Thai economy may lose $10 billion in Q1 from new virus outbreak

By Orathai Sriring and Satawasin Staporncharnchai

 

FILE PHOTO: People wearing face masks shop inside the Sampheng wholesale market as Thai government eases isolation measures, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Bangkok, Thailand, June 10, 2020. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) -Thailand's economy could lose as much as 300 billion baht ($10 billion) in the first quarter after its largest coronavirus outbreak saw consumer mood sink to a five-month low in December, according to the commerce university.

 

The consumer confidence index dropped for the first time in three months to 50.1 in December - when the new spread was detected - from 52.4 in November, as consumers feared a surge in inflections would hit the economy and jobs, a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce showed on Thursday.

 

"If the situation does not improve in January, consumer confidence could drop to a record low over the next two months," university president Thanavath Phonvichai told a briefing.

 

The index hit a record low of 39.2 last April during the peak of the first coronavirus wave.

 

The impact of the new outbreak is expected at 200 billion to 300 billion baht in the first quarter, Thanavath said.

 

New virus restrictions , including closures of entertainment venues and schools in the capital Bangkok and other provinces, could hamper Thailand's fledgling economic recovery, analysts say.

 

"It's likely that the economy will contract in the first quarter, by 4% if there is a soft lockdown but by 11.3% if it is a hard lockdown," Thanavath said.

 

The university now predicts the economy will grow 2.2% this year versus 2.8% earlier, he said, adding the government would need at least 200 billion baht to shore up the economy.

 

On Thursday, Thailand confirmed 305 new infections and one new death, bringing its total to 9,636 cases and 67 fatalities since it first found the virus early last year.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-01-07

 

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Economy expected to grow 2.5-3% but not recover fully: NIDA prof

By The Nation

 

 

The economy is expected to expand between 2.5 and 3 per cent this year, said Assoc Prof Dr Montree Socatiyanurak. He is director of the National Institute of Development Administration's Advanced Master of Management Programme.

 

He said the economy is not expected to totally recovery due to uncertainty in containing the second wave of Covid-19 in Thailand and the strengthening baht, which will impact the export sector.

 

Meanwhile, the tourism industry is expected to begin to recover late this year after a vaccine becomes available.

 

Montree said the new round of Covid-19 infections would affect the economy in the first quarter this year, which might see higher contraction compared to the same period last year.

 

Thailand had earned revenue from tourism in the first quarter last year during the months of January and February, when the country welcomed around 7 million tourists.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30400856

 

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2021-01-08

 

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Pretty sure these predictions are going down daily now as reality starts to bite.

What a complete and utter load of ballocks, the exact opposite of what's said in this article is unfolding right now.

11 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

If the situation does not improve in January,

It won't.

Good news for the mystical fabled rising baht no doubt ???? 

Is that it? The UK spent that on a call centre to polite request people stay at home when they had Covid. One of the biggest waste of monies known in history. 

 

So if Thailand get away with the cost of a call centre, then it's done well. 

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

New virus restrictions , including closures of entertainment venues and schools in the capital Bangkok and other provinces, could hamper Thailand's fledgling economic recovery, analysts say.

My kid's school in CM closed yesterday until further notice.

It's not just Bangkok, I'm expecting the whole country to be in hard lockdown to be announced over the next few days.

There was no recovery only false promises while a few business still struggled on until they exhausted all their savings and credit.

Lockdown looming, Baht still too high.  Recipe for economic disaster.

Travel bubbles!  The answer is travel bubbles.

The resurgence of the virus can be directly attributable to the Governments 

corrupt employees accepting bribes to allow people to enter the country withour quarantine 

and allowing illegal "casinos" to operate all over the place.

Time to call a spade a spade.

In regard to the Bahts strength one must remember that many developed countries ( the basis of currency  movements ) are in far worse position than Thailand due to their massive ongoing 

handouts to all sectors of their communities that would normally be contributing to the coffers