Thailand braced for infections spike after detecting UK COVID-19 variant

[peter48]

This is sad news. Recall the UK variant spread in mid December from near London ( Kent) and within weeks swept through London and the South East and then outwards across UK. It was mad with hospitals filling quickly and ICUs swamped & medics exhausted by January 1000s per day were dying. 

Lock Down was immediate before Xmas in London and then outwards.

 

This variant was not just killing the elderly but the over 45s especially men.  Medics reported people dying quickly too.  I do not know how BKK hospitals could cope with a similar situation. Nurses would go off shift with patients seemingly recovering but they would die over night. 

 

Take care this version is more virulent and anyone who thinks Covid19 is like Flu is just blind. Its killing thousands of  people daily now in Brazil, India, Peru and Mexico. I do hope Thailand can either miss this ot at least manage this but those smaller  hospitals will be over run in the regions if their ICUs is limited to small bed numbers. 

[Odysseus123]

5 minutes ago, peter48 said:

This is sad news.

Peter 48-your's is a good post but it has been "rolled over" 4 times extra..perhaps the mods could delete the other four..

 

It has been happening to me recently.

[Gandtee]

Thank goodness I'm not the type to wear my country's flag. Let's wait for the 'Blame any body' loonies to pipe up.????

[peter48]

5 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

Peter 48-your's is a good post but it has been "rolled over" 4 times extra..perhaps the mods could delete the other four..

 

It has been happening to me recently.

Yes sorry - the system seemed to slow down & I thought " oh its not gone through" and tried again and again. It was very slow.  

[metisdead]

A post containing content that was copy and pasted from some site without a supporting link has been removed.

 

Some troll posts have been removed. 

[CanterbrigianBangkoker]

20 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Yong said he was puzzled at how community transmission had occurred given Thailand's strict border controls, quarantine and testing protocols

 

Comedy gold Yong, comedy gold... ????

[Suua]

30 minutes ago, Gandtee said:

Thank goodness I'm not the type to wear my country's flag. Let's wait for the 'Blame any body' loonies to pipe up.????

Errrr.....

There is only one to blame.

 

The country who is kept in fear by it's dictatorial, authoritarian regime.

 

The country who has been collecting bat coronavirus's for the past decade and storing them in a facility in the same city the first human cases were found.

 

The country who tried to supress the doctors who were trying to raise the alarm.....

 

The country that tried to cover up 3 other instances of virus outbreaks over the past 60 years.

 

Getting the picture?

 

[KhunMorris]

The amount of false, ill-informed information on this thread is ridiculous.

 

It seems that every sex-pat in Pattaya or up-country in deepest, darkest Issan is suddenly an expert in virology, infectious diseases and vaccinations.

 

The amount of misinformation on here has really hit an all time low and we haven't even began to see the spread of the virus here. Rein it in a bit unless you actually have some proper informed opinions please.

 

Sincerely 

 

Morris 

[Russell17au]

Well, it doesn't matter how the UK mutation got here or where it came from (as many countries have this mutation, not only UK). The main thing now is how to manage it so that it does not blow out into a full country infection. The big thing is that with Songkran actually starting tomorrow night when everyone will be leaving Bangkok for their home villages and their families. How is the government going to stop the spread of this virus? Personally I feel unless they stop all inter-provincial travel and there are roadblocks at every provincial border to stop the travel then there is no chance of stopping the spread of this mutation.

[ThailandRyan]

Reuters just posted an article stating 405 cases today.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-thailand/thailand-reports-405-new-coronavirus-cases-no-new-deaths-idUSKBN2BV0EW

 

This I found Interesting in the article:

 

"Thai experts are puzzled at how it evaded the country’s strict border controls and quarantine system, which has helped keep overall cases to a relatively low 30,310 and deaths at 95.

 

The taskforce said a change in the quarantine period introduced this month, which reduces it to seven or 10 days, instead of the mandatory 14 days, may be reconsidered."

Edited April 8, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Rimmer]

Multiple duplicate posts have been removed

[Russell17au]

ThaiVisa reported yesterday that anyone from a high risk area entering Buriram will have to quarantine for 14 days. The problem that I see with that is "does Buriram have the facilities set up to house anyone in isolation and quarantine for 14 days or will they be told to quarantine at their home for the 14 days. With a main road going through Buriram between the main highway 2 (North-South Highway) and Surin, will those travelling that road be forced into quarantine in Buriram which would stop anyone from going to Surin and out further east to their homes. The Thai Government needs to take control of this and stop all provincial travel instead of passing the buck onto the provincial governors.

[AMFWolfie]

21 hours ago, robblok said:

Its not often that the west (in this case the UK) copies and improves stuff. But just when you when you don't want it they improve and export something ????

 

Anyway this is bad news, it might increase the infection rate a lot.

I'll say it again because the reporting is as clear as mud and misleading "had detected the variant in a family traveling from Britain, who were isolated" What nationality was that family??? because unless they were Thai, that don't apparently need to be tested, every member of that family would have had to have had a negative Covid test before leaving the UK and I cant believe for one minute not one of them came back positive and should never had boarded the flight where they are free to infect anyone on the same flight. Technically they should all have gone into quarantine where it would be picked up but does beg the question how it progressed outside that flight...

 

[roo860]

11 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Probably from a dingy 

Well said 

[robblok]

7 minutes ago, AMFWolfie said:

I'll say it again because the reporting is as clear as mud and misleading "had detected the variant in a family traveling from Britain, who were isolated" What nationality was that family??? because unless they were Thai, that don't apparently need to be tested, every member of that family would have had to have had a negative Covid test before leaving the UK and I cant believe for one minute not one of them came back positive and should never had boarded the flight where they are free to infect anyone on the same flight. Technically they should all have gone into quarantine where it would be picked up but does beg the question how it progressed outside that flight...

 

Why do you think it came from that family. More plausible is that the UK variant is present in countries bordering Thailand. The land border crossings are not secured. Loads of immigrants go over the border. It could have come from there.

 

That it is called the UK variant does not mean it has to come straight from the UK. That variant was just first discovered in the UK but after that or before that (can't be sure) it spread to other countries. But they call it the UK variant because it was first discovered there.

 

So it really does not have to be that family and like you said could have been a Thai too who brought the variant in. Personally i think it came from cross border travel (unmonitored). The state quarantine is pretty good so i doubt it escaped from there. But it is possible.

[KhaoYai]

20 hours ago, starky said:

Yes.  but the one universal constant is less than 2% fatality and this has to be put into perspective. Of something we have never experienced before. So in the first year we have to expect more death. So it is a cost analysis. Is it worth shutting the world down for a 2% fatality rate? Well yes according to some, but that some has never been exposed to poverty, warfare, malnutrition or any other hardship so of course they shirting their pants. The biggest conundrum they have ever faced is exchange rate to the baht. 

Right so lets fully open up, stop all the lockdowns and just ignore the virus - I'd go along with that providing that the 2% that die are people who think like you do. Will you volunteer?

[Chongalulu]

9 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

About the same as many other countries around the world.  But not as good as some.  Of course, we don't have the infections like many countries in the West do....

 

I spoke with a guy connected to a private hospital last night.  Said some time in June they'll start offering jabs, other than AZ and the Chinese ones.  Great news!!

At 0.1% of the population vaccinated Thailand is amongst the very bottom of nations. UK circa 50% and the poorly performing EU around 11%. 
They've basically become complacent because their infection rate and fatalities were so low (some due to fortunate inherent circumstances) but this time should have been spent ensuring vaccination,the only real long term solution. 

[Russell17au]

2 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Right so lets fully open up, stop all the lockdowns and just ignore the virus - I'd go along with that providing that the 2% that die are people who think like you do. Will you volunteer?

I wonder how starky would feel if just 1 of that 2% was 1 of his loved ones.

[robblok]

14 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Right so lets fully open up, stop all the lockdowns and just ignore the virus - I'd go along with that providing that the 2% that die are people who think like you do. Will you volunteer?

Its 2.5% in Brazil and raising. The lower then 2 procent only happens when hospitals can cope. So opening up like Starky wants will lead to Brazil situations. Its the best example of a country without restrictions. 3000+ per day die. I guess Starky is a close friend of the President of Brazil ????

 

But he does have a point what is an acceptable loss, for opening up. Personally now with the vaccinations in many countries (my own country is slow. The Uk is a great example they were first one of the worst performing countries and now because of their vaccination drive the best in Europe they are showing others how its done). 

 

I think vaccination is the only way to go. Then everything can open up again.

[robsamui]

March 2020 - the 'First Wave - "Everything is under control": Prayuth Chan-ocha.

January 2020 - the 'Second Wave"  - "Everything is under control": Prayuth Chan-ocha.

 

April 2021  - the 'Third Wave' - "We did everything to block it, and B.1.1.7 still gets through," Yong Poovorawan, government expert.

 

April 2021 - "We can handle things right now; we've inoculated 0.3121% of the population with their first dose. " : Prayuth Chan-ocha.

 

April 2021 - Songkran. "Travel all over Thailand, anywhere you want to visit your families - that's OK - but do not party." Anutin Charnvirusal.      

May 2021 - the 'Tsunami Wave'.

 

Edited April 8, 2021 by robsamui

[KhaoYai]

37 minutes ago, robblok said:

Its 2.5% in Brazil and raising. The lower then 2 procent only happens when hospitals can cope. So opening up like Starky wants will lead to Brazil situations. Its the best example of a country without restrictions. 3000+ per day die. I guess Starky is a close friend of the President of Brazil 

You make an excellent point - the death rate would indeed be a lot higher if hospitals are overwhelmed.

 

However I would question your agreement regarding an 'acceptable loss in opening up' - who decides that? Who plays god?

 

Yes, many countries have failed to respond properly to the virus - if they had done their economies might not have suffered so much and for so long.  This is what happens when politicians are allowed to continue running a country under Pandemic conditions - some make decisions based on (false) economy, some for political reasons.  Just taking 3 examples:

 

1. Johnson (UK) in the spring of 2020 said the virus would be over by summer.

2. Trump (USA) said the the death toll might reach 150,000 - max 200,000 - its now around 500,000

3. Bolsanaro (Brazil) - well, nothing else to say about him other than he's a total lunatic.

 

All 3 are right up there in terms of poor response to the Pandemic and all have ignored the advice of professionals.

 

Johnson refused to close the UK's borders - now he refuses to open them. He refused to impose a lockdown before Christmas which resulted in a massive spike of infections and deaths.  I just hope that all countries learn from this.

 

When a Pandemic is declared a special government, bound to take account of expert advice should be immediately installed. In terms of economic response - all that's needed is to make sure that nobody starves. The situation in the UK where some get 80% of their salaries whilst others get nothing is totally wrong.

Edited April 8, 2021 by KhaoYai

[Johnny Mac]

Looks like from tomorrow all bars and clubs in 41 provinces have to close for at least 14 days.

 

Let's see if they are clear on what a 'bar' is exactly? We know what a club is, but a 'bar' is vague.

 

This sh!t is going on forever now. Bad times.

[placnx]

21 hours ago, anchadian said:

Quentin Sommerville liked

 

Julia Macfarlane 

 

@juliamacfarlane 

@ABC

foreign affairs reporter

·

A new study in Chile where the vaccine rollout has mostly relied on China's Coronvac vaccine, shows that the first shot alone does not offer protection against COVID19. It might explain why Chile's infection rate is still so high despite being one of the most vaccinated countries

The Chinese vaccines offer less protection from infection, so with the UK variant these vaccines do not protect public health, only help avoid serious illness of the vaccinated individual. Consequently, they may even promote new variants by letting the virus run rampant. With such infectious variants, we need to use mRNA vaccines or anything else in the pipeline with similar efficacy. Even Astra-Zeneca is not ideal. Furthermore, a high percentage of population (~80%) would need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

[Muzzique]

21 hours ago, anchadian said:

A new study in Chile where the vaccine rollout has mostly relied on China's Coronvac vaccine, shows that the first shot alone does not offer protection against COVID19. 

 

3% effective after the first dose and then 27% after the second rising to 54% 2 weeks later. So for the month between the shots you're in the same boat as without it.

 

After that it's toss a coin.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2021 by Muzzique

[Russell17au]

2 hours ago, AMFWolfie said:

I'll say it again because the reporting is as clear as mud and misleading "had detected the variant in a family traveling from Britain, who were isolated" What nationality was that family??? because unless they were Thai, that don't apparently need to be tested, every member of that family would have had to have had a negative Covid test before leaving the UK and I cant believe for one minute not one of them came back positive and should never had boarded the flight where they are free to infect anyone on the same flight. Technically they should all have gone into quarantine where it would be picked up but does beg the question how it progressed outside that flight...

 

It does not matter what nationality the family are, because they only need to have the test within 72 hours of boarding the plane. So if they had the test 60 hours before boarding and it gave a negative reading what is to stop any of them being infected at 6 hours before boarding. The only way that this would work is if the person was quarantined immediately from the time of the test to the time of boarding the plane

[placnx]

7 hours ago, Boyblue said:

the Family travelling from the UK where isolated, but what about all the people they came into contact with on their trip to Thailand, maybe that is the anwer to how it got through.....

and as for complacency and the 2% mentioned, you only have to look at Brazil to see what complacency means. over 4000 deaths in one day...... why is Thailand waiting till June to start vacinations when the rest of the world has already started and the UK is nearly complete. you cant rely on tourist with vacination passports not to bring it in with them, they may not get it, but they can spread it........

While it would be sensible to check the health status of all the passengers on their inbound flight, the Burma origin mentioned by unblocktheplanet seems more likely:

 

7 hours ago, unblocktheplanet said:

"We did everything to block it, and it still gets through,"

My guess is through Burma (what variants are there) or a foreigner for whom 14 day quarantine was not long enough.

 

“B.1.1.7 is as much as 70% more transmissible than existing variants, and far deadlier” “he was puzzled at how community transmission had occurred given Thailand's strict border controls, quarantine and testing protocols”

Dr. Yong surely can't believe this!!!

 

“for every 1 person infected up to 30 more are also likely to be infected” "less than 2% fatality?"

All good...unless YOU happen to be one of the 30 or the 2%

 

“Not really if you make your livelihood in tourism.”

Time for Thailand to diversify, innit? All the eggs in one basket have gone rotten. Tourists are NOT coming back for a long time.

 

Back to our roots. Thai sticks. Organic agricultural exports.

 

[placnx]

5 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

There is no variant of Covid-19 with an R number of 30. During the spread of the B117 (Kent) variant in the UK I think the highest R value it had was around 1.7 - meaning each infected person would pass it on to an average of less than 2 other people.

 

That's still enough to cause an exponential spread, of course.

The R number expresses an average, but there are cases of a single individual infecting 100 people.

[placnx]

4 hours ago, Russell17au said:

Yes I have read what you wrote and you wrote "Comprehensive genetic analysis based on large databases now suggest the virus first came into existence in the October time frame in China." If it came into existence as you wrote then how is it recorded in France in an Argentinian man in August 2019

Evidently you did not understand what rabas wrote.

[placnx]

4 hours ago, Russell17au said:

Try reading the actual NIH Projects Report that was started in 2014 instead of trying the wikipedia which tells you nothing. Here is the link to the NIH Projects site which is not a small thing as you falsely claim with your false information.

https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8674931

Admittedly I was a mistake of NIH to fund Daszak who then passed on money and technology to the Wuhan lab.

[Russell17au]

1 minute ago, placnx said:

Admittedly I was a mistake of NIH to fund Daszak who then passed on money and technology to the Wuhan lab.

And it was when Trump became president that he slashed the funding to all the health programs that the Obama Administration set up including this Ecohealth project, so with the slashing of the funds, did it contribute to a breakdown of the security at the lab and allowed this virus to escape? Nobody knows all the answers but I believe that China is not the only culprit in this.