SURVEY: How long before tourism returns to normal?

[evadgib]

I ticked 'this year' assuming everyone would realize there's a typo in the OP & it refers to 2021. I remain of the opinion that this covid lark is nothing more than seasonal flu that has somehow been grossly over inflated in tandem with the US election & one way or another will miraculously do a U turn from the end of January. 

[Cobra666]

Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum and Dr. Bill Gates says life will never turn back to normal. 

[Somtamnication]

With one province in lockdown and another possibly, we are doomed!

[brianthainess]

When will Normal Tourism return? I would answer between 15yrs to Never.

[Pilotman]

1 hour ago, FritsSikkink said:

"Normal tourism will return this year, probably in the second half."

Probably mean next year as it is December.

The number of aircraft and therefore airline  seats available worldwide  is now a fraction of what they were pre covid and that is not something that can be changed over night, it will take years.  If the seats aren't there, then pre covid numbers of travellers are just not possible.   

[simple1]

As another member suggested, commencing approx 1/11/21. But...as an example in the past few days in Sydney we are advised incoming aircrews have not been staying in the one hotel for ease of compliance security, but twenty different hotels based upon 'good faith'. Likely will be continuing instances of total stupidity by authorities, so more likely based upon 'travel bubbles' for quite a while, so long as no enforcement of quarantine at either end. Also reasonably priced travel insurance for Covid related matters, as mass tourism is price sensitive.

[FritsSikkink]

25 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

The number of aircraft and therefore airline  seats available worldwide  is now a fraction of what they were pre covid and that is not something that can be changed over night, it will take years.  If the seats aren't there, then pre covid numbers of travellers are just not possible.   

They have stored the aircraft, will need maintenance, don't know how long that will take but it is not likely that there will be a huge need from day one.

[Pilotman]

5 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

They have stored the aircraft, will need maintenance, don't know how long that will take but it is not likely that there will be a huge need from day one.

No they haven't, they are in the dessert prior to being scrapped, mainly B747s, all types, B777, 100s, 200s and some 300s,  A340s, A300s and A380s.  They will not come back into service. 

[Swimfan]

3 hours ago, skorts said:

Whilst the vaccine will no doubt help the key driver to the return of mass tourism in Thailand is the end of compulsory quarantine. The vast majority of tourists in Thailand come for up to 2 to 3 weeks.
Are any of these tourists going to spend 14 nights in quarantine which they have to pay for? Of course they will not. 
It would be interesting to know how many of the 39.9 million tourists who visited Thailand in 2019 fall into this category. 
British Airways (BA) cancelling the re-introduction of flights from London to Bangkok until 1st November 2021is quite telling. This was done before the latest surge of cases in the U.K. and introduction of Tier 4 restrictions. 
BA clearly thinks the route is not viable until late next year, at the earliest. 
Even once the vaccine starts to be rolled out to the Thai population from 1st May next year it will take many months to achieve the levels of protection to achieve herd immunity. 
Thailand has also only ordered enough vaccine at this stage for 13 million people (2 doses each) so that represents only c.20% of the population. Whilst it will understandably be given to front line line health workers and the most vulnerable is this enough protection of the Thai population for compulsory quarantine to be removed?

The dilemma facing the Thai Government is the vaccine does not stop people who have had it from passing on the virus so compulsory quarantine with compulsory testing during that period is the only way to be sure people entering Thailand do not have the virus. 
I think it will be November 2021 at the earliest until any form of mass tourism returns but the numbers will be driven by the need to quarantine on arrival. 

 

You’re assuming that vaccinated people can’t carry or transmit the virus. That is still not known. Vaccination is unlikely to change requirements for quarantine in the medium term until more is know as to how long immunity will last or as above can vaccinated people still transmit the virus. 

[mr mr]

1 hour ago, kenk24 said:

If you made this prediction 10 years ago, you might have been on to something... predicting yesterdays news is no a difficult task... 

ya ? who will the tourists be then ? 

[skorts]

22 minutes ago, Swimfan said:

You’re assuming that vaccinated people can’t carry or transmit the virus. That is still not known. Vaccination is unlikely to change requirements for quarantine in the medium term until more is know as to how long immunity will last or as above can vaccinated people still transmit the virus. 

I am not assuming vaccinated people can’t carry or transmit the virus - quite the opposite, in the same way the flu virus vaccination does not stop the flu virus being transmitted by those who have been vaccinated. 

As I stated in my original post:

 

“The dilemma facing the Thai Government is the vaccine does not stop people who have had it from passing on the virus”

[Jaxxper]

Too many variables. Vaccines, restrictions, paperwork , confidence , exchange rates, air fares, etc etc to guess realistically. Even my crystal ball said “ Yang mai ruu” . ⚗️. One thing is for sure it will not be 1Q 2021.

[Bradmeister]

Not going to be the same here, or anywhere else on the Planet. 

 

More lock downs here, Austrailia, and Europe.

 

The dreaded 2nd wave comes. 

 

 

[alant]

Did I hear TAT say by February 2021

[Kelsall]

Interesting poll.  On May 31, I predicted Thailand would return to quarantineless entry in "2-3 years" (see below) and received a lot of laughter from the low IQ crowd.  One of those went so far as to say my prediction was so crazy it would not even be an outlier.  This poll indicates 85% feel we will return to normal tourism in 2 years or more.  Are we all crazy?  No.  Thailand will return to normal tourism in about 2 years, as the vast majority of us believe.

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Kelsall

[xtrnuno41]

That depends on the new virus they found in the UK, 70 % more effective in spreading then the old one.

Not yet known if it is more harmful and if it can be "killed" by the vaccine. 

[Jiggo]

5 hours ago, Liverpoolfan said:

It will be a decade before it returns to anything resembling 'normal tourist levels.'

Which one?

[bermondburi]

Depends on quarantine going, or travel bubble with China. 

 

They're the 2 biggies. 

[1FinickyOne]

2 hours ago, mr mr said:

ya ? who will the tourists be then ? 

It will most likely be determined by strength of currencies and economies and proximity will be factored into the equation.. somewhat as it has been in the past, that would be my guess. 

[Pracha Duang]

Great news for the US stock market and cryptocurrency!! Wohoooo! The longer these lockdowns carry on, the more stimulus, the more debt countries take on, the more money they will print, the greater the inflation. Inflation gets hidden in equities and real estate so the more exponential my networth will skyrocket. Literally, my networth has gonna up 1000% this year just by staying at home????. What an amazing time to be alive if you own stocks and cryptocurrency and property in the West!! Let’s keep this going for as long as possible!! 

[vandeventer]

Honesty, I think tourism will be back in 6 months or sooner. With the vaccine out in most countries and the air lines going broke, the same with the hotels . We need to get things hopping again. These vaccines sound very good, so lets take them and get back in the land of the living. My arm is out and my sleeves are rolled up. Now just order some dam good vaccines.

[mr mr]

31 minutes ago, Pracha Duang said:

stocks and cryptocurrency and property in the West

got 2 of the 3. waiting on the alt run in the coming weeks to really cash in. 

[Nanaplaza666]

6 hours ago, rwill said:

We have had many pandemics in the past.  Things always went back to normal.  Humans have short memories.

Like who remembers Russia and the USA shooting down airliners?

Russia shot down a airliner with a lot of dutch , uk and other people on there not to long ago . So this is still happening . Don't know your point . 

[newnative]

7 hours ago, mr mr said:

anyone who thinks tourism will return to normal is living in a dream world. the virus has fundamentally changed our species. mass tourism from the west will not be coming back to thailand like it was before. focus on your new market and move on. china and india. 

 

 

     This was happening already, pre-covid.  2019 tourist numbers:  East Asia:  16.6 million.  ASEAN: 10.6 million.  South Asia:  2.3 million.  Europe: 6.7 million.  Americas:  1.6 million.   Mass tourism in Thailand is now Asia-dominated.    If vaccines get distributed in countries in the first half of 2021, we might see Asian tourists return in some numbers at the end of next year, along with some of the snow birds.  

[Ireland32]

Breakout in Samui  Prakan they Dis avidoe of whole area 600+ plus in e Buriram one BKK they shores a video of packerd SPrakana out of thousands I saw on Thai with mask , geezus

[Ireland32]

58 minutes ago, Nanaplaza666 said:

Russia shot down a airliner with a lot of dutch , uk and other people on there not to long ago . So this is still happening . Don't know your point . 

USA Iran eons ago American Basher

[Mr Meeseeks]

2 hours ago, Pracha Duang said:

Great news for the US stock market and cryptocurrency!! Wohoooo! The longer these lockdowns carry on, the more stimulus, the more debt countries take on, the more money they will print, the greater the inflation. Inflation gets hidden in equities and real estate so the more exponential my networth will skyrocket. Literally, my networth has gonna up 1000% this year just by staying at home????. What an amazing time to be alive if you own stocks and cryptocurrency and property in the West!! Let’s keep this going for as long as possible!! 

Bitcoin is the new global currency. People are still struggling to understand the technology and economics.

 

Fiat currencies like the USD are being creating on the back of debts and have no value. They are transitioning from hard to soft currency, and people need to be aware their worth is gradually being eroded. 

 

Cryptocurrency is the new money and Bitcoin is hard money. Just as bartering was replaced by early money such as sea-shells, beads, then metals, then gold then fiat backed by gold, crypto will replace the monetary system as we know it. It is inevitable.

 

This pandemic is merely hastening the inevitable collapse of the monetary system and civilisation as we know it.

[FritsSikkink]

5 hours ago, Pilotman said:

No they haven't, they are in the dessert prior to being scrapped, mainly B747s, all types, B777, 100s, 200s and some 300s,  A340s, A300s and A380s.  They will not come back into service. 

A couple of days ago there was an article about the maintenance they needed. You don't scrap airplanes when they are still good, you are talking absolute nonsense.

[greenhornfarang]

1 hour ago, vandeventer said:

Honesty, I think tourism will be back in 6 months or sooner. With the vaccine out in most countries and the air lines going broke, the same with the hotels . We need to get things hopping again. These vaccines sound very good, so lets take them and get back in the land of the living. My arm is out and my sleeves are rolled up. Now just order some dam good vaccines.

 

 

LOL I wish I could be a optimistic as you, but with the way things are going and the message being portrayed is that even after the vaccine things will not go back to normal as per:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/fauci-why-still-need-masks-social-distancing-after-covid-19-vaccine.html

 

The consistent message across seems to be, that the freedoms given up so quickly are not going to be given back rather easily:

 

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-your-life-will-and-wont-change-after-getting-the-covid-19-vaccine

 

Also this new strain mean they have to scrap the current vaccines and start over, back to the drawing board:

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/new-faster-spreading-strain-of-covid-19-confirmed-in-britain-1.5238619

 

It is very likely that this may turn into a perpetual witch hunt for the boogeyman covid with new strains mutating with every new vaccine, launching us into perpetual lockdowns and curfews.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/covid-mask-use-and-social-distancing-will-likely-have-to-continue-until-next-winter-says-dr-fauci-b1774469.html

 

It is going to be a rather unpleasant realization for some that this maybe isn't about covid, a virus that has 99.6 recovery rate for those under 70. 

 

One thing covid will surely help with is global warming, environment, getting rid of us pesky dirty covid ridden plane flying international travelling farangs and the great reset:

 

https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/

 

Oh and enjoy your gas guzzlers while you can:

 

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/The-Post-COVID-Great-Reset-Wont-Be-Fueled-By-Renewables.html

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/21/uk-plans-to-bring-forward-ban-on-fossil-fuel-vehicles-to-2030

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/gas-vehicles-ban-electric-quebec-1.5802374

 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2020/10/22/federal-bill-seeks-ban-gas-powered-vehicles-2035/3726009001/

 

 

 

 

 

Mass tourism -- this will forever be just a memory of how things used to be in the past, a sweet dream that some of us were fortunate enough to have experienced before all this. RIP walking street, what is the point of living anymore ????

[foreverlomsak]

17 hours ago, Scott said:

how long before tourist numbers return to normal levels?

how long is a piece of string