Hi guys, 

 

Being in corporate banking I scroll through market reports and equity research on a daily basis. The corporate structure of Thailand is extremely concentrated to a handful of powerful families - similar to South Korean Chaebol's or Japanes Keiretsu's. Being in a 'Terminal 21 mall' or inside a 7/11 store - you would be amazed in how many products and services are inter-connected. 

 

Anyhow, we don't need be conspiracy actors to say that corporations - world wide - does have real influence. Italy and Spain are almost back at 100%. The US took a decision quite early that everything can't close down. 

 

And - in all honesty - if I had to guess back in feb/march I would have said that Thailand would be as open as Spain is today. Some heavy lobbying by the tourism sector (+10% of the direct economy - +20% of the indirect economy) seems non-existent. 

 

In the stock market the Thai Bank Sector is trading below 1997 Asian Crisis multiples and the other week I read that some 14% of condos were vacant, pre-C19. Non-performing loans is going through the roof...

 

While all this is going on, both the citizens and absolutely the corporations seems pretty complacent. A lot of small and medium sized business owners in Europe and in the US stated - quite loudly - already back in march that we can't close down forever, since it's their livelihood. Perhaps I read the wrong news, but it's my opinion that the Thai society just 'accepts' the poverty that comes with the close down - and keeps quiet. How so? 

 

Thailand is a very conservative society with a feodal system

The only way for an evolution is unfortunately an implosion.

 

The handfull of powerfull families have no any interest in any change

and the mass of the poors doesn't have the power to act and force a change

none of them is going to do any form of business lobbying in the next months\years.

 

The junta actually in charge has learned from the past and has locked all the possible exits

1 hour ago, aldriglikvid said:

Being in corporate banking I scroll through market reports and equity research on a daily basis. The corporate structure of Thailand is extremely concentrated to a handful of powerful families - similar to South Korean Chaebol's or Japanes Keiretsu's.

 

Oh, what a moderately moderate and modest post. I guess you predicted the 2008 crisis with great confidence with your buddy Peter Schiff. 

I suggest that you discuss the topic with the people in your organization who are tasked with making strategic investment decisions. They will explain to you why much of Thailand's current financial hardship is a reflection of the world market and the government that it has. Foreign tourism is an important contributor to the economy, but it is a small component. General industry accounts for a GDP share that is 4X+ greater and it is suffering the impact of reduced demand for its products. The one bright spot is agriculture. 

 

What exactly do you expect Thailand to do if foreign countries in response to an expensive pandemic have imposed restrictions on travel? China is not allowing  tourist junkets to leave the country. That's not Thailand's fault. Australia, Canada, New Zealand and others have  lengthy  isolation periods for  foreign travelers entering their respective countries. It discourages international travel. International  air travel is  unpleasant and  expensive. Consumers are justifiably concerned that they might be subject to a capricious flight cancellation and left stranded. That too is not Thailand's fault. All the lobbying  in the world will not change those characteristics.  Time, however will.  Wait. It will be a few more months of this and then it should end.