 30 day hotel here, and did these trips 15 times would they count me 15 times. The answer is yes, so the stats are skewed. Just like a Non Imm O ME visa holder who border bounces 4 times during the year but lives here with his wife and kids, he is counted 4 times.

If you hold a Non-O visa you are not counted as a tourist at all.

Believe it or not, only tourist visa holders are counted as tourists.

All others, diplomats, business, Elite, etc. are excluded. 

 

June July 2020 Arrivals.xlsx

[Ireland32]

Stop these repetitive post about Tourist Numbers , There are No Tourist Geezus 

[Sydebolle]

Let tourism czar Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn keep on dreaming.

"Two million foreign visitors were expected between October and March, as other parts of the country adopt similar arrangements to Phuket."

11'100 new arrivals, every single day, in Phuket? Take 15% away going through the ordeal at Swampi or Don Meuaoiung airports; still leaves 9'400+ tourist arrivals - each an every day until end of March. 

It might help to open the borders in a controlled and professional matter; why should I spend two weeks in an overpriced quarantine, then be restricted to Phuket under further conditions for another week. The average stay of a tourist is not three weeks but less than a week - go figure. 

[brucec64]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I wonder if there statistics on tourists are not a little off. Do they add in arrivals to all of the airports only on international flights and only those that have come from out of the country and through immigration. Or are they adding in all people at all airports. Case in point, I fly into BKK and then fly the next day to Udon Thani, exit into Laos and return the next day. Am I counted 3 times, 2 times or just once.  Its still just me, so in reality I am the same tourist.  If I went back and forth across the border to shop in Laos or Cambodia, but had a 30 day hotel here, and did these trips 15 times would they count me 15 times. The answer is yes, so the stats are skewed. Just like a Non Imm O ME visa holder who border bounces 4 times during the year but lives here with his wife and kids, he is counted 4 times.

Every country calculates the arrivals the same way. It's a bit of brute force method, but also the simplest. The more important number to look at is change in arrivals from year to year. You can assume that the distribution of arrival types - multiple arrivals by same person, transit, border bounces, stays about the same, so the year on year increase (or decrease) of tourists gives a valid number.

[the green light]

3 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

Why would they need a Tourist Minister? 

no tourism = no minister of tourism

send him to quarantine with 10 girls

[brucec64]

1 hour ago, Fex Bluse said:

Hi. Sorry, this is very common but poor thinking. Extrapolating based on an exceptionally narrow anecdote is not a robust thought process.

 

Just thinking it through logically, how many places were you NOT during your trip? How many places could you NOT see?

 

I think the point many of us make about Thai domestic tourists is that it is highly unlikely they will ever replace the foreign tourist spend. After all, Thailand has based a huge chunk (up to 30% and perhaps more if gray and black market activities are included) of their GDP on foreign tourism. If you can show me a business case for replacing those economics with Thai domestic tourists, I'll send to the government, and they may make you Thai Prime Minister.

There are a couple of things to consider. There is an increase in domestic tourist income because Thais are not spending money on overseas trips, and, more importantly, the domestic tourism distributes income to the hardest hit tourism areas. It may not be enough to generate profits for all tourist businesses, but may help some of the stronger businesses survive until international tourism starts up again, and provide some jobs to Thais in the tourist industry. 

[Bender Rodriguez]

covid shows there are many FLUFF jobs and maybe people might consider what is really important in life

[P100]

2 hours ago, cracker1 said:

Kadilo, you ask "What tourists do they actually think will put up with this?"

The answer is Long stay tourists like me, who have been locked out of Thailand for many months, and who have lived there for many years.

I don't think authorities eye at those! They have always neglected long time stayers. They are just too stupid to see that only those will come in who are locked out since covid. They who live in Thailand and must find a way back home. They are no tourists, they are residents on forced one year tourist visa. I would wait a month or 2 longer. After reality hits and they finally realize how few arrivals they have (and admit the root cause) they will change the entry policy ... Then I will return too if, no civil unrest broke out...

Edited August 25, 2020 by P100

[newnative]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I wonder if there statistics on tourists are not a little off. Do they add in arrivals to all of the airports only on international flights and only those that have come from out of the country and through immigration. Or are they adding in all people at all airports. Case in point, I fly into BKK and then fly the next day to Udon Thani, exit into Laos and return the next day. Am I counted 3 times, 2 times or just once.  Its still just me, so in reality I am the same tourist.  If I went back and forth across the border to shop in Laos or Cambodia, but had a 30 day hotel here, and did these trips 15 times would they count me 15 times. The answer is yes, so the stats are skewed. Just like a Non Imm O ME visa holder who border bounces 4 times during the year but lives here with his wife and kids, he is counted 4 times.

     The statistics may be 'skewed' but if TAT uses the same counting methodology year after year it doesn't really matter if you are just looking at the number of arrivals.  The arrivals have been increasing each year except for a decrease in 2009 and 2014.  When fewer people arrived that was reflected in those two years.  I can't speak for other places but Pattaya was very busy in 2019.  

[alyx]

41 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

If you hold a Non-O visa you are not counted as a tourist at all.

Believe it or not, only tourist visa holders are counted as tourists.

All others, diplomats, business, Elite, etc. are excluded. 

 

June July 2020 Arrivals.xlsx 415.05 kB · 3 downloads

Why would Thailandelite members not included? They are definitely tourists.

Further more they are on the chart you provided, no?

[jerolamo]

I think, right now we can collect everything journal paper they publish with unreal ridiculous content.

It will be some collectors articles, because soon it should have a market value...

 

[verticalift]

Over the past five months, I’ve been hearing that the doors will re-open for “Tourists”. Question: What about the rest of us...???

 

I have “lived” in Thailand for over the past 20+ years when not at work overseas in Abu Dhabi, where I have been employed as a pilot flying helicopters to the offshore oil platforms.
 

For the past 17 years I have “owned” my home, with my name in the Tambian Baan Yellow Book. I have Thai ID Pink Card, as well as a recently minted Non-Imm O-X 10 year Retirement Visa....... but yet, since the lockdowns were implemented, I have been unable to return “home”. 
 

Commuting and working between different countries is something that now ceases to exist not just for myself, but for may other expats due quarantine restrictions worldwide.
 

Mandatory 2 week quarantine issues aside, Thai Embassies around the world still classify foreign home owners as “Tourists”. No amount of investment capital will change that.

 

Based in Abu Dhabi, I was recently advised by my employer that I am being “Retired”....... Well %#£%,  I wasn’t expecting that kick in the face. Suck it up and deal with it......

 

So........ like many other expats (Not Tourists) around the world waiting to go home to Thailand, I sit and wait......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 25, 2020 by verticalift
Typo

[vandeventer]

I live in Northern Thailand and believe me finding a tourist is like is like finding

a 100 baht note on the side walk. Just maybe after a new vaccine comes out things

might start to open,as long as the vaccine don't come from China we might be ok.

 

[Fex Bluse]

48 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

There are a couple of things to consider. There is an increase in domestic tourist income because Thais are not spending money on overseas trips, and, more importantly, the domestic tourism distributes income to the hardest hit tourism areas. It may not be enough to generate profits for all tourist businesses, but may help some of the stronger businesses survive until international tourism starts up again, and provide some jobs to Thais in the tourist industry. 

Agree that there are many things to consider. 

 

I would bet the downward pressure of job losses, depressed incomes for those still working and hard hit exports to be dull the relatively small Thai domestic tourism spend for now. 

 

At any rate, without the actual data, we are all just speculating. The reveal will be whether the government is still crying and begging daily for foreign tourism solutions as they have been for the last 6 months. 

[Mayhem11]

8 hours ago, lkv said:

Tourism was going downhill pre covid, because of the extortionate prices, scams, ripoffs and so on. Which is even more obvious in a place like Phuket.

 

So when the almost zero arrivals exit the prison, imagine the price gouging. Rip off in the resort, rip off outside the resort.

 

1 km taxi 1,000 baht, and 500 baht beers sound decent. After all, the locals have been hungry for quite a few months now.

 

That's if you manage to go inside the bar, they might not let you in because of your skin colour.

 

Precovid, people smiling at you (fake smiles but still), now looking at you suspiciously.

 

Sounds wonderful, I cannot wait.

 

On a different note, Crete in September has rates starting at USD 25 p/n, and some 4-5 star accomodations in the range of USD 70-100 p/n that look amazing.

 

They want ONE prior covid test done in my home country (here the cost is EUR 60). Plus flight EUR 80-100 return.

 

Tough choice.

A person of like mind. Patong is the worst for rip offs. Even Grab drivers trying to gouge money hundreds of Baht over the posted fare. Went there at XMAS. Never again. Now Crete is one of my favourite Greek islands.

Edited August 25, 2020 by Mayhem11

[JusticeGB]

A person working one hour a week for there parent's farm is considered employed so I doubt that non-O Visa returnees are excluded from TAT figures. In fact I have never seen the methodology of the counting of tourist arrivals. Even now they are using a seven month period to avoid stating that arrivals for July are 99% down.

[Millcx]

8 hours ago, Kadilo said:

It’s hard to feel any sympathy for their predicament when they continue with their hare-brained schemes convincing themselves that people who don’t want to go to Phuket are going to put up with being quarantined in a hotel for 2 weeks. 
 

Then have to stay another week just to squeeze a bit more out of you before you can move on. Add to that the 2 weeks when they get back, that’s five weeks wasted before you have your holiday. What tourists do they actually think will put up with this?
 

For sure, there will be a few desperate souls who will pay and put up with anything to see their Teerak once again and stay for a few months but 2 million? Even if they do extend it to other areas I can’t see those numbers. 
 

Get real. 

It’s a cert Brits and Aussies won’t as the will have to add a further 2 weeks on to their isolation on return too

best Thailand can hope for will be a few business people with Thai commitments and nothing more

With the rules being put in place then can’t see much more than a few euros coming in .. Certainly not sightseers

[Caldera]

This percentage drop is meaningless and will continue to approach 100% as long as they don't reopen the borders to tourism. Meh.

[Magenta408]

OK, noted. Now what will you do about it? What will the WHO and those doling out the bucks permit you? What will the revolving grand-poobahs, talking heads and gurus of gurus allow you? OPEN. Save your people.

[ExpatOilWorker]

56 minutes ago, alyx said:

Why would Thailandelite members not included? They are definitely tourists.

Further more they are on the chart you provided, no?

Only column "I" and "AD" are counted as tourists by TAT.

Using numbers from a relative normal months, January  2020, these two groups represent 89.3% of all foreign arrivals.

Elite holders were less than 0.01%.