Over to you crypto fanboys

[Logosone]

1 minute ago, Susco said:

 

Instant money transfer is already a fact without Bitcoin. Think Transferwise, but there are others, which takes seconds to arrive, and is cheaper and less risky than crypto

 

But you see there you still depend on external organizations who can change their conditions. 

 

With bitcoin instant transfer is free and only betwen the sender and receiver. It's more attractive.

[Heng]

4 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

Instant money transfer is already a fact without Bitcoin. Think Transferwise, but there are others, which takes seconds to arrive, and is cheaper and less risky than crypto

 

Instant transfer without oversight is the main draw.   As for risk... it's all relative.   If you're a 40 something interThai looking to buy a winter home in Hokkaido, you'd probably stick to SWIFT.   If you're trying to stay under the radar of your local warlord, totalitarian regime, etc., you can't just skip on down to the bank.   

[Susco]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

With bitcoin instant transfer is free

 

Why I don't believe you?

 

I admit that I don't own any crypto, so have never made a transfer, but I have read amny times on this forum that there are fees involved and they are not cheap either.

 

2 minutes ago, Heng said:

Instant transfer without oversight is the main draw.

 

You still believe it is anonymous and untraceable?

[Heng]

1 minute ago, Susco said:

 

Why I don't believe you?

 

I admit that I don't own any crypto, so have never made a transfer, but I have read amny times on this forum that there are fees involved and they are not cheap either.

 

 

You still believe it is anonymous and untraceable?

 

It's not anonymous or untraceable... it's just 'good enough' and more multipurpose.   It's a Swiss Army knife (that also has a semi translucent mode that allows you to pass through customs) and its other benefits compared to a purpose built flathead screwdriver.   

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, Susco said:

 

Why I don't believe you?

 

I admit that I don't own any crypto, so have never made a transfer, but I have read amny times on this forum that there are fees involved and they are not cheap either.

 

 

You still believe it is anonymous and untraceable?

 

Bitcoin is a decentralized network and therefore does not have transaction fees.

 

You can actually create a 0 fee bitcoin transfer. But miners have to pick up the transfer so a little is added to incentive this. This can be as low as 0.00000226 BTC, which is virtually free. It's less than peanuts. Some people put bigger fees, but you can avoid this.

[Heng]

Well, that's where you're wrong IMO.   I've never seen a free BTC transaction.   It's usually a few dollars, but I've also seen $100+ fees as well in times of network congestion to send the same amounts.   

 

Anyone who has been involved with BTC for a long time will tell you NOT to set a low fee (and for sure not zero) or you risk your transaction staying unprocessed for extended periods of time (as in weeks or months). 

[fdsa]

16 minutes ago, Heng said:

Anyone who has been involved with BTC for a long time will tell you NOT to set a low fee (and for sure not zero) or you risk your transaction staying unprocessed for extended periods of time (as in weeks or months). 

the transaction expiration time is 14 days so it can't stay unprocessed for months, also many nodes on the network use much lower expiration time so your transaction is likely to return back in 2-5 days.

Also you could fasten the transaction by creating a new one (with the very same coins) but with a higher fee, it's a "legal double-spend" mechanism: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Replace_by_fee

 

anyway as a long time Bitcoin user I do confirm that it sucks hard in terms of daily usage, you should stick to Litecoin or Stellar instead.

[fdsa]

33 minutes ago, Susco said:

You still believe it is anonymous and untraceable?

google:// why chainalisys hates monero

[fdsa]

51 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

DId Tesla hedge? How?  Did they sell the BTC? If they did, then they were merely a middleman in a customer cashing out his BTC and then paying $ for his Tesla.

this

[Heng]

29 minutes ago, fdsa said:

the transaction expiration time is 14 days so it can't stay unprocessed for months, also many nodes on the network use much lower expiration time so your transaction is likely to return back in 2-5 days.

Also you could fasten the transaction by creating a new one (with the very same coins) but with a higher fee, it's a "legal double-spend" mechanism: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Replace_by_fee

 

anyway as a long time Bitcoin user I do confirm that it sucks hard in terms of daily usage, you should stick to Litecoin or Stellar instead.

 

That's wallet dependent.  There isn't a blanket 14 day expiration built into the blockchain itself.   There have definitely been cases of longer than 2 week dropped transactions, although yes, miners will sometimes just go back later to pick them up just to have the blockchain cleared.  

 

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, Heng said:

Well, that's where you're wrong IMO.   I've never seen a free BTC transaction.   It's usually a few dollars, but I've also seen $100+ fees as well in times of network congestion to send the same amounts.   

 

Anyone who has been involved with BTC for a long time will tell you NOT to set a low fee (and for sure not zero) or you risk your transaction staying unprocessed for extended periods of time (as in weeks or months). 

 

There is a history of free BTC transactions, but due to the large volume now they've become less common. You're right that in April 2021 fees are going up, however, people can still make low fee transfers. As you say, the time period takes longer.

 

"I was able to confirm a tx with a fee of 0.00000226 BTC on the 24 Sep 2017. To do that I was literally watching the mempool and picked a time when it was nearly empty. "

 

https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/62226/why-does-it-cost-money-to-transfer-bitcoin

 

The above is 0.08 USD.

[fdsa]

1 hour ago, Heng said:

That's wallet dependent.  There isn't a blanket 14 day expiration built into the blockchain itself.   There have definitely been cases of longer than 2 week dropped transactions, although yes, miners will sometimes just go back later to pick them up just to have the blockchain cleared.  

there is a configuration parameter "-mempoolexpiry=NN" which defaults to 14 days, many nodes have it much lower, like 3 days (several years old default value), however some nodes may have it set to 0 which means "never expire". I doubt there is any point to have never expiring transactions so the amount of such nodes should be really low.

In my experience I've never had any transactions stuck for more than several days.

[Heng]

5 minutes ago, fdsa said:

there is a configuration parameter "-mempoolexpiry=NN" which defaults to 14 days, many nodes have it much lower, like 3 days (several years old default value), however some nodes may have it set to 0 which means "never expire". I doubt there is any point to have never expiring transactions so the amount of such nodes should be really low.

In my experience I've never had any transactions stuck for more than several days.

 

Me neither.   Although I know I've read early on that transactions didn't have a built in expiration... although given that the protocol isn't set in stone, I understand it may have changed over time.  

[Logosone]

Bitcoin falling today again. What is your guys' take on the price development of BTC in the next few days?

[Heng]

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Bitcoin falling today again. What is your guys' take on the price development of BTC in the next few days?

 

My take is that my btc is in cold storage and I'm not going to worry too much about daily fluctuations.   It's anyone's guess.   Some folks are saying we're going back up, others are saying it's just a bear trap for downward price action.   Everyone is right, even the tulip folks, at one point or the other.   

[The Cipher]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Bitcoin falling today again. What is your guys' take on the price development of BTC in the next few days?

 

Day to day price action is so hard to predict.

 

Best guess is that BTC will be range bound through the next couple of months but could start seeing another meaningful run up later in the summer if headline inflation and input costs continue to come in significantly higher than central bank guidance.

 

Of course meaningful developments between now and then could change that outlook too. (Is this financial advice? No it is not.)

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

Day to day price action is so hard to predict.

 

Best guess is that BTC will be range bound through the next couple of months but could start seeing another meaningful run up later in the summer if headline inflation and input costs continue to come in significantly higher than central bank guidance.

 

Of course meaningful developments between now and then could change that outlook too. (Is this financial advice? No it is not.)

 

Yah, I think that looks about right, looks like the fall is plateuing again and we'll see a bit of range action. After such a big fall it's unlikely an upward trend will come soon. Like my Forex sensei said "After you fall down the stairs you don't run up for a while".

[fdsa]

2 hours ago, Heng said:

Me neither.   Although I know I've read early on that transactions didn't have a built in expiration... although given that the protocol isn't set in stone, I understand it may have changed over time.  

I'm not very good at scripting in Bitcoin language but I believe it is possible to create a transaction that will allow the previous owner (the one who sent the transaction) to get money back at the specific date using the LockTime opcodes:  https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Script#Locktime — in such way if the transaction does not get enough confirmations within some time frame you could send the same money again

anyway by the default it's up to miners to confirm or to reject any given transaction.

 

 

[fdsa]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

Bitcoin falling today again. What is your guys' take on the price development of BTC in the next few days?

I don't know about days range but in few years I'm cashing out at $150k

[Logosone]

13 minutes ago, fdsa said:

I don't know about days range but in few years I'm cashing out at $150k

 

I would not bet against that. I believe BTC/USD will go up again eventually. Just not in the short term.

[Susco]

2 hours ago, Heng said:

 

My take is that my btc is in cold storage and I'm not going to worry too much about daily fluctuations.   It's anyone's guess.   Some folks are saying we're going back up, others are saying it's just a bear trap for downward price action.   Everyone is right, even the tulip folks, at one point or the other.   

 

Charlie Munger said on the last Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, I don't know when, but this is gonna end badly, and anyone with a grain of common sense will have to agree with him.

 

If you look at the stock market, with there SPAC's and meme stocks, there is no reality involved any more.

 

Stocks rise, or fall, by 50 - 100% in a single day, just because someone makes a tweet.

 

In the past stocks were valued based on their balance sheets and forwarded estimates, today they are valued based on one or another cryptic tweet.

[Heng]

3 hours ago, fdsa said:

I'm not very good at scripting in Bitcoin language but I believe it is possible to create a transaction that will allow the previous owner (the one who sent the transaction) to get money back at the specific date using the LockTime opcodes:  https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Script#Locktime — in such way if the transaction does not get enough confirmations within some time frame you could send the same money again

anyway by the default it's up to miners to confirm or to reject any given transaction.

 

 

 

I know even less.   I'm a definite 'end user only' type.  

[Heng]

2 hours ago, Susco said:

 

Charlie Munger said on the last Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, I don't know when, but this is gonna end badly, and anyone with a grain of common sense will have to agree with him.

 

If you look at the stock market, with there SPAC's and meme stocks, there is no reality involved any more.

 

Stocks rise, or fall, by 50 - 100% in a single day, just because someone makes a tweet.

 

In the past stocks were valued based on their balance sheets and forwarded estimates, today they are valued based on one or another cryptic tweet.

 

Both Chuck and Warren are legends in their own time.   They mastered a market, but IMO it doesn't make them wise in all matters of all markets.   It's asking a prodigy like Allan Alcorn to compete in a present day esport Call of Duty tournament.....steady steady, now this time try not to die in 5 seconds.  

[Walker88]

19 hours ago, Logosone said:

 

In the real world it is the imperfect understanding of market participants that moves the market, that's exactly right, and it's what Soros' theory of reflexivity has been saying for a while. That markets do not anticipate the future perfectly, but the exact opposite, that they imperfectly understand the future and their imperfect understanding shapes the future.

 

Now, I don't see why you can't hedge bitcoin like any other currency though.

 

And I think instant money transfer is a HUGE draw for anyone, not just criminals.

 

I also don't think you can create an infinite number of bitcoins.

 

So I don't think bitcoin will disappear. You can't make ideas disappear. And people love this idea.

 

Tell me how to hedge BTC risk?

 

To hedge anything, one needs a liquid market where participants are willing to take the other side. There is no active exchange where BTC risk can be sloughed off. I can hedge currency easily with forwards or even futures, and generally there is another side of the market with an opposite need, which helps with liquidity.  I can hedge equity exposure with options or index futures. I can hedge interest rate risk with swaps or futures. In 2008 I could even hedge housing price risk with CDSs, which were plays on mortgages and the collections of mortgages (mortgage bonds, and eventually CDOs)

 

Tell me how to hedge BTC risk? (I'm a retired hedge fund manager, so quite familiar with hedging vehicles, markets, and the bespoke products IBs created).

 

The two week 50% tumble woke up a lot of people who were previously willing to sell product for BTC. Elon Musk is the most vocal example. No active hedge means a product-for-BTC seller is assuming a lot of risk. Those who have convinced themselves BTC is a rocket ship to the moon might accept the risk and be disabused of that confidence at a later date.

 

Next, tell me what the barrier to entry is that would prevent the conjuring of an infinite number of cryptos (not bitcoins, but cryptos)? Dogecoin was conjured as a joke from nothing; now it has 'value'. First Movers have a slight advantage, provided their creation wasn't full of correctable flaws. The more correctable flaws a crypto has, the easier it is for a newcomer to issue a crypto that corrects those flaws.

 

Take Occam's Razor to crypto uses, and about the only thing remaining is the anonymity sought by terrorists and criminals, including ransomware attackers. Since those are criminal endeavors, expect major attacks on crypto by intel services and regulatory authorities, and some law changes may well include a prohibition on using crypto for commerce. Already major banks are falling back on the 'know your customer' laws and regulations, so any sort of 'cashing' out will become increasingly difficult. Major players may figure a way to get around that (such as using the Hawala system) but small players will be befuddled, and small players are what drove the mania that hit crypto in the last year or so. Disillusion the small player, and it's game over.

[Heng]

For every single "small" player on the planet: there is no legislation that can stop 2 random people from transacting in crypto and making payment in fiat (via non descriptive bank transfer or cash).     

[how241]

Most merchants who accept bitcoin and other coins do Not have to worry or concern themselves with the hourly/daily price gyrations as they usually work with a exchange that immediate converts the price paid to them into whatever currency they like.  The merchant immediately gets paid the full and correct price for his product and it doesn't matter if bitcoin jumps up or down later on.  Exactly the same thing is done millions of times each day when credit cards or banks make transfers or international purchases.  They lock in the proper exchange rate and get paid.  The FX rate or bitcoin price jumping around has no affect on them. The constantly changing rates only affects the purchaser or possibly a merchant if they decided to hold on to the bitcoin in hopes of a better rate later on.  

[fdsa]

> last message more than 24 hours ago

 

is it really over to us crypto fanboys? ????

[Heng]

Not much going on.  My alt portfolio is slightly creeping back out of the red, but still decidedly red and I'm not going to inject fresh cash (yes, inflationary fiat can still feel good earning virtually nothing) into the mix.  

[ukrules]

Patience.....

[Heng]

Absolutely.  Now that's one from Buffett/Munger (not to mention countless others) I do believe in.   Often times it's better to sit around and do nothing when you're invested.