Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank

[kiwikeith]

2 hours ago, Hayduke said:

 

It''s not just the tourism industry. The entire country itself won't recover from the disease of the mad generals and their corrupt gang of thieves for many...many years.

 

 

And Thai Airways, they have to recover from the corrupt gang of executive's and incestuitios leeches with their hands jammed in the till. 

They have to sort out that b4 planes air in sky again 

[mran66]

2 hours ago, BlackArtemis said:

Now introducing triple pricing! We'll make up the loss one way or another!

... I guess you mean 30x as 10x is the norm in many places... 

[Pedrogaz]

How can they allow such pessimism? The censors have fallen asleep.

However sad, it believe it is true. I would say little or no farang tourism for two years after Covid becomes a non-issue. I think Covid becoming a non-issue is at least two years away.

Even if we have a vaccine......how long will it take to vaccinate everybody (years) and don't forget the need to vaccinate everybody in both the tourist and hosts countries. There is also the issue of the longevity of the vaccine. 

Farang tourists will not flood back to Thailand until it is way and convenient to come here:

a) there is no quarantine or isolation requirement 

b) there is no pre-flight paperwork involving COVID test and/or in vaccinated people a test which shows the vaccine to have generated IgG antibodies. 

c) Covid infection remains near zero in Thailand.

d) no special medical insurance vs Covid is required for entry.

 

The other harsh reality in recent suggestions for long stay (270 days) is that the real long stayers are retirement, work-related, marriage related. The other group is backpackers having a gap year, and these typically have little money to spend shopping and staying in expensive hotels. My town are closing down hotels and opening hostels instead.

[Hamselv2]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Krungthai Compass spokesman Phachornphot Nantharamas said that revenue from tourism for this year will be down from 2.1 trillion baht to just 910 billion - a 70% drop on 2019. 

 

He noted that arrivals were down from 39 million to just 6.8 million tourists. 

And how about the numbers ( again again), 2,1 T to 910B is a drop of 57%, not 70 %, but that is strange compared to the drop in tourists which is 83%, which means those who dropped visiting LOS anyway did not  spend money... or what??

[DaftToPutRealName]

4 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

"Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank"

 

Dear Khun Phachornphot, I give you a hint:

 

It's only partly Covid-19 itself which causes this. The bigger part is your Thai compatriots and governments paranoid reaction on Covid. You should think a little bit more about this!

It was going down the drain before covid came along. This is just an acceleration.

[onebir]

The discussion here's not really considered the effects on tourism via tourists' home countries.

 

Many people have lost jobs &/ run down any savings. Also banks are concerned about bad debts, so it's harder to borrow on credit cards. And airlines are likely to downsize, so flights could well be more expensive when restrictions are limited.

 

I think these factors point to a multi-year tourism depression, as people gradually get jobs, rebuild savings/credit availability. & a shift towards shorter-range tourism (sorry guys, I guess that means China...)

 

(But maybe, given Thailand's relatively high reliance on tourism (?), that will be somewhat offset by a Baht weakening reflecting weaker invisible exports?)

[ronaldo0]

Down 70% ? He’s optimistic ! ????

[Cake Monster]

This statement from Krungthai Compass, is the first coherent statement of confirmation re - The Dire situation of the Tourist Industry in Thailand, that I have seen.

The statement is also a very clear indicator that the Banks are starting to seriously consider which Business,s they will support, and which they will let slide.

A possible 4 Year drought on Tourists as the banks see it, will be an unsustainable length of time for the Banks to support ailing Business,s during the Covid Crisis. Many Hotels, Restaurants Etc and a whole host of other smaller Satellite Industries will go to the wall also. Industries such as Laundry, landscaping Etc Etc.

The outlook is grim for many Employees going forward, but now is really the time that the Thai Tourism Sector needs to make a massive reset based on pure facts and not on Pipe Dreams 

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

They said it could be 4 years before things get back to anything like normal. 

Can you let T.A.T know, and the Phuket governor.

Maybe they will plan something for their local residents, other than sitting in empty bars waiting for mas tourism to re-start.

[Derek918]

For years I have read ThaiVisa, and read the comments from trolls. How easy it is to criticize, but no one has an answer on how to solve the problem. I feel that the PM has done a great job protecting the people of Thailand. Now the hard part, how to keep it safe for the people of Thailand & the Expats. Yes you can open the borders and let everyone in, the businesses will be happy, the people will be happy to get back to work, but when it hits the fan again, will you the trolls take responsibility for your actions? Or will you slither back under your rock to avoid responsibility. Everyone wants to take credit when it’s positive, but will point to everyone else but themselves when it goes bad. I don’t see anything wrong in doing the 14 day quarantine. What I may add is requiring them to wear a RDIF wristband to keep track of those in quarantine, because problems happen when those people in quarantine don’t care about other people in the community, only themselves. People feel it’s their right to visit any country they want with disregard of the wake of problems they may leave behind. Just look at the countries around the world, as of 9/11, USA 129,522 deaths, UK 41,697 deaths etc for a total of 909,828 deaths in the world, Thailand 58 deaths. Their doing something right. Source John Hopkins University. I live in Pattaya Thailand, I feel safe, I would like to continue to feeling safe. I’m from Hawaii, Hawaii has the same problems as Thailand, in letting in tourists. Because when Hawai’i did let in tourists, because those tourists didn’t “self quarantine” like they said they were, Hawaii is facing a second wave. So before you criticize, if you live in another country, look at your own country on how they are dealing with this pandemic before you criticize Thailand.

[Mainhattencitizen]

4 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

"Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank"

 

Dear Khun Phachornphot, I give you a hint:

 

It's only partly Covid-19 itself which causes this. The bigger part is your Thai compatriots and governments paranoid reaction on Covid. You should think a little bit more about this!

A little reminder. Tourism was already struggling before Covid-19.

[ronaldo0]

9 minutes ago, Derek918 said:

For years I have read ThaiVisa, and read the comments from trolls. How easy it is to criticize, but no one has an answer on how to solve the problem. I feel that the PM has done a great job protecting the people of Thailand. Now the hard part, how to keep it safe for the people of Thailand & the Expats. Yes you can open the borders and let everyone in, the businesses will be happy, the people will be happy to get back to work, but when it hits the fan again, will you the trolls take responsibility for your actions? Or will you slither back under your rock to avoid responsibility. Everyone wants to take credit when it’s positive, but will point to everyone else but themselves when it goes bad. I don’t see anything wrong in doing the 14 day quarantine. What I may add is requiring them to wear a RDIF wristband to keep track of those in quarantine, because problems happen when those people in quarantine don’t care about other people in the community, only themselves. People feel it’s their right to visit any country they want with disregard of the wake of problems they may leave behind. Just look at the countries around the world, as of 9/11, USA 129,522 deaths, UK 41,697 deaths etc for a total of 909,828 deaths in the world, Thailand 58 deaths. Their doing something right. Source John Hopkins University. I live in Pattaya Thailand, I feel safe, I would like to continue to feeling safe. I’m from Hawaii, Hawaii has the same problems as Thailand, in letting in tourists. Because when Hawai’i did let in tourists, because those tourists didn’t “self quarantine” like they said they were, Hawaii is facing a second wave. So before you criticize, if you live in another country, look at your own country on how they are dealing with this pandemic before you criticize Thailand.

And of course all the figures you read from the Thai government are true and they are doing mass testing daily ! ????????

[azaazo9]

15 minutes ago, Derek918 said:

. So before you criticize, if you live in another country, look at your own country on how they are dealing with this pandemic before you criticize Thailand.

But we live in Thailand, it is normal that we criticize the country. Criticism, in this case, means to be realistic.

[onekoolguy]

4 hours ago, Mavideol said:

that's optimistic !!!!  if they don't change their government and their visa requirements it could be forever

Does anyone really think that Covid 19 will be the last illness going around? What will be the reaction of governments when the next flu season hits?

[Chongalulu]

3 hours ago, steven100 said:

another guy with a dart board in the office

TAT aren’t even in the same room as the dartboard 

[3NUMBAS]

theyre lucky so far as

Madrid brings in fresh virus restrictions as Spain hits 500,000 cases

 

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/madrid-brings-fresh-virus-restrictions-095300294.html

 

Madrid has brought in new restrictions on social gatherings, restaurants and bars as Spain tries to curb a spike in coronavirus cases while millions of pupils return to school this week.

A ban on outdoor meetings of more than 10 people was extended indoors because most recent outbreaks of Covid-19 were linked to family meetings or mass drinking sessions organised by young people called botellones.

Funerals, burials, weddings and religious ceremonies as well as tourist events also faced new restrictions.

The crackdown came as Spain became the first western European country to report more than half a million coronavirus cases.

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, PEE TEE said:

BUT BUT they are introducing a new 90 day renewable tourist visa for 2000 thb per person in October we will be fighting for the sunbeds 

They should be offering free four star quarantine, and 50,000 baht spending vouchers. If they were serious, which we all know they are not. The tourism authorities and administration here are some of the least competent people to be found anywhere. To have them as leaders is a sad fate indeed, for these poor souls. 

[Bim Smith]

And it's not just tourism. After 7 years living here I am faced with the prospect of having to leave because if inflexibility in the system that won't allow me to get a Non O based on retirement inside the country. Thankfully my wife is a dual Thai British national and we never want to go through the stress we have had too these last few months. Our long to medium term plans have now changed as we cannot live under this uncertainty. I got the most expensive visa to remain legal in this country until I got to retirement age. It's a real shame they do not see the bigger picture of the harm they are doing to their own country.

[Chongalulu]

38 minutes ago, Derek918 said:

For years I have read ThaiVisa, and read the comments from trolls. How easy it is to criticize, but no one has an answer on how to solve the problem. I feel that the PM has done a great job protecting the people of Thailand. Now the hard part, how to keep it safe for the people of Thailand & the Expats. Yes you can open the borders and let everyone in, the businesses will be happy, the people will be happy to get back to work, but when it hits the fan again, will you the trolls take responsibility for your actions? Or will you slither back under your rock to avoid responsibility. Everyone wants to take credit when it’s positive, but will point to everyone else but themselves when it goes bad. I don’t see anything wrong in doing the 14 day quarantine. What I may add is requiring them to wear a RDIF wristband to keep track of those in quarantine, because problems happen when those people in quarantine don’t care about other people in the community, only themselves. People feel it’s their right to visit any country they want with disregard of the wake of problems they may leave behind. Just look at the countries around the world, as of 9/11, USA 129,522 deaths, UK 41,697 deaths etc for a total of 909,828 deaths in the world, Thailand 58 deaths. Their doing something right. Source John Hopkins University. I live in Pattaya Thailand, I feel safe, I would like to continue to feeling safe. I’m from Hawaii, Hawaii has the same problems as Thailand, in letting in tourists. Because when Hawai’i did let in tourists, because those tourists didn’t “self quarantine” like they said they were, Hawaii is facing a second wave. So before you criticize, if you live in another country, look at your own country on how they are dealing with this pandemic before you criticize Thailand.

A very one dimensional assessment focusing solely on number of deaths . This is about balance and Thailand has achieved none. 59 Covid deaths but nothing done about 25,000 road deaths each year. This has only come about through trashing the economy,destroying the huge tourist industry putting millions out of work and losing thousands more to suicide through desperation. Of Sweden’s 5,500 deaths over half were care home residents-average life expectancy 1.2 years-. Thailand’s demographics ,health ,climate etc indicate that it would have been likely one of the less hard hit. All that’s gonna happen now is the cure will be worse than the illness and eventually when economics finally dictates they will have to open up anyway,so all they’ll have achieved is pay a huge price to back end load the price in lives they will inevitably have to pay anyway. Unless you think your artificially induced and unsustainable'safe' feeling in Pattaya will be the new normal while millions of Thais suffer ?

[spidermike007]

10 minutes ago, Bim Smith said:

And it's not just tourism. After 7 years living here I am faced with the prospect of having to leave because if inflexibility in the system that won't allow me to get a Non O based on retirement inside the country. Thankfully my wife is a dual Thai British national and we never want to go through the stress we have had too these last few months. Our long to medium term plans have now changed as we cannot live under this uncertainty. I got the most expensive visa to remain legal in this country until I got to retirement age. It's a real shame they do not see the bigger picture of the harm they are doing to their own country.

Thailand takes in from billions annually from the expat community, yet we are treated like soi dogs by this toxic administration. We should be given awards and free annual visas, easily and quickly expedited. The money reverberates out in countless ways. Even the rural folks benefit. Alot of the nicer houses in the poorer farming areas were built with money from expats. Alot of trucks, cars and income is from expats. Countless business employing many. To say it is insignificant, is a blatant misunderstanding of Thai economics. Thousands of hotels, restaurants, many airlines and many tour companies, also benefit.

 

The average Thai earns how much? 25,000 baht, if that? Yet, I would guess the average expat spends 100,000 baht a month. Some far more. A few less. But, that represents alot of money brought into the country. One would think an episode like Covid, might give these immigration nimwits a chance to gain some humility. 

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by spidermike007

[Bender Rodriguez]

stating the obvious

 

unless they rethink this whole wuflu and let tourists get in and take the .... that goes with it

[scammed]

almost spot on, but heres the thing, its not covid19

thailand has to recover from, its the governments knee jerk shut down that will take years to recover from

[TKDfella]

1 hour ago, Derek918 said:

For years I have read ThaiVisa, and read the comments from trolls. How easy it is to criticize, but no one has an answer on how to solve the problem. I feel that the PM has done a great job protecting the people of Thailand. Now the hard part, how to keep it safe for the people of Thailand & the Expats. Yes you can open the borders and let everyone in, the businesses will be happy, the people will be happy to get back to work, but when it hits the fan again, will you the trolls take responsibility for your actions? Or will you slither back under your rock to avoid responsibility. Everyone wants to take credit when it’s positive, but will point to everyone else but themselves when it goes bad. I don’t see anything wrong in doing the 14 day quarantine. What I may add is requiring them to wear a RDIF wristband to keep track of those in quarantine, because problems happen when those people in quarantine don’t care about other people in the community, only themselves. People feel it’s their right to visit any country they want with disregard of the wake of problems they may leave behind. Just look at the countries around the world, as of 9/11, USA 129,522 deaths, UK 41,697 deaths etc for a total of 909,828 deaths in the world, Thailand 58 deaths. Their doing something right. Source John Hopkins University. I live in Pattaya Thailand, I feel safe, I would like to continue to feeling safe. I’m from Hawaii, Hawaii has the same problems as Thailand, in letting in tourists. Because when Hawai’i did let in tourists, because those tourists didn’t “self quarantine” like they said they were, Hawaii is facing a second wave. So before you criticize, if you live in another country, look at your own country on how they are dealing with this pandemic before you criticize Thailand.

Well, your second sentence is not entirely correct. I, for one, have mentioned that one solution might be to discount tourism as a major earner and start developing a strategy to concentrate on something else. Other posters have had other suggestions too. But then this requires effort and perhaps a lot of time AND perseverance but those in power simply prefer to come up with 'this & that' scheme for tourism. This bank OP has really politely said what many here have been saying for yonks. The government should be thinking along the lines that tourism is basically dead, change tack and develop/ expand something else. If tourism shows revival in a couple of years or so then  that would be a bonus.

[greeneking]

39 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Thailand takes in from billions annually from the expat community, yet we are treated like soi dogs by this toxic administration. We should be given awards and free annual visas, easily and quickly expedited. The money reverberates out in countless ways. Even the rural folks benefit. Alot of the nicer houses in the poorer farming areas were built with money from expats. Alot of trucks, cars and income is from expats. Countless business employing many. To say it is insignificant, is a blatant misunderstanding of Thai economics. Thousands of hotels, restaurants, many airlines and many tour companies, also benefit.

 

The average Thai earns how much? 25,000 baht, if that? Yet, I would guess the average expat spends 100,000 baht a month. Some far more. A few less. But, that represents alot of money brought into the country. One would think an episode like Covid, might give these immigration nimwits a chance to gain some humility. 

 

I would say 25000 is pretty well paid.

12000 is OK in many places.

Some who have lost their work are picking up 100 baht a day and free food.

[NoshowJones]

2 hours ago, PEE TEE said:

BUT BUT they are introducing a new 90 day renewable tourist visa for 2000 thb per person in October we will be fighting for the sunbeds 

"BUT BUT they are introducing a new 90 day renewable tourist visa for 2000 thb".

You don't really believe that do you?

[Magenta408]

The equation to me is rather simple. If you don't allow tourists to come into the country and to let them enjoy themselves from day one, how do you expect to promote tourism? Virtual tourism? It's a no brainer. Start but start yesterday.

[robsamui]

1 hour ago, Derek918 said:

For years I have read ThaiVisa, and read the comments from trolls. How easy it is to criticize, but no one has an answer on how to solve the problem. I feel that the PM has done a great job protecting the people of Thailand. Now the hard part, how to keep it safe for the people of Thailand & the Expats. Yes you can open the borders and let everyone in, the businesses will be happy, the people will be happy to get back to work, but when it hits the fan again, will you the trolls take responsibility for your actions? Or will you slither back under your rock to avoid responsibility. Everyone wants to take credit when it’s positive, but will point to everyone else but themselves when it goes bad. I don’t see anything wrong in doing the 14 day quarantine. What I may add is requiring them to wear a RDIF wristband to keep track of those in quarantine, because problems happen when those people in quarantine don’t care about other people in the community, only themselves. People feel it’s their right to visit any country they want with disregard of the wake of problems they may leave behind. Just look at the countries around the world, as of 9/11, USA 129,522 deaths, UK 41,697 deaths etc for a total of 909,828 deaths in the world, Thailand 58 deaths. Their doing something right. Source John Hopkins University. I live in Pattaya Thailand, I feel safe, I would like to continue to feeling safe. I’m from Hawaii, Hawaii has the same problems as Thailand, in letting in tourists. Because when Hawai’i did let in tourists, because those tourists didn’t “self quarantine” like they said they were, Hawaii is facing a second wave. So before you criticize, if you live in another country, look at your own country on how they are dealing with this pandemic before you criticize Thailand.

Ever heard of paragraphs? It's what people use to make stuff readable.

[Sean60]

Where is the government in all of this?

What are the plans?

Common!!!!!!!

[Peterphuket]

4 hours ago, Sharp said:

The present Government reactions look as though they will destroy tourism and the greater economy far worse than the virus could ever do! 

That is so true, but a small suggestion, they haven't noticed yet.

Would that happen someday???

[Alex80]

1 hour ago, Derek918 said:

For years I have read ThaiVisa, and read the comments from trolls. How easy it is to criticize, but no one has an answer on how to solve the problem. I feel that the PM has done a great job protecting the people of Thailand. Now the hard part, how to keep it safe for the people of Thailand & the Expats. Yes you can open the borders and let everyone in, the businesses will be happy, the people will be happy to get back to work, but when it hits the fan again, will you the trolls take responsibility for your actions? Or will you slither back under your rock to avoid responsibility. Everyone wants to take credit when it’s positive, but will point to everyone else but themselves when it goes bad. I don’t see anything wrong in doing the 14 day quarantine. What I may add is requiring them to wear a RDIF wristband to keep track of those in quarantine, because problems happen when those people in quarantine don’t care about other people in the community, only themselves. People feel it’s their right to visit any country they want with disregard of the wake of problems they may leave behind. Just look at the countries around the world, as of 9/11, USA 129,522 deaths, UK 41,697 deaths etc for a total of 909,828 deaths in the world, Thailand 58 deaths. Their doing something right. Source John Hopkins University. I live in Pattaya Thailand, I feel safe, I would like to continue to feeling safe. I’m from Hawaii, Hawaii has the same problems as Thailand, in letting in tourists. Because when Hawai’i did let in tourists, because those tourists didn’t “self quarantine” like they said they were, Hawaii is facing a second wave. So before you criticize, if you live in another country, look at your own country on how they are dealing with this pandemic before you criticize Thailand.

Did really the PM do a good job, with a 22% increase of suicide rate (and this is just the beginning)?

Every country is searching for a balance between health and economic safety. Actually, it's worth taking some risks if the alternative is starving to death for millions, a damage far worse than what covid could ever do.

I live in Italy. We were the first european country hit by covid, and we were hit really hard. We had 3 months of country-wide lockdown, and from june we started to live again. We can travel freely.

First thing we have done is to block companies from firing people and to give money to both people and companies to survive. Then we opened up again, accepting 1000 cases a day (mostly asymptomatic). We spent the lockdown time to power up health system to handle them and give them the best cares available and now we are close to 0 deaths despite the new cases.

What can do thailand?

1. Remove the fit to fly certificate, it's <deleted>

2. Remove the covid insurance and heal tourist for free if needed. Call it "tourism investment".

3. Get rid of quarantine. Mandatory covid test 1 week before departure and another at the airport (for free).

4. Implement an efficient tracking system for people.

This will not only save the economy, but a lot of people lives.