"Drastic" losses to Thai tourism with 1.57 TRILLION baht hit, admits tourism minister

[LivinLOS]

3 hours ago, pkrv said:

Yes minister this might well be a worldwide phenomenon, but there's a lot of places in the world that don't have ~20% GDP reliant on tourism.

 

So perhaps way past time to get your thinking caps on?

And yet its not a simple binary choice.. I am running multiple businesses in UK and Europe, they have not tried to shut borders, and yet thier economies are also massively down, far more than the 10% GDP top line that seems to be the economist guesses. Businesses I am talking to and dealing with are in dire straights, many just hanging on with all reserves gone, one of my clients (who owes me a decent chunk of EUR) recently been taken to hospital, worksites in chaos etc etc. 

Expats in Thailand seem to talk as though opening the borders solves Thailands problem, in reality it will merely generate another domestic problem across all sectors of the economy not just tourism. Plus if they do open, who is coming ?? Travel and tourism is decimated anyway, so it may be a case of bearing the cost for only a fraction of the upside. 

Expats in thailand are in a secure bubble, which they seem to feel the need to criticise. I left Thailand in august and have been travelling since, its not pretty out there. 

[Chelseafan]

1.57 Trillion? And the rest. I doubt my local bar on soi Honey is reporting their earnings every month nor are the massage parlors, small resturants, jet ski's, boats etc...

 

 

[onebir]

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Good, now they have an excuse to take a loan from CCP and let them trigger the debt trap, effectively doing what the Sino-Thais want: selling the country to China.

Alternatively, as of now, countries heavily indebted to China have an excuse to coordinate and jointly default. (This might even be covered by force majeure clauses in their debt covenants. But I'm not a lawyer or sovereign bond expert so don't quote me...)

[Lacessit]

The response of a local golf course in Chiang Rai is to put its fees up, high season. So golfers taking advantage of the lower fees go elsewhere. No tourists, what high season?

The course has about 100 caddies. Fewer customers, less paid employment for the caddies. They are the ones that suffer, permanent employees get a fixed salary.

Honestly, there are times when Thai managers are so dumb I wonder if they can find their own a##es with a bum gun.

[JusticeGB]

That amounts to 22,000 baht for every man, woman and child in Thailand. Pretty catastrophic when seen in those terms. 

[pkrv]

16 minutes ago, LivinLOS said:

And yet its not a simple binary choice.. I am running multiple businesses in UK and Europe, they have not tried to shut borders, and yet thier economies are also massively down, far more than the 10% GDP top line that seems to be the economist guesses. Businesses I am talking to and dealing with are in dire straights, many just hanging on with all reserves gone, one of my clients (who owes me a decent chunk of EUR) recently been taken to hospital, worksites in chaos etc etc. 

Expats in Thailand seem to talk as though opening the borders solves Thailands problem, in reality it will merely generate another domestic problem across all sectors of the economy not just tourism. Plus if they do open, who is coming ?? Travel and tourism is decimated anyway, so it may be a case of bearing the cost for only a fraction of the upside. 

Expats in thailand are in a secure bubble, which they seem to feel the need to criticise. I left Thailand in august and have been travelling since, its not pretty out there. 

I'm suggesting the government needs to do some serious thinking. Said nothing about a binary choice, and there can certainly be forms of opening the border that allow the people who can or want or need - nevermind actual tourists - to return to Thailand to do so under controlled and safe circumstances and in turn bring in much needed money.

 

Travel is decimated - down just 10% - you should look up the origin of the word. Nitpicking aside, yes travel is down, but by your own admission you've been travelling for 3 months so there is tourism out there.

 

My point was Thailand has possibly over relied on tourism and so will suffer more than others. Only time will tell.

Edited October 23, 2020 by pkrv

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, Flying Saucage said:

It was the paranoid reaction of the government to the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself which caused these 1.57 trillion losses to Thai tourism. 

 

Instead of gradually opening the country months ago after having learned about the virus and it's transmission and treatment, they decided to block any tourists from coming. So what did they expect, other than ruining the industry?

 

But of course, there is this masterplan of the generals, to sell the country to China in order to line up the own pockets. So nothing else was to expect.

 

Yes right. Meanwhile in the real world, WHO recognizes that Thailand has handled the pandemic brilliantly compared to all those wonderful "first world" nations in Europe, the US, Aussie etc. They all put money before people and are now enjoying their second lockdowns, curbs and curfews. 

 

Dumb idea not to close the borders and have millions affected.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Baerboxer

[LivinLOS]

4 minutes ago, pkrv said:

there can certainly be forms of opening the border that allow the people who can or want or need - nevermind actual tourists - to return to Thailand to do so under controlled and safe circumstances and in turn bring in much needed money.

But they already are.. I applied for my COE to come back next month, 100% painless, took less than 2 days start to finish, everything booked and arranged.. Every week they open a new class of visa, property owners, elite, wealthy etc.. On top of the already married, Thai family etc.. 

People need to view the howling old folks who cant work a website with significant scepticism.. OA needs insurance and 800k.. Show that for the over 50s and you you can have a COE to come next week. 

General tourism and quaratine free travel isnt there, but Thailand is hardly closed, and people making those claims are generally the pennyless ones who offer very limited upside for Thailand anyway. 

[Pattaya Spotter]

1 hour ago, soi3eddie said:

If exploring I always used to rent a car or motorcycle when going to Phuket. Much cheaper than frequently taking taxis and tuk tuks and more convenient too.

Much safer too...not risking a blow to the head.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Pattaya Spotter

[pkrv]

8 minutes ago, LivinLOS said:

But they already are.. I applied for my COE to come back next month, 100% painless, took less than 2 days start to finish, everything booked and arranged.. Every week they open a new class of visa, property owners, elite, wealthy etc.. On top of the already married, Thai family etc.. 

People need to view the howling old folks who cant work a website with significant scepticism.. OA needs insurance and 800k.. Show that for the over 50s and you you can have a COE to come next week. 

General tourism and quaratine free travel isnt there, but Thailand is hardly closed, and people making those claims are generally the pennyless ones who offer very limited upside for Thailand anyway. 

Judging by a lot of the posts on TV I think there are many who can contribute but are struggling to do so because of the inconsistent or difficult hoops they need to jump through - I never said I was one of them.

 

And don't presume to know my circumstances - I have an Elite visa and have a property here and several back in the UK, so I'm not one of your "penniless ones". I do however have empathy for those who are struggling to live their lives and be with the ones they care about in TH.

[lkv]

1 hour ago, FritsSikkink said:

Thailand could have opened a long time ago if Europe and the USA had better control over the virus. They are still debating there that it not necessary to wear a mask.

So that's what stopped Thailand of opening up to other countries in Asia for example, was it?

 

Or maybe other countries in Asia did not want to consider travel bubbles with Thailand, being aware that "testing is low", to be polite about it?

 

Are you Thai, because you sound like the Thai Government now, it's Europe's fault that Thailand did not open lol.

Edited October 23, 2020 by lkv

[DrTuner]

57 minutes ago, BigStar said:

We also always ignore the Mastercard Index, which happens to correlate pretty well. Mastercard doesn't count transit lounge visitors or day crossings by Laotians that TAT: TVF insists are being counted. Check out a few years of Mastercard: https://www.traveldailymedia.com/thailand-no-1-destination-on-mastercards-global-index/

I checked Mastercard's data source before. Government agencies -> TAT.

[barney42bb]

Karma

[PEE TEE]

I blame it all on Covid 19 . its thanks to China its all happened yet Thailand want them all to come back . But the chinese government won't let them anyway 

[Mung]

5 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

Send the bill to your mates in Beijing.  They let the Wuhan China virus out so they can make restitution to every country effected.

 

People seem to forget that Thailand was the second nation in the world to see infections within their borders, second after China. People also forget how nonchalant Thailand and China were from January through February, and into March. Another thing people forget is how WHO stated that air-travel to or from China in those months did not need to be grounded - something that inevitably caused the spread of the virus globally. People are forgetful creatures 

[Jeffr2]

Thailand has been far too dependent on tourism revenues for far too long.  They're ruined the country by opening it up to mass tourism.  I know many are suffering due to this, but perhaps time for a reset?

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273125/countries-with-the-highest-tourism-receipts-in-2019/

[Mung]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

WHO recognizes that Thailand has handled the pandemic brilliantly

 

Dumb idea not to close the borders and have millions affected.

WHO stated right at the start of the pandemic, that air travel did not need to be grounded, and borders did not need to be closed, especially around China. China, Thailand and WHO essentially caused this entire situation 

[lujanit]

1 hour ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Yes right. Meanwhile in the real world, WHO recognizes that Thailand has handled the pandemic brilliantly compared to all those wonderful "first world" nations in Europe, the US, Aussie etc. They all put money before people and are now enjoying their second lockdowns, curbs and curfews. 

 

Dumb idea not to close the borders and have millions affected.

You need to check your sources, if you used any.

 

Australia has done really well in controlling covid, in fact one of the top countries.  They test and report which is a lot more than Thailand does.  You never get the truth out of an authoritarian 'government'.

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, Mung said:

WHO stated right at the start of the pandemic, that air travel did not need to be grounded, and borders did not need to be closed, especially around China. China, Thailand and WHO essentially caused this entire situation 

Because nobody knew the virus was airborne.  Something they determined later.  We still know understand this virus 100%.  Especially the long term effects.

[overherebc]

2 hours ago, crazykopite said:

Soon to be 3+ trillion when there are no tourists as we approach the peak season might as well cancel Christmas and New Year for 2020.

We have already cancelled it.

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

OK, so it seems to be official - tourism and tourism income is down 75%.

 

But, but,

 

How on earth can the people in charge be predicting only a 7.1-7.8% drop in Thai GDP if tourism making up a lowly estimated 10% (yeah, we know its higher) of Thai GDP has dropped that much on its own ?

 

If Thailand comes away this year with a ridiculous spouted 7% drop when tourism alone has gone done 7.5%, exports down, rice down, mass unemployed spending nothing, then they are even bigger fibers than we thought already !

 

 

Nearly all non biased sources say it is about 20% of total GDP, or about $110 million a year. When you factor in all the related industries and jobs. This administration will do everything in it's power to doctor the numbers. But, regardless of what kind of magic they perform on paper, the economy will take a huge hit, and it will be far higher than that which is reported by the empty suits. 

[vinny41]

These are the countries most reliant on your tourism dollars

International Tourism  Thailand 9.82% GDP

Source  The World Bank

https://qz.com/1724042/the-countries-most-reliant-on-tourism-for-gdp/

[Cake Monster]

5 hours ago, pkrv said:

Yes minister this might well be a worldwide phenomenon, but there's a lot of places in the world that don't have ~20% GDP reliant on tourism.

 

So perhaps way past time to get your thinking caps on?

And the IMF are saying that Countries which are heavily reliant upon Tourism, are going to have much larger hits to their GDP next year, and will take until possibly the end of 2022 to recover.

[KannikaP]

2 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

If exploring I always used to rent a car or motorcycle when going to Phuket. Much cheaper than frequently taking taxis and tuk tuks and more convenient too.

I think the Spotter was referring to getting a taxi home after a night on the Chang, not exploring.

[Jeffr2]

12 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

These are the countries most reliant on your tourism dollars

International Tourism  Thailand 9.82% GDP

Source  The World Bank

https://qz.com/1724042/the-countries-most-reliant-on-tourism-for-gdp/

Other sources say way more than this.  And in the end, how much "grey" money is involved?  I'd say lots.

[sambum]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Blame, blame, blame. It was caused by anything but us. Without Covid, Thailand was heading toward a disastrous high season. Hotels at 50% occupancy, at a time when they are usually nearly full. So, Pipat. You need to admit what an utter failure you have been as tourism minister. You are an empty suit. 

 

These issues and problems were becoming apparent long before Covid. And none were being addressed. Tourism had been declining for years already. The numbers were up. But the quality of tourist was way down. And according to everyone I spoke to last year, the year before and the year before that, income was way, way down. So, "this blame it all on Covid scenario" is somewhat disengenuous. Sure, Covid is huge. And the drop now is stunning. But, my point is there were plenty of issues prior to Covid. And are any of them being addressed?

Again, this is a situation where nobody is attempting to get to the root of the problem. Of course, in Thai society, it is not particularly popular to look within for the source of the problem.

Spot on! I have seen the number of tourists where I live decline continually over the years - long before Covid.

Covid has become a convenient excuse for many things - downturn in tourism being just one of them. The prolonged "State of Emergency" was (is?) nothing to do with Covid - it was used as an excuse to try to prevent protests. If there is no Covid in the country, why do we need a State of Emergency? ("So we can react quickly if there is a second wave")  

[vinny41]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

Other sources say way more than this.  And in the end, how much "grey" money is involved?  I'd say lots.

Do the other sources seperate domestic tourism and International Tourism or do they group both together under a single banner Tourism. I have yet to see any other links , all I see is members estimates with figures they just make up.

[Dialemco]

It would appear that these figures include peak season as borders were not closed until end of March. Peak and High seasons starting end of December until beginning if March probably already lost so next year's figures are going to be dramatically worse. What ever conditions of entry including quarantine it should be understood potential tourists have a fear of travelling There has  to be incentives by Government spending subsidised airfares would be a start and crackdown on over priced hotels etc

[Aussiepeter]

As lujanit has said, I can assure you all on TV that (apart from Victoria which is run by an idiot) Oz has its sh*t together pretty much re C -19. I am in a small country town in Nthn NSW, about a hundred miles south of Brisbane. No virus here - but our friend's half Thai daughter age 8 got sent home from our daughters' school yesterday with a fever and a runny nose (not been out of town for 9 months) and has to get a Covid test and 'safe' result before being allowed to return to school. There has not been a case within hundreds of kms from here. No masks - no social distancing. Like another planet. A plane load of Aussies from London came into Oz yesterday from London, into lockdown for 14 days in Darwin. And yes, they are allowed to have alcohol ! Tried to tell the wife tonight about this headline, but all I got is "I'm not interested - that is Thailand - I'm never going back there" but yet she'd only just finished a long call from her very sick mum in Chiang Mai, who at a govt hospital today in CM had to give 5 vials of blood, to find out 'just what is wrong with her' ! Never happened before, she said. Aged 70, she lives near the airport, for those locals. Guess we will know soon.

[tribalfusion001]

39 Chinese is a start just another 25 million to go. I'm afraid they will have to open up, 20% reduction in GDP is too big a hit to take without serious economic damage and civil unrest.

 

I don't think they are capable of opening up with those in charge, tourism was nicely rolling again, people in and people out. Now they are starting from a very low base of nothing apart from the stragglers left from March. Tourist resorts that look like ghost towns with boarded up shops and bars. Maybe people will stick to closer to home after this situation finishes and far flung places will have to rely on less tourists.