Covid-19 second wave to hit year-end spending by Bt16 billion, economist warns

[webfact]

Covid-19 second wave to hit year-end spending by Bt16 billion, economist warns

By The Nation

 

A tourist looks out at the Khanom-Sichon Sea in Nakhon Si Thammarat province on December 10.

 

The second wave of the Covid-19 outbreak will cost local tourism around Bt16 billion during the New Year holidays, says an economist.

 

Anusorn Tamajai, former dean at Rangsit University’s Faculty of Economics, estimated that the second wave of Covid-19 infections would cost the local tourism industry Bt14.1 to  Bt16.9 billion in lost revenue during the New Year festival.

 

His analysis comes amid rising cases of local infections after some infected patients entered Thailand illegally from Myanmar. While the United States has the most number of cases with over 16.5 million, followed by India -- almost 10 million -- Thailand ranks 151st among countries with over 4,000 cases.

 

He was optimistic that the number of new cases in Thailand would be contained as the government had put in place an effective tracing system. 

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha earlier insisted that Thailand had not yet experienced a second wave. 

 

Anusorn, however, said that concerns over the rising number of new cases was expected to discourage many people from travelling and spending during the year-end holiday season.

 

Revenue from Thai travellers during the last New Year was Bt28 billion. Many research houses have estimated that Thai consumers will cut their spending significantly while those who live in Bangkok are expected to spend about Bt30 billion, but it is below the average spending of the past two decades, he said.

 

Anusorn, however, added that if Thailand could not contain the second wave the Thai economy next year may grow less than 4 per cent, while the rising number of new cases in Thailand’s trading partner countries would adversely affect Thai exports up to the first quarter of next year.

 

The National Economic and Social Development Council has forecast that the Thai economy will expand 4 to 5 per cent next year.

 

Regarding financial markets, Anusorn predicted that gold price would test a barrier at US$2,000 per ounce, as investors are worried about risk assets stemming from the delay in the US stimulus package and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit.

 

In the short run, gold price next week may move up to $1,845 to 1,850 per ounce, he said, while gold bar in Thailand may rise to Bt26,150 to 26,600 per baht weight.

 

The Thai baht is expected to appreciate further after it rose almost 4 per cent last month. The baht could rise to Bt29.50 per dollar by the end of this year, strengthening from the Bt30 level, he predicted. Foreign investors had net buys of Thai stocks worth Bt50 billion over one month and bonds worth Bt20 billion. They could sell Thai financial assets to make a profit before Christmas, he warned.

 

Meanwhile, the rising  unemployed benefit claims in the US had put high pressure on the dollar, he said.

 

The US economy has shown signs of decelerating at the end of this year. The return of the global economy to normal next year would depend on the effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccines, he said.

 

He did not expect the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan to further loosen monetary policies during their meeting next week.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30399541

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-12-14

 

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[Olivie]

Quote

Revenue from Thai travellers during the last New Year was Bt28 billion. Many research houses have estimated that Thai consumers will cut their spending significantly while those who live in Bangkok are expected to spend about Bt30 billion, but it is below the average spending of the past two decades, he said.

 

Last year all thai spent Bt28billion, and this year they will spend less but people living in bangkok will spend Bt30 billion? Am I missing something?

[Crash999]

Make those 9 karaoke girls cover the missing 16b! 

[madmitch]

Is it really a second wave?

[chang1]

5 hours ago, Olivie said:

 

Last year all thai spent Bt28billion, and this year they will spend less but people living in bangkok will spend Bt30 billion? Am I missing something?

Is it not Bt28 billion revenue gained from taxes and Bt30 billion spent in Bangkok?

[Hayduke]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Covid-19 second wave to hit year-end spending by Bt16 billion, economist warns

 

There is no reason to be concerned….

 

The government’s brilliantly conceived, meticulously calculated, and flawlessly executed tourism stimulus plans are guaranteed to produce in excess of 52 gazillian bajillion Baht over the next 30 days. This will more than compensate for any minor and temporary "second wave".

 

But a 'state of emergency' still remains absolutely necessary.....just to make sure.

 

 

 

[chang1]

2 minutes ago, Hayduke said:

But a 'state of emergency' still remains absolutely necessary.....just to make sure.

...the opposition is kept suppressed. 

[mrfill]

Oh excellent - another faceless wonder throwing out more huge numbers. It must be one of the fastest growing industries in Thailand and I'm sure Thailand can now be promoted as the hub of huge numbers (according to 42 million surveys).

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Many research houses have estimated that Thai consumers will cut their spending significantly while those who live in Bangkok are expected to spend about Bt30 billion,

I'm amazed that anyone anywhere is spending anything on non essentials. IMO we haven't seen anything yet re economic collapse, and the worst is yet to come.

 

Just because the vaccine has been rolled out doesn't mean it's the end of corona by a long shot, IMO.

 

 

[johnarth]

mrfill there are hundreds of unie students receiving something from Royals every week all these people need jobs so we get these big numbers

[miamiman123]

The coming festival??

better worry about all of the next five years

[JeffP]

Second wave, this will probably shut the country down for another year.

[loong]

6 hours ago, Olivie said:

 

Last year all thai spent Bt28billion, and this year they will spend less but people living in bangkok will spend Bt30 billion? Am I missing something?

Yes, you are missing something in the part of the post that you quoted.

Quote

Revenue from Thai travellers during the last New Year was Bt28 billion.

Thai travellers spent 28 billion. Obviously those who didn't travel spent more.

[Misterwhisper]

6 hours ago, Olivie said:

 

Last year all thai spent Bt28billion, and this year they will spend less but people living in bangkok will spend Bt30 billion? Am I missing something?

That's why Mr. Anusorn is called a noted economist. He's very economical with figures.

[BigStar]

6 hours ago, Olivie said:

 

Last year all thai spent Bt28billion, and this year they will spend less but people living in bangkok will spend Bt30 billion? Am I missing something?

Totally. He didn't say all thai in the first instance. Go back and read what he said.

[BigStar]

2 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said:

That's why Mr. Anusorn is called a noted economist. He's very economical with figures.

More like why some posters need at minimum new reading glasses. At minimum. ????

[tomazbodner]

20 minutes ago, loong said:

Yes, you are missing something in the part of the post that you quoted.

Thai travellers spent 28 billion. Obviously those who didn't travel spent more.

Was going to say that people spend on other things as well, not just travel...

[Guderian]

Hang on, three days ago a guy from the Disease Control Department was saying that they've now dealt with all the covid cases caused by the Thai tarts crossing the border illegally, so where did this "second wave" come from all of a sudden?

 

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1196342-every-covid-patient-in-thailand-accounted-for-confirms-disease-control-dept-chief/?utm_source=newsletter-20201212-0638&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

 

[Traubert]

1 minute ago, Guderian said:

Hang on, three days ago a guy from the Disease Control Department was saying that they've now dealt with all the covid cases caused by the Thai tarts crossing the border illegally, so where did this "second wave" come from all of a sudden?

 

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1196342-every-covid-patient-in-thailand-accounted-for-confirms-disease-control-dept-chief/?utm_source=newsletter-20201212-0638&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

 

Mr Anusorn made it up.

 

He should be a member of TVF. Cant see anything good.

[Rimmer]

A troll post has been removed

[NorthernRyland]

For reference, look at the second waves in the US. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-where-is-the-us-on-the-curve/

 

If this does indeed happen to Thailand and there was already a first wave then what will the impact be? 20 dead? This feels incredibly overblown to me does it not? I really wish we had reliable mass testing of the Thai population so we could be sure how deep COVID has already penetrated.

[oompie69]

2 hours ago, madmitch said:

Is it really a second wave?

If not for the actions taken and all the attention the media gave this, would anybody even be aware that there had been a first wave? I doubt it 

[ThailandRyan]

56 minutes ago, Misterwhisper said:

That's why Mr. Anusorn is called a noted economist. He's very economical with figures.

Lots of new Mercedes, BMW, and Lamborghini's to be bought as gifts in Bangkok it appears.

[pixelaoffy]

This military junta gov backed by spineless Thai politicians have failed miserably to support their people and businesses during pandemic! There was supposed to have been a 1.5 trillion baht support package  for the country , what happened ? Thailand really is the pits with self serving politicians , hiding behind a certain person with it's blind support..

[Snig27]

Inane guessing from a nobody it seems - and yet it gets headlines. 

[Katipo]

I and some friends will be heading north to Mae Hong Son over Christmas/New Year. Unless the number of local transmissions starts to escalate significantly, we will not be cancelling our plans. We won't be taking public transport, and hand gels, masks, and sensible social distancing measures will be implemented.

My heart bleeds for the resorts and other businesses up there who were counting on an income boost from the holiday season to survive, so actual quantifiable risk, and not fear or panic, will be the deciding factor.

[hellohello123]

Maybe hero expats can turn things around since expats seem to be able to turn around tourism!

 

 

 

[digger70]

7 hours ago, Olivie said:

 

Last year all thai spent Bt28billion, and this year they will spend less but people living in bangkok will spend Bt30 billion? Am I missing something?

No ,,, they are just Bad in Math    ????

[Dumbastheycome]

7 hours ago, Olivie said:

 

Last year all thai spent Bt28billion, and this year they will spend less but people living in bangkok will spend Bt30 billion? Am I missing something?

'Revenue from Thai travellers '

[BigStar]

57 minutes ago, Guderian said:

Hang on, three days ago a guy from the Disease Control Department was saying that they've now dealt with all the covid cases caused by the Thai tarts crossing the border illegally, so where did this "second wave" come from all of a sudden?

 

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1196342-every-covid-patient-in-thailand-accounted-for-confirms-disease-control-dept-chief/?utm_source=newsletter-20201212-0638&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

 

 

What he said. Precisely your Thai tarts crossing the border illegally. Not much of a second wave but for Thailand.

 

rising cases of local infections after some infected patients entered Thailand illegally from Myanmar

 

Any case causes a dampening of tourist sentiment, as verified earlier by an earlier case in Chiang Rai or thereabouts. So he's referring to that:

 

concerns over the rising number of new cases was expected to discourage many people from travelling and spending during the year-end holiday season.

 

Should be quite understandable here, as we have so many panics of our own over some statement or another that gets misunderstood or blown wildly out of proportion. We had someone here recently moaning about air pollution in Pattaya, which will no doubt discourage thousands from considering Pattaya as a vacation or retirement destination. ????