Worst case scenario: Thailand faces 28,000 new COVID-19 cases PER DAY

[ThailandGuy]

No way that is gonna happen in 1 week. Simply not possible even with a reproduction number of 1.7 which is absurd as the UK variant of the virus has a reproduction of 1.3.  They are just in total panic mode.  Why is use of alcohol not  prohibited? Why is there no curfew?  You saw this coming 2 weeks ago and still not stop Songkran? How bizar. And they want to open up toursim in June/July? Good luck with that !

 

[mike1967]

Just like the 40,000, worst case scenario, deaths in the UK but the government hoped to keep it under 20,000? I really don't think they've a clue about this variant. Pushing numbers around on a bit paper just isn't how it works.

[RichardColeman]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand faces the grim prospect of 28,000 new COVID-19 cases per day, if adequate preventative measures are not put in place, public health officials said on Sunday.

I don't really find that plausible - or at least finding them.

 

When they are only doing on average about 21 or 22,000 tests per day over the past year, finding 28,000 a day seems hard to me.

 

To find 28,000 would probably mean testing hundreds of thousands a day. And that simply is not going to happen in Thailand

[mike1967]

29 minutes ago, ThailandGuy said:

No way that is gonna happen in 1 week. Simply not possible even with a reproduction number of 1.7 which is absurd as the UK variant of the virus has a reproduction of 1.3.  They are just in total panic mode.  Why is use of alcohol not  prohibited? Why is there no curfew?  You saw this coming 2 weeks ago and still not stop Songkran? How bizar. And they want to open up toursim in June/July? Good luck with that !

 

Who's going to holiday in Thailand? The Thai authorities may think they are calling the shots but it's way out of their hands, and has been for quite a while. As much as they can 'manipulate' the figures, governments from vaccinated countries will simply make it near on impossible to travel there whilst not actually banning international travel. PCR tests before you leave, hotel quarantine on your return plus PCR tests. Then, of course, there's quarantine on arrival in Thailand. That's minimally £2500 EXTRA before you sip your first beer, that's per person. Yes, you'll have some long term expatriates who will return but almost zero holiday makers. This my friends isn't pure speculation, it's common sense.

Edited April 12, 2021 by mike1967
Updated

[xtrnuno41]

Well he had to say it before this week, then he can say , told you so.

As this week is Songkra, lets have a C19 party!

[MasterBaker]

looks to me as a way to scare Thai people do not travel for Songkran, instead of taking unpopular measures, such as  a lockdown of the entire country, which will have to be done after Songkran anyways

Edited April 12, 2021 by MasterBaker

[Krabi King]

1 hour ago, RickBradford said:

You will be hearing about "this Covid thingy" for years more in any case, partly because it is impossible to eradicate, just as it has proved impossible to eradicate colds and influenza viruses.

 

It will only fade out when political leaders realize that Covid has become part of the scenery and stop trying to micromanage it. Given how politicians love the power that an event like this grants them, you are looking at later (years) rather than sooner 

I'm with you... many are not obviously... like someone here saying to put people that don't comply in prison. I hope the authoritarians fail in the end...

 

[Aarin]

In Cha Am now. crowded in restaurants and no social distance at all. lol. beaches and 7/12 packed and not a Farang in site. So after Songkran DO NOT BLAME FARANG... 

[vandeventer]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I can not say anything negative about your comment because it is 100% accurate.

I am confused again is the the third wave or is this the first wave with very little testing done? And we can't even blame it on the tourist.

[mark131v]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

According to the mathematical model used by the DDC to predict the numbers of future cases, the best case scenario would see around 1,300 new cases per day, while the middle prediction would see an average of just over 9,000 new cases per day, Sanook reported. 

 

Absolutely no need to re-invent the wheel all they need to look at is how a similar sized population fared when the virus got out of control...

 

It's all academic anyway as any data they release will be unreliable at best and lies and deflection at worst, that's pretty much the only thing you can rely on with this bunch of muppets...

[IamNoone88]

Such a great initial job in controlling the virus only to be thrown away by a terrible vaccination rollout program that are using lesser vaccines and the pending opening of borders in July. Thailand is not ready yet nor will it be by July.

[AMFWolfie]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

As he has said the above should occur or should have already been done.  However, that's not what occurred.  A day late and a dollar short. Can you imagine a Thai Chana qr code at the entrance to a small village. 

If Bangkok Pattaya Hospital is an example of how not to spread the virus then then Thailand is in deep trouble if what I saw this morning is anything to go by. Queue to get in for a test in the main entrance with people running to the front of the queue because they simply want to get in for other reasons than a test. Stand for several minutes while they take your details from passport or ID card. Hand back and proceed inside where told to put completed form and ID on the counter then told to sit down and wait in the inside waiting area. Some sat with masks pulled down and many more passing through with masks on but very busy. After 10 minutes got fed up waiting and went back to the counter, took passport and left without being tested. Wife slightly more patient got her ticket and told to wait in outside waiting area with about 30 other people all waiting for Covid Test. Seats about 1 meter apart to conserve space and typically off most Thais, all talking together to pass the time. After about 30 minutes called inside upstairs to another waiting area/room, again with seats 1 mtr apart and told to wait again. At that point after being given the choice to sit next to a man shivering with a blanket wrapped around him, she also decided enough was enough and left. 

 

Now booked 8am appointment at a different hospital for 20th April ready to fly back to UK on 22nd where both of us because of age have been offered the vaccine. Will come back to Thailand hopefully once someone here sorts out all the nonsense probably in October

 

 

 

[gungadin1]

UK was 100,000 a day so that's nothing

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, AMFWolfie said:

If Bangkok Pattaya Hospital is an example of how not to spread the virus then then Thailand is in deep trouble if what I saw this morning is anything to go by. Queue to get in for a test in the main entrance with people running to the front of the queue because they simply want to get in for other reasons than a test. Stand for several minutes while they take your details from passport or ID card. Hand back and proceed inside where told to put completed form and ID on the counter then told to sit down and wait in the inside waiting area. Some sat with masks pulled down and many more passing through with masks on but very busy. After 10 minutes got fed up waiting and went back to the counter, took passport and left without being tested. Wife slightly more patient got her ticket and told to wait in outside waiting area with about 30 other people all waiting for Covid Test. Seats about 1 meter apart to conserve space and typically off most Thais, all talking together to pass the time. After about 30 minutes called inside upstairs to another waiting area/room, again with seats 1 mtr apart and told to wait again. At that point after being given the choice to sit next to a man shivering with a blanket wrapped around him, she also decided enough was enough and left. 

 

Now booked 8am appointment at a different hospital for 20th April ready to fly back to UK on 22nd where both of us because of age have been offered the vaccine. Will come back to Thailand hopefully once someone here sorts out all the nonsense probably in October

 

 

 

Panic obviously is filling the hospitals much like the west and Europe last year when the infections started. Good luck back in the UK.

[BernieOnTour]

Seems, Thailand was also in urgent need of a Thai borne Neil Ferguson ????

Edited April 12, 2021 by BernieOnTour

[dave moir]

2 hours ago, RickBradford said:

You will be hearing about "this Covid thingy" for years more in any case, partly because it is impossible to eradicate, just as it has proved impossible to eradicate colds and influenza viruses.

 

It will only fade out when political leaders realize that Covid has become part of the scenery and stop trying to micromanage it. Given how politicians love the power that an event like this grants them, you are looking at later (years) rather than sooner (months).

You may find influenza has basically been eradicated!???? It's now called Covid ????

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

But sadly that now has gone out the window as my research suggests that the B117 variant is much deadlier and more contagious than what we have seen in the past

 

It kills slightly more people and spreads a little bit more - less than double the previous one (1.7x) - so it's not really that bad.

 

If it was 100x more contagious then we would really have something to complain about.

 

 

Edited April 12, 2021 by ukrules

[wensiensheng]

2 hours ago, Smilermike said:

They have to start acting positively to rid this from Thailand. And if that means stopping people from coming into the country or moving around Thailand so be it! Act decisively and stop faffing about. Enforce  the rules anyone that breaks them put them in prison. You cant rid this country  of Covid if you keep thinking about allowing people in. How do you think this uk strain got here? If they had done this in the beginning, all the businesses would now be  at least trying to make some money rather than every few months open  close open close.  Through not being strong in the 1st instance you are crippling the country to a stage where it will takes decades to get back on its feet if at all.

Sorry, I have to say you are talking nonsense.

First and foremost, no country is going to get rid of Covid. It is here to stay. The strong action that you seem to espouse for borders and internal travel, plus any other type of lockdown is simply to buy time for a vaccine to be distributed so that humans can co exist with Covid without getting sick with moderate symptoms or worse.

 

vaccine distribution is the thing that will remove the need for lockdowns, simple as that.

[rabas]

1 hour ago, ThailandGuy said:

No way that is gonna happen in 1 week. Simply not possible even with a reproduction number of 1.7 which is absurd as the UK variant of the virus has a reproduction of 1.3.  They are just in total panic mode.  Why is use of alcohol not  prohibited? Why is there no curfew?  You saw this coming 2 weeks ago and still not stop Songkran? How bizar. And they want to open up toursim in June/July? Good luck with that !

 

Reproduction number doesn't depend only on the virus. It also depends on the number of contacts and how effect one contact is.  Everybody sitting in a room alone, R0 is very small. R0 is very large In a disco with loud people drinking.  Thailand will likely have a bigger R0 for the UK variant.

 

 

[Scouse123]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

As he has said the above should occur or should have already been done.  However, that's not what occurred.  A day late and a dollar short. Can you imagine a Thai Chana qr code at the entrance to a small village. 

 

Not arguing your point.

 

However you raised something interesting,

 

I live in my own compound walled in but we do have a small entrance road with a large temple at the junction of that road. Last night, I decided to venture out to the local 7-11 to buy a few bits. When I got to the village entrance, there was a number of desks with a load of young guys and girls in uniform.

 

They were local, even maybe a volunteer force, but they were asking and checking people entering and taking temperatures.

 

I am not going into the fact it can take so many days, and asymptomatic cases, and blah blah, but they were there for a reason.

 

My other half said they were gathering information to report on any returnees from the area coming back home for Songkran and any abnormalities.

[barney42bb]

More Covid Cases than what are dropping on an Airport Carousel pickup.... And that is how it will stay until some common sense kicks in.

[Scouse123]

15 minutes ago, BernieOnTour said:

Seems, Thailand was also in urgent need of a Thai borne Neil Ferguson ????

 

 

Yeah,

 

but practice makes perfect.

 

He's getting closer with his estimates looking at 2020.????????

[Petey11]

2 hours ago, Smilermike said:

They have to start acting positively to rid this from Thailand. And if that means stopping people from coming into the country or moving around Thailand so be it! Act decisively and stop faffing about. Enforce  the rules anyone that breaks them put them in prison. You cant rid this country  of Covid if you keep thinking about allowing people in. How do you think this uk strain got here? If they had done this in the beginning, all the businesses would now be  at least trying to make some money rather than every few months open  close open close.  Through not being strong in the 1st instance you are crippling the country to a stage where it will takes decades to get back on its feet if at all.

Covid is not going away anywhere in the world soon, unless a miracle happens, it's endemic apart maybe a few small isolated islands with small populations who have been able to stop infected coming in. 

[Tarteso]

What !!!!

[taxin]

Please someone tell me how this is “Breaking News” ? It’s a prediction, a guess, a scenario.

[Nojohndoe]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

As he has said the above should occur or should have already been done.  However, that's not what occurred.  A day late and a dollar short. Can you imagine a Thai Chana qr code at the entrance to a small village. 

In the original nationwide response small villages indeed introduced individual checks on entry and exit and refused entry to non villagers who could not specify a specific purpose to enter.

It was probably more effective than electronic methods that many pretend to submit to.

[Jimbo2014]

If we can even get the vaccine rate over 1% it might help ????.  Not Sinvac preferably!

[stephenterry]

As many posters have said, Covid 19 is here to stay worldwide, whatever short term measures are taken. Therefore, the absolute priority has to be herd vaccination ASAP.

 

I'm going out on a limb here, but the riskiest people who infect others are those most likely within the 10 -30 age group. If vaccine availabilities are at a premium, delay innoculating the elders, and focus on protecting the elderly against the young, first and foremost.

 

AND FOR ONCE, START ENFORCING IT.

 

  

[chilly07]

Until Thais respect and obey the rules and laws especially government officials and the well off and stop treating the rest of the population as of no consequence Thailand will continue to lurch from crisis to crisis and continue to behave as if they are in the worst soap opera imaginable. 

[robbioff]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

The day the government will finally pull their finger out and take this Covid business seriously and take decisive and painful measures to eradicate this Covid thingy once and for all we all be hearing of it for many months  if not years to come...  

Do you seriously think it can be eradicated? I know weed has been semi-legalised, but....(It’s already been a year, btw)