I've seen the grim reality of Thailand without tourists – and it isn't pretty

[Eindhoven]

1 hour ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

 

What are you thinking? Did you read what you wrote?

 

18% of GDP and not vital?? 4,000,000 people out of work and not vital??

7 people thanked you because they live in a bubble where they are not affected.

 

Just because you don't see the suffering doesn't mean that no one is suffering. Some people will take advantage of the situation, buying up assets cheap, but that doesn't mean that millions are not suffering because of the collapse of the tourism industry.

[DaLa]

7 minutes ago, Eindhoven said:

 

Your numbers relate to ten of thousands, not millions and single industries. Tourism covers a much wider area than steel making. We just bought cheaper steel from elsewhere.

I think your comparisons are not appropriate, in this instance.

 

 

Yes , I agree the numbers are overall smaller. And yes we did buy steel from other countries that then cost the UK through lack of export revenue. However the impact on certain areas were devastating, just as the lack of tourists is hitting the likes of Pattaya here.  I'm in no way suggesting this is easy for anyone in the tourist business here and I would welcome a quick return to relative normality. I spend a few days each month down in Cha Am and have noticed the girly bar area is almost dead, but the beach at the weekend, the market and overall business has resumed to a degree.

My point was that loosing your business or having a major economic driver change in your industry is not unique.

 

[Henryford]

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

Two lights at the end of the tunnel.....a very effective vaccine and a weakening baht.....otherwise "we are all doomed".

The baht will never weaken while the western economies are printing trillions of funny money. If anything it will strengthen when the Dollar/Pound/Euro is worth as much as toilet paper.

[vinny41]

11 minutes ago, Eindhoven said:

 

What are you thinking? Did you read what you wrote?

 

18% of GDP and not vital?? 4,000,000 people out of work and not vital??

7 people thanked you because they live in a bubble where they are not affected.

 

Just because you don't see the suffering doesn't mean that no one is suffering. Some people will take advantage of the situation, buying up assets cheap, but that doesn't mean that millions are not suffering because of the collapse of the tourism industry.

Total Tourism is approx 18% of GDP including domestic Tourism, International incoming Tourism accounts for between 7-9% of GDP at the moment Thai's that used to go overseas for the vacation's are more than likely to spend their vacation time in Thailand

which will reduce the impact of international tourism down to 5-7% of GDP

[Somtamnication]

1 hour ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

Where did you get those stats from? It is much larger than that in tourist areas. No one is talking about mountain locations.

[Surelynot]

1 hour ago, connda said:

On the bright side?  It will be wonderful this high-season to head out to tour Thailand and have most of the tourist spots all to ourselves - deserted beaches?  Perfect!

OMG. YES! Enjoying every minute of it, whilst appreciating the hard times it brings to the Thai nation. 

 

Generous tipping is my tiny way of compensating them

[Surelynot]

20 minutes ago, Eindhoven said:

 

What are you thinking? Did you read what you wrote?

 

18% of GDP and not vital?? 4,000,000 people out of work and not vital??

7 people thanked you because they live in a bubble where they are not affected.

 

Just because you don't see the suffering doesn't mean that no one is suffering. Some people will take advantage of the situation, buying up assets cheap, but that doesn't mean that millions are not suffering because of the collapse of the tourism industry.

SPOT ON

[Chelseafan]

1 hour ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

 

I somewhat disagree on this. Tourist money filters through the economy in ways we don't even think about. That restaurant that's just closed down has now put people out of work, it's reduced the income of a wholesaler and in turn reduced the income of food processors/farms so more jobs lost at a local level.

What Thailand should be doing is taking this opportunity to wean themselves off the Tourism drug.

 

[steven100]

repeat , wash , rinse ... how many time do we hear this senario being played out.

We know it's bad news here in Thailand,  same same everywhere else in the world. 

[kingofthemountain]

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

You are missing the point.....that tourism money flows into the government coffers.....if it stops you will all be worse off regardless of how little you have been affected currently......funds will either not be available or you will have to pay more tax.

You are missing the point too

Thailand has a very large leeway

VAT is only 7% and the public debt is under 35%

in my country of origin (France) VAT is 19% and public debt is 100%

it's the same thing (Or even worse) in almost all the western ''rich''

countries where everybody seems to think everything is ok

Edited August 28, 2020 by kingofthemountain

[Chelseafan]

7 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

You are missing the point too

Thailand has a very large leeway

VAT is only 7% and the public debt is under 35%

in my country of origin (France) VAT is 19% and public debt is 100%

it the same thing in almost all the western ''rich'' countries where

everybody seems to think everything is ok

 

Thailands public debt is nearer 51%. The Government has had to borrow $18.6b for Covid. The difference is that whilst Thailands debt is still manageable, it could spiral out of control very quickly if they cannot restart the Tourism industry

 

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by Chelseafan

[2long]

1 hour ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

Just not ever seeing a tourist doesn't mean that they're not affected but the absence. Family members working in cities send money home. That's just one example of an indirect benefit or reliance on tourism.

Would YOU be willing to take an 18% hit on your income?

[rumak]

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

The money might not feed directly to them in a rural economy, but where do you think the money comes from for schools, roads, hospitals?....18% is a huge blow to every part of the Thai economy.

First of all.... kudos to the writer for not saying anything trite and actually presenting a pretty darn good

assessment of the situation ( i am in CM  and he is right on about the complete lack of tourists here).

On one hand I shout   great !   nice to be back to the good old days.   Tourism does, and IMO has spoiled many of the nice things I remember from "the good ole days" .   Gone are the obnoxious ( small percent, but always noticeable)  ones that flock to the hot spots.

Also the rampant increase in condos and shopping malls has hit a snag. Not such a bad thing.

But there is, to be honest,  a distinct pullback in the economy....not affecting govt employees or

expats with nice pensions....  but some honest people have lost their businesses,  and the rental

market is C*** !    I know..... one house lies empty,  the other long term tenant can not get back from

overseas.

Maybe a case of "can not have your cake and eat it too" .    hmmmmmmm

Still, my vote goes to open things up in a sensible way.  Pretty obvious that the hoops being set up by the govt.  have a lot to do with some people profiting.    As always

 

[BritManToo]

15 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

You are missing the point too

Thailand has a very large leeway

VAT is only 7% and the public debt is under 35%

in my country of origin (France) VAT is 19% and public debt is 100%

it's the same thing (Or even worse) in almost all the western ''rich''

countries where everybody seems to think everything is ok

Thailand doesn't provide welfare, VAT/tax is more in the west to fund welfare.

[ThailandRyan]

I did not retire here in Thailand based upon its Tourism.  I moved to live here because I could relax and not have to keep up with the rat race called the USA where its 24 hour service industry just never stops.  Sometimes you just need to get of the merry go round and enjoy life.  I understand the need for Tourism to keep people employed and to assist in moving the economy.  Thailand put to many eggs in its basket and relied on tourism which the model they used was ever changing and unsustainable.  Time for Thailand to find something else that creates a new niche which will bring in Money.  Plenty of locations to set up a mini silicon valley if they want.  I do remember the floods that devastated some of that industry here and forced things to gravitate elsewhere.  This government needs to stop driving potential businesses away with the taxation and the age old issue of being 51% Thai owned.  They always want to be someone's little brother instead of taking the leap into the playground.  Tourism became its bread and butter, but they burnt that bread awhile ago when they decided to build the industry around a certain few countries.  The xenophobic attitude towards foreigners needs to stop, and there better than anyone else attitude needs to be put in check.  Time to loose "Face" and admit they are backwards, grovel for people to startup businesses here, relax the residence requirements for those married to its citizens and give out a true residence card for those that pass the smell test.

 

Time for the country to be transparent and be led by a true democratic government with no intervention from above or the military.

[BritManToo]

Just now, rumak said:

First of all.... kudos to the writer for not saying anything trite and actually presenting a pretty darn good

assessment of the situation ( i am in CM  and he is right on about the complete lack of tourists here).

On one hand I shout   great !   nice to be back to the good old days.   Tourism does, and IMO has spoiled many of the nice things I remember from "the good ole days" .   Gone are the obnoxious ( small percent, but always noticeable)  ones that flock to the hot spots.

Was out walking in the Jungle with a Thai lady (early 50s) In CM who owns a tourism company, hasn't had any work for 7 months now. Her company used to operate trips to Japan for Thai people and make a good profit.

[cyril sneer]

was going to happen eventually, covid or not

[Disparate Dan]

22 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

VAT is only 7% and the public debt is under 35%

in my country of origin (France) VAT is 19% and public debt is 100%

VAT in France is 20 not 19 percent (and 10 for restaurants and some other service industries)....

[Nout]

2 hours ago, Surelynot said:

Strong baht, Fit to Fly letter, visas, covid certificate, quarantine, phone tracking, health insurance, tax on leaving, dual pricing, restricted travel.....add this to reduced incomes tourists now suffer and general concerns over health and safety issues even before covid......tourism is dead in the water.

Tourism is only a direct issue for Pattya   Phuket and CM etc but most Thais in Issan or the south never see foreigners.

[Nout]

36 minutes ago, Somtamnication said:

Where did you get those stats from? It is much larger than that in tourist areas. No one is talking about mountain locations.

Issan is not a mountain location. Its is agrarian with a population of over 20 million people who never see foreigners.

[Chelseafan]

2 minutes ago, Nout said:

Tourism is only a direct issue for Pattya   Phuket and CM etc but most Thais in Issan or the south never see foreigners.

 

Money still trickles downward through the economy.

The south sees plenty of foreigners, it's just that they are Malays

 

 

[Chelseafan]

1 minute ago, Nout said:

Issan is not a mountain location. Its is agrarian with a population of over 20 million people who never see foreigners.

 

Not true. They see me all the time!

[Chivas]

As I said here a couple days ago if Thailand is suffering so much why are its Foreign Currency Reserves at record levels and now the 8th highest in the World having increased another $30 Billion since February to sit at over $250 Billion in total......

[kingofthemountain]

1 hour ago, Chelseafan said:

Thailands public debt is nearer 51%. The Government has had to borrow $18.6b for Covid. The difference is that whilst Thailands debt is still manageable, it could spiral out of control very quickly if they cannot restart the Tourism industry

Even at 51% it's more than manageable

how many years before to be at 100% or more ?

They have the time to find alternatives solutions.

 

They borrow money only because they want

they could print money or use a part of the tons of foreign reserves

but doing this the Baht should be weakened, and a weaker baht is good

for exportations and tourism, but not when you are busy buying expensives

military toys in China or if you are a wealthy Thai putting your assets in safety

places in europe or USA.

 

Don't forget Thai politic is not intended to make Thai people feel better

the country is runned like a private corporation in charge of the interests

of the 0,1% of the richest Thai people 

Edited August 28, 2020 by kingofthemountain

[rumak]

24 minutes ago, cyril sneer said:

was going to happen eventually, covid or not

explain please.........

[rumak]

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

OMG. YES! Enjoying every minute of it, whilst appreciating the hard times it brings to the Thai nation. 

i think you could have found a better word than "appreciating" ........  but i get what you meant

[ThailandRyan]

28 minutes ago, Nout said:

Issan is not a mountain location. Its is agrarian with a population of over 20 million people who never see foreigners.

rarely see foreigners, get that part straight.  I lived in Udon Thani, Nong Saeng, Wang Sam Mo, Sakon Nakon, and Khon Kaen, many foreigners living in the provinces not many tourists visiting except the larger cities.

[kingofthemountain]

34 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Thailand doesn't provide welfare, VAT/tax is more in the west to fund welfare.

It's not completely true

of course the welfare in Thailand is very far from the ones in the west

but at some point there is a welfare existing, the 30 bahts health scheme

the pension paid monthly to old people and the disabled, free state schools

and even a financial help for the ones losing their jobs.

 

''Up to four million formal workers affected by the Covid-19 pandemic are expected to apply for unemployment benefits, says the Social Security Office.

Spokeswoman Pitsamai Nithipaiboon said 1.2 million formal workers had registered for unemployment benefits as of Tuesday, and 500,000 had been examined and verified. Ms Pitsamai said the office anticipates the number of applicants to soar to between 3 million-4 million if the Covid-19 situation worsens.

A total of 11 million workers are insured under Section 33 of the Social Security Act, while about two million do not qualify for unemployment benefits because they have been contributing to the social security fund for less than six months, she said. The rate for formal workers amounts to 62% of daily wages and the maximum compensation period is capped at 90 days. About 8,000 jobless workers received their first payment on Monday.

 

Ms Pitsamai said that while unemployment benefits during the Covid-19 pandemic can be handed out for up to six months, the SSO will stop making payments when workers are able to return to work. "This is not a one-time payment," she said. "The compensation is paid monthly.''

 

[rumak]

38 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Was out walking in the Jungle with a Thai lady (early 50s) In CM who owns a tourism company, hasn't had any work for 7 months now. Her company used to operate trips to Japan for Thai people and make a good profit.

 

[BritManToo]

16 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

It's not completely true

of course the welfare in Thailand is very far from the ones in the west

but at some point there is a welfare existing, the 30 bahts health scheme

the pension paid monthly to old people and the disabled, free state schools

and even a financial help for the ones losing their jobs.

Not being American, I've never thought of free health care as welfare, it's available to rich and poor alike in most civilised countries.

Is government schooling welfare?, I don't think so as it's equally available to both rich and poor.

Oddly enough the Thai 'free state schools' aren't all that free any more, under Prayut the charges at my local government school have risen from nothing to 6kbht/term.

 

Welfare, is something you get when 

1) you are poor (and female)

2) you haven't contributed anything

And is usually only available for women (single parents) and their kids, although the occasional man may qualify.

I've always found it a bit odd that most men don't understand welfare is essentially a system designed to take from men, to give to women in a gynocentric society.

 

Thai government SS is more of a government run insurance IMHO.

Edited August 28, 2020 by BritManToo