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Thai Q4 contraction seen slowing to 5.4% year-on-year, recovery slow: Reuters poll


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Thai Q4 contraction seen slowing to 5.4% year-on-year, recovery slow: Reuters poll

By Orathai Sriring

 

2021-02-11T090932Z_1_LYNXMPEH1A0JS_RTROPTP_4_THAILAND-ECONOMY-GDP.JPG

FILE PHOTO: Workers work at a construction site in central Bangkok, Thailand, December 12, 2016. Picture taken December 12, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy likely shrank at a slower annual pace in the final quarter of 2020 than in the previous three months, but it remained set for the deepest full-year slump in more than two decades due to the coronavirus pandemic, a Reuters poll showed.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy has gradually recovered since mid-2020 after coronavirus restrictions were eased, but an ongoing travel ban has kept most foreign visitors away and a recent wave of infections dealt a further blow to the nascent recovery.

 

The tourism-reliant economy likely contracted 5.4% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after a 6.4% drop in the September quarter, according to the poll.

 

Quarter-on-quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) likely expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the October-December quarter, after the previous period's 6.5% growth.

 

The economy was expected to have contracted 6.4% in 2020, marking the worst performance since a 7.6% slump in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis.

 

The poll predicted growth of 2.9% this year, with analysts downgrading their forecasts due to fresh outbreaks of the virus detected in December, and Thailan's slow vaccine procurement.

 

Nomura economist Charnon Boonnuch said he forecast "only a modest pickup" in GDP growth to 2.8%, despite low base effects.

 

"The Thai economy in the fourth quarter lost momentum as glimmers of hopes for tourism income faded," said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research at Kasikornbank.

 

"Until vaccination is able to build herd immunity, the economy will continue to require substantial accommodation from both fiscal and monetary policy," he said.

 

In November, the National Economic and Social Development Council, which compiles GDP data, forecast growth of 3.5%-4.5% this year. It will give new projections on Monday.

 

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-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-02-11
 
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21 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

The poll predicted growth of 2.9% this year, with analysts downgrading their forecasts due to fresh outbreaks of the virus detected in December, and Thailan's slow vaccine procurement.

There you go.

Slow vaccine procurement.

Less then 3rd world.  Even Cambodia has started vaccines and Vietnam has 30 million Astrazeneca coming.

Thailand: No one to blame but themselves.

Shameful and sad.

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56 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

There you go.

Slow vaccine procurement.

Less then 3rd world.  Even Cambodia has started vaccines and Vietnam has 30 million Astrazeneca coming.

Thailand: No one to blame but themselves.

Shameful and sad.

And because of their inaction and a better than though attitude Thailand is reaping the great GDP decline they do not want, yet the Thai Baht is still climbing.  Economy is slowing down more and because of the way the second coming of Covid was handled there are more closures and more unemployment.  Tourism has become extinct.

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I'm sorry guys, you need the vaccine even if you are doing fantastic on the pandemic.  

Until there is mass vaccination, the chances of a recovery seems to be improbable.  Everyone on the planet wants them right now.  

What the numbers show us is a large portion of people were in the underground economy when it came to tourism.  

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11 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Quarter-on-quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) likely expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the October-December quarter, after the previous period's 6.5% growth.

Is that like an expansion of 0.8% on top of the 20% gdp tourism loss ? 

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14 hours ago, Blumpie said:

I'm sorry guys, you need the vaccine even if you are doing fantastic on the pandemic.  

Until there is mass vaccination, the chances of a recovery seems to be improbable.  Everyone on the planet wants them right now.  

What the numbers show us is a large portion of people were in the underground economy when it came to tourism.  

Even with the projected roll out of Vaccine from Siam Bioscience starting in June ( if no problems )  its going to be at the very least the start of October before the 50% of population are vaccinated as per plan of 10 Million per month

Most other Countries will have nearly completed their Vaccine programs by October , if not sooner, so sales of Vaccine from SB are going to be minimal.

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Do these numbers make sense?  

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Quarter-on-quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) likely expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in the October-December quarter, after the previous period's 6.5% growth

Does he mean previous quarter or previous years period's 6.5% growth?

 

How  does this report get away with saying slow vaccine procurement? 

Do they complain about this truth in the BKK post? And other mainstream media?

 

My county in the state of Utah says all we get the  phizer vaccine by end of May. Not sure i believe this. 

https://www.ksl.com/article/50104999/every-adult-in-utah-could-be-vaccinated-by-end-of-may-director-says-1299-covid-19-cases-17-deaths-reported-wednesday

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