Without foreign tourists, grim outlook for Thai economy: BOT

[Fex Bluse]

@sandyf if you have time, can you please explain to the government your analysis that the Thais will make up shortfall with their domestic tourism and reputation for big spending? 

 

I don't think they are aware. 

[HappyinNE]

6 hours ago, soalbundy said:

It does seem rather strange, the weaker the dollar the more Baht I get for the Euro

That will not last.  The west continues to print money which has the effect of reducing the value of a fiat currency.  Just check what real money is doing.  Real money is Gold.  Also silver and soon to be crypto.  Have to go to one of them to maintain the value of your money.

[Marco100]

But foreigners are already back in from Myanmar,  Laos Cambodia,  Vietnam , the so called cheap labor and with them a bit of Covid as well , so what are this people afraid  about ? Open the borders to Tourist  with triple test's , Double twisted jumps ? 

Really I do not get it ???? 

[SteveK]

Thailand could make some money here by announcing an amnesty, lulling people into a false sense of security, then not recognising the amnesty as a genuine extension, leaving people high and dry and having to pay huge sums to agents. Oh wait......  

[Flying Saucage]

11 hours ago, Bender Rodriguez said:

so keep on pumping billions & billions of tax payer's money into FAKE tourism

Not sure if it is taxpayers money. More likely Chinese loans, together with the money for the subs and the high-speed trains. Loans Thailand and the Thai taxpayer later never will be able to pay back later.

 

This is an old business model when a superpower likes to bag a country. Who is interested to read more about it might read John Perkins "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man".

 

Likely also that the closed borders are part of the game. Prayut and Prawit might be well donated for that by their Chinese buddies. For Philipp Patek 2020 might become the best year in history, I could imagine.

 

This is not a conspiracy theory, as it is well known that this is part of China's road and belt initiative. I cannot post a link about that, as this was reason enough last time to delete my post as "off topic".

[Stargeezr]

Domestic tourism is going to have a dismal future in many countries as most people

who were not Government or essential workers have been out of work due to the

corona virus. The school season has returned for a lot of the world and this is an added

expense for parents. Rich retired people are waiting for somewhere to safely go to, but

 they will not be foolish to travel without being very cautious.  Good Luck Thailand, this

Winters high season will have very low numbers.

Geezer

[Grumpy John]

December, by my reckoning, will be the month the bomb goes off.  Factories have been laying off workers and reducing operations, exports will continue to drop.  Tourism will continue to flat line.  A lot of Thai's and expats will delay purchases knowing that there is worse to come and good deals will be had.  I am sure the purchase of military equipment will have a negative effect sooner or later.  By Christmas there maybe riot in the streets...maybe!

[Blumpie]

49 minutes ago, Grumpy John said:

December, by my reckoning, will be the month the bomb goes off.  Factories have been laying off workers and reducing operations, exports will continue to drop.  Tourism will continue to flat line.  A lot of Thai's and expats will delay purchases knowing that there is worse to come and good deals will be had.  I am sure the purchase of military equipment will have a negative effect sooner or later.  By Christmas there maybe riot in the streets...maybe!

I fear that you may be right and hope that you are dead wrong.  

The pain felt after the high season goes by slowly - excruciatingly - will be brutal.  

Fling open the doors, offer insurance, the tourists are NOT going to come.  Not!

[nkg]

11 hours ago, overherebc said:

For a long time the general statements have been 'the baht is too strong' now it would appear that the baht is getting weaker, uk £ going to 41+ ( mid rate on xe ). Does that mean the uk £ is also getting weaker? or, does it mean they are both getting stronger?

If the baht was too strong and if, as they say, it's getting weaker but stays at roughly the same rate to the dollar does that really mean they are actually getting stronger, or, they are getting weaker together.

 

Good question. Here's some major currencies against the Thai Baht for the last 2 months:

 

Thursday 2 July 2020        1 JPY = 0.28901 THB
Wednesday 2 September 2020    1 JPY = 0.29496 THB
Yen - 2.06% increase against Baht

 

Thursday 2 July 2020        1 USD = 31.076 THB
Wednesday 2 September 2020    1 USD = 31.328 THB
Dollar - 0.81% increase against Baht

 

Thursday 2 July 2020        1 GBP = 38.755 THB
Wednesday 2 September 2020    1 GBP = 41.835 THB
Pound - 7.95% increase against Baht

 

Thursday 2 July 2020        1 EUR = 34.933 THB
Wednesday 2 September 2020    1 EUR = 37.134 THB
Euro - 6.30% increase against Baht

 

Thursday 2 July 2020        1 CHF = 32.868 THB
Wednesday 2 September 2020    1 CHF = 34.384 THB
Swiss Franc - 4.61% increase against baht

 

Thursday 2 July 2020        1 AUD = 21.521 THB
Wednesday 2 September 2020    1 AUD = 22.984 THB
Australian Dollar - 6.80% increase against baht

 

The Pound, Euro and Australian Dollar are doing very well. The USD is doing poorly, but not as badly as the Baht, which has lost value to every other currency.

 

I don't think that there's any connection between the Baht and the US Dollar's weakness, I'd say they are both weakening but for different reasons.

Edited September 4, 2020 by nkg

[CALSinCM]

And tomorrow another minister will tell Thai news that tourism is 80% restored and the money is flowing and unemployment is virtually non-existent.  And pigs fly.

[Eddy Ozark]

Another statement of the obvious meaning nothing. It's fun to see all the moaning over lost revenue from tourists in the face of all the red tape TM 30 and etc that these same people are fully or partly responsible for initiating.

 

[SteveK]

9 minutes ago, Eddy Ozark said:

Another statement of the obvious meaning nothing. It's fun to see all the moaning over lost revenue from tourists in the face of all the red tape TM 30 and etc that these same people are fully or partly responsible for initiating.

 

Tourists don't do TM30s.

[sandyf]

11 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

@sandyf if you have time, can you please explain to the government your analysis that the Thais will make up shortfall with their domestic tourism and reputation for big spending? 

"your analysis that the Thais will make up shortfall with their domestic tourism"

 

I said no such thing, I said they planned to borrow the shortfall.

In the absence of a valid argument it is inappropriate to post lies. An apology is in order but not holding my breath, not in the DNA of many.

[DrTuner]

8 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

December, by my reckoning, will be the month the bomb goes off.  Factories have been laying off workers and reducing operations, exports will continue to drop.  Tourism will continue to flat line.  A lot of Thai's and expats will delay purchases knowing that there is worse to come and good deals will be had.  I am sure the purchase of military equipment will have a negative effect sooner or later.  By Christmas there maybe riot in the streets...maybe!

December or early 2021. Then it's been over six months tightening the belts and people will be at the end of the rope. Even if there is a treatment or vaccine, it won't be widely available before that.

[morrobay]

23 hours ago, overherebc said:

For a long time the general statements have been 'the baht is too strong' now it would appear that the baht is getting weaker, uk £ going to 41+ ( mid rate on xe ). Does that mean the uk £ is also getting weaker? or, does it mean they are both getting stronger?

If the baht was too strong and if, as they say, it's getting weaker but stays at roughly the same rate to the dollar does that really mean they are actually getting stronger, or, they are getting weaker together.

Your pound to baht is only from 31.38 baht/$1 / 1 pound/$1.33 = 41.7baht/pound. So as you can see the baht can stay same rate to dollar , but as pound to dollar increases so does pound to baht.

[overherebc]

24 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Your pound to baht is only from 31.38 baht/$1 / 1 pound/$1.33 = 41.7baht/pound. So as you can see the baht can stay same rate to dollar , but as pound to dollar increases so does pound to baht.

And to think all this started because I said I had read reports that the dollar was forecast to weaken.

As Greavsie said 'it's a funny old game'.