U.S. coronavirus cases top six million as Midwest, schools face outbreaks

[earlinclaifornia]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I've never worked out how that is supposed to work. If someone is asymptomatic, they are not coughing or sneezing, so how are they spreading it?

Even if found, are they going to be isolated indefinitely?

Color me surprised, you the sole person here that admits they don't read news. Go figure. Garbage in, garbage out.

[IAMHERE]

10 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Whatever. The equipment to protect yourself is available so use it, or not. Up to you.

What equipment do you mean?  A mask does not protect me unless you (others) are wearing it.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, moe666 said:

Sweden still doesn't have heard immunity, how many deaths in the US do you think it would take to obtain heard immunity. More than you want to count and more than what Trump wants to responsibility for. It cost nothing to wear a mask and possible save a life.

It cost nothing to wear a mask.

LOL. At the beginning of lockdown the local pharmacy was asking $10 for ONE. Considering the ordinary masks are not effective for very long, that's a lot.

Ah, you didn't know that those ordinary paper masks don't work for long! When I worked in a hospital surgical theatre, we had to change them for each operation.

 

BTW, masks alone are only half the requirement- eye protection is also necessary. Not much point only covering the nose and getting infected through the eyes.

 

Since the NZ government doesn't think it necessary to mandate mask wearing except on public transport ( and with so many exemptions it's a bit pointless ) not many in NZ will be wearing them. It's not just me, of course.

For those that do think masks work, they are welcome to buy the ones that actually stop viruses, and take responsibility for their own protection.

 

how many deaths in the US do you think it would take to obtain heard immunity.

If the vulnerable were isolated, IMO, probably not that many. Many that are positive on a test don't even know they have it.

 

 

[IAMHERE]

Not so many decades ago mothers would have parties so their kids would get measles or chicken pox or mumps, etc...   Kids die from Covid-19 very rarely, so let them get it. Just don't hug or hang around the old folks.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, IAMHERE said:

What equipment do you mean?  A mask does not protect me unless you (others) are wearing it.

???????? N95 respirators should be available for you to buy. Don't forget to also wear goggles or an eye shield.

[thaibeachlovers]

5 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

Not so many decades ago mothers would have parties so their kids would get measles or chicken pox or mumps, etc...   Kids die from Covid-19 very rarely, so let them get it. Just don't hug or hang around the old folks.

I was deliberately infected with measles. Picked up chicken pox somewhere.

[thaibeachlovers]

20 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Color me surprised, you the sole person here that admits they don't read news. Go figure. Garbage in, garbage out.

 

I read the news on TVF. Pretty obvious, isn't it?

You were saying something about garbage .

[Scott]

Inflammatory post, reported and removed. 

 

 

[NorthernRyland]

So then given these numbers from June:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-compared-to-other-common-us-

causes-of-death-2020-5?op=1

 

If you have no preexisting conditions then you are 49% more likely to die from COVID then transport accidents. Age is also a factor that is not included in the 6% and I suspect this number goes drastically down with age.

 

COVID deaths/transport deaths

(103,815/12,571)*0.06=0.49

 

We're going to shutdown the entire world for something that for healthy people ,at most, is 50% more dangerous than driving? Are my numbers correct? That sounds crazy to me.

 

EDIT: with that same formula it's 29% more deadly than influenza.

Edited August 31, 2020 by genericptr

[chilli42]

How about continuing the thought “.... while the number of new death per day has been in decline since mid July

[heybruce]

8 hours ago, genericptr said:

Has anyone seen this news? https://www.ibtimes.com/cdc-finds-only-6-coronavirus-deaths-are-solely-covid-19-3037136

 

Only 6% (~9000) are strictly COVID related? Considering the absolute state of hysteria around the world I still do not know a single person, 1st or 2nd hand that has had COVID and died with flu-like symptoms.

Did you read your source?  Specifically the third paragraph:

 

"However, others also quickly pointed out that the number was under the comorbidities section, meaning that 94% of those deaths that were related to COVID were in those who also suffered from comorbidities—the same groups that were considered high risk when the pandemic first took hold."

 

Among those people who had comorbidities, only 6% died solely of Covid 19.  It doesn't say anything about the number of people without comorbities who have died from the virus.

[heybruce]

3 hours ago, genericptr said:

So then given these numbers from June:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-compared-to-other-common-us-

causes-of-death-2020-5?op=1

 

If you have no preexisting conditions then you are 49% more likely to die from COVID then transport accidents. Age is also a factor that is not included in the 6% and I suspect this number goes drastically down with age.

 

COVID deaths/transport deaths

(103,815/12,571)*0.06=0.49

 

We're going to shutdown the entire world for something that for healthy people ,at most, is 50% more dangerous than driving? Are my numbers correct? That sounds crazy to me.

 

EDIT: with that same formula it's 29% more deadly than influenza.

Your source shows that Covid 19 is the third leading cause of death in the US, and that people are nine times as likely to die from the virus as from traffic accidents.  Your 6% number has been debunked.

 

If people take reasonable precautions against dying in auto accidents, shouldn't they also do the same to prevent a disease that is nine times as likely to kill them?

[heybruce]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It cost nothing to wear a mask.

LOL. At the beginning of lockdown the local pharmacy was asking $10 for ONE. Considering the ordinary masks are not effective for very long, that's a lot.

Ah, you didn't know that those ordinary paper masks don't work for long! When I worked in a hospital surgical theatre, we had to change them for each operation.

 

BTW, masks alone are only half the requirement- eye protection is also necessary. Not much point only covering the nose and getting infected through the eyes.

 

Since the NZ government doesn't think it necessary to mandate mask wearing except on public transport ( and with so many exemptions it's a bit pointless ) not many in NZ will be wearing them. It's not just me, of course.

For those that do think masks work, they are welcome to buy the ones that actually stop viruses, and take responsibility for their own protection.

 

how many deaths in the US do you think it would take to obtain heard immunity.

If the vulnerable were isolated, IMO, probably not that many. Many that are positive on a test don't even know they have it.

 

 

You are stubbornly refusing to acknowledge what has been explained repeatedly:  People wear masks so they won't spread the virus, and any other airborne infections they may have, to others.  Why can't you grasp this?

 

It seems your only argument against masks is that they aren't common in New Zealand.  Sad.

[heybruce]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

I read the news on TVF. Pretty obvious, isn't it?

You were saying something about garbage .

That explains a lot.

[NorthernRyland]

What? 6% is not debunked. Here's the relevant quote from the CDC:

 

“Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.”

 

That just means 94% of people had a least one underlying health condition, including obesity, which is extremely common in USA (https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html). According to Forbes it includes things that COVID could have caused (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/08/31/twitter-removes-claim-about-cdc-and-covid-19-coronavirus-deaths-that-trump-retweeted/#60e90e5a3178) quote "They include things such as adult pneumonia, respiratory distress syndrome, respiratory failure" but I haven't confirmed that myself and it seems odd CDC would include those as underlying conditions.

 

The debate is what that information means in terms of policy. I don't have the numbers and would have a hard time doing the analysis anyways but a responsible government would release information like: If you're obese aged x to x and contract COVID your chance of death is x%. If you're young and healthy then your chance of dying is x%. etc... and then relate that back to known illness (like flu) so the common man can act accordingly.

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, milesinnz said:

yes, I think the USA should throw everything open, then data suggests 80% will be infected and we will have a good few million dead and hospitals overwhelmed. There is no evidence of herd immunity. Why do you think we still have the flu. Why is the whole world not immune to the Flu by now, it's been around long enough. Sweden's record is not good whereas New Zealand's record is good. Sweden is a less densely populated country and probably has a much more compliant population than the USA. The USA has well earned the situation it finds itself in.....

What information do you have to suggest millions dead? I've always said isolate the vulnerable, which leaves those not likely to even get seriously sick.

What information do you have that says herd immunity will not happen? That's a nonsense IMO. All those people that had it and recovered should have immunity to the strain they were infected with. However, it's possible that it might mutate like the flu, in which case it's either a vaccine or keep lockingdown every time a few people get infected ( under the present policies ).

 

Why is the whole world not immune to the Flu by now, it's been around long enough.

Strange question, but I already answered why if you really don't know.

 

Sweden's record is not good whereas New Zealand's record is good.

LOL. The NZ government has stuffed up royally, and let it in again. You should keep up.

[heybruce]

13 hours ago, heybruce said:

Did you read your source?  Specifically the third paragraph:

 

"However, others also quickly pointed out that the number was under the comorbidities section, meaning that 94% of those deaths that were related to COVID were in those who also suffered from comorbidities—the same groups that were considered high risk when the pandemic first took hold."

 

Among those people who had comorbidities, only 6% died solely of Covid 19.  It doesn't say anything about the number of people without comorbities who have died from the virus.

 

5 hours ago, genericptr said:

What? 6% is not debunked. Here's the relevant quote from the CDC:

 

“Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.”

 

That just means 94% of people had a least one underlying health condition, including obesity, which is extremely common in USA (https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html). According to Forbes it includes things that COVID could have caused (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/08/31/twitter-removes-claim-about-cdc-and-covid-19-coronavirus-deaths-that-trump-retweeted/#60e90e5a3178) quote "They include things such as adult pneumonia, respiratory distress syndrome, respiratory failure" but I haven't confirmed that myself and it seems odd CDC would include those as underlying conditions.

 

The debate is what that information means in terms of policy. I don't have the numbers and would have a hard time doing the analysis anyways but a responsible government would release information like: If you're obese aged x to x and contract COVID your chance of death is x%. If you're young and healthy then your chance of dying is x%. etc... and then relate that back to known illness (like flu) so the common man can act accordingly.

Once again, read your source.  The third paragraph.  I even copied and pasted it for you.  The 6% figure applies to those who had comorbidities and died after contracting Covid 19.  Your source says nothing about the mortality rate of the general population that contract the virus.

[NorthernRyland]

11 minutes ago, heybruce said:

Once again, read your source.  The third paragraph.  I even copied and pasted it for you.  The 6% figure applies to those who had comorbidities and died after contracting Covid 19.  Your source says nothing about the mortality rate of the general population that contract the virus.

Language fails us. "For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned". The 6% does not apply to those who had comorbidities. "ONLY CAUSE MENTIONED". What's the confusion here?

 

This doesn't mean C19 isn't dangerous or doesn't kill certain groups of people. It's not THAT big of news really. 

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, genericptr said:

Language fails us. "For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned". The 6% does not apply to those who had comorbidities. "ONLY CAUSE MENTIONED". What's the confusion here?

 

This doesn't mean C19 isn't dangerous or doesn't kill certain groups of people. It's not THAT big of news really. 

Language certainly fails you.  Once again, the third paragraph from your source:

 

"However, others also quickly pointed out that the number was under the comorbidities section, meaning that 94% of those deaths that were related to COVID were in those who also suffered from comorbidities—the same groups that were considered high risk when the pandemic first took hold."

 

Your 6% number applies to people who had comorbidities when they contracted the virus.  It does not apply to all those who contracted the virus, only those who already had comorbidities.  Many people without comorbidities contracted the virus and some of them died.  Those people are not accounted for in your source.  They are not part of the 6% calculation.  Your source does not say how many of the general population that contracted the virus died, and what percent of them didn't have comorbidities.

 

I don't know how to explain it any more clearly.

[NorthernRyland]

4 hours ago, heybruce said:

"However, others also quickly pointed out that the number was under the comorbidities section, meaning that 94% of those deaths that were related to COVID were in those who also suffered from comorbidities—the same groups that were considered high risk when the pandemic first took hold."

One of us is failing with reading comprehension and logical reasoning.

 

The number was under the comorbidities sections because there was a row in the table for "no comorbidities", which is the 6% figure. On average there were 2.6 comorbidities but in 6% of cases there were no comorbidities.

 

94% of COVID deaths *ALSO* suffered from comorbidities. Then it logically follows that the exclusion of "also suffered from comorbidities" must equate to "no comorbidities".

 

For example:

 

If 94% of the beach sand also contained plastics then 6% of the beach sand contains no plastic.  Or even better:

 

If 94% of the beach sand also contained plastics then what percent of the beach sand contained no plastic?

 

This begs the question: can a person die of COVID WITHOUT having comorbidities? If that is technically possible then there must be a percentage of cases WITHOUT comorbidities. Right????

 

[jcsmith]

There have also been several confirmed reinfections a few months after the original infection. There's so much to learn about this disease still.

[Credo]

5 minutes ago, jcsmith said:

There have also been several confirmed reinfections a few months after the original infection. There's so much to learn about this disease still.

I think that is the major thing that most people forget.   From day one, it's like exploring a cave with a match.   It was reported to have started in a market, so there was a chance it was spread by food or water.   The lungs were attacked, so there was a good chance it was airborne.   Now, of course, it makes absolute sense that's how it is transmitted, but at the time it really wasn't.   

 

It will take a long, long time to unravel the mystery of how this diseases spreads so easily in some and doesn't in others, how it makes some so sick and others have no symptoms.   A lot to learn.  

 

[Anant72]

On 8/31/2020 at 10:57 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Herd immunity is still an unproven conjecture. 

55555555

Herd immunity is effective on many communicable diseases, like measles and mumps. Nothing unproven about it.

So to hell with those who don't recover, right?

Hell or heaven, wherever they deserve to go. Life doesn't come with a guarantee of long life- disease, war, car crashes, assault etc etc etc can all see us departed life early. More will die of flu than corona, though some that die with corona die in fact of other diseases.

And the jury isn't out on masks, all experts agree that they reduce the spread.

55555555555555555555

If that were true they'd be the law in NZ, but they ain't.

 

Well, let's hope it works for you and for your loved ones: as long as you haven't experienced it yourself by getting sick or losing someone close it is easy to be sanctimonious.

[heybruce]

3 hours ago, genericptr said:

One of us is failing with reading comprehension and logical reasoning.

 

The number was under the comorbidities sections because there was a row in the table for "no comorbidities", which is the 6% figure. On average there were 2.6 comorbidities but in 6% of cases there were no comorbidities.

 

94% of COVID deaths *ALSO* suffered from comorbidities. Then it logically follows that the exclusion of "also suffered from comorbidities" must equate to "no comorbidities".

 

For example:

 

If 94% of the beach sand also contained plastics then 6% of the beach sand contains no plastic.  Or even better:

 

If 94% of the beach sand also contained plastics then what percent of the beach sand contained no plastic?

 

This begs the question: can a person die of COVID WITHOUT having comorbidities? If that is technically possible then there must be a percentage of cases WITHOUT comorbidities. Right????

 

My interpretation of the original CDC data  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm was incorrect.  So was yours.

 

The CDC data shows people who had comorbidities in addition to Covid 19 at the time of death.  It does not show if these people had comorbidities before becoming infected with Covid 19.  However the virus brings on many of the comorbidities that contribute to the death.

 

The two most common comorbidites are "Influenza and pneumonia" and "Respiratory failure".  These are also conditions brought on by the virus.  In fact in view of the large number for influenza, pneumonia and Covid 19 deaths, 68,004, it's very unlikely that these people had pneumonia or a lethal case of the flu before becoming infected by Covid 19.

 

Since 2010 flu seasons have caused between 12,000 and 61,000 deaths by flu and complications  https://www.verywellhealth.com/deaths-from-flu-2633829.  These are CDC number calculated after the end of the flu season on the basis of excess deaths.  Excess deaths  in the US attributed to Covid 19 are over 180,000   https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm.

[heybruce]

15 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

What information do you have to suggest millions dead? I've always said isolate the vulnerable, which leaves those not likely to even get seriously sick.

What information do you have that says herd immunity will not happen? That's a nonsense IMO. All those people that had it and recovered should have immunity to the strain they were infected with. However, it's possible that it might mutate like the flu, in which case it's either a vaccine or keep lockingdown every time a few people get infected ( under the present policies ).

 

Why is the whole world not immune to the Flu by now, it's been around long enough.

Strange question, but I already answered why if you really don't know.

 

Sweden's record is not good whereas New Zealand's record is good.

LOL. The NZ government has stuffed up royally, and let it in again. You should keep up.

"What information do you have that says herd immunity will not happen?"

 

What information do you have that there will be long-term herd immunity with Covid 19?

[thaibeachlovers]

5 hours ago, heybruce said:

"What information do you have that says herd immunity will not happen?"

 

What information do you have that there will be long-term herd immunity with Covid 19?

There is no guarantee of long term herd immunity as it may become like flu and mutate.

However, if there is no herd immunity what is plan B? Should a vaccine not actually be any more effective than the flu vaccine what is the plan?

Do governments have any idea at all what to do if the magic vaccine doesn't work for any of a hundred possible reasons?

 

Lockdowns forever are obviously a non starter, so what's left? I've said isolate the vulnerable and carry on as normal, but I'd be interested in your solution.

[thaibeachlovers]

5 hours ago, heybruce said:

My interpretation of the original CDC data  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm was incorrect.  So was yours.

 

The CDC data shows people who had comorbidities in addition to Covid 19 at the time of death.  It does not show if these people had comorbidities before becoming infected with Covid 19.  However the virus brings on many of the comorbidities that contribute to the death.

 

The two most common comorbidites are "Influenza and pneumonia" and "Respiratory failure".  These are also conditions brought on by the virus.  In fact in view of the large number for influenza, pneumonia and Covid 19 deaths, 68,004, it's very unlikely that these people had pneumonia or a lethal case of the flu before becoming infected by Covid 19.

 

Since 2010 flu seasons have caused between 12,000 and 61,000 deaths by flu and complications  https://www.verywellhealth.com/deaths-from-flu-2633829.  These are CDC number calculated after the end of the flu season on the basis of excess deaths.  Excess deaths  in the US attributed to Covid 19 are over 180,000   https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm.

What is not, apparently, in doubt is that it is only fatal ( for the vast majority of cases ) for the elderly. It should be possible to isolate them and carry on as normal for the rest of us. We've all suffered colds and flu, so not much different for most then.

[Tug]

21 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

What information do you have to suggest millions dead? I've always said isolate the vulnerable, which leaves those not likely to even get seriously sick.

What information do you have that says herd immunity will not happen? That's a nonsense IMO. All those people that had it and recovered should have immunity to the strain they were infected with. However, it's possible that it might mutate like the flu, in which case it's either a vaccine or keep lockingdown every time a few people get infected ( under the present policies ).

 

Why is the whole world not immune to the Flu by now, it's been around long enough.

Strange question, but I already answered why if you really don't know.

 

Sweden's record is not good whereas New Zealand's record is good.

LOL. The NZ government has stuffed up royally, and let it in again. You should keep up.

Hey this aught to (blank)you up carona virus’s has killed more Americans than the United States military lost to combat all services fighting the Japanese through the pacific in ww2 + the 26,000 killed in the 8th Air Force European theater ww2 and you would still have 12,000+ dead Americans left over all in 7 months of incompetence or how about 2 world trade centers a week hummmm look trump surrendered months ago herd immunity will about 2 million dead Americans that’s a mighty steep price to pay because the chief executive doesent have the smarts to handel it stop the chaos vote this dude out!

Edited September 1, 2020 by Tug

[Scott]

Off-topic post removed. 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, Tug said:

Hey this aught to (blank)you up carona virus’s has killed more Americans than the United States military lost to combat all services fighting the Japanese through the pacific in ww2 + the 26,000 killed in the 8th Air Force European theater ww2 and you would still have 12,000+ dead Americans left over all in 7 months of incompetence or how about 2 world trade centers a week hummmm look trump surrendered months ago headed immunity will about 2 million dead Americans that’s a mighty steep price to pay because the chief executive doesent have the smarts to handel it stop the chaos vote this dude out!

From google

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet's population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.

 

and

 

It infected 28% of all Americans (Tice). An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, ten times as many as in the world war. Of the U.S. soldiers who died in Europe, half of them fell to the influenza virus and not to the enemy

 

Corona has a way to go before it becomes as bad as the Spanish flu