I've seen the grim reality of Thailand without tourists – and it isn't pretty

[Raphael54]

8 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

Complete nonsense indeed. 

The rural economy is heavily supported by the non-rural (city) economy with large cash transfers.  The tourism sector has many linkages into the rest of the economy with lots of multiplier effects.  The rural economy will suffer badly without tourism.  And, by the way, tourism is way bigger than agriculture. In GDP terms agriculture is only about 8 percent compared to tourism's 18 (??) percent. In employment terms agriculture is bigger than tourism but a lot is seasonal and part-time employment and being supplemented by non-agricultural sources of income, including tourism.  In foreign exchange terms tourism brings in about one-fifth of all foreign exchange.  In the short-term this is not an issue but longer term it could become.   

[Partenavia]

Most seem to be concentrating their comments on Tourism, however, there was an interesting article in the UK Telegraph yesterday which was talking about manufacturing. Initially this has not been impacted a great deal, but the lack of orders coming through now for cars/trucks is causing a reduction in manufacturing. All the main car manufacturers in Japan are seeing this, complete factories are being ear marked for closure. 

 

If I recall correctly car purchase in Thailand has already been reduced by 18-25%. So despite what the government are saying about the economy bottoming out, the full effects of Covid have still a long way to go, so I see far more impact in manufacturing later in the year or early next.

[BritManToo]

57 minutes ago, Redline said:

They don't retrain in Thailand.  Once one finishes schooling, for the most part, they are done.  There are very few older people in school because it's not "right" for people to go back because that means they made a mistake, or didn't try hard enough to succeed~another saving face situation.

 

I know very few Thai people that learn anything on their spare time.  I do know some, but mostly they play social media, watch dramas, and play games.

That's an odd thing to say as every Amphur runs free weekend high-school for people who missed out, courses are always nearly full. And they're very popular with Thai women of all ages that didn't get the chance to attend first time round.

If you graduate weekend high-school you are assured a university place at a Rajabhat university.

I've known many of the ladies who attended.

One woman in her 70s was at CMRU a couple of years back, taking her degree.

[Wavel]

9 hours ago, Surelynot said:

The money might not feed directly to them in a rural economy, but where do you think the money comes from for schools, roads, hospitals?....18% is a huge blow to every part of the Thai economy.

Tourism in Thailand is approx 11% GDP same as the UK not 18%. I have lived here for 20 years, never seen a tourist Thank God. The roads & hospitals are a lot better here than in the UK. This year the whole world has changed not just Thailand. Tourists only go to a few isolated areas & sure a lot of people & businesses will suffer but damage the nation I think not. If the government staves off on buying a couple of submarines 

[hotandsticky]

15 minutes ago, Wavel said:

Tourism in Thailand is approx 11% GDP same as the UK not 18%. I have lived here for 20 years, never seen a tourist Thank God. The roads & hospitals are a lot better here than in the UK. This year the whole world has changed not just Thailand. Tourists only go to a few isolated areas & sure a lot of people & businesses will suffer but damage the nation I think not. If the government staves off on buying a couple of submarines 

 

Do you have a reference for that understated figure of 11%....... otherwise it looks like you are just plucking figures out of the air.

[moe666]

10 hours ago, pixelaoffy said:

What a nonsensical comment ' only 18% GDP' ! Its massively important and it's not 18 it's nearer 15% and maintains millions of jobs and produces taxes for Gov

People miss the point for every baht that is spent by a tourist, that bhat goes out and buys beers for the bar to sale, that money goes to the workers to buy food pay rent and so on. If the tourist isn't here he has a far reaching affect thru out the economy.

[kickstart]

8 hours ago, blackcab said:

 

To put it into perspective, rural locations in Thailand produce almost all of the agricultural goods. Agricultural goods generate about 8 per cent of GDP.

The world average is 10.46% ,but the other problem is farmers  may provide the country's  food .but very few pay any tax.or very little tax , so  as for  farmers contributing to schools ,heath service etc that would be   minimal.

The tax from the  18% of GDP from tourism ,would provide more to the government coffers, than agriculture would . 

[VBF]

4 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

seriously mate

 

you should looking for some help and talk with someone

He doesn't need to  - he's having a deep conversation with the voices in his head!

[BritManToo]

26 minutes ago, kickstart said:

so  as for  farmers contributing to schools

My local free government school extorts 6k/term from the parents.

This is new since Prayut came to power.

Can't imagine farmers get to pay less.

[Jenkins9039]

11 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

Was at Kata Beach the other day, was rammed, rammed with Thai's ! 

 

They're happy to have their country back, think about it, only 300k people in Phuket are Phuket Thai's, the rest are imports, so thats roughly 140k working age, they can get jobs else where, or change their industries in Phuket, the imports can work back in the North and the South in different industries.

 

Brother in law and cousins of the wife, in the South and Bkk are all booming currently.

[rumak]

7 hours ago, rattlesnake said:

Largely untrue. Most rural families depend on money sent by their children who work in the city (often BKK but not always) and no foreigners are involved.

I lived in a rural area 70 km from CM.   There it was true that many (seemed like a majority) of the grown children did go to work in the city.   Either Lamphun, Chomtong, or Chiangmai.   Some of course to BKK or elsewhere.    That is the sign of the times ( in other countries too, no ?)

 

It is true also, that some cities have much more of a tourist presence than others.  I think we all know which ones........ and so there is a greater impact there.    But there is some impact.  Wonder what will happen to all the lost businesses in those places?    

[DrTuner]

1 hour ago, Jenkins9039 said:

They're happy to have their country back, think about it, only 300k people in Phuket are Phuket Thai's, the rest are imports, so thats roughly 140k working age, they can get jobs else where, or change their industries in Phuket, the imports can work back in the North and the South in different industries.

There's nowhere near as easy money as in ripping off tourists in other industries though. Well, perhaps P4P for locals.

[Zikomat]

8 hours ago, from the home of CC said:

Yes it seems to be primarily the foreigners who think Thailand lives or dies with tourists. It is my opinion that in the long run they may find themselves a lot happier not having to babysit drunks and sex customers. There will be some adjustment pains with the easy money disappearing but they will come out of it stronger and will be a better country for their children to grow up in..

 Yes. We have spoilt them with the easy money. Now let them go back to earning 200 baht per working day in the rice fields. This will surely make all those former Pattaya girls happy. And STRONGER (physically). With those ‘huge’ salaries they will definitely make their children happier too. Thanks God for these Covid troubles.
 

 

Edited August 28, 2020 by Zikomat

[kingofthemountain]

22 minutes ago, Zikomat said:

Now let them go back to earning 200 baht per working day in the rice fields.

If i am not wrong It's 300 since already few years 

 

i am not sure the recent legal increase of

few bahts has been effective in the ricefields.

 

( Maybe 320\day now? )

 

Anyway i don't see the bar girls going to work in the ricefields

most of them are definitively too lazy for that and that was the

reason they were working in a bar in the first place

Edited August 28, 2020 by kingofthemountain

[SupermarineS6B]

15 hours ago, Pilotman said:

Think on this, over 40 million Thais live in rural locations that never see a tourist and don't need them for their local economy.  Don't get tourism out of proportion.  It is less than 18% of GDP and not absolutely vital to Thailand. Watch this space. It may all virtually end and I dont think that many Thais will cry any tears if it does. At the very least, it may be confined to a few restricted areas only, such as Phuket and Pattaya. 

Rubbish........ Isaan's been fed by tourists / foreigners for years, where do you think all those houses and pick ups come from, picking rice ?   Just had a call last night from Isaan from an old girlfriend of mine in tears, asking when all this madness will stop as we're all skint, no business, no tourists, NO FARANGS !...... Oh yeah, "Thais won't cry any tears"..........  Back on the plane mate...... 

[BritManToo]

5 hours ago, kingofthemountain said:

If i am not wrong It's 300 since already few years 

 

i am not sure the recent legal increase of

few bahts has been effective in the ricefields.

 

( Maybe 320\day now? )

 

 

Amazed you think anyone apart from big corporation pays minimum wage, and tax, and social security.

News flash .......... Rice farmers pay 150-200bht to people in the fields.

[tonray]

It will never go back to the way it was. But the tourist demographic can and will change. I sometimes walk around the JJ Market, JJ Mall and MIXT Mall areas which in normal times would be loaded with foreigners and few Thais on the weekends. Now the weekend market venues are getting crowds of people....but they are Thais who used to avoid the market because of all the tourists. Markets and economies are dynamic and can change, there will be short and mid term upheaval. The farang centric pub and sex vendors will wither and die, but maybe that's not really a bad thing.

 

The fact is that the economic engine of Thailand has always been the rich and the working professionals. The majority of the population lives within a subsutence economy and that can only be changed with decades of educational reforms and opening up the economy and the currency to global markets.

 

Same for areas like Hua Hin, spent a weekend end of July, the farang centric tourist venues dead, but the higher end beach resorts packed to the gills with well heeled Thai tourists. Tourism is near 20% of the economy but is by no means the death knell for the country if it does not recover 100%, because Thais make up some % of that anyway and are taking a larger share already

Edited August 28, 2020 by tonray

[BritManToo]

42 minutes ago, tonray said:

Same for areas like Hua Hin, spent a weekend end of July, the farang centric tourist venues dead, but the higher end beach resorts packed to the gills with well heeled Thai tourists. Tourism is near 20% of the economy but is by no means the death knell for the country if it does not recover 100%, because Thais make up some % of that anyway and are taking a larger share already

Would point out most countries thrive of foreign exchange.

Circulating money already in the country isn't the same at all.

 

But maybe you're right and the world would be a better place if every country became a self sufficient island, only consuming what they can produce.

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by BritManToo

[ThailandRyan]

To be honest the tourism I have observed recently comes in 2 subsets. The first subset are the families who are definitely on a budget and enjoy what they can, while the other are those that can spend freely and enjoy the higher end properties.  In June, July, and August I have spent a total of 4 weeks between Phuket, Chiang Mai, and Chiang Rai.  Never going on a holiday weekend mind you. The higher end locations we stayed at had about 10% or slight more customers, where when we traveled to the same locations 1 year ago they were at 80% to 90% of capacity. Enjoyed this year immensely in those locations because of not having to fight the breakfast venues ques and the prices this year were half of what we spent last year.  Have booked a few more trips through the site I use and most are now all inclusive but then you always pay for extras.  Yes tourism as it was known is dead, but it's still available, just with fewer folks who can afford it.  You used to see the lower end families at venues before, but they are fewer now because of budgetary issues and unemployment.  Not sure how to fix that problem.  The hotels here in Bangkok that shut down in Late March with an eye on reopening in September are still shuttered with unknown reopening dates. Yet around the Sathorn and Silom Areas there is still massive building of new hotels and condos ongoing. Something is not quite right in that respect.

Edited August 29, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[Stargeezr]

Thailand is a tropical country that has high and low seasons for tourists who are not from

Thailand. The local Thais who are now considered domestic tourists, do not all have

the riches that the foreign tourists have. There are only so many rich Thais who regularly

stay in the high end hotels etc. The tourist industry may only be 18 or 20 percent of the

GDP, but just what is the percentage of people who work in the tourist industry or have a business

that helped support the tourist industry, like a local hotel, or restaurant or bar , pub, lounge

shopping centre. etc? I will bet the percentage of the population that are affected by the

collapse of the international tourist being gone, is huge. Industries that make up a large part of the

GDP are likely quite automated and the number of people working in these industries

is not as much as some people think. If you are a police person, doctor or medical staff,

fire fighter, government worker, or city or town worker who still has a job, consider yourselves

very lucky.  Without the tourists, there are many other businesses who are getting close to

bankrupt, and do not need the amount of people that they did when they were busy.

 Delivery companies are not needed by the hotels or restaurants, shopping malls and many

other businesses that relied on tourism.  Warehouses are not needed to store supplies in

these times as so many businesses have also closes due to Covid.  Good Luck to all in

Thailand who are still out of work and will be for a long time.

Geezer

[Chassa]

Reading TV I guess the whole Thai economy is based on beer drinking and bar girls!

[pineapple01]

Just to add a bit more gloom.We visit Pats area for 1 week Feb and have done so for years. This year looking at Hotels as we dove at night Wife noted many power cuts. No it was 200 room nice places with 4 lights on.! Talking to Boss of our Jomtien 5 Star he was realy down on all his last years Regarding Chinese Visitors,he inferred that what little they spent went into but a few pockets. So a total rethink needed not the Usual Band Aid Cluck Up.

[BadBouy]

19 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Not being American, I've never thought of free health care as welfare, it's available to rich and poor alike in most civilised countries.

Is government schooling welfare?, I don't think so as it's equally available to both rich and poor.

Oddly enough the Thai 'free state schools' aren't all that free any more, under Prayut the charges at my local government school have risen from nothing to 6kbht/term.

 

Welfare, is something you get when 

1) you are poor (and female)

2) you haven't contributed anything

And is usually only available for women (single parents) and their kids, although the occasional man may qualify.

I've always found it a bit odd that most men don't understand welfare is essentially a system designed to take from men, to give to women in a gynocentric society.

 

Thai government SS is more of a government run insurance IMHO.

Could you please explain to me how health care is free, If you can I would be all for it! 

[wolf81]

20 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is why you see poor old granny and grandpa out in the fields toiling away, or selling things in the Talad, to make ends meet when they  have no one to care for them.

The mother of my girlfriend (74 years old) enjoys working on the farm to be honest. She gets enough money from both my girlfriend and her sister to get by without working (~8000 THB per month total), but ever since my girlfriend started her farm, she's visiting the farm daily, doing some farming every now and then. She even sells some produce from the farm on the local market occasionally.

 

I believe it's the same story for the neighbouring rice farm (land I'd like to buy at some point). My girlfriend once told me then neighbour (also 70+) wouldn't want to part with his rice farm, while his wife and their children didn't care much for it and would be happy to sell it.

 

How much work is really involved in e.g. a rice farm? It's a few days of planting, few days of harvesting and the rest of the time just waiting.

 

In the end, farming isn't that much work here, depending what you plant of course. Many people that only own a few rai can probably do their farming in an hour a day and be fine.

 

With that said though, the damage to the Thai economy is obviously huge. Many airlines in trouble, many people working for airlines are fired or soon will be. Hotels will be out of business. Less money from bargirls going to the countryside. So on the countryside less people will buy cars, new houses, new furniture ... This means in the countryside economy there will be less work (since often people in the village build the houses). This means less spending as well, which might hurt businesses like local markets, shops, etc... Local businesses might need to fire some staff to stay afloat. People without work are more likely to default on loans and mortgages, which will hurt the lenders, etc... The damage will be huge ...

 

But I feel people that live near farms, they should still mostly be ok. There will be food to eat. People in the city will have a harder time.

Edited August 29, 2020 by wolf81

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, Chassa said:

Reading TV I guess the whole Thai economy is based on beer drinking and bar girls!

Then you only pick those topics that your interested in, and truly believe your view. Good on you to be so open minded.  Good luck with those rose tinted glasses you look through to observe life.

[Pilotman]

8 hours ago, SupermarineS6B said:

Rubbish........ Isaan's been fed by tourists / foreigners for years, where do you think all those houses and pick ups come from, picking rice ?   Just had a call last night from Isaan from an old girlfriend of mine in tears, asking when all this madness will stop as we're all skint, no business, no tourists, NO FARANGS !...... Oh yeah, "Thais won't cry any tears"..........  Back on the plane mate...... 

check back in history old son, Issan is a rice growing and exporting region, and Udon and None Bua Lum Phu developed at staging posts for this trade , both internally and external to Thailand  The phenomena of farangs in Issan is very recent.  Its main development came at the time of the Vietnam war as a center for US activities, both at  Udon and at the close border regions  with Laos.  The economic growth in that region is mainly on the farm economy although movement of population from rural to city has seen many of the young people move to the big cities and send money home, especially to top up the sex trade.  Sure, there are NOW farangs in that region, but go back 25 years, when I met my wife there, you hardly saw a one. Your old girlfriend is hardly the fount of all economic knowledge now is she? 

[zzzzz]

15 hours ago, Raphael54 said:

Complete nonsense indeed. 

The rural economy is heavily supported by the non-rural (city) economy with large cash transfers.  The tourism sector has many linkages into the rest of the economy with lots of multiplier effects.  The rural economy will suffer badly without tourism.  And, by the way, tourism is way bigger than agriculture. In GDP terms agriculture is only about 8 percent compared to tourism's 18 (??) percent. In employment terms agriculture is bigger than tourism but a lot is seasonal and part-time employment and being supplemented by non-agricultural sources of income, including tourism.  In foreign exchange terms tourism brings in about one-fifth of all foreign exchange.  In the short-term this is not an issue but longer term it could become.   

exactly:
How many bar girls send money home to Issan?
How much rice, grown in Issan is eaten by tourists?

How many goods produced in Issan/the north are purchased by tourists?

 

Just because someone is not directly affected by the loss of tourists,  ( think tuktuk drivers, Bars/restaurants in Phuket)
there is a far reaching effect of not having those tourists around

 

PLUS over the past 30 years have driven back roads all over the country, I seriously doubt there is any thai over 2 years old, that has not seen a farang

 

[Pilotman]

3 minutes ago, zzzzz said:

exactly:
How many bar girls send money home to Issan?
How much rice, grown in Issan is eaten by tourists?

How many goods produced in Issan/the north are purchased by tourists?

 

Just because someone is not directly affected by the loss of tourists,  ( think tuktuk drivers, Bars/restaurants in Phuket)
there is a far reaching effect of not having those tourists around

 

PLUS over the past 30 years have driven back roads all over the country, I seriously doubt there is any thai over 2 years old, that has not seen a farang

 

oh dear, let's not economic reality get in the way of uninformed  opinion eh? The whole tourist market only accounts for less than  18% of GDP, fancy that,  while the other 82% of the Thai economy has absolutely nothing to do with expats or tourism. That is the reality, not influenced by a few bar girls sending home their money. You can't build an economy on that. 

[sandyf]

On 8/28/2020 at 10:11 AM, Surelynot said:

The money might not feed directly to them in a rural economy, but where do you think the money comes from for schools, roads, hospitals?....18% is a huge blow to every part of the Thai economy.

It is not 18%, but you will be one of those that think domestic tourism doesn't exist.

International tourism accounts for about 12% of GDP and the government plans to borrow 10% of GDP so they only need to try and make up 2%. Not the disaster many make out.

I have just been to Ao Nang and there is no dispute that some areas have been very badly hit, in particular where they are heavily dependent on the foreign tourist, but in any war there will be casualties.

People should realise the government is not going to please everyone with the actions they take, and there is very little anyone on here can do about it.

If ranting makes you feel better feel free, but stick to the facts.

 

[Chassa]

51 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Then you only pick those topics that your interested in, and truly believe your view. Good on you to be so open minded.  Good luck with those rose tinted glasses you look through to observe life.

The topic is the Thai economy.