People walk past the closed city library as the country struggles with a third wave of infections of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Bangkok Thailand April 26, 2021. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand on Tuesday reported 15 new coronavirus deaths, a new daily record in a fast-rising third wave that has prompted new shutdowns in Bangkok and other areas

 

The Health Ministry also reported 2,179 more daily cases. Thailand for months had suppressed the virus but a new outbreak emerged several weeks ago.

 

(Writing by Kay Johnson; Editing by Ed Davies)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-04-27

 

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Although deaths will continue to climb for a bit, it appears that the epidemic has reached a plateau.

 

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The grim death toll today brings Thailand's total COVID death count just during the country's third wave outbreak in April to 69, and a total of 163 COVID deaths since the world pandemic began in early 2000. COVID deaths in Thailand began increasing about a week after the end of the country's mid-month New Year's holidays when many travel and socialize. A government spokesman said 9 of the 15 new deaths occurred in Bangkok, most with some type of preexisting health condition.

 

The Ministry of Public Health also is reporting that it now has 25,973 people in various kinds of hospital facilities after testing positive for COVID.  Of those, 628 were reported to be in critical condition, up from 563 the day before. Of those in critical condition, 169 were reported requiring ventilators to breathe, up from 150 the day before.

 

The government's policy is to require some type of hospitalization for anyone testing positive for COVID. In a bit of good news, meanwhile, a government spokesman said the backlog of citizens with COVID awaiting admission to hospitals had been reduced to about 200 as of yesterday, down from numbers as high as 1,400 or more in the past week.

 

The 2,179 new COVID cases reported Tuesday represents a 6 percent uptick from yesterday's 2,048 total, and Thailand's fifth consecutive day of 2,000+ new case reports. The country's peak thus far for reported daily new cases came last Saturday, April 24, with 2,839.

 

In another development, meanwhile, a government spokesman said health officials will recommend this Thursday to reimpose a mandatory 14 day COVID quarantine on all incoming international travelers to Thailand. That original 14 day quarantine has lately been reduced to 10 days, but that was before the recent steep rise in local cases.

 

Thailand's recent COVID daily deaths:

 

April 16 -- 0

April 17 -- 2

April 18 -- 2

April 19 -- 3

April 20 -- 4

April 21 -- 2

April 22 -- 7

April 23 -- 4

April 24 -- 8

April 25 -- 11

April 26 -- 8

April 27 -- 15

 

Also, daily new cases, critical hospital cases, and the portion of those on ventilators since March 22, 2021: (Note: the MoPH only began consistently publicly reporting the critical case and ventilator case numbers in recent weeks.)

 

 

https://pmdscully.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/dashboard-covid-19-thailand_april27th2021_pm.pdf

 

Almost a doubling of deaths since the beginning of the month? 

7 minutes ago, Thailand said:

Almost a doubling of deaths since the beginning of the month? 

Deaths lag new positive cases by 3 weeks.

 

The ratio between new cases and fatalities is now a little under 1 percent.

9 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Although deaths will continue to climb for a bit, it appears that the epidemic has reached a plateau.

 

The rate of increase has possibly reached a plateau.

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Deaths lag new positive cases by 3 weeks.

 

I'd say 2 to 3. It seems that the more virulous strains we have now kill a bit quicker. 1 to 2 with pre-existing conditions

Cases holding steady for 3 days in a row...is this the start of a trend? It's good no signs of exponential growth from the Songkran wave.

So glad they have it under control! ????

11 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Although deaths will continue to climb for a bit, it appears that the epidemic has reached a plateau.

How do you figure we have reached a plateau with cases? These cases today are possibly still from the testing that was from Friday or Saturday.  Tomorrows numbers will tell us if we are flat lining or if we have an increase that may be the tell all.  Then add in the fact that in the paper we can not name there is an article indicating many of the labs failed to pass on the numbers of positive cases and failed to find those positive individuals a hospital or location to be housed. I hope we have reached a slow down of cases but there is no way to know as of now.

16 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Although deaths will continue to climb for a bit, it appears that the epidemic has reached a plateau.

Don't you realize the numbers are low because it's Tuesday, and these are still "weekend" numbers ????

We don't know about the Re number,if above 1 it's mean the outbreak go up,if down 1 the good way to reduce some restrictions.

17 minutes ago, Thailand said:

Almost a doubling of deaths since the beginning of the month? 

Yes the law of small numbers can appear dramatic; like the day deaths went from 1 to 2, it was a 100% rise.

Per The Thai Enquirer:

 

"A curfew/partial lockdown has been introduced in the following six provinces to stem the tide of Covid-19."

 

Note: the curfews listed here are generally voluntary ones where the local governments have asked residents to stay home during those hours.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ThaiEnquirer/posts/307869544033919

 

16 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Deaths lag new positive cases by 3 weeks.

 

The ratio between new cases and fatalities is now a little under 1 percent.

So right in the WHO mortality rate range of between a half to one percent.

12 minutes ago, MikeyIdea said:

 

I'd say 2 to 3. It seems that the more virulous strains we have now kill a bit quicker. 1 to 2 with pre-existing conditions

My understanding is there aren't more "virulous" strains...only more transmissable ones that infect more people more quickly (including the sick and elderly) causing more deaths.

Just now, Pattaya Spotter said:

So right in the WHO mortality rate of between a half to one percent.

The WHO numbers are so low because they have to include countries that don't report accurately. The fatality rate people are concerned about is for the general public, where, for example, in Britain, its 1864 deaths per million.

 

The fatality rate for infecteds is all over the place, its about 10 percent for Mexico.

 

If this epidemic takes off, the fatality rate will certainly increase on a per capita basis.

Just now, Pattaya Spotter said:

My understanding is there aren't more "virulous" strains...only more transmissable ones that infect more people more quickly (including the sick and elderly) causing more deaths.

 

The Brazilian strain is definitely more lethal, but seems to be overwhelmed by the less lethal but more infectious UK strain. The Indian Double Mutant strain would seem to be more lethal, but its very new.

 

What we need is a really infectious but benign mutation.

8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

The WHO numbers are so low because they have to include countries that don't report accurately. The fatality rate people are concerned about is for the general public, where, for example, in Britain, its 1864 deaths per million.

 

The fatality rate for infecteds is all over the place, its about 10 percent for Mexico.

 

If this epidemic takes off, the fatality rate will certainly increase on a per capita basis.

 

The WHO has opined that the mortality rate from Sars-Cov2 virus infection is between a half to one percent of those infected. Or maybe you have more expertise or resources than the WHO standing behind your assertions. 

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

What we need is a really infectious but benign mutation.

On this we agree...and viruses over time generally mutate to become less lethal. It's in their nasty little interest not to kill off all their hosts. 

Just now, Pattaya Spotter said:

You sound like a Covid science denier...the WHO has opined that the mortality rate from Sars-Cov2 virus infection is between a half to one percent of those infected. Or maybe you have more expertise or resources than the WHO standing behind your assertions. 

WHO bases its assessment on the available data, for better or worse.

 

In real life, the UK has had a fatality rate of about 2 percent, the US, a little more than 1 percent. Those are facts. Or my math is bad.

The good news for today is that we won't get deluged by posts about the definition of "exponential", nor the usual messages about the incompetence of the Thai government (except when it comes to vaccines).

On a Daily basis, there are figures published on the number of Covid cases found positive, Etc Etc.

All of these reported cases are from the most populated areas of the Country IE Bangkok, Sumat Prakan, Chonburi Etc.

How many, I wonder are not going reported from the lesser populated Areas of the Country Eg Korat Surin Etc

There do not appear to be so many reported cases from these Provinces, although , they are the Provinces that all the City dwellers of Bangkok migrated too for Songkran.

Or, have  I missed something

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/posts/4205903989432983

 

https://www.tatnews.org/2021/04/malls-shops-to-close-early-in-18-red-zone-provinces-from-25-april-2-may-2021/

 

Struggling hoteliers eye the exit as occupancy plummets

 

"The fresh wave of Covid-19 has severely affected tourism and hospitality businesses in Thailand with occupancy rates at domestic hotels dropping to 5-30 per cent, forcing many operators to sell their businesses to cut losses, said Thammajak Leuangprasert, president of Arjarnnar Asset Management Group.

 

“Some hotels affected by the outbreak for more than a year have managed to stay afloat with the help of soft loans and the debt moratorium programme, while some have decided to sell their businesses to foreign investment groups,” he said.

 

“Currently there are European and Chinese companies looking to buy 4-5 star hotels in Thailand priced at over Bt2 billion, while 3-star hotels are also desirable provided they are in a prime location.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/40000268

 

46 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Although deaths will continue to climb for a bit, it appears that the epidemic has reached a plateau.

What makes you think that? New infections hovered at just under a thousand for a few days, and then around 1400 for a bit before jumping, if I remember correctly.

33 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Don't you realize the numbers are low because it's Tuesday, and these are still "weekend" numbers ????

Chonburi went up over the weekend but lower again today. Cant trust this mid week testing I guess!

 

6 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

On a Daily basis, there are figures published on the number of Covid cases found positive, Etc Etc.

All of these reported cases are from the most populated areas of the Country IE Bangkok, Sumat Prakan, Chonburi Etc.

How many, I wonder are not going reported from the lesser populated Areas of the Country Eg Korat Surin Etc

There do not appear to be so many reported cases from these Provinces, although , they are the Provinces that all the City dwellers of Bangkok migrated too for Songkran.

Or, have  I missed something

 

"Or, have  I missed something"

 

You missed the behaviour of pandemics. Pandemics spread mostly from areas with maximum case density  by way of maximum contacts.  Spread to more remote rural areas can be slow.

 

11 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

On a Daily basis, there are figures published on the number of Covid cases found positive, Etc Etc.

All of these reported cases are from the most populated areas of the Country IE Bangkok, Sumat Prakan, Chonburi Etc.

How many, I wonder are not going reported from the lesser populated Areas of the Country Eg Korat Surin Etc

There do not appear to be so many reported cases from these Provinces, although , they are the Provinces that all the City dwellers of Bangkok migrated too for Songkran.

Or, have  I missed something

 

 

It has been stated that some provinces have had problems reporting the number of positive cases accurately. They never mentioned which provinces.

Fingers crossed the curve is flattening out.