Vaccinating Pattaya

[WaveHunter]

4 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Total numbers.

1458 yesterday,

1443: 20th,

1390: 19th,

1767 18th,

1547: 17th,

1585: 16th, 

1543, 15th 

1335 14th

 

As I said these are not exponential (per the post I responded to) they are 'up to date' (yesterday), and it would appear you are just looking to argue.

 

 

Not exponential, you say???  Well maybe you have a different definition of what "exponential" really means.

 

You are only looking at a 13 day time frame.  Perhaps you should look at the bigger picture.  On a month to month basis, these graphs would seem to be the beginning of exponential growth IMHO.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2021 by WaveHunter

[Jeffr2]

1470 today...that they know of....

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1385090464836030467?s=20

[WaveHunter]

49 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

1470 today...that they know of....

 

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1385090464836030467?s=20

Yes, and contrast that to last year on this date where the number of daily new cases was only 15. 

 

Just some unpleasant "food for thought" for those on this forum still under the impression that the exponential rise in new cases this year is only imaginary or being misinterpreted.  The graph I posted in a previous post kind of says it all, unfortunately.  Pretty sad. ????

 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2021 by WaveHunter

[nrasmussen]

16 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Pretty vague whether they mean to include foreigners outside the Thai social security system. Like retired expats.

 

Well, I don't consider "everyone in the country" vague; quite the opposite, actually.

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Not exponential, you say???  Well maybe you have a different definition of what "exponential" really means.

Yes it means something like  f(x) = a^x, a>0, a≠1

But put simply, the number increases with time....  recently the numbers, as I supplied, are looking level... add today's Apr 22nd  number, 1,470 new patients.

I did say specifically 'recent results'. I am trying to be optimistic... as opposed to fear mongering. I accept the 14 day figure as having value, but to deliberately leave off recent numbers, a week' worth, is manipulative, and you should apply them. 

[Jingthing]

Published numbers are obviously tip of the iceberg.

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

Yes it means something like  f(x) = a^x, a>0, a≠1

But put simply, the number increases with time....  recently the numbers, as I supplied, are looking level... add today's Apr 22nd  number, 1,470 new patients.

I did say specifically 'recent results'. I am trying to be optimistic... as opposed to fear mongering. I accept the 14 day figure as having value, but to deliberately leave off recent numbers, a week' worth, is manipulative, and you should apply them. 

Well I like to be optimistic as well but there is nothing optimistic about the graph I posted and will post again here. 

 

 

Whether or not this graph is a statistically accurate representation of  exponential growth according to some statistical formula isn't the point.  One look at this year-to-date chart is pretty compelling proof that the month-to-month rise in new cases is seriously alarming!

 

It indicates that the number of new daily cases has been drastically rising month-to-month this year, and certainly at a more alarming rate than your 13 day snippet of new cases implies.  When you look at the year-to-date, it's a completely different picture than a 13 day time-frame, ya know?

 

Until I saw this graph I felt reasonably secure that things here in Thailand were relatively safe.  After seeing this graph I no longer feel that way. 

 

This is not "fear mongering".  It's called being a realist.  That's all I'm trying to say.

 

Edited April 22, 2021 by WaveHunter

[Leaver]

2 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

Well I like to be optimistic as well but there is nothing optimistic about the graph I posted and will post again here. 

 

 

Whether or not this graph is a statistically accurate representation of  exponential growth according to some statistical formula isn't the point.  One look at this year-to-date chart is pretty compelling proof that the month-to-month rise in new cases is seriously alarming!

 

It indicates that the number of new daily cases has been drastically rising month-to-month this year, and certainly at a more alarming rate than your 13 day snippet of new cases implies.  When you look at the year-to-date, it's a completely different picture than a 13 day time-frame, ya know?

 

Until I saw this graph I felt reasonably secure that things here in Thailand were relatively safe.  After seeing this graph I no longer feel that way. 

 

This is not "fear mongering".  It's called being a realist.  That's all I'm trying to say.

 

 

Irrespective of whether the graph is accurate or inaccurate, as cases rise rapidly here, which they are, Thailand being Thailand, it will get to the point where the statistics will flatten out, simply because Thailand either can not keep up test kit numbers, can not do the pathology tests fast enough to keep up, or runs out of staff to do the tests and / or the pathology, or runs out of hospital beds, in any structure used for the sick.  

 

In my opinion, it's at that point, we will never truly know the infection rates here, and covid will basically be out of control.  

 

So, I would suggest look for the "flat line" in the graph, because that's most probably when Thailand's resources have hit maximum capacity to cope, and it becomes survival of the fittest, or those who take self isolation seriously.  

[jacko45k]

12 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

One look at this year-to-date

But it isn't a year to date chart is it......today's date is 23rd April. That chart only goes as far as the 15th April. It also starts from 1st April 2021....so it is simply this month, first half of it.

You really are getting this wrong! There are 12 months in a year!

Your 'snippet', is a 15 day one..

 

Leaver's point is more valid, and I present the recent numbers to say 'it is flattening out.'

Edited April 22, 2021 by jacko45k

[WaveHunter]

6 hours ago, jacko45k said:

But it isn't a year to date chart is it......today's date is 23rd April. That chart only goes as far as the 15th April. It also starts from 1st April 2021....so it is simply this month, first half of it.

You really are getting this wrong! There are 12 months in a year!

Your 'snippet', is a 15 day one..

 

Leaver's point is more valid, and I present the recent numbers to say 'it is flattening out.'

 

OK fine, I included the wrong graph.  That does not change the fact that the April graph clearly shows the TRENDLINE is upward, not flattening out.

 

Again, here is the April graph that tracks to 15 April:

 

Here is a graph that tracks to 19 April 2021:

 

Here is the one I meant to include that shows the complete history of new cases in Thailand from 2020-2021. 

 

As for the "snippet", we both got that one wrong LOL; he only included 8 days, not 13 as I said or 15 as you said.  Regardless, you can't really predict a trendline based on only 8 days of data, but you can see it in a month long period, and certainly you can see it in the 2020-2021 graph, which are included here.

 

And to add, every single data set you look at such as total cases, active cases, total deaths, newly infected vs newly recovered (all included below) ALL show a worsening trendline!

 

My point is simply that you need to look at a month of data at the very least to see a valid trendline relating to COVID-19 since there is a lag time between actual infection and noticeable symptoms; anything less gives a false impression and to claim there is a flattening of the curve based on that is nothing more than wishful thinking.

 

I am by no means a fear-mongering, but you really have to keep in mind that these new variants of the virus are significantly more transmissible AND virulent.  To claim that the curve is flattening out when it really is not is irresponsible and dangerous. 

 

Right now, more than ever, people should be on guard and taking every precaution possible until vaccines become available.  That's not what I'm seeing though.  I see people walking around in public without masks, not practicing any form of social distancing, and acting as though the worst is behind us. 

 

Painting a FALSE picture that the curve is flattening out when it certainly is not is just plain WRONG to do!  The data clearly shows that the worst is NOT behind us, and people should start respecting the transmissibility and virulence of these new variants, or the will be hell to pay by all.

 

Here are the datasets for total cases, active cases, total deaths, newly infected vs newly recovered:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by WaveHunter

[jacko45k]

16 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

OK fine, I included the wrong graph.

Didn't stop you arguing the toss for 3 or 4 posts and demonstrates how much attention you paid to the graphs you posted.  You have still missed off 7-8 of the latest days in April...

My graph, a 3 day average, shows a turning point.... no longer exponential.

 I think end of discussion.

Edited April 23, 2021 by jacko45k

[KC 71]

On 4/21/2021 at 8:47 AM, redwood1 said:

So are they going to be giving away free krispy Kreme doughnuts with a vax like in America?........

 

 

even giving free weed with it now ????

[WaveHunter]

22 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Didn't stop you arguing the toss for 3 or 4 posts and demonstrates how much attention you paid to the graphs you posted.  You have still missed off 7-8 of the latest days in April...

 I think end of discussion.

Obviously you love playing devil's advocate.  What you mean by "arguing the toss for 3 or 4 posts" completely eludes me. 

 

I have included graphs that go up to 19 April BTW which are the latest I could find so your insinuation I am not presently current data is ridiculous, and if you think only a few days worth of data is going to change the trendline, think again.  

 

Go ahead and interpolate the last few days of data into a new graph if you want to waste your time, and see if it changes the trendline at all.  It will not.

 

Nothing you have said diminishes tha validity of the data I have presented.  All it proves is that you love to nitpick as a way to deflect from the truthful comments I am trying to make.

Edited April 23, 2021 by WaveHunter

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, WaveHunter said:

I have not included the last 7-8 days because I have no reliable data on them.

Seek and ye shall find.....although we are all suspicious of the data I expect.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

Actually todays numbers support your case better.

2,070 new cases and 4 new deaths

 

[WaveHunter]

10 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Seek and ye shall find.....although we are all suspicious of the data I expect.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

Actually todays numbers support your case better.

2,070 new cases and 4 new deaths

 

Do you even understand what statistical trend lines are???  These graphs all show VALID trend lines. 

 

You can nitpick and criticize all you like.  As I said in my last reply, go ahead and interpolate the last few days of data into a new graph if you want to waste your time.  What you'll see is that it does NOT change the trendline at all.  In other words, it does NOT flatten out the curve.  It will take a lot more days of downward numbers to do that. 

 

Try being intelligent about all of this instead of just playing Devil's Advocate.  If you really wish to debate this topic INTELLIGENTLY then fine, but really I have no more time for childish pissing matches.

Edited April 23, 2021 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

20 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Seek and ye shall find.....although we are all suspicious of the data I expect.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

Actually todays numbers support your case better.

2,070 new cases and 4 new deaths

 

To be clear, today's new numbers do NOT change the trend line up or down, even though today they show an increase. 

 

The only way today's number "support my case" is to show that day to day variations are meaningless. 

 

One day, two days or even a week of numbers don't accurately reflect a trend such as "flattening of the curve".  Just like stock prices in the stock market, they will naturally tick up and down on a daily basis.  All that really matters is the trend line of movement they make over time.

 

I keep trying to make that point.   Why can't we agree on that basic fact?  It's so important to understand because it's the only way to see if the curves is actually flattening or not.

 

Right now, for people to be under the illusion that it is flattening out when it actually is not is dangerous because they ease up and let their guard down...which is exactly what's happening and a big part of why things are getting worse, not better.

Edited April 23, 2021 by WaveHunter

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, WaveHunter said:

To be clear, the new numbers do NOT change the trend line,

Actually there isn't a trend line on your graph.....

[WaveHunter]

3 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Actually there isn't a trend line on your graph.....

OK, I think we're done here.  Have a nice day ????

 

[WaveHunter]

2070 new COVID cases reported today by CCSA (the highest number of new daily cases ever).

 

Anyone who is trying to argue that the Covid curve is flattening out needs to do a serious reality check. 

 

In Pattaya (Jomtien) I see far too many people walking around in public without masks, not practicing any serious social distancing, and just acting like everything is fine.  That is a pretty ignorant and selfish behavior.

 

If they were just putting themselves at risk that would be one thing, but they are putting us ALL at risk...and as far as I'm concerned that goes for all the misinformed posters here on the forums who try to say that the curve is flattening. 

 

Incredibly STUPID and dangerous to post frivolous and unfounded opinions as though they were facts here on this forum considering that a lot of expats seem to get the whole view of current events off this forum (sadly enough)!  

 

I am by no means a fear-monger but these new variants of the Covid virus are far more transmissible and virulent than the previous ones, and when you look at the ACTUAL numbers (new cases, active cases, number of deaths), they are all showing a marked rise during this year.  Again, I am NOT a fear-monger, just a realist.  We all need to start acting a lot more responsible.

Edited April 23, 2021 by WaveHunter

[jacko45k]

43 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

I am by no means a fear-monger

I would say you are. The number of new cases (2070 today) here is the high for Thailand, but globally, it is around the 44th highest country. 

I still  hope  and expect the measures taken will pull these numbers down soon, after the folly of Songkran. 

I agree masks should be taken more seriously, I posted how I saw people walking around in BigCX yesterday without masks.  

I am rather more shocked to read elsewhere of how late in the year the vaccinations might well be. 

 

[WaveHunter]

58 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

I would say you are. The number of new cases (2070 today) here is the high for Thailand, but globally, it is around the 44th highest country. 

I still  hope  and expect the measures taken will pull these numbers down soon, after the folly of Songkran. 

I agree masks should be taken more seriously, I posted how I saw people walking around in BigCX yesterday without masks.  

I am rather more shocked to read elsewhere of how late in the year the vaccinations might well be. 

 

Well the topic being discussed is Thailand, not the rest of the world.  Through most of last year, new daily cases were only in the single or double digits.  Now they are in the thousands PER DAY.  That's kind of shocking by any standard.

 

I realize that if you compare the number of new cases per capita with other countries, it's less worrisome.  I mean for example, on a per capita basis, Thailand is about one 10% of what it is in the US, but my point is that it is growing very fast here now, compared with last year when it pretty much stayed as a flat line.

 

You can consider me a fear-monger if you wish but I am only looking at the numbers from a realistic perspective, not a wishful one.

 

Yes I think I remember a post of yours about you seeing an obnoxious Westerner in Big-C without a mask who you had words with (might have been another poster cuz I thought it was a few days ago) but if that was you, Kudos for doing that!

 

I am also gravely concerned about how slow the vaccine rollout is going here in the Kingdom.  I was always impressed with how well authorities handled the pandemic last year, probably better than almost any country in the world, but I can't say I'm so impressed with their vaccine rollout strategy...but hopefully (like many things here in the Kingdom) they will make changes and thing will improve (I hope).

 

As an expat I find it really annoying that authorities are not more forthcoming on rollout dates.  The only news I've heard is that foreigners will "become eligible" during Phase 3 starting in June, but that's it...just one sentence with no other details.  What "become eligible" actually means is anybody's guess LOL.

 

Again, I'm not out for a fight with you at all.  I'm just really troubled by the current situation.  To be honest, until a few days ago I was one of those people who felt reasonably safe and secure here...until a number of Covid cases were confirmed in a condo right next to mine here in Jomtien, and then when I started to see the real number of new cases mounting everyday all around Thailand, I started to realize things have started changed here in a big way and very quickly.

 

So, I think a lot of other people are probably in the same boat of not realizing how much has changed here in the last few months, and especially in this month of April, and I just think it's important for people to be aware, and not be complacent, and let their guard down because when it comes to a virus like this, we ALL have to take responsibility for each other, not just ourselves.

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by WaveHunter

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

Well the topic being discussed is Thailand, not the rest of the world. 

I think it gives perspective to compare to other places, and of course things can be learned. I just hear Perth, Oz has just gone into another 3 day lockdown, due to an 'escape' of Covid from quarantine.. and an Indian at that.. heaven forbid it is not the new strain there.  

 

It was me, yesterday, 2 falangs walking through Big CX maskless.... I was told not to get too excited!

 

It has also been a concern locally, my Mrs had a friend test positive and at first I thought the two of them had been together in the village over Songkran,  fortunately not. Then her sister got a positive in Europe. 

 

I live in a house, I would feel less secure from Covid in a Condo.....  and to be honest I am keeping myself isolated, apart from a trip to the bank and Big-CX yesterday. 

 

Stay cool, thousands PER DAY has actually only happened the once in Thailand so far, it is a a daily occurrence in the UK...since September 2020, every day. 

 

This latest lockdown will take effect... and it needs to, did I read maybe October before we get vaccinations here?

[WaveHunter]

3 hours ago, jacko45k said:

I think it gives perspective to compare to other places, and of course things can be learned. I just hear Perth, Oz has just gone into another 3 day lockdown, due to an 'escape' of Covid from quarantine.. and an Indian at that.. heaven forbid it is not the new strain there.  

 

It was me, yesterday, 2 falangs walking through Big CX maskless.... I was told not to get too excited!

 

It has also been a concern locally, my Mrs had a friend test positive and at first I thought the two of them had been together in the village over Songkran,  fortunately not. Then her sister got a positive in Europe. 

 

I live in a house, I would feel less secure from Covid in a Condo.....  and to be honest I am keeping myself isolated, apart from a trip to the bank and Big-CX yesterday. 

 

Stay cool, thousands PER DAY has actually only happened the once in Thailand so far, it is a a daily occurrence in the UK...since September 2020, every day. 

 

This latest lockdown will take effect... and it needs to, did I read maybe October before we get vaccinations here?

For sure your perspective of Covid changes radically when it hits home, close up and personal.  Like your wife, I know some people who live in the condo next to mine.  When I saw the police there a couple of nights ago as I walked by and asked a policeman what was going on and he told me, it really send a chill up my spine.  All of the sudden the notion of Covid got very real and scary.

 

I'm not trying to freak anyone out but I just think too many people are thinking that Covid is old news and the worst is now behind us.  I don't think it is, and I think people should take it more seriously now than ever.  These new variants are way more transmissible and virulent, and it's too early to know how effective the vaccines will be against them.  What's more, these variants are not static but continually mutating, so who really knows what the future holds.

 

My point is just that people should take this all very seriously and realize that it's not somebody else's responsibility.  We each have a responsibility not only to ourselves but to each to each other as far as mask wearing, social distancing, and other actions are involved.  And just like you did, it should be a person's responsibility to call others out for violating these common sense practices because they place everybody at risk when they act so irresponsibly. 

 

I think it's safe to assume that we wouldn't be in this mess right now if it weren't largely a result of such irresponsible behavior since the beginning of this year.  I mean, we were all doing so well last year, and then a lot of us just got complacent and started acting stupid.

 

As for "the latest lockdown", I'm not sure what you are referring to.  I know there is some fake story circulating of a lockdown that was supposed to start tonight, but authorities have firmly debunked (and are investigating who started this rumor with the intention of prosecuting them).  People on this forum should be aware that it is being monitored by authorities for such false or misleading comments and remarks so everybody should be extra careful not to spread misinformation, not only because it is morally wrong, but I believe the penalty for even repeating such false information can be as much as 7 years in a Thai prison...yikes!

 

As for official word on when "we" expats can can expect to get vaccinated, I follow the daily official CCSA news briefings and the only official comment I've heard is frustratingly vague, along the lines that foreigners will "...become eligible for vaccination during Phase 3, beginning in June..."  It was only a one sentence comment with no more detail following it.  So, just what "become eligible" means, or any definitive date that we can expect to be vaccinated is really anybody's guess.  All I can say with certainty is I hope it's not as late as October.????

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by WaveHunter

[TaaSaparot]

Any vaccination news about Pattaya?

[jacko45k]

9 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

As for "the latest lockdown", I'm not sure what you are referring to. 

This is the third time restrictions have been applied around Thailand. Whether the Government refers to it as a lockdown or whatever title......it started a week ago immediately after Songkran.  Prior to that I was planning a few night out over Songkran.  To me it either means the restaurant nearby is either closed, or as was the case last night, only allowing me a soda water with my meal. That is what I mean. If it means stay indoors, that would be a curfew... fortunately not. 

Edited April 23, 2021 by jacko45k

[WaveHunter]

4 hours ago, jacko45k said:

This is the third time restrictions have been applied around Thailand. Whether the Government refers to it as a lockdown or whatever title......it started a week ago immediately after Songkran.  Prior to that I was planning a few night out over Songkran.  To me it either means the restaurant nearby is either closed, or as was the case last night, only allowing me a soda water with my meal. That is what I mean. If it means stay indoors, that would be a curfew... fortunately not. 

OK, yeah a lot of restrictions are back for sure which sucks, but there was a totally unfounded rumor floating around that there was to be a sudden kingdom wide lockdown that was supposed to start last night, which obviously proved to be untrue.

[WaveHunter]

9 hours ago, TaaSaparot said:

Any vaccination news about Pattaya?

Just that foreigners will "become eligible" during Phase 3 beginning in June, according to the official CCSA (English speaking) daily briefings.  I listen to these daily briefing every day and it's so frustrating that this is the only comment that's been made with no more detail or explanation of what "become eligible" even means.

[Jeffr2]

Ugh....

 

[jacko45k]

Oh dear, heading the wrong way with momentum.

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

Oh dear, heading the wrong way with momentum.

Seriously!  Sure not what I want to hear...two days in a row with record breaking numbers, and a significant jump on each day ???? ????