Thai third quarter GDP shrinks 6.4% year-on-year, less than expected

[webfact]

Thai third quarter GDP shrinks 6.4% year-on-year, less than expected

 

FILE PHOTO: People wearing masks as protection against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) work in deep-fried Chinese dough shop in Bangkok, Thailand, August 22, 2020. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy contracted less than expected in the third quarter, a sharp recovery from the prior quarter as domestic activity rebounded after coronavirus curbs were eased, leading the government to raise growth estimates for this year.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy shrank 6.4% in July-September from a year earlier, official data from the state planning agency showed on Monday, versus an 8.6% decline forecast in a Reuters poll.

 

On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded a seasonally adjusted 6.5% in the September quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council said, better than the 3.8% growth forecast by economists.

 

In the June quarter, GDP contracted a revised 12.1% on the year and a revised 9.9% on the quarter.

 

The agency now predicts gross domestic product (GDP) to decline 6.0% this year, having previously projected a 7.3%-7.8% contraction.

 

(Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon, Orathai Sriring and Satawasin Stapormcharnchai; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-11-16

 

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[MadMuhammad]

Can anyone tell me why they would bother to rush to open borders then ????????‍♂️

[ThailandRyan]

If you do not truly know what the real figures are from Tourism, and how much it may or may not be responsible for a reduction in the GDP, then how can the figures be anywhere close to being true.  How many tourist businesses actually report all of the income they generate, and how about the seasonal workers paid under the table.  Anyone can make numbers lie, and give false hope.  How much of the change in what was forecasted and, then what was reported was assisted by the Governments handing out money and the other programs to assist businesses, and families who used the new found income infused into the economy to buy things.  To me the who numbers game they report is a feel good story, but not the truth.

Edited November 16, 2020 by ThailandRyan

[Pravda]

Things are great

[spidermike007]

I think it is fairly safe to refer to these as "doctored numbers". There is simply no way the economy only contracted by this amount. With the tens of thousands of hotels that have closed, or are running at a 9% occupancy, the airports closed to any international traffic, and cargo, the borders sealed, real estate sales have grounds to a near halt, rentals are way down, and with the economy in the duldrums, nobody could convince me of the veracity of this inane and fake 6.4% figure.

 

I have personally seen hundreds upon hundreds of shops, travel agencies, massage shops, bars, restaurants, and hotels closed, in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Pattaya, Phuket, and Samui, and many thousands have closed nationwide, many permanently. Talk to the average person. Other than government workers, the armed forces, and some food vendors, most people have been affected by this slowdown. 

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, MadMuhammad said:

Can anyone tell me why they would bother to rush to open borders then ????????‍♂️

I'll volunteer. ????????

 

Because if you say 'I don't believe it' like Richard Wilson, you can make a proper farang fuss about it.

[webfact]

Thai economy contracts 6.4 per cent in third quarter

By The Nation

 

 

The economy shrank 6.4 per cent in the third quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said on Monday.

 

The gross domestic product in the third quarter however was an improvement from the 12.1 per cent contraction in the second quarter, as a result of improvements in total exports of goods and services, private investment, and private final consumption expenditure. Meanwhile, the government's final consumption expenditure, and public investment both expanded continually, the NESDC, the state-owned think-tank, said.

 

Agricultural production fell by 0.9 per cent, due mainly to the decline in main crops including paddy, rubber and oil palm. The non-agricultural sector declined by 6.8 per cent, improving from a fall of 12.9 per cent in the second quarter, as the government has eased measures to prevent and control the spread of Covid-19. Furthermore, economic stimulus measures also supported the recovery of manufacturing and service sectors, which fell by 5.3 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, improving from falls of 14.6 per cent and 12.2 per cent in the second quarter, the NESDC said.

 

The recovered service sector included wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities, and transportation and storage. Moreover, construction, and information and communication expanded continually.

 

In terms of expenditure, private final consumption expenditure fell by 0.6 per cent. Gross fixed capital formation, and exports and imports of goods and services contracted by 2.4 per cent, 23.5 per cent, and 20.3 per cent, respectively. However, government final consumption expenditure expanded by 3.4 per cent. After seasonal adjustment, the Thai economy in the third quarter expanded by 6.5 per cent quarter on quarter.

 

Private final consumption expenditure fell by 0.6 per cent, recovering from a fall of 6.8 per cent in the second quarter. Non-durable and service items expanded by 2.7 per cent, and 3.8 per cent, respectively. However, durable and semi-durable items decreased by 19.3 per cent, and 14.0 per cent, respectively.

 

General government final consumption expenditure increasing by 3.4 per cent, continued to expand from a rise of 1.3 per cent in the second quarter. The expansion was mainly attributed to compensation of employees, with a 1.6 per cent rise. Moreover, purchases of goods and services grew by 7.8 per cent. In addition, social transfer in kind also expanded by 8.0 per cent.

 

Gross fixed capital formation fell by 2.4 per cent, compared to a fall of 8.0 per cent in the second quarter. Private investment decreased by 10.7 per cent, compared to a 15.0 per cent reduction in the second quarter. Machinery items were a major contributing factor, with a reduction of 14.0 per cent. 

 

Meanwhile, construction expanded slightly by 0.3 per cent. Public investment significantly expanded by 18.5 per cent, increasing from a rise of 12.5 per cent in the second quarter. The expansion resulted from an 18.4 per cent expansion in public machinery items as well as an 18.6 per cent increase in public construction, driven mainly by government construction.

 

Changes in inventories at current market prices in the third quarter decreased to the value of Bt120.6 billion. Reduction in stocks came mainly from rice, sugar, motor vehicles, preparation and spinning of textile fibres, and gold.

Accumulation in stocks, meanwhile, included rubber, paddy, jewellery and related articles, computers and peripheral equipment, and refined petroleum products.

 

Goods and services balance at current market prices recorded a surplus of Bt257.2 billion, after a surplus of Bt397.5 billion in trade balance and a deficit of Bt140.3 billion in service balance.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30398007

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-11-16

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

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[neverere]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

If you do not truly know what the real figures are from Tourism, and how much it may or may not be responsible for a reduction in the GDP, then how can the figures be anywhere close to being true.  How many tourist businesses actually report all of the income they generate, and how about the seasonal workers paid under the table.  Anyone can make numbers lie, and give false hope.  How much of the change in what was forecasted and, then what was reported was assisted by the Governments handing out money and the other programs to assist businesses, and families who used the new found income infused into the economy to buy things.  To me the who numbers game they report is a feel good story, but not the truth.

 

What numbers do you have ?

[Swimfan]

The year on year for the September Quarter still included tourism from October last year to lockdown. The real proof with be the March to March figures next year

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, neverere said:

 

What numbers do you have ?

It was a sarcastic comment.  How can they know what the true numbers are is my point.  They are grasping at untrue statistics to make up what they want.

 

1 hour ago, webfact said:

After seasonal adjustment, the Thai economy in the third quarter expanded by 6.5 per cent quarter on quarter.

In other words a deficit shrank but is still a deficit, as I said its suppose to be a feel good story.  Yet Thai Airways is still bleeding heavily as well as many businesses that have been impacted.  Money is still being thrown at building much like the Chinese Ghost Cities which is what kept their fake economy afloat as they were showing a growth.  The hotel industry is nearly shuttered and has been for now going on 9 months.  Have they removed those from there statistics as they are shuttered businesses and were reported in the 2nd quarter as such.  I find it hard to believe the economy here has rebounded, and yet the baht is still the Stallworth Asian currency which is drawing in more funds to be parked hoping for growth.  Somethings rotten here, and its not the Danish blue cheese in my refrigerator.

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Agricultural production fell by 0.9 per cent, due mainly to the decline in main crops including paddy, rubber and oil palm.

Yet it was only a couple of Weeks or so ago, that the Government were stating Rice Exports had plummeted by 30 % due to the strong Baht, and non cost effective production / high Milling costs.

Cant believe a single word that is said from these People.

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I think it is fairly safe to refer to these as "doctored numbers". There is simply no way the economy only contracted by this amount. With the tens of thousands of hotels that have closed, or are running at a 9% occupancy, the airports closed to any international traffic, and cargo, the borders sealed, real estate sales have grounds to a near halt, rentals are way down, and with the economy in the duldrums, nobody could convince me of the veracity of this inane and fake 6.4% figure.

 

I have personally seen hundreds upon hundreds of shops, travel agencies, massage shops, bars, restaurants, and hotels closed, in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Pattaya, Phuket, and Samui, and many thousands have closed nationwide, many permanently. Talk to the average person. Other than government workers, the armed forces, and some food vendors, most people have been affected by this slowdown. 

If they stated 60.4% I might have believed the post.

[Isaan sailor]

“It’s the economy, stupid.”

President Bill Clinton

My version:  It’s the Baht, stupid.