Worst case scenario: 18,000 daily new COVID cases by mid January

[tandor]

...well you behaved as if you were exempt from infection..bragged to the world and WHO whom patted you on the back and said you were doing a good job; but you weren't testing anywhere enough persons; now your crying foul..but you failed miserably in allowing illegal activities such as illegal border crossings, no quarantine, allowing positive cases to legally enter the kingdom, running illegal casinos, transporting illegal immigrants from another country into the kingdom, human trafficking, exposing a large number of patrons to positive carriers at a cancelled sporting event that was allowed to go ahead..all about the money at the expense of our health.

Shame, shame on you.  When are you ever going to get the message?

[PGSan]

3 minutes ago, tandor said:

...well you behaved as if you were exempt from infection..bragged to the world and WHO whom patted you on the back and said you were doing a good job; but you weren't testing anywhere enough persons; now your crying foul..but you failed miserably in allowing illegal activities such as illegal border crossings, no quarantine, allowing positive cases to legally enter the kingdom, running illegal casinos, transporting illegal immigrants from another country into the kingdom, human trafficking, exposing a large number of patrons to positive carriers at a cancelled sporting event that was allowed to go ahead..all about the money at the expense of our health.

Shame, shame on you.  When are you ever going to get the message?

Blah blah blah????   Who/what is all this about?  

[crankshaft]

I can not believe that only this month of December that the Chinese plague is now on the rise in Thailand...with the number of Chinese tourists in Jan Feb Mar....The must be fudging of the numbers then...

[SupermarineS6B]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

I have a simple question? Why was so much effort made to keep foreigners from entering the country, and so little effort made in keeping migrant workers from entering? 

We all know what it is, it's that disgusting abomination that's been allowed to run rampant throughout the country, pure racism.......  I know i shouldn't say this but i feel it's time for madam Karma to enter the stage and level the high and mighty.......  It'll be interesting to see who runs and hides under the bed the fastest......  Anutin's gone, Prayut's on the move.......  The tourist ?    Quality.........    Rats and ships come to mind.......  

Edited December 29, 2020 by SupermarineS6B

[SupermarineS6B]

8 minutes ago, PGSan said:

Blah blah blah????   Who/what is all this about?  

Those that cannot be criticized........    or the "Mediator"  will throw a wobbly.......  

[George Aylesham]

50 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

Simple answer: follow the money.

Who ultimately owns the businesses which employ the migrant workers. What are their connections to and relationships ("influence") with those who make decisions.

 

As ever, it is the basis of how things are run. This has always had the potential ( at times realised) to harm the country; perhaps it is not too great an exaggeration to suggest in present circumstances, it has the potential to ruin the country.

This sounds like an exact description of the practice of the current UK government.

[Mavideol]

3 hours ago, dcnx said:

They don’t have the capacity to test that many people per day. 

they do   555.... trying to check people's temperature with broken/not reliable machines its their way of testing (this morning the guy at Makro took 5 tries with 2 different machine after 5th try he quit and so did I 555)

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Worst case scenario: 18,000 daily new COVID cases by mid January

and yet they are preparing for SongKran in April, what a bunch of no brainers   555

[SupermarineS6B]

30 minutes ago, crankshaft said:

I can not believe that only this month of December that the Chinese plague is now on the rise in Thailand...with the number of Chinese tourists in Jan Feb Mar....The must be fudging of the numbers then...

One good thing about all this, China will not be allowing Chinese tourists in and out of Thailand to re-infect China, so the boys at the trough better get the Farang red carpet out and dust it off.........  Chinese tourism's over for a few years..... 

Edited December 29, 2020 by SupermarineS6B

[snoop1130]

7 Days before COVID Measure Revision

 

 

BANGKOK, Dec 29 (TNA) — Authorities may decide in seven days to intensify COVID-19 control measures; otherwise, new cases of infection can rise by as many as 18,000 a day in mid-January.

 

Dr Taweesilp Visanuyothin, spokesman of the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration, gave the timeframe and warning after the CCSA considered possible scenarios of the latest local COVID-19 outbreak, presented by public health authorities.

 

In the scenario where nothing is done to control the disease, he said, the daily new COVID-19 cases could soar by 18,000 by Jan 14.

 

Full Story: https://tna.mcot.net/english-news-608318

 

-- © Copyright TNA 2020-12-29

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[kensisaket]

What information has not been disseminated that makes these numbers even possible?  From The Thai rumor mill in Issan that "fish factory" is actually a nationwide self pickup distribution center. Considering the number of provinces that have active cases there's probably a lot of truth to that rumor.  Instead of telling me there's going to be 18000 new cases daily in the near future how about telling me what has been/is being done to isolate that fish/Covid 19 distribution point.  

[HashBrownHarry]

1 hour ago, dave moir said:

First time around only about 3,500 cases?

Now could be 1000 to 10,000 per day what's changed so much?????????????

more testing?

[TooBigToFit]

It's virus math. The Dr has the world infection rates to base Thailand's predictions on and now there are more serious mutations allowing for higher infections.

 

 

[Phulublub]

3 hours ago, vandeventer said:

Again we have to look at the kill rate of this virus not the infection rate.

No, we do not.  If healthcare systems are overwhelmed then people will die from all manner of ailmets.

 

PH

[ourmanflint]

1 hour ago, meltonpie said:

Interesting calculator, thank you.

 

I did try it myself and found that even with an R rate of 1.5 the figure of 18,000 per day seems quite possible.  Much depends on when day 0 is.  If day 0 was mid November the numbers change significantly when comparing to day 0 being now.

Yes, I took today as day zero, but with 120 cases

[KateSpade]

I'm more interested in the death rate...

[QPRFC]

Somebody should tell TAT because they are still projecting 20 billion tourists next quarter bringing in 80 trillion baht or something similar ???? 

[DavisH]

4 hours ago, dcnx said:

They don’t have the capacity to test that many people per day. 

And their capacity is....?

[Donga]

Worse case won't eventuate.

With general community discipline (compared to Europe as US), widespread masks, reasonable contact tracing (far superior to Europe and US), strong quarantine systems, health volunteers and advantage of the climate, expect will be much closer to his low projection of 1,000 per day than the moderate 8,000 or the 18,000 fear headline.

Let's see shall we.

[ourmanflint]

2 hours ago, PGSan said:

What is the initial value used for this calculation?  Do we know this figure?

Apparently they have used December 18th as day zero, instead of today when the report came out, so that would push things along. An R number of around 2.8 would be enough and is not too far fetched

[rabas]

23 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

Yes, I took today as day zero, but with 120 cases

I wasn't sure if the day0 entry is total active infections, or daily new cases (infection rate). Maybe the first. Thailand's daily cases is 155 today. Not sure how to get total active infections.

 

Any way, thanks for the calculator, it will be handy when Thailand hits millions.

[ourmanflint]

3 minutes ago, rabas said:

I wasn't sure if the day0 entry is total active infections, or daily new cases (infection rate). Maybe the first. Thailand's daily cases is 155 today. Not sure how to get total active infections.

 

Any way, thanks for the calculator, it will be handy when Thailand hits millions.

If you click on a bar and then move R number slider, you can watch exposed number vary over time, exposed being carrying the virus/testing positive ( at least that is how I understood it)

Edited December 29, 2020 by ourmanflint

[Asking for a friend]

Imagine a virus so deadly that you can get it and never know you had it unless you get tested and if you even get symptoms, you will survive 99.93% of the time.

 

That’s it, burn the constitutions of each nation and shut down and dismantle the world economy.

 

The only thing that can save us is global communism with a wealthy powerful elite class ruling over it with compliant masses of workersumers doing as they are told.

 

I’m sold. Do it for gran.

[dinsdale]

3 hours ago, time2093 said:

So you think in a media frenzy country like Thailand 200,000 or even 20,000 positive cases wouldn't make any wave. Hospitals would keep a tight lid on things if they see those type of numbers visiting their ER. Fact is Thailand did do a good job containing the virus and catching it quarantine unlike the the west.

The west was honest but not at the beginning. They too fudged the figures. Thing is western media and experts started to wonder about how the numbers were being done. Things changed and numbers went up. This is now a historical fact.

[shackleton]

Well I think we all know what is coming after the New Years holiday is over

The Provincial Governors will start enforcing the travel and drink restrictions 

Just surprised its not happening now

Proberly  to late now as most people will be travelling to their home or holiday destinations in the coming days 

[Madeline Thompson]

This is fear-mongering at its worst - what are these statistics based on specifically? Why 18,000 a day - rather than 800?  What we are seeing here is an extremely paternalistic government, threatening with a big stick, shouting scary stuff to lesser beings.  I think - hope - this government can do better, that they are capable of taking a more measured and intelligent approach towards a pandemic resurgence (elsewhere), suggesting it's not quite time to celebrate the end of Covid. A cautionary approach perhaps - be aware and careful - will work much better.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Madeline Thompson

[ripstanley]

4 hours ago, Golden Triangle said:

At the time of writing there is no curfew in Chonburi province, I have a sneaking suspicion that that could change very soon, as @Guderian noted, left to their own devices the governors will opt for the most draconian measures they can think of, having said that, I believe that a 10pm - 5am curfew is about as much use as a chocolate teapot, it really needs to be from about 5pm - 8am to be effective, one person from each household allowed to go shopping, schools shut and stiff penalties for people not wearing masks and social distancing. 

 

The only way to stop the spread is to prevent Inter province travel and make people stay at home, as unattractive as it sounds that & mass vaccination are probably the best way to deal with this.

 

I know many will be against this approach but I personally see it as the only way forward.

I totally agree with your comments. The only big but is that non Thais will have to pay between 5,000 to 10,000 baht for the vaccine. This will be a big hole in the mass vaccination as many will be unable to pay.

[bwpage3]

3 hours ago, time2093 said:

So you think in a media frenzy country like Thailand 200,000 or even 20,000 positive cases wouldn't make any wave. Hospitals would keep a tight lid on things if they see those type of numbers visiting their ER. Fact is Thailand did do a good job containing the virus and catching it quarantine unlike the the west.

If Thailand did such a good job, why is it actively spreading and getting worse?

 

Do you really trust the government to report the facts or even know what the facts are?

[bwpage3]

26 minutes ago, Madeline Thompson said:

This is fear-mongering at its worst - what are these statistics based on specifically? Why 18,000 a day - rather than 800?  What we are seeing here is an extremely paternalistic government, threatening with a big stick, shouting scary stuff to lesser beings.  I think - hope - this government can do better, that they are capable of taking a more measured and intelligent approach towards a pandemic resurgence (elsewhere), suggesting it's not quite time to celebrate the end of Covid. A cautionary approach perhaps - be aware and careful - will work much better.

No it is not fear mongering.

 

Did you ever ask yourself why most of the advanced countries in the world have millions of cases, and Thailand, with a huge influx of Chinese visitors, had hardly any?

 

Then ask yourself what propensity for testing did/does Thailand actually have? 

 

Where did they get the test kits?

 

There has never been any testing of anyone in our area is Isaan.

 

How many other areas have never been tested?

 

The results Thailand has never reported, is what is the actual percentage of the population tested?

 

This number is probably extremely low and now that they are testing more people for what ever reason, they are finding covid spread is in fact an issue.

 

As people from 1 infected area or market can travel all over Thailand, there is a huge chance of infection everywhere.

 

The big question is whether or not they will test or have the test kits to test 100,000's of people or just test 1,000 and give the all clear?

 

For almost a year they claim limited covid. Lockdown tourism, venues, etc.

 

Then blame covid on some migrants?

 

Maybe they are just getting serious about testing now, almost a year later and the real story will come out?

 

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by bwpage3

[Suua]

6 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

If Thailand did such a good job, why is it actively spreading and getting worse?

 

Do you really trust the government to report the facts or even know what the facts are?

Thank you....exactly. 

Do people seriously believe reports from an unelected dick tator ship.

They deliberately avoided testing to protect the tourist income.

Now they are forced to... hey presto.