Thailand, 47% of hotels expected to close in the next three months

[Brierley]

The WHO has said they believe the response to covid was too slow globally and as a result global immunity is unlikely to ever be achieved. Mutations will continue to outpace vaccine development until such time as a game changer vaccine comes along that is one size fits all (mutants).

[kingofthemountain]

15 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Have you look at the various completed epidemiological studies by any chance?

Most of the epidemiological studies are still a work in progress

as the virus changes frequently and all the studies need more time

and more participants to be really accurate

 

So far the epidemiologist agree on one point:

they have learn a lot about the covid 19 in very little time

but there are still a lot of questions without answers

 

That is my last answer to you, and the last time i read something from you

i can not accept to be threatened like you did when you participate in a debate

on a free expression forum, maybe you are in Thailand since too long and you

think Prayuth style is the norm in the world when in fact it is not

 

have a nice day and welcome on my ignored list

[pedro01]

3 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

One consistent aspect of the forum is the  inconsistency of opinion. I have been reading for many years and prior to Covid the consistent complaint was;

- Too many hotels, too many beds;

-Thailand had over developed

-Air BnB was killing the hotel sector

- Hotel industry had chronic shortage of  workers

 

Now, a story suggests that some hotels may close. Ok.  What is so wrong with that if the problems I list are real? Would Thailand not be better to be rid of some of these places that hover at 2* rating on a good day?  Fewer rooms mean that the hotel industry would have better occupancy rate and make a better profit. Antigua, Turks and Caicos and Barbados do very well with the strategy. Phuket was filled with too many low quality places and if some shut down it won't be a bad outcome.  I don't think the better quality hotels will be lost. There are a lot of hotels who were built  20, 30, 40, years ago and who have not really been kept up. I can think of several in Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Patong.

 

 

They won't be "rid of". They will go bankrupt, then that will be going through the courts for years while they sit there rotting.

 

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

I don't think the better quality hotels will be lost.

Dhara Dhevi in Chiang Mai ......... closed.

And that was about as good a quality as you could get in Thailand.

[placeholder]

55 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

My personal opinion, is that everyone will catch COVID, same as everyone catches flu and colds.

Closing the country will just change the timeframes of when it becomes commonplace.

The UK, USA and Europe had it last year, and those likely to die of it have already departed.

Thailand, Cambodia, Laos are in the process of getting it.

Australia and NZ have it still to come.

 

Will the vaccines change anything? ............. maybe, but maybe the variants will out-change the vaccines.

  

And the precipitous decline in cases in Israel and the UK are just figments of our imaginations?

Edited May 13, 2021 by placeholder

[canthai55]

20 hours ago, 86Tiger said:

How long will it take for a closed hotel to be over taken by mold/mildew in hot/humid Thailand.  It will take more cash to clean & refurbish than start over.

There way a multi story - at least 15 - hotel or condo which sat partially finished for years on Jomtien beach road. 6 or 7 years I can remember. Came in and finished off the remaining stories, opened it up without doing any remedial work to that rebar that let water in for all those years.

Caveat Emptor

[canthai55]

32 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Dhara Dhevi in Chiang Mai ......... closed.

And that was about as good a quality as you could get in Thailand.

Went to a wedding reception there.

Guests had to change rooms due to roof leaks allowing water to pour into villas.

So it had been going downhill for a good while

[sapson]

5 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Shame Thailand doesn't have a vaccine programme... it could have been reopening by now... 

But hey, Prayut has an in-house plan.

 

Exactly if wing and a Prayut had started mass testing a year ago and got a real idea of the situation and followed it up with a mass vaccination program for all, six months ago , they could seriously now be planning ahead for possible limited tourist numbers ...........instead they us and anyone living here are in for a turbulent ride.

[placeholder]

40 minutes ago, kingofthemountain said:

Most of the epidemiological studies are still a work in progress

as the virus changes frequently and all the studies need more time

and more participants to be really accurate

 

So far the epidemiologist agree on one point:

they have learn a lot about the covid 19 in very little time

but there are still a lot of questions without answers

 

That is my last answer to you, and the last time i read something from you

i can not accept to be threatened like you did when you participate in a debate

on a free expression forum, maybe you are in Thailand since too long and you

think Prayuth style is the norm in the world when in fact it is not

 

have a nice day and welcome on my ignored list

And the evidence consistently so far points to the conclusion that coronovac is highly potent against hospitalizations and death.

Despite which you posted one falsehood, namely "with an efficiency of only 50% in the best cases against the ''classic'' covid 19"

and invented one fact:  "and no efficiency at all against the new india and south africa strains"

 

As for threatening you, if that's the case then so is Thaivisa which has pinned a post warning people about running afoul of Thai laws by posting falsehoods that would promote unfounded fears. On the same principle that shouting fire in a crowded theater is not protected speech.  

Of course, what you're up to in blocking me is a kind of failed moral jujitsu. You get caught out and then get on your high horse when exposed. 

[Thomas J]

7 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Without the lock down, millions more would be dead

Show me one just one STATISTIC showing lockdowns significantly reduced the spread of the virus.  Millions more dead without a quarantine is a statement made with ZERO factual evidence to back it up.  It is akin to saying that if you wear a garlic necklace and carry a cross that it will protect you from covid,  you do it and then proclaim " see it would be much worse if people were not required to use the garlic and carry the cross".

Some have even theorized that quarantines are counterproductive in that they keep people together in close proximity without fresh air.  Who knows.  

  By contrast, in the USA states with the strictest quarantines and Covid measures such as New York and New Jersey have Covid rates that are higher than Texas and Florida with no quarantine.  Florida is filled with elderly which are the most susceptible to Covid. 

In Europe the U.K. which had some of the strictest quarantine measures was one of the worst for deaths.  As previously mentioned, Sweden which not only did not have any quarantines, it had no mask mandates has a rate only fractionally higher than than Latvia and Lithuania which as you can see from the attached map are geographically closer to Sweden than Finland or Denmark.   Countries even closer than Sweden to Denmark such as Poland, Germany and the Netherlands all who have higher Covid rates.  So the correlation between quarantines and covid infections is not established. All the statistics show is that there is no consistent pattern.

 New York has a high Covid rate and has strict mandates.  In close proximity is Washington DC an entirely urban area with 50% black population blacks have been reported have a higher Covid infection rate but Washington D.C. has a low infection rate. 

.Even if quarantines are effective they are certainly at best having a minimal impact on preventing a virus that if contracted has a 95% chance that you will not need to be hospitalized, and a 99.5% chance of recovery and those rates are even MUCH LOWER if you examine only the younger working age population.  By contrast it is 100% certainty that quarantines will destroy businesses, cost people the ability to make a living and will have a long term detrimental impact on the economy and hence its people.

 

  The virus "if" the vaccines are effective will eventually solve the Covid pandemic.  However once those businesses are destroyed, people's lives ruined, the hotels closed, the recovery for them will not happen when they government pronounces the virus is contained, you can all go back to work now. 

If and I stress if Covid measures make any sense it is to restrict the elderly and those with other significant illnesses.  These are the people " at risk.  Not the 28 year old beautician, the 32 year old waitress, or the 25 year old hotel hostess.   At least let the working age population go back to work, let its business survive and keep the old people which includes me quarantined. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by Thomas J

[Thomas J]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

My personal opinion, is that everyone will catch COVID, same as everyone catches flu and colds.

Closing the country will just change the timeframes of when it becomes commonplace.

I agree with you.  Despite decades of research and countless vaccines between 5% and 20% of the worlds population catches the flu with the average being 9% a year.   If mankind has not been successful in containing those virus's to somehow think that "this time will be different" is just plain kidding yourself.  

I too suspect that the vast majority of mankind will come into contact with the coronavirus and develop natural antibodies to it.  Some just by virtue of their body chemistry will have severe symptoms.  Others might not even know they have contracted Covid.  If the quarantines had any measurable impact it is as you say, they delayed when not if people got the virus.  As soon as life started to approach normality again, the virus had "another wave"  I have repeatedly said, even if an individual country is totally successful in eliminating Covid within its borders - Then What? Remain isolated from the rest of the world until it too is also Covid free. That time frame I suspect is as close as eternity to anything here on earth. 

 

[Jeffr2]

26 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Show me one just one STATISTIC showing lockdowns significantly reduced the spread of the virus.  Millions more dead without a quarantine is a statement made with ZERO factual evidence to back it up.  It is akin to saying that if you wear a garlic necklace and carry a cross that it will protect you from covid,  you do it and then proclaim " see it would be much worse if people were not required to use the garlic and carry the cross".

Some have even theorized that quarantines are counterproductive in that they keep people together in close proximity without fresh air.  Who knows.  

  By contrast, in the USA states with the strictest quarantines and Covid measures such as New York and New Jersey have Covid rates that are higher than Texas and Florida with no quarantine.  Florida is filled with elderly which are the most susceptible to Covid. 

In Europe the U.K. which had some of the strictest quarantine measures was one of the worst for deaths.  As previously mentioned, Sweden which not only did not have any quarantines, it had no mask mandates has a rate only fractionally higher than than Latvia and Lithuania which as you can see from the attached map are geographically closer to Sweden than Finland or Denmark.   Countries even closer than Sweden to Denmark such as Poland, Germany and the Netherlands all who have higher Covid rates.  So the correlation between quarantines and covid infections is not established. All the statistics show is that there is no consistent pattern.

 New York has a high Covid rate and has strict mandates.  In close proximity is Washington DC an entirely urban area with 50% black population blacks have been reported have a higher Covid infection rate but Washington D.C. has a low infection rate. 

.Even if quarantines are effective they are certainly at best having a minimal impact on preventing a virus that if contracted has a 95% chance that you will not need to be hospitalized, and a 99.5% chance of recovery and those rates are even MUCH LOWER if you examine only the younger working age population.  By contrast it is 100% certainty that quarantines will destroy businesses, cost people the ability to make a living and will have a long term detrimental impact on the economy and hence its people.

 

  The virus "if" the vaccines are effective will eventually solve the Covid pandemic.  However once those businesses are destroyed, people's lives ruined, the hotels closed, the recovery for them will not happen when they government pronounces the virus is contained, you can all go back to work now. 

If and I stress if Covid measures make any sense it is to restrict the elderly and those with other significant illnesses.  These are the people " at risk.  Not the 28 year old beautician, the 32 year old waitress, or the 25 year old hotel hostess.   At least let the working age population go back to work, let its business survive and keep the old people which includes me quarantined. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Good gosh.  You really need better sources for your news.  Mind boggling.

[placeholder]

41 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

In Europe the U.K. which had some of the strictest quarantine measures was one of the worst for deaths.  As previously mentioned, Sweden which not only did not have any quarantines, it had no mask mandates has a rate only fractionally higher than than Latvia and Lithuania which as you can see from the attached map are geographically closer to Sweden than Finland or Denmark.   Countries even closer than Sweden to Denmark such as Poland, Germany and the Netherlands all who have higher Covid rates.  So the correlation between quarantines and covid infections is not established. All the statistics show is that there is no consistent pattern.

 

If Thomas J had only the slightest grasp of geography it might inspire more confidence in what he claims. Sweden shares quite a long border with Finland. It is connected by a bridge and a tunnel to Denmark. total length about 12 kilometers. So, no, Latvia and Lithuania are not closer to Sweden than is Denmark or Finland. In fact they are what most of us would call "farther" from Sweden And no, Poland and the Netherlands are not closer to Denmark than is Sweden. In fact, they are obviously much further. However, even though technically Denmark is no further from Sweden than is Germany since both Scandinavians nation share a border, out of a sense of mercy I'll give him that one.

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by placeholder

[bangon04]

On 5/12/2021 at 9:14 AM, petedk said:

And how many will be bought up by Chinese gangs?

I know they go for the property market here.

There is plenty of money in China - looking for a place to park.....

[Jeffr2]

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

My personal opinion, is that everyone will catch COVID, same as everyone catches flu and colds.

Closing the country will just change the timeframes of when it becomes commonplace.

The UK, USA and Europe had it last year, and those likely to die of it have already departed.

Thailand, Cambodia, Laos are in the process of getting it.

Australia and NZ have it still to come.

 

Will the vaccines change anything? ............. maybe, but maybe the variants will out-change the vaccines.

  

You are aware that herd immunity is impossible with this virus.  And if tried, massive amounts of people will die.  Millions and millions.  Which will devastate entire economies. The only way to beat it is with jabs, which we don't have. 

[placeholder]

24 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Good gosh.  You really need better sources for your news.  Mind boggling.

Maybe there's an alternate planet earth where Latvia and Lithuania really are closer to Sweden than Finland and Denmark. And on that same planet Poland and the Netherlands are closer to Denmark than Sweden is.

[Thomas J]

43 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Good gosh.  You really need better sources for your news.  Mind boggling.

At least I present backup for my statements.  I HAVE SEEN YOU ONLY USE THE GOUTA METHOD.  Facts: Grabbed Out OF The Air. 

If you can't associate figures from factual sources and comprehend distances on a map, I can surely better understand the things you say in your posts. 

[bloodyholly]

Think of a number between 1 & 100 .....

[Thomas J]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

Good gosh.  You really need better sources for your news.  Mind boggling.

Now as stated YOU NEVER POST ANYTHING with confirming sources because "you know it all"

Now I am sure you will find these sources questionable. but how many would you like to show you that the statement seems to be at wide variance to studies from other countries.  As I stated, do you really think that the Thailand government/health agency would ever announce a study that specifically was in any way derogatory towards the Chinese? 

BANGKOK (NNT) - A study, by Chulalongkorn University’s Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology, has found that both the Sinovac and AstraZeneca vaccines are helpful in stimulating immunity against COVID-19.

Prof Dr Yong Poovorawan, a senior virologist at Chulalongkorn University, explained that people who get the first AstraZeneca jab had a 98.3% immunity against COVID-19, compared to 99.4% in people who had received the second Sinovac jab and 92.4% in people who had been infected with COVID-19.

 

[Dogmatix]

This article is far too pessimistic.  The hotels will surely be saved by the government's plan to open the country to vaccinated tourists entering via Phuket from 1st July. Most foreigners cannot imagine a nicer way to spend their summer holidays than visiting a third world country that is experiencing a totally out of control epidemic with temple crematoriums working over time amidst a largly unvaccinated population. Lying on the beach in hazmat suits and taking selfies of oneself walking alone in a empty and shuttered Bangla Street will make them the envy of all their friends back home. 

[kingofthemountain]

28 minutes ago, Dogmatix said:

The hotels will surely be saved by the government's plan to open the country to vaccinated tourists entering via Phuket from 1st July.

This plan is not going to happens

there is absolutely 0 chance Thailand will be open to 

foreign tourists without the 2 weeks quarantine requirment

even for the vaccinated ones

[Andycoops]

No doubt the ones that survive will double or treble their prices in the usual Thai manner as a way to attract customers.

[connda]

On 5/12/2021 at 2:04 PM, kynikoi said:

All the hotels near me and upper Central Bank are shuttered.

 

What I find absolutely a mystery is how these hotels and especially condo developers have not been foreclosed upon.

 

Especially the condo developers no one has such deep pockets that they can sit on 15 or 20 multiple hundred unit condos literally for five or six years.

 

I think that the the government is backstopping a lot of the big money and I believe that for certain individuals in crony capitalism that loans have been frozen.

 

As a point of fact tourism has not been good for years even before this covid thing hit

They keep pouring hate on foreigners, especially in places like Phuket.  That will blow-back on them.  Years of treating foreigners like dirt and the bill just came due. 
For all of TAT happy talk, tourism is in terminal decline and they will continue to decimate what remains in the name of containing the dirty foreign threat to the nation that every foreigner poses to Thai national security in all those pea-sized brains that seek to regulate and diss all thing foreign.  They have two goals: Monitor every move made by dirty foreigners and extract as much wealth from vacationing foreigners without giving back even an ounce of mutual respect.  It's the Thai-way or the highway?  Well Somchai, the foreigners have just taken the on-ramp to the highways outta here and have collectively pushed the gas pedal to the metal.  "See ya!"  Best of luck with the hotel failures and the upcoming destruction of what is left of your once vibrant tourism industry. 
You killed it!  Congratulations! 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Thomas J said:

Show me one just one STATISTIC showing lockdowns significantly reduced the spread of the virus.  Millions more dead without a quarantine is a statement made with ZERO factual evidence to back it up.  It is akin to saying that if you wear a garlic necklace and carry a cross that it will protect you from covid,  you do it and then proclaim " see it would be much worse if people were not required to use the garlic and carry the cross".
 

 Effects of social distancing on the spreading of COVID-19 inferred from mobile phone data

Epidemiological parameters were extracted from the number of daily deaths data, while mitigation efforts are estimated from mobile phone tracking data. The decrease of the basic reproductive number (R0R0) as well as the duration of the initial exponential expansion phase of the epidemic strongly correlates with the magnitude of mobility reduction. Utilizing these relationships we decipher the relative impact of the timing and the extent of social distancing on the total death burden of the pandemic.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81308-2

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Dhara Dhevi in Chiang Mai ......... closed.

And that was about as good a quality as you could get in Thailand.

Actually, the Dhara Dhevi was in trouble before Covid hit.

https://www.chiangraitimes.com/thailand-national-news/northen-thailand/employees-of-chiang-mais-famous-dhara-dhevi-hotel-claim-their-owed-bt100million-in-unpaid-wages/

[EricTh]

I wanted to go on a holiday but hotel price is still high in Bangkok.

[DrJack54]

3 hours ago, Thomas J said:

Show me one just one STATISTIC showing lockdowns significantly reduced the spread of the virus. 

Worked in Australia.

In particular Melbourne where they had HARD lockdown for 112 days.

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Thomas J said:

I agree with you.  Despite decades of research and countless vaccines between 5% and 20% of the worlds population catches the flu with the average being 9% a year.   If mankind has not been successful in containing those virus's to somehow think that "this time will be different" is just plain kidding yourself.  

Flu Has Disappeared Worldwide during the COVID Pandemic

The public health measures that slow the spread of the novel coronavirus work really well on influenza

Since the novel coronavirus began its global spread, influenza cases reported to the World Health Organization have dropped to minuscule levels. The reason, epidemiologists think, is that the public health measures taken to keep the coronavirus from spreading also stop the flu. Influenza viruses are transmitted in much the same way as SARS-CoV-2, but they are less effective at jumping from host to host.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-has-disappeared-worldwide-during-the-covid-pandemic1/#:~:text=Since the novel coronavirus began,have dropped to minuscule levels.

 

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Thomas J said:

Show me one just one STATISTIC showing lockdowns significantly reduced the spread of the virus.  Millions more dead without a quarantine is a statement made with ZERO factual evidence to back it up.  It is akin to saying that if you wear a garlic necklace and carry a cross that it will protect you from covid,  you do it and then proclaim " see it would be much worse if people were not required to use the garlic and carry the cross".

Some have even theorized that quarantines are counterproductive in that they keep people together in close proximity without fresh air.  Who knows.  

 As previously mentioned, Sweden which not only did not have any quarantines, it had no mask mandates has a rate only fractionally higher than than Latvia and Lithuania which as you can see from the attached map are geographically closer to Sweden than Finland or Denmark.   Countries even closer than Sweden to Denmark such as Poland, Germany and the Netherlands all who have higher Covid rates. 

Øresund Region

The Øresund Region (Danish: Øresundsregionen [ˈøːɐsɔnsʁekiˌoˀnn̩]; Swedish: Öresundsregionen [œːrɛˈsɵ̂nːdsrɛɡɪˌuːnɛn]), also known as Greater Copenhagen for marketing purposes,[1] is a metropolitan region that comprises eastern Denmark and Skåne in southern Sweden. Centred around the Øresund strait and the two cities which lie on either side, Copenhagen in Denmark and Malmö in Sweden, the region is connected by the Øresund Bridge, which spans the strait at its southern end, and the HH Ferry route between Helsingør, Denmark, and Helsingborg, Sweden, at the narrowest point of the strait.

The Capital Region of Denmark and Region Zealand constitute the Danish side, while Scania constitutes the Swedish side.[2] 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Øresund_Region

[Showtime]

6 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Good post.

 

The Sinovac 50% efficacy figure is misleading a lot of people. 

 

Sinovac has 50.4 % efficacy against Covid-19 (i.e. 50% of people do not contract Covid-19 at all)

Sinovac has 78 % efficacy against mild Covid-19 cases

Sinovac has 100 % efficacy against moderate to serious Covid-19 cases

 

 

 

 

 

your statement that 50% of people do not contract Covid-19 at all is completely inaccurate.  You are mixing efficacy up with effectiveness.  They are not the same thing.

 

During testing assuming half the test subjects get the vaccine and the other half don't, the efficacy calculation is (1 - (# who were vaccinated who got COVID/# who weren't vaccinated who got COVID)).

 

In the Pfizer trials, there were 43,660 test subject, half of which got the COVID shot. Out of those who got the shot, 8 got COVID. Out of those who didn't get the shot, 162 got COVID.