Thailand's tourism industry won't recover from Covid-19 for many years, says top Thai bank

[elliss]

18 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

True enough. However, domestic tourism would be down as well. When people have no jobs and no income, they won't be moving far from home.

 

 Correct .

      This is a World wide problem , not just unique to Thailand, re tourism .

     Many people , have lost their jobs , in the manufacturing sector .

     hence they are not in a position to take holidays .

     I fear , the worst is yet to come ..

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by elliss

[geriatrickid]

23 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

World Bank has indicated international tourism accounts for 9.82% of Thailand GDP when people quote larger numbers they are referring to combined international tourism and domestic tourism figures 

https://qz.com/1724042/the-countries-most-reliant-on-tourism-for-gdp/

Indeed. A reasonable estimate and starting point. Thank you for the common sense and honesty.

(I was aware of the number as it has been discussed on the forum many times, usually as it relates to the incessant  threads on how important  western farangs are etc.)

 

18 minutes ago, androokery said:

Does it matter? Different sources use different methods to calculate this number. It’s somewhere in the ball park of 12-20 %. So in sheer MONEY it is a lot. I’ve always thought that it’s not a very interesting number. I mean, it’s the amount of money. It doesn’t reflect the proportion of the population depending on that particular industry. Some parts of a country’s GDP has an impact on a few very wealthy individuals. But tourism is a business where the money is spread around a LOT. Even if tourism accounts for 18% of GDP, I’m pretty sure the tourism industry supports more than 18% of the population. 

No it is not. You are confusing domestic and international tourism. Also lost in the discussion  is the reality that many foreigners with  long term  relationships such as a 2nd home or condo in Thailand are still paying upkeep and condo fees and that thais who travel overseas are staying in thailand and spending whatever they have in Thailand.

 

27 minutes ago, androokery said:

Finland didn’t welcome millions of tourists before, and while the weather is challenging there from Sep to Dec, which may discourage a lot of people, I thought I should at least tell you there was once a thriving business at Thomas Cook putting on flights from the UK, sending kids and their parents to Finland to meet Santa. Because, obviously, Santa lives in Finland.

Ok. Thomas Cook went bankrupt a year ago in September 2019, pre Covid 19.  The tourism market was in upheaval prior to Covid19.  Did you know that  2019 was one of the worst years for airline bankruptcies? There were 17  failures in 2019, and this was pre Covid19. It was a bloodbath and included failures for large and small carriers including;  Jet Airways, Avianca, Aigle Azur, XL Airways, Germania, Flybmi,  Adria. 

 

The point being that we keep seeing  comments in the forum on how bad tourism is in Thailand now, but some people forget that the industry was in trouble long before Covid19.  The pandemic may be the jolt the industry needs to knock some sense into it.

It was not a sustainable model, catering to  zero baht visitors and neglecting the high value tourists; emphasizing visitor numbers over spend value per visitor.  The Thai tourism sector will recover just has it has done previously.  All this doom and gloom ignores the history of Thailand. There were times when the  civil unrest made Thailand a no go destination for a year or more. The long timers will  remind people of the impact of the Asian financial crisis and the AIDS epidemic that destroyed Thai tourism.  The country survived and bounced back from that. It will do so  with  the pandemic. Thailand has gone from the 1960's sex tourism destination to  a hotspot go to country in just  60 years. A year of  turmoil will not change that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[fakser]

Baseless apocalyptic forecast. Open the gates without drastic mandatory demands of insurance and quarantine, and they will hurry in by the millions.

[GAZZPA]

9 hours ago, Destiny1990 said:

Definitely Vouchers.

free visa's for China ????

[GAZZPA]

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

Indeed. A reasonable estimate and starting point. Thank you for the common sense and honesty.

(I was aware of the number as it has been discussed on the forum many times, usually as it relates to the incessant  threads on how important  western farangs are etc.)

 

No it is not. You are confusing domestic and international tourism. Also lost in the discussion  is the reality that many foreigners with  long term  relationships such as a 2nd home or condo in Thailand are still paying upkeep and condo fees and that thais who travel overseas are staying in thailand and spending whatever they have in Thailand.

 

Ok. Thomas Cook went bankrupt a year ago in September 2019, pre Covid 19.  The tourism market was in upheaval prior to Covid19.  Did you know that  2019 was one of the worst years for airline bankruptcies? There were 17  failures in 2019, and this was pre Covid19. It was a bloodbath and included failures for large and small carriers including;  Jet Airways, Avianca, Aigle Azur, XL Airways, Germania, Flybmi,  Adria. 

 

The point being that we keep seeing  comments in the forum on how bad tourism is in Thailand now, but some people forget that the industry was in trouble long before Covid19.  The pandemic may be the jolt the industry needs to knock some sense into it.

It was not a sustainable model, catering to  zero baht visitors and neglecting the high value tourists; emphasizing visitor numbers over spend value per visitor.  The Thai tourism sector will recover just has it has done previously.  All this doom and gloom ignores the history of Thailand. There were times when the  civil unrest made Thailand a no go destination for a year or more. The long timers will  remind people of the impact of the Asian financial crisis and the AIDS epidemic that destroyed Thai tourism.  The country survived and bounced back from that. It will do so  with  the pandemic. Thailand has gone from the 1960's sex tourism destination to  a hotspot go to country in just  60 years. A year of  turmoil will not change that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thailand has gone from a 1960's sex tourism destination to a modern day sex tourism destination. Thailand has decades of work to shake that stigma.

[vinny41]

34 minutes ago, fakser said:

Baseless apocalyptic forecast. Open the gates without drastic mandatory demands of insurance and quarantine, and they will hurry in by the millions.

Your living in Cloud Cuckoo Land

All the people I have talked with International travel to anywhere is at the very bottom of their to do list

Some people are worried about their jobs

But when you asked them about international travel their concerns are focused around

they have been social distancing and wearing masks where necessary but they also see many idiots that don't bother with social distancing or wearing masks.

So when you turn up at the airport everyone may be forced to wear a mask to gain access to the airport but you have no idea if they have been social distancing or wearing masks before the came to the airport.

So they don't want to board a plane for a 3 hour flight forget about 12-14 hours fights with people they don't trust or know

Lots of people are worried about where they are travelling to what if it goes into lockdown again , they don't want to be stranded in another country or a hotel with limited facilites where at home they have all their creature comforts.

if they have built up a small nest egg as a result of lockdowns in their countries many people are replacing kitchens or bathrooms 

not thinking about international travel

[GAZZPA]

3 hours ago, Miami007 said:

Unfortunately,  the lockdown brigade in Europe seems to be winning the war there as well.

Hungary- closed to all foreigners, 

Spain- anyone visiting has to go under quarantine upon return in most countries

UK - visitors to France have to quarantine etc, new restrictions coming

 

All in the name of getting to zero infections - which is an illusion

 

 

It is not about getting zero infections in Europe, it's about keeping the infection rate below 1. Everyone has accepted that the virus is here, we have to live with it and try to balance the economies. France and Spain are in the middle of big second waves so there are restrictions in place to try and control the infection rate. Not really the same as simply shutting the door.

[vermin on arrival]

5 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

It is not about getting zero infections in Europe, it's about keeping the infection rate below 1. Everyone has accepted that the virus is here, we have to live with it and try to balance the economies. France and Spain are in the middle of big second waves so there are restrictions in place to try and control the infection rate. Not really the same as simply shutting the door.

The infections are high but hospitalizations and deaths are low. Seems that lots of the "cases" are asymptomatic.

[Bangkokazy]

The ripple effect of disused restaurants and bars
Does not help the desire to travel to Thailand.

[redwood1]

2 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

The Thai tourism sector will recover just has it has done previously.  All this doom and gloom ignores the history of Thailand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I guess the term The New Normal has not quite sunk in yet......I bet it will in a few more years...

Edited September 11, 2020 by redwood1

[waders123]

Then another wave of mutated virus is released into the general population......

 

It is time for all government bodies to join together and agree on best practices to evaluate and contain future global pandemics.....

 

The future depends on it.....

[bodga]

13 hours ago, Mavideol said:

that's optimistic !!!!  if they don't change their government and their visa requirements it could be forever

and  their  attitude to  foreigners

[rumak]

7 hours ago, Lacessit said:

IMO the way forward would be a rapid COVID-19 test for arrivals, with only those testing positive going into quarantine, paid for by the tourist industry. That would give certainty to tourists, all they can see is hurdles at present.

yes

[rumak]

3 hours ago, vinny41 said:

if they have built up a small nest egg as a result of lockdowns in their countries many people are replacing kitchens or bathrooms 

Sure !  why the heck doesn't the rest of the poor, complaining masses figure this out? (sarcasm, yinn)

"Stop bitchin,  replace your kitchin"    Now there is a slogan that our behinds can get behind.  In our new stainless steel, american standard hong nam.

 

[ttrd]

15 hours ago, JusticeGB said:

First realistic report. What tourist would want to come with the current paperwork hurdles and prison like expensive quarantine. Also most tourism centres don't have many decent restaurants left to eat in. Over half of the restaurants in Pattaya are shut down many for good. 

If so, then it can be a real challenge to sell all inclusive packages ...

[Huckenfell]

18 hours ago, 86Tiger said:

Reality.

 

And there is no "scheme" that can save it.

However if Immigration could only see the sense in making easier visas available, both for long term , say 12 months and short stay, i am sure this would encourage more applications.

[Mywayboy]

Not only Covid 19 has caused this.

Total overriding in general.

Expat were leaving in their droves before This.

Mainly because of the ridiculous immigration laws.

 

[Huckenfell]

15 hours ago, PEE TEE said:

BUT BUT they are introducing a new 90 day renewable tourist visa for 2000 thb per person in October we will be fighting for the sunbeds 

That will help i am sure, but not if they attach their obligitry "whoops" for us to jump through.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

20 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

I suspect that the banks assessment may be more realistic than TAT's!

I suspect they are being optimistic.

If countries domestic tourism gets real people might find they prefer to holiday at home without the hassle of excessive airport security, expensive insurance and expensive flights.

IMO this is more world changing than the 2007 financial disaster, not because of the virus per se, but because of government's ( IMO ) over reaction.

[Henryford]

Covid 19 did nothing, it was the Government that destroyed the tourist industry.

[Stargeezr]

First thing the Thai generals, err government can change is the requirement for

those useless visas. If you need a work visa, okay, but for a tourist or long term

stayer say of over a year,  issue a visa or other document for that requirement.

  Making people run to the border after each 90 day stay,  is ridiculous.  I can go to

Mexico with only my passport and stay a year if I am rich enough.  Asia, and Thailand

it is time to smell the roses and change your ways.   I agree that at least 4 years will

be the earliest the tourism industry may recover at least a bit.    In 4 years however

there will be lots of hotels, guest houses, bars and restaurants that will be closed 

forever.   Get ready for a new life style all over the world, because it is all over the world,                    that has been affected by the covid virus.

Geezer

[Huckenfell]

12 hours ago, rumak said:

i figure my post will get the usual barrage of "stupid idiot"  darts .   Like, hey ru noi,  maybe you don't care if the whole world dies.   what if it was your great grandmother .

 

ok, look.  i don't spend pages and pages arguing about this.  here is my solution,  drink it or shoot it,     (for opening the borders again !)

 

Get the 2675 ministries and their assemblage together and let ru noi talk.   I would tell them to stop with submarines and pattaya boardwalks and quarantine for profit schemes and just do one thing.

 

Take all this self serving manpower and get to work.   Instead of hotels open centers where those infected can be screened.    Set up the equipment and training for those seriously affected  .

Don't have meetings and more meetings .  stop this nonsense.   Get to work to prepare sites especially for covid instead of basically shutting down all hospitals to all the other needed services because 6 people were found to be infected.

 

And lastly,  stop scaring the s##t out of everyone.  Preach that they should eat with the right hand and shake all the politicians hands with your left hand.    Then be sure to wash it.

 

this has been a public service announcement.    i am going on vacation now

The purchase of obsolete submarines by any country such as Thailand, which has absolutely no need of them is an utter waste of the countries finances and should be condemned, especially under such difficult financial circumstances. In fact it is a criminally idiotic idea.

[Huckenfell]

11 hours ago, elliss said:

Correct . 

    Tourism , as Thailand once knew it , will never return ..

      

Its what happens to any country which gets a Military indoctrinated government run by second rate soldiers.

[sandyf]

19 hours ago, 86Tiger said:

Reality.

 

And there is no "scheme" that can save it.

The government has already acknowledged the extent of the problem.

It is like being out of work, do you take a part time job/become self employed or just sit around doing nothing and waiting for something more lucrative to turn up.

 

In times of need, every little "scheme" helps.

[Huckenfell]

9 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

Thailand has gone from a 1960's sex tourism destination to a modern day sex tourism destination. Thailand has decades of work to shake that stigma.

Fact is that there is plenty to do and see in Thailand other than sex tours, in fact i wonder what percentage of the tourism industry is purely for sex tours.

[Huckenfell]

9 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Your living in Cloud Cuckoo Land

All the people I have talked with International travel to anywhere is at the very bottom of their to do list

Some people are worried about their jobs

But when you asked them about international travel their concerns are focused around

they have been social distancing and wearing masks where necessary but they also see many idiots that don't bother with social distancing or wearing masks.

So when you turn up at the airport everyone may be forced to wear a mask to gain access to the airport but you have no idea if they have been social distancing or wearing masks before the came to the airport.

So they don't want to board a plane for a 3 hour flight forget about 12-14 hours fights with people they don't trust or know

Lots of people are worried about where they are travelling to what if it goes into lockdown again , they don't want to be stranded in another country or a hotel with limited facilites where at home they have all their creature comforts.

if they have built up a small nest egg as a result of lockdowns in their countries many people are replacing kitchens or bathrooms 

not thinking about international travel

Just give it time and don't be so negative.

[Huckenfell]

5 hours ago, rumak said:

Sure !  why the heck doesn't the rest of the poor, complaining masses figure this out? (sarcasm, yinn)

"Stop bitchin,  replace your kitchin"    Now there is a slogan that our behinds can get behind.  In our new stainless steel, american standard hong nam.

 

Don't forget the Bum Gun though.

 

[newnative]

12 minutes ago, Huckenfell said:

Fact is that there is plenty to do and see in Thailand other than sex tours, in fact i wonder what percentage of the tourism industry is purely for sex tours.

Small

[vinny41]

10 minutes ago, Huckenfell said:

Just give it time and don't be so negative.

I am not negative about the issue I have provided the forum with information that people have told me as far as their concerned

International travel is bottom of their to do list and that is international travel anywhere not just Thailand

While covid is around their preference is stay at home with their friends and families that can support them if they or there families get serious ill.

[Grumpy John]

33 minutes ago, Huckenfell said:

Its what happens to any country which gets a Military indoctrinated government run by second rate soldiers.

555 Aim at the right target.  Why rate the ordinary soldier as second rate.   They are afterall only a product of their training.  Aim your venom at those with high rank, the usurpers who may wear a Generals uniform, but may not Deserve to,  they are responsible for all that happens.