Over to you crypto fanboys

[GrandPapillon]

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

I doubt it very much. After all we're already seeing huge advances in power technology, hydro batteries etc. A classic case of technological convergence.

 

It's great for instant money transfers as well. You can launder money with normal money, but nobody made it illegal. ML is already illegal anyway.

 

Some countries may try to regulate bitcoin out of existence but it won't work. Because another country won't. It's like when the US put in regulations that created Eurobonds in London. Another jurisdiction will run with it.

I think you underestimate the power of regulations, it will take years, but they will make it impossible for the small guys to buy those things, and it's easy for world organization to put any non-compliant jurisdiction in the "<deleted> list" box ????

 

where does your exchange source the price of BTC? because everything works in sillot, you are going to get a lot of prices that can be arbitraged away or clearly manipulated by the exchange

[fdsa]

the "government regulation" will be beneficial for cryptocurrencies because:

- it will be a godsend for the early investors as they could easily sell their thousands/hundreds/even tens of bitcoins, pay tax and walk away whistling, without getting any tough questions from IRS. Now they could sell only tiny parts of their bitcoins worth 4-5 digits USD to stay under radar.

- for the "general public" the cryptocurrencies will not be a tool of terrorists and drug dealers anymore, but a legal tender. So more people will invest in cryptocurrencies and/or use them daily.

[Logosone]

19 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

ok you are in FOREX, buying any currency is a pair by default, I was assuming you were buying actual BTC contracts

 

yeah, those FOREX exchanges can be quite dodgy too, in the early 2000s, they were the equivalent of cryptos for bored farang expats who needed the actions ????

 

That's actually true to some extent, there are a lot of fly by night Forex people around. You really need to find a real professional learn the strategy and know what you're doing. I was lucky I met a true Forex trader who walked into my office in Cayman when I was a lawyer there, and I learned my strategy from him. But yah, you really really need to know what you're doing with Forex and there's a lot of bs out there.

 

But you are misunderstanding Forex trading. Forex is not traded on exchanges for the most part. It is traded OTC. Which is why you can trade forex 24 hours almost. It's mostly unregulated and dictated by market forces. Yet all the major banks trade forex. Big companies like BASF and VW make more trading forex than selling their goods btw.

 

It's not just for "bored farang expats". 

[Logosone]

21 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

I think you underestimate the power of regulations, it will take years, but they will make it impossible for the small guys to buy those things, and it's easy for world organization to put any non-compliant jurisdiction in the "<deleted> list" box ????

 

where does your exchange source the price of BTC? because everything works in sillot, you are going to get a lot of prices that can be arbitraged away or clearly manipulated by the exchange

I think you vastly overestimate the power of regulations. Again, look up the history of the Eurobond. When the US put in regulation for IET  they basically created a huge own goal as the bond market migrated to London. Where was "world organisation" then? There is none. That's why money finds its way to the best locations. Do you think the US, UK and Germany don't want to shut down Cayman? For many years they tried. Impossible.

 

Just because one jurisdiction does something does not mean another will do exactly the same. And I would be very surprised if some major jurisdiction would not be welcoming to Bitcoin & co.

 

The price of the BTC/USD by the way is determined by the market OTC. 

[The Cipher]

45 minutes ago, Logosone said:

But yah, you really really need to know what you're doing with Forex and there's a lot of bs out there.

 

Hm, sounds familiar. I wonder what other type of traded instruments this could apply to ????

[Logosone]

29 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Hm, sounds familiar. I wonder what other type of traded instruments this could apply to ????

 

And yet all major banks now have FOREX trading divisions. And all major companies, BASF, VW, have huge Forex trading operations.

 

The death of Forex is about as likely as the death of Crypto.

 

It's actually the case with everything, if you want to be successful you have to have very good skills. How many people play football? How many in the Premier League? For success you need to know what you're doing. It applies in every field really.

[GrandPapillon]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

 

That's actually true to some extent, there are a lot of fly by night Forex people around. You really need to find a real professional learn the strategy and know what you're doing. I was lucky I met a true Forex trader who walked into my office in Cayman when I was a lawyer there, and I learned my strategy from him. But yah, you really really need to know what you're doing with Forex and there's a lot of bs out there.

 

But you are misunderstanding Forex trading. Forex is not traded on exchanges for the most part. It is traded OTC. Which is why you can trade forex 24 hours almost. It's mostly unregulated and dictated by market forces. Yet all the major banks trade forex. Big companies like BASF and VW make more trading forex than selling their goods btw.

 

It's not just for "bored farang expats". 

I wasn't assuming that FOREX was for bored farangs only, and yes it works in sillo, I know that already, there is no national exchange for all Forex, even though you will find currency Futures and options on regulated exchanges.

 

yes a lot of bs in Forex, hence why I was referring to cryptos, the BS feels the same ????

 

as for trading FOREX, it got to be one of the toughest trading experience out there, the volatility etc... not many traders survive FOREX, and drug use is pandemic. I knew a few FOREX pro, and they all had some kind of substance abuses ???? the whole experience is brutal when you do professionally, even in an asset management firm.

 

I am assuming you use the usual TA techniques, moving averages, waves etc... to create your trades

[GrandPapillon]

28 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

And yet all major banks now have FOREX trading divisions. And all major companies, BASF, VW, have huge Forex trading operations.

 

The death of Forex is about as likely as the death of Crypto.

 

It's actually the case with everything, if you want to be successful you have to have very good skills. How many people play football? How many in the Premier League? For success you need to know what you're doing. It applies in every field really.

FOREX is very much useful, and I think it's the biggest market in the world in notional terms, even bigger than the bond markets

 

currency is very much useful, and FOREX markets create liquidity and price discovery, in terms of value, you can't compare this with cryptos

 

 

[GrandPapillon]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

I think you vastly overestimate the power of regulations. Again, look up the history of the Eurobond. When the US put in regulation for IET  they basically created a huge own goal as the bond market migrated to London. Where was "world organisation" then? There is none. That's why money finds its way to the best locations. Do you think the US, UK and Germany don't want to shut down Cayman? For many years they tried. Impossible.

 

Just because one jurisdiction does something does not mean another will do exactly the same. And I would be very surprised if some major jurisdiction would not be welcoming to Bitcoin & co.

 

The price of the BTC/USD by the way is determined by the market OTC. 

but there is no NBBO for BTC/USD and the market is fragmented, offering a lot of pricing anomalies and arbitrage opportunities

 

there is no national ticker where "last" trade could be reported, so price transparency is basically absent, all you have are thousands of bid/ask with thousands of spreads depending on the crypto platform you use, and to make things worse, actual executed trades are not shared "transparently" among all "exchanges", so there is no way to know if a trade is real or not, at the discretion of the exchange. You could manipulate both side of a bid/ask and create "fake" trades to "fill" the bid or ask and push the prices in the direction you want. Text book case for price manipulation.

 

 

[Logosone]

11 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

I wasn't assuming that FOREX was for bored farangs only, and yes it works in sillo, I know that already, there is no national exchange for all Forex, even though you will find currency Futures and options on regulated exchanges.

 

yes a lot of bs in Forex, hence why I was referring to cryptos, the BS feels the same ????

 

as for trading FOREX, it got to be one of the toughest trading experience out there, the volatility etc... not many traders survive FOREX, and drug use is pandemic. I knew a few FOREX pro, and they all had some kind of substance abuses ???? the whole experience is brutal when you do professionally, even in an asset management firm.

 

I am assuming you use the usual TA techniques, moving averages, waves etc... to create your trades

 

It certainly can feel the same, I have to admit. There's a lot of bs out there with Forex, and a lot with crypto. I know what you mean.  It's true. But there are legit Forex traders of 20 years experience, I met one. Bought his strategy. Tested it. It works. And there are legit crypto currencies and traders. You just have to be careful who you sign up with.

 

I find Forex a lot of fun. Trading forex is really the culmination of philosophy, psychology, maths, and other sciences for me. It is wonderful. Of course there are bad days. Very bad days. Most forex traders have blown up an account, or three, and that's not fun. But thankfully that's not necessary anymore. On many days forex trading is getting up and seeing you made a ton of money by sleeping. Other days you make incredible amounts of money. If you use drugs and trade forex you're probably an idiot. I found being a lawyer, late nights working, deadlines a lot more brutal than trading forex. It's quite relaxed actually, you sit at your laptop and place trades in your own time. Sure if you trade the news it's frantic, but I don't do that. 

 

Yes, I use TA, moving averages, RSI, MACD, Stochastic, but I also use fundamental analysis and news, I monitor that carefully, because news trumps TA. And I have a fantastic strategy which is scientifically proven to work in 70% of trades. Psychology and risk management are still the key though, the hardest and most difficult.

 

I try to only take the best trades, like when Bitcoin is falling, you'd be a fool not to short it. The writing was on the wall.

 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

17 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

FOREX is very much useful, and I think it's the biggest market in the world in notional terms, even bigger than the bond markets

 

currency is very much useful, and FOREX markets create liquidity and price discovery, in terms of value, you can't compare this with cryptos

 

 

 

It is indeed a huge market. So many instruments. So many chances to make money. And open 24 hours on most days. And unregulated for the most part. You've got to love it.

 

It is different to Cryptos, but actually crypto currencies are a part of Forex now. So I can trade a variety of crypto currencies vs the Dollar and it's a wonderful way to make money both if Crypto falls or if it rises. No hassle of holding it.  I really like it.

[Logosone]

17 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

but there is no NBBO for BTC/USD and the market is fragmented, offering a lot of pricing anomalies and arbitrage opportunities

 

there is no national ticker where "last" trade could be reported, so price transparency is basically absent, all you have are thousands of bid/ask with thousands of spreads depending on the crypto platform you use, and to make things worse, actual executed trades are not shared "transparently" among all "exchanges", so there is no way to know if a trade is real or not, at the discretion of the exchange. You could manipulate both side of a bid/ask and create "fake" trades to "fill" the bid or ask and push the prices in the direction you want. Text book case for price manipulation.

 

 

 

There are pricing abnormalities, and of course you find it more with some brokers than with others. You have to do your homework and choose a broker that gives a fair price, and does not try to manipulate the pricing, some do. But they are well known, and black sheep are called out. I'm with an excellent company with great spread.

 

There is actually transparency, because can find out what a fair price for currency pair should be, but yes there is a proliferation of different spreads because some brokers add in a bit. That does happen, but you pick  your broker freely and knowingly.

 

Btw, there is certain transparency about executed trades as well, you can look up where most trades are placed, however, it is not hugely useful because that varies from broker to broker.

 

This fake manipulation you refer to is very rare, because it would be quickly discovered, and when it is a broker is avoided. There is no issue with price manipulation on a grand scale with forex, because the market does dictate price OTC. The minor broker tweaks are well known for those who care to find out.

 

The bigger manipulation is of course the banks who trade in "God mode", they can bring currencies up or down. You will recall one fund, Soros' Quantum fund brought the Bank of England to its knees and go the Pound thrown out of the ERM. I'm much more concerned about big player manipulation by trading, than spread manipulation by brokers.

[GrandPapillon]

ok interesting, I have seen so many traders failed on FOREX, that alone put me off

 

I find comfort in trading Index Futures contracts, which can also be exciting and "relaxing" so I get your drift ????

[Logosone]

22 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

ok interesting, I have seen so many traders failed on FOREX, that alone put me off

 

I find comfort in trading Index Futures contracts, which can also be exciting and "relaxing" so I get your drift ????

 

That's very true, 90 per cent of forex traders do not succeed.

 

But that's the same in every profession, 90% of footballers will never win the Champions League or play in the Premier League.

 

More than 90% of solicitors will not make 2 million pounds a year.

 

More than 90% of actors, of singers do not succeed. 

 

It is ALWAYS a minority who succeed. That's the case in Forex and in every other field.

 

I used to trade CFDs, horrible failure, if you can trade futures power to you. I find Forex a lot easier.

[olfu]

Ok. A lot of time spent reading, opinions presented as facts.

Yes, crypto this and crypto that--yes, hot air balloons flying therefore they are airplanes.

Yes, cryptocurrencies remind me communism--nobody seen it but everybody believes in it.

 

[fdsa]

45 minutes ago, olfu said:

Ok. A lot of time spent reading, opinions presented as facts.

Yes, crypto this and crypto that--yes, hot air balloons flying therefore they are airplanes.

Yes, cryptocurrencies remind me communism--nobody seen it but everybody believes in it.

 

"I don't understand how cryptocurrencies work so I will spread nonsence about them"

[sharksy]

For those who think Crypto has no value and is meaningless because it is digital, have a taste of this then (i'm looking at you, @GrandPapillon).

 

Jack Dorsey's first Tweet sells for $2,900,000

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56492358

 

 

[GrandPapillon]

1 hour ago, sharksy said:

For those who think Crypto has no value and is meaningless because it is digital, have a taste of this then (i'm looking at you, @GrandPapillon).

 

Jack Dorsey's first Tweet sells for $2,900,000

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56492358

 

 

????

 

jesus, no shortage of idiots and fools in this world, some people simply have too much money to waste ????

[GrandPapillon]

4 hours ago, olfu said:

Ok. A lot of time spent reading, opinions presented as facts.

Yes, crypto this and crypto that--yes, hot air balloons flying therefore they are airplanes.

Yes, cryptocurrencies remind me communism--nobody seen it but everybody believes in it.

 

that's a good point, crypto anarchists propaganda does feel like old communism propaganda, not that there is anything wrong with communism per se ????

[GrandPapillon]

5 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

That's very true, 90 per cent of forex traders do not succeed.

 

But that's the same in every profession, 90% of footballers will never win the Champions League or play in the Premier League.

 

More than 90% of solicitors will not make 2 million pounds a year.

 

More than 90% of actors, of singers do not succeed. 

 

It is ALWAYS a minority who succeed. That's the case in Forex and in every other field.

 

I used to trade CFDs, horrible failure, if you can trade futures power to you. I find Forex a lot easier.

I think that number is closer to 99.99% than 90% TBH ????

 

kudo to you for having found a nice FOREX strategy, having such a system is always fun to execute, awesome feeling for seeing your expectations being realized mathematically

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

I think that number is closer to 99.99% than 90% TBH ????

 

kudo to you for having found a nice FOREX strategy, having such a system is always fun to execute, awesome feeling for seeing your expectations being realized mathematically

 

Like I said, I think that's in every profession. 95% of singers or actors don't become successful. 95% of solicitors don't earn 2 million USD a year. 95% of writers don't become successful. 95% of boxers don't become rich.

 

It's always a minority who succeed.

 

And yes, it was an awesome feeling when I tripled my account within 3 months. But it's not an easy thing trading, you learn every day and a good strategy is not enough. You really need to know yourself, your fear, your greed, have discipline. It's really interesting what it teaches you.

 

[GrandPapillon]

some trading genius can do it all with their guts, and get it right, feel the market sentiment and bet against it, no TA, no nothing ????

[Logosone]

21 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

some trading genius can do it all with their guts, and get it right, feel the market sentiment and bet against it, no TA, no nothing ????

 

That does happen on occasion. The problem is they then start to overestimate themselves. Without risk management  that wave of wins will quickly turn to dust. Age old story. Doesn't happen always though. This is a true story, a Swedish guy who was a student of the guy I learned Forex from turned 5000 into 1,2 million USD. He stopped and invested in his business and real estate. He beat the system.

 

There is no genius in the world that can predict markets long term though. They're too complex to be predictable. You can have a winning streak of course. Which is great. But what Soros said is key "I'm rich because I learned to realise when I was wrong and to walk away".

[Walker88]

On 6/2/2021 at 5:23 PM, Logosone said:

 

That does happen on occasion. The problem is they then start to overestimate themselves. Without risk management  that wave of wins will quickly turn to dust. Age old story. Doesn't happen always though. This is a true story, a Swedish guy who was a student of the guy I learned Forex from turned 5000 into 1,2 million USD. He stopped and invested in his business and real estate. He beat the system.

 

There is no genius in the world that can predict markets long term though. They're too complex to be predictable. You can have a winning streak of course. Which is great. But what Soros said is key "I'm rich because I learned to realise when I was wrong and to walk away".

Lots of truth there^.

 

There are few rules about investing, and even fewer approaches that work long term (save for discipline and a willingness to be lucky and know it's luck).  Random walk, CAPM,  blah blah blah.....cute and may get somebody a Nobel in economics (Bill Sharpe and his Capital Asset Pricing Model), but in the real world, what actually moves markets up and down changes regularly. There are fads, rationalizations, euphoria and abject fear---and each has its day.

 

Back in the late 90s to April 2000, it was all about eyeballs. It wasn't profit or even the promise of profit, but just how many eyeballs could a story draw. Pets.com is the Poster Child of that absurdity. Eventually somebody---or everybody---realized the end consumer covers a major cost of pet food delivery, which is driving a 25kg bag of dogfood from the store to a home. A major store (e.g., Costco) has an advantage over an online seller who has to pay---or charge---final delivery cost.  So Pets.com became a cabinet trade (buy back a short at one penny only at the time one wants to realize the gain for tax purposes).

 

Up until 2008 people thought a SYNTHETIC CDO Squared with a CDS attached actually had value, when all were merely private manufactured bets between a Greater Fool and someone else. Then a company like AIG came along and decided that they could take on the entire world's risk. Market players realized risk cannot really be eliminated (with a few exceptions when two parties have opposing needs), but merely passed around like the Old Maid.

 

What hasn't yet hit some crypto investors is that the whole meme of 'companies are accepting it for payment' now looks pretty silly after a two week 50% crash.  How would Tesla or anyone, who might sell product for crypto, hedge the revenue? There is no market where widespread hedging can be done, unlike a multinational company who can hedge currency exposure quite easily.  So, for example, Tesla sells a car for 2 Bitcoins (then worth over $120,000). Two weeks later the Bitcoin is worth less than $70,000. Tesla, unless they immediately sold the Bitcoin payment, is out $50K. Firms that had been accepting payment in Bitcoin now realize their risk, and may well stop. There goes one more supposed use of Bitcoin or crypto.

 

Crypto isn't quite Pets.com, but it is something with limited actual utility. Yes, terrorists and criminals will continue to like it for its seeming anonymity, as will the anti-govt types, but limited use puts a cap on its 'value'. Also, unless Bitcoin or one of the others really attains true and sustainable First Mover status, crypto suffers from something even worse that fiat currency:  it is truly infinite. Anybody can introduce a new crypto, as there is zero barrier to entry. Fiat has as its barrier to entry the fact that it is restricted to nations or unions (e.g., the EU). Get yourself a country and you can issue a new fiat (South Sudan did that in the recent past), but anybody anywhere anytime can issue a new crypto, as it is merely a thought. If the fad moves to Dogecoin, Bitcoin suffers. Today's favored crypto is always in danger of a better mousetrap coming along and replacing it. Since no crypto has any real value---only what someone else is willing to pay---its true downside is zero.....just like Pets.com.

[Walker88]

On 6/1/2021 at 6:42 PM, Heng said:

 

You can certainly touch/drive/ride/and live in the things you can buy with it....       But if we're talking strictly intrinsic value, I'd say portability....through deserts, airports, away from one's wife, invisible to most thieves...  

How long will anyone be able to 'buy things' with it?  When sellers of physical goods realize they are accepting a wildly speculative means of exchange, and there is no way to hedge the risk, they may well stop accepting it.

 

An example I used in another post---but which anyone who currently accepts Bitcoin will see----consider that Tesla could have sold a car at peak Bitcoin for 2 BTCs, worth $120,000 at the time. Two weeks later that BTC was worth less than $70,000.  DId Tesla hedge? How?  Did they sell the BTC? If they did, then they were merely a middleman in a customer cashing out his BTC and then paying $ for his Tesla. Thus, any transaction where BTC is accepted becomes downside pressure on BTC price. Those who now accept BTC in exchange for products are likely to reassess, since they now see they have huge risk.

 

The undeniable speculative nature of the 'asset' truly limits its value as a means of exchange. Crypto has no inherent value. Zero. It is merely a thought, albeit a thought that some are currently willing to buy. I could buy a house at peak in 2008, then lose as the housing bubble burst, but I could still stay warm and dry inside that house. Bitcoin's downside value is zero. Zip. Nada. If someone else doesn't want it, it is absolutely useless, like Russian Tsarist bonds or a million shares of Pets.com.

 

Crypto tries to hang its hat on its finite-ness (as opposed to endlessly, in theory, fiat). But crypto is actually infinite. Individual cryptos might be finite,, but there is no barrier preventing a billion new cryptos from being conjured out of thin air. Ten years ago there was BTC and maybe one or two others. Now there are at least 4000 different cryptos, and the sky is unlimited. Those holding, and having faith in BTC have to believe it will always retain First Mover status. It may not. Someone could look and see what shortcomings BTC has, and conjure a new crypto without those shortcomings.  Ever heard of Visicalc? It was the original spreadsheet. It was great until Excel and a host of others came along that fixed the shortcomings Visicalc had. Boom!

[Logosone]

19 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Lots of truth there^.

 

There are few rules about investing, and even fewer approaches that work long term (save for discipline and a willingness to be lucky and know it's luck).  Random walk, CAPM,  blah blah blah.....cute and may get somebody a Nobel in economics (Bill Sharpe and his Capital Asset Pricing Model), but in the real world, what actually moves markets up and down changes regularly. There are fads, rationalizations, euphoria and abject fear---and each has its day.

 

Back in the late 90s to April 2000, it was all about eyeballs. It wasn't profit or even the promise of profit, but just how many eyeballs could a story draw. Pets.com is the Poster Child of that absurdity. Eventually somebody---or everybody---realized the end consumer covers a major cost of pet food delivery, which is driving a 25kg bag of dogfood from the store to a home. A major store (e.g., Costco) has an advantage over an online seller who has to pay---or charge---final delivery cost.  So Pets.com became a cabinet trade (buy back a short at one penny only at the time one wants to realize the gain for tax purposes).

 

Up until 2008 people thought a SYNTHETIC CDO Squared with a CDS attached actually had value, when all were merely private manufactured bets between a Greater Fool and someone else. Then a company like AIG came along and decided that they could take on the entire world's risk. Market players realized risk cannot really be eliminated (with a few exceptions when two parties have opposing needs), but merely passed around like the Old Maid.

 

What hasn't yet hit some crypto investors is that the whole meme of 'companies are accepting it for payment' now looks pretty silly after a two week 50% crash.  How would Tesla or anyone, who might sell product for crypto, hedge the revenue? There is no market where widespread hedging can be done, unlike a multinational company who can hedge currency exposure quite easily.  So, for example, Tesla sells a car for 2 Bitcoins (then worth over $120,000). Two weeks later the Bitcoin is worth less than $70,000. Tesla, unless they immediately sold the Bitcoin payment, is out $50K. Firms that had been accepting payment in Bitcoin now realize their risk, and may well stop. There goes one more supposed use of Bitcoin or crypto.

 

Crypto isn't quite Pets.com, but it is something with limited actual utility. Yes, terrorists and criminals will continue to like it for its seeming anonymity, as will the anti-govt types, but limited use puts a cap on its 'value'. Also, unless Bitcoin or one of the others really attains true and sustainable First Mover status, crypto suffers from something even worse that fiat currency:  it is truly infinite. Anybody can introduce a new crypto, as there is zero barrier to entry. Fiat has as its barrier to entry the fact that it is restricted to nations or unions (e.g., the EU). Get yourself a country and you can issue a new fiat (South Sudan did that in the recent past), but anybody anywhere anytime can issue a new crypto, as it is merely a thought. If the fad moves to Dogecoin, Bitcoin suffers. Today's favored crypto is always in danger of a better mousetrap coming along and replacing it. Since no crypto has any real value---only what someone else is willing to pay---its true downside is zero.....just like Pets.com.

 

In the real world it is the imperfect understanding of market participants that moves the market, that's exactly right, and it's what Soros' theory of reflexivity has been saying for a while. That markets do not anticipate the future perfectly, but the exact opposite, that they imperfectly understand the future and their imperfect understanding shapes the future.

 

Now, I don't see why you can't hedge bitcoin like any other currency though.

 

And I think instant money transfer is a HUGE draw for anyone, not just criminals.

 

I also don't think you can create an infinite number of bitcoins.

 

So I don't think bitcoin will disappear. You can't make ideas disappear. And people love this idea.

[Susco]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

An example I used in another post---but which anyone who currently accepts Bitcoin will see----consider that Tesla could have sold a car at peak Bitcoin for 2 BTCs, worth $120,000 at the time. Two weeks later that BTC was worth less than $70,000.  DId Tesla hedge? How?  Did they sell the BTC? If they did, then they were merely a middleman in a customer cashing out his BTC and then paying $ for his Tesla. Thus, any transaction where BTC is accepted becomes downside pressure on BTC price. Those who now accept BTC in exchange for products are likely to reassess, since they now see they have huge risk.

 

 

 

Which is the main reason why Tesla retracted on their commitment to accept bitcoin.

 

The 1.5 billion USD of Bitcoin they bought, and used to lift their balance sheet for the previous quarter, most likely will also come bite them in the rectum at the end of the current quarter

[Heng]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

How long will anyone be able to 'buy things' with it?  When sellers of physical goods realize they are accepting a wildly speculative means of exchange, and there is no way to hedge the risk, they may well stop accepting it.

 

An example I used in another post---but which anyone who currently accepts Bitcoin will see----consider that Tesla could have sold a car at peak Bitcoin for 2 BTCs, worth $120,000 at the time. Two weeks later that BTC was worth less than $70,000.  DId Tesla hedge? How?  Did they sell the BTC? If they did, then they were merely a middleman in a customer cashing out his BTC and then paying $ for his Tesla. Thus, any transaction where BTC is accepted becomes downside pressure on BTC price. Those who now accept BTC in exchange for products are likely to reassess, since they now see they have huge risk.

 

The undeniable speculative nature of the 'asset' truly limits its value as a means of exchange. Crypto has no inherent value. Zero. It is merely a thought, albeit a thought that some are currently willing to buy. I could buy a house at peak in 2008, then lose as the housing bubble burst, but I could still stay warm and dry inside that house. Bitcoin's downside value is zero. Zip. Nada. If someone else doesn't want it, it is absolutely useless, like Russian Tsarist bonds or a million shares of Pets.com.

 

Crypto tries to hang its hat on its finite-ness (as opposed to endlessly, in theory, fiat). But crypto is actually infinite. Individual cryptos might be finite,, but there is no barrier preventing a billion new cryptos from being conjured out of thin air. Ten years ago there was BTC and maybe one or two others. Now there are at least 4000 different cryptos, and the sky is unlimited. Those holding, and having faith in BTC have to believe it will always retain First Mover status. It may not. Someone could look and see what shortcomings BTC has, and conjure a new crypto without those shortcomings.  Ever heard of Visicalc? It was the original spreadsheet. It was great until Excel and a host of others came along that fixed the shortcomings Visicalc had. Boom!

 

How long one can run with any ball is always in question.  Myself I have never purchased anything directly with crypto, it's always been converted back to fiat first.   I was referring to the tangible things it has afforded me at present and in the past few years.   Its portability has intrinsic value at $1 a coin or $1,, a coin.     

[Susco]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

And I think instant money transfer is a HUGE draw for anyone, not just criminals.

 

Instant money transfer is already a fact without Bitcoin. Think Transferwise, but there are others, which takes seconds to arrive, and is cheaper and less risky than crypto

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

 

Which is the main reason why Tesla retracted on their commitment to accept bitcoin.

 

The 1.5 billion USD of Bitcoin they bought, and used to lift their balance sheet for the previous quarter, most likely will also come bite them in the rectum at the end of the current quarter

 

I doubt it. Tesla certainly hedged their bitcoin exposure. You can hedge digital currency perfectly.

 

Most likely what Musk said was true, that he does not want to encourage Bitcoin mining due to climate concerns. Rich people care about public image.