Brexit talks still stuck because EU is asking too much, UK says

[RayC]

On 12/5/2020 at 9:55 PM, Hi from France said:

You really think the UK would have agreed to a EU emission of bonds? To take responsibility for a common debt? 

And why not? These are unprecedented times. Pre-Covid would you have foreseen Germany abandoning its refusal to allow government borrowing to support struggling EU members, or accept the concept of collective debt within the EU?

On 12/5/2020 at 9:55 PM, Hi from France said:

 

Ironically, given the terrible impact of Covid-19 on its economy, no doubt the UK would be one of the first beneficiaries.

Which rather undermines your argument that the UK would veto any deal.

On 12/5/2020 at 9:55 PM, Hi from France said:

 

Now even benefiting of +-100 billions of European solidarity funds (our Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative), the Brits would have vetoed (and blocked the rescue package for all of us in the meantime... ) . 

Repetition and mere conjecture.

On 12/5/2020 at 9:55 PM, Hi from France said:

 

British exceptionalism is very very strong, we have 40 years of experience.

You may be correct but it is an accusation that could just as easily be levelled at France.

On 12/5/2020 at 9:55 PM, Hi from France said:

 

Joining the € was unthinkable,

Not unthinkable at all. In the late '90s Gordon Brown (then Finance Minister) devised five economic tests that would have to be met before the UK would join the Euro. These tests were never met and, therefore the UK did not adopt the Euro. In hindsight, that appears to have been a very wise decision.

On 12/5/2020 at 9:55 PM, Hi from France said:

 

so would be the sharing of a sovereign debt. 

. 

See above.

 

To repeat my previous comment. I am pro-EU, but I certainly don't consider it perfect or beyond reproach, nor do I subscribe to what appears to be the fashionable view among many Europeans on TVF, that the problems faced by the EU are suddenly going to become so much easier to solve now that the UK is no longer a member.

[RayC]

18 hours ago, sandyf said:

Therein lies the fundamental problem, is the UK a single entity or not?

In a political sense on the international stage the answer must be 'Yes, the UK is a single entity'. Whether this is the best position for the constituent members of the UK is another question.

18 hours ago, sandyf said:

 

In the run up to the Scottish referendum, David Cameron promised Scotland a voice at the EU table, should that now be forgotten.

 

Can you post a link please.

[Hi from France]

40 minutes ago, RayC said:

To repeat my previous comment. I am pro-EU, but I certainly don't consider it perfect or beyond reproach, nor do I subscribe to what appears to be the fashionable view among many Europeans on TVF, that the problems faced by the EU are suddenly going to become so much easier to solve now that the UK is no longer a member.

Much easier all across the board no. But I'd say "quite easier" ????

 

In the early 2000', the UK was extremely active in the EU. But that was an exception.

 

Present negotiations and the 4 last years show how hard it has become for the UK to strike (and then keep their word) in any deal with the European Union. 

 

The EU faces many challenges, the UK leaving voluntarily is a good thing. 

 

Maybe 10-20 years in the future, when the die-hard Brexiteers are dead or retired, the UK will be able to play a positive role in the EU. 

 

You consider yourself pro-EU, I do not know you, but the "pro-EU" Brits I used to discuss with had very very different expectations that what we expect from the EU in France.

 

As a consequence, I like the EU much better outside the UK sphere of decision and it opens many new avenues for us, the Covid-19 recovery plan being one of them. 

 

. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Hi from France

[nauseus]

37 minutes ago, Hi from France said:

Much easier all across the board no. But I'd say "quite easier" ????

 

In the early 2000', the UK was extremely active in the EU. But that was an exception.

 

Present negotiations and the 4 last years show how hard it has become for the UK to strike (and then keep their word) in any deal with the European Union. 

 

The EU faces many challenges, the UK leaving voluntarily is a good thing. 

 

Maybe 10-20 years in the future, when the die-hard Brexiteers are dead or retired, the UK will be able to play a positive role in the EU. 

 

You consider yourself pro-EU, I do not know you, but the "pro-EU" Brits I used to discuss with had very very different expectations that what we expect from the EU in France.

 

As a consequence, I like the EU much better outside the UK sphere of decision and it opens many new avenues for us, the Covid-19 recovery plan being one of them. 

 

. 

 

Maybe 10-20 years in the future the EU will be dead or retired?  

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, RayC said:

 

Can you post a link please.

I heard it in his speeches but I am not going to waste my time trawling through transcripts.

He begged the people of Scotland and told them anything they wanted to hear to remain in the UK, not to upset the Queen.

He gambled with the future of Scotland, already planning the brexit referendum but his arrogance prevented any thought of the possibility of losing that vote.

If Boris Johnson had any integrity he would respect what was said by the leader of the Conservative party to the people of Scotland in 2014 should a Section 30 request arise again following the Scottish elections.

[micmichd]

7 hours ago, nauseus said:

 

Maybe 10-20 years in the future the EU will be dead or retired?  

Corrupt EU is collapsing anyway. There's all kinds of fights now within the EU. And it's mostly the Southern and Eastern European nations that cause trouble within the European non-nation. 

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, micmichd said:

Corrupt EU is collapsing anyway. There's all kinds of fights now within the EU. And it's mostly the Southern and Eastern European nations that cause trouble within the European non-nation. 

 

And the northwestern one! 

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, pacovl46 said:

It’s still a mistake and time will show.

The UK cannot recognise a mistake even when it is staring them in the face, this is what Johnson said on 24th Jan.

 

"The signing of the Withdrawal Agreement is a fantastic moment, which finally delivers the result of the 2016 referendum and brings to an end far too many years of argument and division."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-quotes-election-2020-b1766959.html

 

And in Sept

 

The UK government has struggled to explain why it has only now discovered problems with the EU treaty's provisions for Northern Ireland, nine months after Johnson triumphantly signed the document and said it set Britain on the path to a sovereign new future.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200909-british-pm-johnson-defends-new-bill-seeking-to-breach-eu-withdrawal-treaty

 

And now the legs are coming off.

 

 

EU diplomats with knowledge of the meeting said Michel Barnier rejected rumours from Sunday night that a deal had emerged on fishing, which has dogged negotiations since the beginning.

He is said to have warned that the two sides were also still apart on the questions of governance, and of fair competition for British companies in the EU – the two other longstanding sticking points.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-trade-eu-michel-barnier-b1767230.html

[IvorBiggun2]

We should have walked 4 years ago and waved two fingers at the same time.

[bkk_bwana]

For all you British retirees living in Thailand on UK based pensions, funds or savings. A no deal will hit your pocket as the GBP will inevitably devalue. 

[CorpusChristie]

10 minutes ago, bkk_bwana said:

For all you British retirees living in Thailand on UK based pensions, funds or savings. A no deal will hit your pocket as the GBP will inevitably devalue. 

 

  Which will benefit the UK , the goods the UK produces will be cheaper for the World to buy

[IvorBiggun2]

2 hours ago, bkk_bwana said:

For all you British retirees living in Thailand on UK based pensions, funds or savings. A no deal will hit your pocket as the GBP will inevitably devalue. 

No it won't if your pension is index linked.

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

We should have walked 4 years ago and waved two fingers at the same time.

The delay has lessened the shock, most are now prepared for the reality.

 

Leaving the EU without a trade deal on 31 December would, according to the UK’s independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), hold back UK GDP growth by around 2 per cent in 2021, or £40bn.  

That translates into a loss of £1,500 per UK household. And over 15 years the OBR estimates, based on the modelling done by a host of independent researchers, that the damage would hit 6 per cent of GDP, or around £120bn, or around £4,000 per household.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/brexit-deal-wages-benefits-taxes-b1767297.html

[sandyf]

4 minutes ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

No it won't if your pension is index linked.

Only if there is rampant inflation to offset the deterioration in the exchange rate.

[IvorBiggun2]

3 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The delay has lessened the shock, most are now prepared for the reality.

 

I've been prepared for it and I'm sure most people who voted leave new that 4 years ago. This is why we should have walked 4 years ago. All the EU backlash would all be behind us now. What a waste of 4 years.

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

  Which will benefit the UK , the goods the UK produces will be cheaper for the World to buy

But the cost of goods will rise irrespective.

 

British businesses face an “administrative burden” cost of £7.5bn a year in filling out customs paperwork after the Brexit transition period, the chief executive of HMRC has said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hmrc-brexit-transition-business-paperwork-customs-b1767557.html

[IvorBiggun2]

4 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Only if there is rampant inflation to offset the deterioration in the exchange rate.

Stop doom forecasting. Let's just wait and see. 

[sandyf]

3 minutes ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

I've been prepared for it and I'm sure most people who voted leave new that 4 years ago. This is why we should have walked 4 years ago. All the EU backlash would all be behind us now. What a waste of 4 years.

You really believe that this is what they vote for?

 

Leaving the EU without a trade deal on 31 December would, according to the UK’s independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), hold back UK GDP growth by around 2 per cent in 2021, or £40bn.  

That translates into a loss of £1,500 per UK household. And over 15 years the OBR estimates, based on the modelling done by a host of independent researchers, that the damage would hit 6 per cent of GDP, or around £120bn, or around £4,000 per household.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/brexit-deal-wages-benefits-taxes-b1767297.html

[sandyf]

3 minutes ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

Stop doom forecasting. Let's just wait and see. 

I didn't forecast anything, didn't this come from you?

 

"No it won't if your pension is index linked."

 

Index linking comes from inflation, for the poster that you replied to to be wrong, the increase from inflation would have to offset the reduction in the exchange rate.

It is you that will have to wait and see the index linked percentage, exchange rates are available every day.

[polpott]

23 minutes ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

No it won't if your pension is index linked.

Its index linked to the GBP not the THB so it will vey much affect your pension. My pension is linked to RPI and has fallen near 20% in THB since the referendum.

[IvorBiggun2]

7 minutes ago, sandyf said:

It is you that will have to wait and see the index linked percentage, exchange rates are available every day.

I worry not. If we have to pay a price to leave the EU then so be it. I can live with that.

[polpott]

1 minute ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

I worry not. If we have to pay a price to leave the EU then so be it. I can live with that.

I don't see why I should have to "live with that". I didn't vote leave and see zero benefits in leaving.

[pixelaoffy]

2 minutes ago, polpott said:

I don't see why I should have to "live with that". I didn't vote leave and see zero benefits in leaving.

That's the problem ! There are those who lost the vote 4 half years ago and won't 'live with that'  as the other side would have accepted it . Remainers sounding like the Trump cultists who can't accept he lost .. what a good parallel!

[polpott]

Just now, pixelaoffy said:

That's the problem ! There are those who lost the vote 4 half years ago and won't 'live with that'  as the other side would have accepted it . Remainers sounding like the Trump cultists who can't accept he lost .. what a good parallel!

Far from it. The majority voted leave and now we are seeing the consequences of that vote. I wouldn't be complaining if everything in the garden was rosy.

[7by7]

9 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

  Which will benefit the UK , the goods the UK produces will be cheaper for the World to buy

 

Even after WTO tariffs have been applied? Unlikely.

 

The fall in Sterling will make imports more expensive. As will WTO tariffs. Please tell us how more expensive imports, especially food, will benefit the UK.

 

 

 

[CorpusChristie]

4 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

Even after WTO tariffs have been applied? Unlikely.

 

The fall in Sterling will make imports more expensive. As will WTO tariffs. Please tell us how more expensive imports, especially food, will benefit the UK.

 

 

 

 

   Food importation prices are usually agreed 3-5 years in advance , to stop shop price fluctuations due to currency exchange rate changes .

   Not even the financial experts can  precisely predict the outcome, so theres little chance of either you or me being able to do that .

  We have ,you are a Remainer and you think Brexit will be a disaster .

I am a Leaver and I think everything will be OK .

Thats the level of our intellect 

[vogie]

1 minute ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

   Food importation prices are usually agreed 3-5 years in advance , to stop shop price fluctuations due to currency exchange rate changes .

   Not even the financial experts can  precisely predict the outcome, so theres little chance of either you or me being able to do that .

  We have ,you are a Remainer and you think Brexit will be a disaster .

I am a Leaver and I think everything will be OK .

Thats the level of our intellect 

Doom and gloom vs Over the moon.

[7by7]

8 hours ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

I've been prepared for it and I'm sure most people who voted leave new that 4 years ago. This is why we should have walked 4 years ago. All the EU backlash would all be behind us now. What a waste of 4 years.

 

Many people who voted to leave in 2016 believed Vote.Leave when they said that after we left we would still enjoy all the benefits of membership such as unfettered access to the single market.

 

Those of us who voted to remain knew that was not true; you can't leave a club and use it's facilities for free!

 

So had we left four years ago without a deal we would have immediately lost not only access to the single market, but also access to the EU trade agreements we had been trading with the rest of the world with.

 

This would have meant immediately reverting to WTO rules. See What would ‘trading on WTO terms’ mean for the UK? for what that would have meant.

 

Of course, we would have eventually negotiated and agreed our own trade agreements. But after four years we have yet to do so with any of the major markets. Except Japan, but that deal is a shadow of the one we would have benefited from were we still a EU member.

[nauseus]

7 minutes ago, 7by7 said:

 

Many people who voted to leave in 2016 believed Vote.Leave when they said that after we left we would still enjoy all the benefits of membership such as unfettered access to the single market.

 

Those of us who voted to remain knew that was not true; you can't leave a club and use it's facilities for free!

 

So had we left four years ago without a deal we would have immediately lost not only access to the single market, but also access to the EU trade agreements we had been trading with the rest of the world with.

 

This would have meant immediately reverting to WTO rules. See What would ‘trading on WTO terms’ mean for the UK? for what that would have meant.

 

Of course, we would have eventually negotiated and agreed our own trade agreements. But after four years we have yet to do so with any of the major markets. Except Japan, but that deal is a shadow of the one we would have benefited from were we still a EU member.

 

We weren't allowed to negotiate and agree our own trade agreements, remember?

[7by7]

14 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

Food importation prices are usually agreed 3-5 years in advance , to stop shop price fluctuations due to currency exchange rate changes .

 

If you say so; but aren't they agreed in USD? If so, a fall in Sterling will effect food prices in the UK.

 

I see that you have chosen to ignore non food imports and the effect of WTO tariffs.

 

17 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

 Not even the financial experts can  precisely predict the outcome, so theres little chance of either you or me being able to do that .

Indeed, which is why I find and post evidence from experts to back up my opinions whenever I can. 

 

Evidence such as that in my previous post.

 

18 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

We have ,you are a Remainer and you think Brexit will be a disaster .

I am a Leaver and I think everything will be OK .

Thats the level of our intellect 

 

Disaster? I hope not; I hope something can be salvaged from the 2016's massive mistake.

 

It seems, though, that you believe everything will be rosy, despite evidence to the contrary such as Nissans' warning that the tariffs applied as the move components in and out of the UK mean they will leave the UK in the event of no deal. Nissan warned a no-deal Brexit could kill its UK business. It employs 7,000 people at Britain's biggest car plant.