Without foreign tourists, grim outlook for Thai economy: BOT

 

Picture: Manager

 

Don Nakornthab of the macroeconomic and monetary policy department of the Bank of Thailand, said that economic figures for July were better than expected after the government eased restrictions on travel following the initial stages of the pandemic lockdown. 

 

He said that Thai domestic tourists were partially responsible for this though he noted that economic benefits were largely felt in tourism areas in and around Bangkok and not too far afield. 

 

He noted that foreign tourism had completely ground to a halt for four months and the outlook for the remainder of the year remained highly unpredictable amid fears about a spike in the virus if foreigners are allowed back in. 

 

That volatile and unpredictable sentiment is likely to remain into next year with local investors cautious meaning a continuing stagnant economy. 

 

Even dire predictions of the number of foreign tourists had had to be further downgraded resulting in even greater loss to GDP than expected. 

 

The message was clear - while July showed some improvement the outlook for the future remained grim, notes Thaivisa. 

 

Source: Manager

 

 

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Probably one of the most sensible predictions in recent months. What needs to be thought out properly is a plan to minimise this grim outlook and doing something tangible to fix it.

Can't argue with that.

20 minutes ago, webfact said:

remainder of the year remained highly unpredictable 

Even if they do open the boarders (which is highly unlikely), very few tourists will come this high season due to various reasons, not only covid. So, expect the worse.

7 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

 What needs to be thought out properly is a plan to minimise this grim outlook and doing something tangible to fix it.

Nothing doing on that one...the purchase of military equipment in view of the imminent invasion from unknown countries is far more important....

Why is the word prediction so overused here? While the facts are clearly pointing to Hobson's choice between losing 10 to 15% of GDP or Importing the Pandemic.

Let us not lose focus on the most important fact that two divers touched a fish in koh phangan and the weird lottery numbers! Everything else is just a diversion of foreign dark forces. 

i get a laugh out of reading these reports of economic woes for thailand due to the lack of tourists.

 

For years, I have been told by the thais that the tourist dollars were such a small part of the economy that thailand wouldn't miss them if they were gone...

Yet the Baht sits resolutely solid against the benchmark USD at 31.35 in a very narrow trading band for some years.

You'd really expect that at 33/34 but foreign currency reserves at record levels say otherwise

22 minutes ago, Chivas said:

Yet the Baht sits resolutely solid against the benchmark USD at 31.35 in a very narrow trading band for some years.

You'd really expect that at 33/34 but foreign currency reserves at record levels say otherwise

Lots of reports saying the dollar is getting weaker, and will be for a while yet, although that should help with exports etc.

3 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that Thai domestic tourists were partially responsible for this though he noted that economic benefits were largely felt in tourism areas in and around Bangkok and not too far afield. 

so keep on pumping billions & billions of tax payer's money into FAKE tourism

16 minutes ago, overherebc said:

Lots of reports saying the dollar is getting weaker, and will be for a while yet, although that should help with exports etc.

lol if the Dollar is getting weaker than the Baht will appreciate into the 30's and 29's.....not the other way

I for one would actually be OK with paying taxes for me plus my 2 workers out of my own pocket IF there would be a viable route for me to stay...

 

And that is after this global insanity basically killed off all my income, less than half a year after getting the company up & running here!

39 minutes ago, Chivas said:

lol if the Dollar is getting weaker than the Baht will appreciate into the 30's and 29's.....not the other way

It just might go that way or it just might go the other way.

If your dollar can buy 30 baht today and 33 baht next week what word would you use?

Just askin'

Edited September 3, 20205 yr by overherebc

2 hours ago, Chivas said:

lol if the Dollar is getting weaker than the Baht will appreciate into the 30's and 29's.....not the other way

It does seem rather strange, the weaker the dollar the more Baht I get for the Euro

BoT should understand that a high Baht will hurt tourism, and for exports it will be devastating.  As for exports to China—they only have interest in raw materials and agricultural goods.  They have zero interest in Thailand’s manufactured goods.

The £ is 41.60 today, steadily rising. Thai economy is stagnant.

2 hours ago, overherebc said:

Lots of reports saying the dollar is getting weaker, and will be for a while yet, although that should help with exports etc.

Yes, I have read those reports—mainly from currency traders, who pump and pitch up a high Euro vs low USD, based on the Fed’s new guidance for higher inflation with no interest rate hikes.  Problem with that thinking—governments won’t go along. Yesterday, the EU raised concerns about a high Euro.  Tough luck for those caught long on Euros.

6 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Yes, I have read those reports—mainly from currency traders, who pump and pitch up a high Euro vs low USD, based on the Fed’s new guidance for higher inflation with no interest rate hikes.  Problem with that thinking—governments won’t go along. Yesterday, the EU raised concerns about a high Euro.  Tough luck for those caught long on Euros.

At least with the £/baht at the moment I can go wild and have two, yep TWO, extra beers this week.

????????????????

6 hours ago, webfact said:

He noted that foreign tourism had completely ground to a halt for four months and the outlook for the remainder of the year remained highly unpredictable amid fears about a spike in the virus if foreigners are allowed back in.

Finger on the pulse... which is getting weaker.

2 minutes ago, overherebc said:

At least with the £/baht at the moment I can go wild and have two, yep TWO, extra beers this week.

????????????????

And with a nominally higher USD, I too can have an extra beer, or maybe buy some imported wine again...

11 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Yes, I have read those reports—mainly from currency traders, who pump and pitch up a high Euro vs low USD, based on the Fed’s new guidance for higher inflation with no interest rate hikes.  Problem with that thinking—governments won’t go along. Yesterday, the EU raised concerns about a high Euro.  Tough luck for those caught long on Euros.

Sometimes it is hilarious if not head scratching the things one reads.  I can be looking at live charts rising in whatever, oil for example, and the flash headline is "oil dips on whatever report", just gotta kinda smile and go on.

 

Those issuing the reports are making money on reports, not markets.........

22 minutes ago, 86Tiger said:

Sometimes it is hilarious if not head scratching the things one reads.  I can be looking at live charts rising in whatever, oil for example, and the flash headline is "oil dips on whatever report", just gotta kinda smile and go on.

 

Those issuing the reports are making money on reports, not markets.........

The only real difference to most out here would be 'if' ok big 'IF' it hits 65/£.

Note big 'if'

????????

Der Mann ist ein Genius

Edited September 3, 20205 yr by soalbundy

What, the domestic tourism is all boosted up, running at 5 bar, 100000 WHP, GDP will be at least +508329% this year. Big P said so, naaaaaa, Thailaaan numba one!

2 hours ago, overherebc said:

It just might go that way or it just might go the other way.

If your dollar can buy 30 baht today and 33 baht next week what word would you use?

Just askin'

Chap after 37 years in financial services I know how foreign currency works...

21 hours ago, webfact said:

Without foreign tourists, grim outlook for Thai economy: BOT

 

So best thing to do is kick out the ones who are still here ! Brilliant !

4 hours ago, Chivas said:

Yet the Baht sits resolutely solid against the benchmark USD at 31.35 in a very narrow trading band for some years.

You'd really expect that at 33/34 but foreign currency reserves at record levels say otherwise

Pound has gone from just under 40 to just under 42 in the last 2 weeks.

At least they should let the "stranded"tourists stay for now, they are probably all free of Covid-19, and they all contribute to a suffering tourists industry, and their contributions will not be replaced by new tourists right after September 26th...????

2 hours ago, Chivas said:

Chap after 37 years in financial services I know how foreign currency works...

For a long time the general statements have been 'the baht is too strong' now it would appear that the baht is getting weaker, uk £ going to 41+ ( mid rate on xe ). Does that mean the uk £ is also getting weaker? or, does it mean they are both getting stronger?

If the baht was too strong and if, as they say, it's getting weaker but stays at roughly the same rate to the dollar does that really mean they are actually getting stronger, or, they are getting weaker together.