SURVEY: Will Thailand get the virus under control?

[Jingthing]

It's not only the Brazilian variant, not that there is any hope that can be contained to Brazil.

 

More young people are getting hospitalized as a 'stickier,' more infectious coronavirus strain becomes dominant - CNN

 

Quote

More young people are getting hospitalized as a 'stickier,' more infectious coronavirus strain becomes dominant

 

[ukrules]

Of course they will get it under control, it's just a matter of how long it will take....and that's anyones guess

[CharlieH]

Unsubstantiated post (with statistics) removed.

 

Edit:  Post with false or misleading information has been removed along with replies -- Scott

Edited April 13, 2021 by Scott

[Peter Denis]

9 hours ago, placeholder said:

Given that the number of studies that would have to be done would mean an exponential increase, it's unlikely that we'll ever know anything approaching a complete answer to that question.

Are health-authorities using different vaccine-brands for first and second shot?  Nothing surprises me anymore, but that would be pushing the experimental nature of these emergency-approved vaccines to the limit.  

[Taboo2]

On 4/10/2021 at 5:29 PM, internationalism said:

the third wave has already started several days ago, with many clusters and will last about 3 months (first one was march-may, second december-february).

The previous ones were less contagious, so lasted shorter. Also possibly thai were immune to them from some similar virus in the past, possible genetically.

That one is from a mutation from the UK. So there is smaller chance thai are immune to it.

 

I don't worry about outbreak, they will be happening periodically at least 2x per year. What matters is how high toll they would put in the health system, how many deaths they will cause. So far thailand was doing well with almost empty hospitals.

But now in bangkok all beds are occupied. Private hospitals run out of tests.

So patients are coming with suspicious symptoms and can't be classified easily with tests. Even if they are tested, results would be coming with delay, because laboratories are in holiday mode.

Do expect in medical histories "lung infection", pneumonia, flu, even dengue or some other oriental illnesses, or food poisoning but not necessary "covid", if they don't have all covid symptoms. 

There are tens of covid symptoms, not necessary obvious to the general public. In some countries every single patients coming to hospital for any serious treatment were tested for covid, just to exclude contamination of hospital.

Patients will be avoiding hospitals or pushed away during songkran, because they are now understaffed, with half capacity. So patients won't be kept overnight, but told to go home and come back the next day if symptoms persist.

 

it's obvious, that the government is downplaying this outbreak, partly because ministers, parliamentarians, high ranking police and army officers, as well as celebrities are heavily involved in spreading virus through the Cristal Club 

What is so special about the Krystal Club?  I am now eager to check it out.

[Moonlover]

6 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I don't think your narrative is actually true. Although it is true that that flu hit young adults the hardest and there were multiple waves, my understanding is that it was not because of a mutation. It was that way from the first wave. A current theory as to why is that older people had other flu strains in their youth that provided some immunity to that particularly deadly flu and younger people missed that. 

 

As far as Covid-19  and the Brazilian variation, yes it is hitting younger people in much higher percentages than before. Yes, the world should be very alarmed by this as the vaccination program in most of the world isn't happening quickly enough.

 

That said, we should have some perspective. That we have multiple vaccines that are effective so incredibly quickly is a major and historic accomplishment of science. But the vaccines are worthless unless they get into enough arms quickly enough. 

Thanks' for that. You prompted me to reread on the topic and it turns out that, although there had been a mutation, it was in fact less virulent than the 1st wave. I'd got it the wrong way round.

 

And that makes sense of course. Virus's that kill off their hosts too quickly are less efficient at spreading themselves. They prefer long train rides to short bus rides. ???? At least that's what I gleaned from Richard Dawkins in 'The Selfish Gene'.

 

So perhaps we shouldn't be too alarmed by the current situation in the likes of Brazil. There are many factors that come into play. (He said from his bunker in rural Issan)

 

Stay safe

[frantick]

On 4/12/2021 at 8:06 AM, Antonymous said:

 

Interesting comment.

 

Deaths per million population (Worldometer):

 

Brazil 1,644

USA 1,731

UK 1,864

Don't know about Brazil, but the USA normally has about 8,000/million total deaths per year, so given there have been practically 0 flu deaths, that 1,731 doesn't appear to me that the sky is falling.

[ICELANDMAN]

     

[KhaoYai]

On 4/12/2021 at 5:08 AM, Moonlover said:

The reason why the death toll from Spanish Flu was so high was because the second wave was a mutation that killed off young, healthy victims as well as the old.

You don't think it had anything to do with the fact that it was over 100 years ago then?

[GeorgeCross]

6 hours ago, Taboo2 said:

What is so special about the Krystal Club?  I am now eager to check it out.

 

google it.. images tab.. dont let your partner see!

[Moonlover]

37 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

On 4/12/2021 at 11:08 AM, Moonlover said:

The reason why the death toll from Spanish Flu was so high was because the second wave was a mutation that killed off young, healthy victims as well as the old.

 

37 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

You don't think it had anything to do with the fact that it was over 100 years ago then?

There were lots of factors. A world war which caused homelessness and malnutrition. People constantly on the move. There were no vaccines or antibiotics to fight secondary infections.

 

But it doesn't hide the fact that flu does not normally kill off the young. Spanish Flu did, with a vengeance!

 

Edited April 13, 2021 by Moonlover

[KhaoYai]

4 minutes ago, Moonlover said:

But it doesn't hide the fact that flu does not normally kill off the young. Spanish Flu did, with a vengeance!

I wasn't arguing that point. What I was getting at was that I believe the reason so many died was due to the fact that treatment and hospitals were nowhere near as advanced as they are now.  If Covid 19 had occurred in 1918, I think we would be looking at vastly more than the 3 million deaths we've seen so far this time.

[Moonlover]

1 hour ago, KhaoYai said:

1 hour ago, Moonlover said:

But it doesn't hide the fact that flu does not normally kill off the young. Spanish Flu did, with a vengeance!

 

1 hour ago, KhaoYai said:

I wasn't arguing that point. What I was getting at was that I believe the reason so many died was due to the fact that treatment and hospitals were nowhere near as advanced as they are now.  If Covid 19 had occurred in 1918, I think we would be looking at vastly more than the 3 million deaths we've seen so far this time.

Well that is true of course and I did allude to that when I mentioned medication, but there has to be more to it. They didn't have those medical facilities in the years prior to the epidemic, no for many years afterward yet it only happened for those 2 years and I'm sure flu didn't just 'go away'.

 

There was something very different about that virus and an article I was reading postulated that it could have been one that jumped species, possibly from birds and humans had a much lower resistance to it. Now doesn't that sound a familiar tale?

[Gabor56]

Short answer: NO  long answer: YES on paper

 

 

[elliss]

19 hours ago, Wiggy said:

Could be from anywhere, as we wouldn’t necessarily be privy to that information.  

 

     Nuff said ...

      Thank you ..

[elliss]

16 hours ago, ukrules said:

Of course they will get it under control, it's just a matter of how long it will take....and that's anyones guess

 

      Maybe , not in our lifetime ..

[KhaoYai]

3 hours ago, Moonlover said:

There was something very different about that virus and an article I was reading postulated that it could have been one that jumped species, possibly from birds and humans had a much lower resistance to it. Now doesn't that sound a familiar tale?

I don't know if that's much different to most viruses.

[The Hammer2021]

On 4/11/2021 at 10:07 PM, The Hammer2021 said:

The Thai people will get it under control despite the government!

Who finds this statement confusing?

[dinsdale]

Try this one. Will Thailand ever get corruption under control? Biogger chance with covid I think. 

[The Hammer2021]

2 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

I don't know if that's much different to most viruses.

Indeed such as swine flu or avian flu maybe even AIDS. The 'Rona' is different because of the dangers,  real or imagined that are associated  with it and the  international campaign against it underpinned by its news coverage amplified by controversy based social media hysteria linking it to puerile conspiracy theories....Whilst at the same time ignoring the political realities behind it or rather selective focusing on 'The Science' for political reasons. Possibly the most shameful period in modern human  history.

[The Hammer2021]

29 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Try this one. Will Thailand ever get corruption under control? Biogger chance with covid I think. 

Will the UK ever get corruption under control or just continue to redefine it and mask it? Look at France!...and countess other countries. Possibly the most corrupting country in the world is the USA..

and in China the very foundation of governance and control is corruption..

[scorecard]

On 4/11/2021 at 6:12 PM, Nanaplaza666 said:

100% right , they should have ordered millions of vaccines in the time they HAD everything under controle so they could have vaccinated millions of people even before the third wave could have happened .

 

And earlier today there's an announcement that a sizeable supply of the vaccines is at least 2 to 3 months away.

 

And let's hope the lack of test kits is well on the way to being relieved.

 

Seems to me that by year end (31 Dec year) the LOS will still be battling with new infections and a very small % of the population fully vaccinated.

 

Say good bye to any initiates to get any decent numbers of tourists to come. Maybe start of Q2 next year.  

 

I hope there's swift and serious punishment for the gov't ministers and officials all caught at 'entertainment' venues in Thonglor. Ain't holding my breath.

 

Without it what hope is there to expect the plebs to stay at home and to practice distancing etc?

Edited April 13, 2021 by scorecard

[Moonlover]

10 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

13 hours ago, Moonlover said:

There was something very different about that virus and an article I was reading postulated that it could have been one that jumped species, possibly from birds and humans had a much lower resistance to it. Now doesn't that sound a familiar tale?

 

10 hours ago, KhaoYai said:

I don't know if that's much different to most viruses.

Could well be true, but our resistance to these new virus's gradually grows until there become just another version of the same old, same old. It's reckoned that versions of Spanish Flu is still around but it's now part of the viral background that we're all used to.

 

Stay safe.

[Kurtf]

On 4/12/2021 at 10:12 AM, bkksteve123 said:

 

50% less likely to catch the virus is still better than nothing. But vaccines also significantly reduce the risk of developing serious illness from COVID-19. This is what many people seem to be missing when talking about vaccine efficacy.

 

Vaccines have two jobs: 1) prevent vaccinated person from catching the virus, and 2) prevent serious illness in case of catching the virus.

 

By how much? Obviously it's still early to say and we need more data, but here's something from BBC "The PHS study found that, by the fourth week after the first dose of either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines, the risk of being admitted to hospital had been reduced by 81%." - so let's say 50% reduced risk of catching it and 80% reduced risk of serious illness.

 

Let's say 5% get a serious illness, then hypothetically it would look like this:

 

Group of 1000 people (not vaccinated)
Catch the virus: 1000 people
Serious illness (5%) = 50 people

 

Group of 1000 people (vaccinated)
Catch the virus: 500 people (50% less)
Serious illness (1%): 5 people (80% less i.e. 1% instead of 5%)

 

As you can see, even with 50% efficacy it does actually help a lot to get vaccinated, especially if everyone gets vaccinated.

 

You forgot to count the number of people that had reactions to the vaccine. Plus you have no idea how the MRNA type vaccine will affect people 1, 2, 5 years down the road. Will their immune system be compromised as has been said by some medical experts?

[Rookiescot]

2 minutes ago, Kurtf said:

You forgot to count the number of people that had reactions to the vaccine. Plus you have no idea how the MRNA type vaccine will affect people 1, 2, 5 years down the road. Will their immune system be compromised as has been said by some medical experts?

Which medical experts?

Got a link please?

[Kurtf]

Just now, Rookiescot said:

Which medical experts?

Got a link please?

I don't have a link. I just watched their presentation on a social media website.

[phills2k1]

8 minutes ago, Kurtf said:

I don't have a link. I just watched their presentation on a social media website.

lol

 

So you watched an anti-vax vid on facebook. Do the flat earth videos have the same impact on you as well?

[The Hammer2021]

1 hour ago, Kurtf said:

I don't have a link. I just watched their presentation on a social media website.

That bloke in car talking  about his 3rd eye?

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, Kurtf said:

I don't have a link. I just watched their presentation on a social media website.

Please, don't use social media for information.  Most of it is fake.  Go to the original source.  If it's good, there will be a link to a credible website.

[metisdead]

A post using a derogatory ethnic slur comment toward Japanese people has been removed.