Vaccines Not Looking Good...Only 30% Efficacy

[Pattaya Spotter]

In a sobering essay, BMJ [British Medical Journal] editor Peter Doshi says those hoping for a breakthrough to end the pandemic would be disappointed...

 

None of the trials of COVID-19 candidate vaccines can detect a reduction in serious outcomes such as hospitalization or death. Associate editor Peter Doshi warned that not even phase 3 trials under way in the race for a vaccine can prove their product will prevent people contracting COVID-19. Doshi said some vaccines [will] likely reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection by only 30%.

 

https://www.rappler.com/science/life-health/vaccine-trials-cannot-detect-virus-risk-reduction

Edited October 22, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[BritManToo]

4 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

None of the trials of COVID-19 candidate vaccines can detect a reduction in serious outcomes such as hospitalization or death.

Isn't that ZERO% efficiency?

[scammed]

placebo grade efficiency, i think many will take comfort innit though,

not least bill gates

Edited October 22, 2020 by scammed

[Surelynot]

I think this is highly misleading and needs to be read carefully.....he is saying these trails are not aimed at showing the efficacy, that will come later......I think all he is saying is that these trails will not prove to be the break though moment.....that will come later, if it comes at all.

[Pattaya Spotter]

13 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Isn't that ZERO% efficiency?

I guess what the author means is that those who get sick enough to require hospitalization, about 20%, will continue to require it whether they take the vaccine or not. As it is now, 80% don't require it and 40-50% of those infected are asymptomatic (and 40% have mild symptoms and can quarantine and treat at home).

Edited October 22, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[scubascuba3]

You could always take more than one vaccine

[rumak]

Another 27 pages of "the facts say this'"       "NO,  the facts say that " 

 

well,  more chance to sell bathing suits and skin creams.

 

go to it boys.... and gals

[Pattaya Spotter]

12 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

I think this is highly misleading and needs to be read carefully.....he is saying these trails are not aimed at showing the efficacy, that will come later......I think all he is saying is that these trails will not prove to be the break though moment.....that will come later, if it comes at all.

Isn't that the purpose of Phase 3 trials...efficacy? Stages 1 and 2 test for an immune response, safety, and dosage, etc. Also he makes the point that the trials are not even being made on the most vulnerable populations...presumably those who need the vaccine most.

[BritManToo]

3 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

You could always take more than one vaccine

Or the same vaccine 4x.

[BritManToo]

Just now, Pattaya Spotter said:

Also he makes the point that the trials are not even being made on the most vulnerable populations...presumably those who need the vaccine most.

You don't want to kill anyone in the 'trials' stage.

[Pattaya Spotter]

3 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

You don't want to kill anyone in the 'trials' stage.

Phase 3 trials are specifically to test for efficacy...phase 1 and 2 test for safety, dosage, etc. That's why they involve 30-40k people...because they've already been deemed safe...now they want to see if they actually work under real world conditions and not in a small scale laboratory setting.

Edited October 22, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[BritManToo]

Just now, Pattaya Spotter said:

Phase 3 trials are specifically to test for efficacy...phase 1 and 2 test for safety, dosage, etc. That's why they involve 30-40k people...because they've already been deemed safe...now they want to see if they actually work under real world conditions and not in a small scale laboratory setting.

Thalidomide must have slipped through the cracks.

[Pattaya Spotter]

Just now, BritManToo said:

Thalidomide must have slipped through the cracks.

Thalidomide is a drug, given to sick people, not a vaccine given to healthy people. The standards are different.

[rumak]

Personally,  I am very fortunate not to live every day waking up to Covid panic.

 

Last year 3 nice men in clean white shirts came to my door and handed my some brochures .  They assured me that if i just believed in fairy dust that I would be saved .  So, what the heck,I believe !  And sure enough here i am,  still as cynical and  obstinate as ever !   Come and get me you little puny virus .   You feelin' lucky ?

 

sure, you can all come and laugh at my grave.   but till then i am gonna hold onto my brochuresand just enjoy life.  I think a lot more effort is required for all to resist the fear being broadcast 24/7, get your body healthy,   and get your mind on something positive

[ukrules]

16 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Isn't that the purpose of Phase 3 trials...efficacy? Stages 1 and 2 test for an immune response, safety, and dosage, etc. Also he makes the point that the trials are not even being made on the most vulnerable populations...presumably those who need the vaccine most.

They started the phase 3 trials on the younger people first and then expanded them to the elderly much later in the testing. I recall reading some time back that the under 50's group were no longer being recruited for the phase 3 test of the Oxford vaccine and they're concentrating on older people.

 

The vaccine does generate T cells and antibodies which come from B cells (so we know it generates B cells due to the presence of antibodies) - I think that's the best you can hope for from any vaccine. T and B cells usually last for some time, measured in years or decades.

 

How effectively they mitigate any future infection is anyones guess right now.

 

[86Tiger]

 

I think this would be found to be the result in every past attempt at developing a vaccine for a covid type virus.  So they are only confirming all that have come before.

 

 

 

But if they can just get few more million from desperate nations to continue research I am sure it is just out there few months further.......

[Don Chance]

Beware of covid disinformation!

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-coronavirus-russia-china-1.5583961

[Scott]

Conspiracy post removed along with off-topic posts and replies.   A post violating Fair Use Policy has also been removed.

 

14) You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Please only post a link, the headline and the first three sentences.

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/terms/

[BangkokReady]

38 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Or the same vaccine 4x.

If we can get it in a Monster energy drink or a kale smoothie, we might be in business.

[edwardandtubs]

Very misleading title. He's talking about the limitations of some of the trials, not the limitations of the vaccine. Pfizer is so confident of theirs they've already started producing hundreds of thousands of it. Considering it will only get approved if it is more than 50% effective, it's safe to say theirs is much better. Some estimates have it as high as 90%+.

Edited October 22, 2020 by edwardandtubs

[Mark Nothing]

If you think about the concept of "vaccine" logically it is ludicrous to take a perfectly healthy person and inject a foreign substance into the body in the name of health.  It simply sucks the vitality and life out of you while the body attempts to erradicate the toxins leaving your body in a depleted state.  

[edwardandtubs]

3 minutes ago, Mark Nothing said:

If you think about the concept of "vaccine" logically it is ludicrous to take a perfectly healthy person and inject a foreign substance into the body in the name of health.  It simply sucks the vitality and life out of you while the body attempts to erradicate the toxins leaving your body in a depleted state.  

You call that logical thinking?

[Pattaya Spotter]

5 minutes ago, edwardandtubs said:

Very misleading title. He's talking about the limitations of some of the trials, not the limitations of the vaccine. Pfizer is so confident of theirs they've already started producing hundreds of thousands of it. Considering it will only get approved if it is more than 50% effective, it's safe to say theirs is much better. Some estimates have it as high as 90%+.

I don't think the title is misleading...it's taken directly from the Rappler article summary of the BMJ article. The actual BMJ article is linked below so anyone wanting to read the source article may do so. 

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037

[mommysboy]

It wouldn't surprise me if the BCG and Flu jabs prove just as effective.  They are both safe and proven.

 

The solution to covid19, imo, could be widescale infection with a lesser coronavirus: the sort that gives you a runny nose and little else.

[scammed]

3 minutes ago, Mark Nothing said:

If you think about the concept of "vaccine" logically it is ludicrous to take a perfectly healthy person and inject a foreign substance into the body in the name of health.  It simply sucks the vitality and life out of you while the body attempts to erradicate the toxins leaving your body in a depleted state.  

it has its uses, but for me, when i weigh the ease of which it infect, and the target group along with mortality rate on young people, and the horrendous economic impact,

it just isnt worth the enormous effort for society,

although for individuals if they can afford it and think its worth it, be my guest and fund it yourself

[Chivas]

1 hour ago, scammed said:

placebo grade efficiency, i think many will take comfort innit though,

not least bill gates

No one has done more to help others in poorer countries than Bill Gates

$93 Billion of his own money dedicated to others. You people are absolute roasters claiming there is some spurious ludicrous conspiracy going on

[Pattaya Spotter]

3 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I don't think the title is misleading...it's taken directly from the Rappler article summary of the BMJ article. The actual BMJ article is linked below so anyone wanting to read the source article may do so. A related BMJ editorial about the Phase 3 testing protocols is also linked.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4058

Something going wonky with the editing function...it acts like I'm making a reply and not editing a post..

Edited October 22, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[BritManToo]

21 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

If we can get it in a Monster energy drink or a kale smoothie, we might be in business.

Red Bull?

[scammed]

3 minutes ago, Chivas said:

No one has done more to help others in poorer countries than Bill Gates

$93 Billion of his own money dedicated to others. You people are absolute roasters claiming there is some spurious ludicrous conspiracy going on

what theory would that be ?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Some of what I'm reading in the OP doesn't seem to match what I've been reading re the vaccine research efforts... Let me see what I have saved...

 

Quote

Key U.S. COVID-19 vaccine trials set to resume

Oct. 21, 2020 3:49 PM ET|About: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)|By: Douglas W. House, SA News Editor

In an interview, Operation Warp Speed chief Moncef Slaoui stated that he expects the U.S. trials evaluating Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.3%) and AstraZeneca's (AZN -1.2%) COVID-19 vaccine candidates to resume as early as this week.

The trials were paused to allow time to investigate possible safety signals.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3624430-key-u-s-covidminus-19-vaccine-trials-set-to-resume

----------------------------------------------

 

Quote

FDA Ad Com tomorrow on development/authorization of COVID-19 vaccines

Oct. 21, 2020 1:43 PM ET|About: AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)|By: Douglas W. House, SA News Editor

The FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee will virtually meet tomorrow, October 22, to discuss, in general, the development, authorization and/or licensure of COVID-19 vaccines. No specific applications will be discussed during the meeting.

Specific areas to be covered include requisite studies to demonstrate safety and efficacy, both pre- and/or post-licensure, and special populations to be included such as kids and pregnant women. The committee will discuss the need for post-marketing safety studies following full (BLA) approval and active safety follow-up following emergency use authorization (EUA).

The agency issued industry guidance in June (included in briefing document).

Meeting materials

 

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3624369-fda-ad-com-tomorrow-on-development-authorization-of-covidminus-19-vaccines

Note the reference above to safety and efficacy for special populations such as kids and pregnant women...

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

Quote

Pfizer may apply for emergency use of COVID-19 vaccine by late November: CEO Albert Bourla

Oct. 16, 2020 7:06 AM ET|About: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)|By: Mamta Mayani, SA News Editor

In an open letter from Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla, the company provide greater clarity around the development timelines for its and partner BioNTech’s (NASDAQ:BNTX) COVID-19 vaccine.

PFE said it could be ready to apply for emergency-use authorization (EUA) of its COVID-19 vaccine by late November, assuming it receives positive efficacy and safety data from late-stage human trials.

To grant EUA, FDA requires companies to provide two months of safety data on half of the trial participants.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3622792-pfizer-may-apply-for-emergency-use-of-covidminus-19-vaccine-late-november-ceo-albert-bourla

Edited October 22, 2020 by TallGuyJohninBKK