Phuket Sandbox Reopening

[connda]

TAT and the usual cheerleaders have gotten really quiet.  Every day until July 1st we were told in press-release after press-release how wonderful it will be with thousands of tourist roaming Phuket.  Now?  <crickets chirping>

Where's CNN and all the Thai news channels?  No videos of packed beaches and pool parties?  ????

[stevenl]

Nobody has said thousands coming to start with. It started as expected and looking at the very positive social media stories people are very happy.

[bojo]

45 minutes ago, connda said:

Where's CNN and all the Thai news channels?  No videos of packed beaches and pool parties? 

A Brit youtube vlogger was there at the airport, plenty of mainstream press there on first day...........Tourists are a coming cha cha........and they coming for those chirping crickets...............that's half the attraction for the folk who wanna slice of serenity..........................

[impulse]

They didn't get entry requirements ironed out until a couple of days before the opening.  Pretty tough to arrange some vacation time and book an international holiday on 2-3 days' notice.

 

I'm surprised there was anyone at all in the first few days, though that's not an indication that it won't be successful.  Especially if there's favorable reports on social media.  I'd expect things to pick up by August, and they may have a great high season.  Fingers crossed, good for everyone except the grumps who hate tourists.

 

The "soft opening" caused by the delay in posting the rules may have been a good thing.  Gives them a chance to dial in the processes before the crowds show up.  They sure didn't want irate travelers hopping off a plane and standing in 4 hour lines, complete with video.

 

[shdmn]

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

Nobody has said thousands coming to start with. It started as expected and looking at the very positive social media stories people are very happy.

The doom mongers want it to fail so bad they are getting desperate now. Trying to turn it into a conspiracy or whatever.  "OMG, there are no pictures of tourists on beaches.  It all must be fake news!".

[Sharp]

Was on BBC news today. 

[sammieuk1]

Very few airline choices clunky groaning COE and no info of transit through BKK is not helping along with paying upfront non refundable then relying on Thai officialdom whilst juggling times and dates. if you need a new visa like me +10 days as the London embassy wont even except post at the weekend they are that tired from work.????????  

[digibum]

3 hours ago, stevenl said:

Nobody has said thousands coming to start with. It started as expected and looking at the very positive social media stories people are very happy.

Actually, that’s not accurate as even TAT has dialed back their arrival projections.  
 

Also, as a few people have noted, seems more than a few Thai citizens getting off those first arrivals.  
 

So, I’m reality, it does seem a decent percentage of those first arrivals were Thai nationals and expats returning home to avoid ASQ in Bangkok and expats.  
 

Also, on that first flight from the Middle East, it looked like a few folks of farang persuasion were getting off the flight so possibly farangs with wives or girlfriends in Thailand who have been trying to avoid ASQ.  
 

Lastly, there are the two Israelis who have been in a few different photographs that some are reporting as being paid guests here to “sample” the sandbox before promoting it back home.  
 

How much is true and how much is BS?  We’ll never know.  But the first few days have been anemic at best and there’s a good chance that even those low numbers are being propped up with some creative accounting.  
 

There are thousands of hotels in Phuket.  They are surely not going to be able to survive on 10,000 tourists a month.  
 

It’s really a bit of a dog and pony show.  They sold this on helping Phuket get back to normal but even the businesses that have reopened are likely losing money due to their fixed costs being higher than the tourism revenue.  

[digibum]

2 hours ago, shdmn said:

The doom mongers want it to fail so bad they are getting desperate now. Trying to turn it into a conspiracy or whatever.  "OMG, there are no pictures of tourists on beaches.  It all must be fake news!".

Except many of us are here and there’s little difference between pre-July 1 and post-July 1.  

[digibum]

3 hours ago, stevenl said:

Nobody has said thousands coming to start with. It started as expected and looking at the very positive social media stories people are very happy.

Actually TAT did say that.  
 

That’s how you know it’s a failure.  People are now backtracking on the rosey predictions.  
 

In the last week alone, Phuket’s govonor has revised downward the number of expected travelers by 30,000 to only 100,000.  
 

For those not good with math, that’s a 23% downward revision from two weeks ago.   

 

Im actually not rooting for the sandbox to fail but let’s quit pretending like TAT and the Phuket government weren’t making some outlandish claims weeks and months ago.  
 

That’s how they sold this whole thing.  They fabricated a bunch of numbers and then fumbled the COEs, changed the rules, and decided to keep all of the bars (i.e most of Bangla Road) closed.  
 

If you haven’t been to Bangla Road it’s downright depressing.  Even the 7-11s and Family Marts in the area were closed up until a few days ago (I haven’t checked since July 1).  
 

Can you imagine going to Patong and having to walk 1.5 miles to find an open 7-11?  
 

Jungceylon is mostly closed.  
 

Kata and Karon are nearly ghost towns.  
 

Literally, a restaurant in Kata posted on Facebook yesterday in an expat group something like, “Yes, it’s pretty dark in Kata but we’re still open.” 
 

 

[shdmn]

36 minutes ago, digibum said:

Except many of us are here and there’s little difference between pre-July 1 and post-July 1.  

The difference is that Phuket is opened now.  It's only the 1st week. As you know (?) it's low season there right now. Anyone trying to spin this as a failure already has no credibility and is not worth listening to.

 

 

[digibum]

1 minute ago, shdmn said:

The difference is that Phuket is opened now.  It's only the 1st week and as you know (?) it's ultra low season there right now. Anyone trying to spin this as a failure already is obviously cheerleading for that and not worth listening to.

 

 

I’ll be sure to pass your thoughts on to the governor of Phuket that revised arrivals down 23% in the last week.   
 

But, you probably know more than him.  
 

I love people that say, but it’s only the first flight, the first day, the first week, as if the projections for these periods didn’t exist and we can’t all go back through old news stories and read.  
 

To me there seem to be three camps of people in regards to the sandbox:

 

The eternal optimists that take any number and try to spin it as a success.  
 

The eternal pessimists that won’t be satisfied until 100,000 tourists are arriving daily.  
 

The rest of us who base success or failure based on what the projections were when TAT and the Phuket government tried to sell this calculated risk to everyone.  

[stevenl]

46 minutes ago, digibum said:

Actually, that’s not accurate as even TAT has dialed back their arrival projections.  
 

Also, as a few people have noted, seems more than a few Thai citizens getting off those first arrivals.  
 

So, I’m reality, it does seem a decent percentage of those first arrivals were Thai nationals and expats returning home to avoid ASQ in Bangkok and expats.  
 

Also, on that first flight from the Middle East, it looked like a few folks of farang persuasion were getting off the flight so possibly farangs with wives or girlfriends in Thailand who have been trying to avoid ASQ.  
 

Lastly, there are the two Israelis who have been in a few different photographs that some are reporting as being paid guests here to “sample” the sandbox before promoting it back home.  
 

How much is true and how much is BS?  We’ll never know.  But the first few days have been anemic at best and there’s a good chance that even those low numbers are being propped up with some creative accounting.  
 

There are thousands of hotels in Phuket.  They are surely not going to be able to survive on 10,000 tourists a month.  
 

It’s really a bit of a dog and pony show.  They sold this on helping Phuket get back to normal but even the businesses that have reopened are likely losing money due to their fixed costs being higher than the tourism revenue.  

You quote me to disagree, and come up with no arguments in disagreement. 

Nice try.

[stevenl]

29 minutes ago, digibum said:

Actually TAT did say that.  
 

That’s how you know it’s a failure.  People are now backtracking on the rosey predictions.  
 

In the last week alone, Phuket’s govonor has revised downward the number of expected travelers by 30,000 to only 100,000.  
 

For those not good with math, that’s a 23% downward revision from two weeks ago.   

 

Im actually not rooting for the sandbox to fail but let’s quit pretending like TAT and the Phuket government weren’t making some outlandish claims weeks and months ago.  
 

That’s how they sold this whole thing.  They fabricated a bunch of numbers and then fumbled the COEs, changed the rules, and decided to keep all of the bars (i.e most of Bangla Road) closed.  
 

If you haven’t been to Bangla Road it’s downright depressing.  Even the 7-11s and Family Marts in the area were closed up until a few days ago (I haven’t checked since July 1).  
 

Can you imagine going to Patong and having to walk 1.5 miles to find an open 7-11?  
 

Jungceylon is mostly closed.  
 

Kata and Karon are nearly ghost towns.  
 

Literally, a restaurant in Kata posted on Facebook yesterday in an expat group something like, “Yes, it’s pretty dark in Kata but we’re still open.” 
 

 

Please show where TAT, or anyone else, actually said thousands were coming on day 1.

[digibum]

2 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Please show where TAT, or anyone else, actually said thousands were coming on day 1.

Not sure if I’m able to quote the source on TVF (now ASEAN Now forums) but you can try googling “TAT revises down Phuket Sandbox arrivals, estimated revenue” 

[Airalee]

I was reading something about 12,000 hotel nights booked (over 12 days)…so, roughly 1000 rooms.  
 

Seeing that Phuket had 84,700 rooms as of 2018* that would put occupancy rates at approximately 1.2%.  

 

One point two percent.  

 

Better not break out the champagne just yet.

 

*source…. https://www.hvs.com/article/8714-HVS-Market-Pulse-Phuket-Thailand

[irishman25]

3 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Very few airline choices clunky groaning COE and no info of transit through BKK is not helping along with paying upfront non refundable then relying on Thai officialdom whilst juggling times and dates. if you need a new visa like me +10 days as the London embassy wont even except post at the weekend they are that tired from work.????????  

i can see that some of the Airlines flying to Phuket will stop going there are not even making money a big LOSE same on the BKK run why have to of your flights loosing money makes NO sense

[RichardColeman]

Some posted on twitter 3/7/21:

 

==============

First arrivals were on three THAI flights from Copenhagen, Frankfurt and Paris. Total 158 passengers, 122 of whom disembarked in Phuket, the rest went on to Bangkok.

==============

 

 

3 flights from Europe and 50 people on each plane, and 40 tourists on each to Phuket ? Airlines will go broke or stop flying at that rate. Unless the government is bankrolling these flights

 

 

[DrDave]

I suspect that the majority of foreign arrivals are not tourists (in the true sense of the word), but rather people who wanted or needed to return to their job/family/home in Thailand.

 

With that said, it really makes no difference from the perspective of local businesses such as hotels, restaurants and tour companies because these people will be supporting local businesses by staying in a hotel, eating in restaurants and looking for recreational activities just like tourists for the 14 days they'll be confined in Phuket.

[impulse]

2 hours ago, DrDave said:

I suspect that the majority of foreign arrivals are not tourists (in the true sense of the word), but rather people who wanted or needed to return to their job/family/home in Thailand.

 

That only makes sense because if they weren't planning on coming already, there's no way they could have gotten their documents arranged and a flight in the time since the embassies finally announced all the requirements about a week ago... just a few days before the opening. 

 

I think they need to see what happens in a few weeks when genuine tourists have time to arrange the formalities, and next month after social media shows people enjoying themselves.

 

To that other guy...  It's funny how projections are only taken seriously when they agree with a pre-conceived narrative.  The reality is that nobody has a clue how it will go.  It may peter out, or it may go viral with tourist numbers exploding, or it may get shut down because they're letting so many Thai people go back and forth under less restrictive Covid measures. 

 

In any case, it's way too early to stick a fork in it.

 

[zzzzz]

who cares if they are real "tourists" or not ( i wish everyone would stop using the word "tourists")
they are arrivals to phuket to'

 

1,. see if admitting people fully vacced up is safe an Thailand can open other areas in mind with a full oct 1st opening of the country

2. stimulate the dead economy on the island in the beach areas ( phuket town is ok) 

3. soft opening for all the resorts/hotels that have been closed for over a year

 

Give it a rest all the negative bs, One has to start somewhere....

[digibum]

14 minutes ago, zzzzz said:

who cares if they are real "tourists" or not ( i wish everyone would stop using the word "tourists")
they are arrivals to phuket to'

 

1,. see if admitting people fully vacced up is safe an Thailand can open other areas in mind with a full oct 1st opening of the country

2. stimulate the dead economy on the island in the beach areas ( phuket town is ok) 

3. soft opening for all the resorts/hotels that have been closed for over a year

 

Give it a rest all the negative bs, One has to start somewhere....

Yes and no.  A real tourist spends money differently than an expat or Thai citizen who is flying through Phuket to get home.  
 

For instance, a real tourist wants to see shows and rent jet skis and hang out on Bangla Road.  
 

An expat trying to get to see their family might knows a lot of the stuff tourists like to do are tourists traps and avoids them while they do their 14 days on island.  
 

Second, just because people aren’t singing the praises of the sandbox doesn’t mean they’re being negative.  Admittedly, some are but keep in mind how much utter BS TAT and Phuket have been spouting about the sandbox for months.  
 

Pointing out that, so far, things haven’t been living up to the hype is not being negative.  It’s acknowledging reality.  
 

As much as their are people who like to take a dump on any positive news in Thailand, there are also people that like to pretend that everything is wonderful even when things are objectively bad.  
 

Ultimately, TAT and Phuket authorities decided to risk the personal health of all of the people on the island in an attempt to jump start the local economy.  
 

It’s not unfair to hold them to the lofty projections that they used to sell this gamble to the public.  
 

It’s also not unfair to point out the bumbling, miscommunication, and other logistical and bureaucratic failures on the part of TAT and Phuket authorities which may have caused a low number of arrivals.  
 

Remember, they’re gambling with people’s lives.  If they screw up administrating this thing it could lead to a Bangkok-level outbreak on the island and kill tourism for another 12-24 months.  
 

I’ll be one of the first offering accolades if they pull this off but not everyone is being a jerk because they’re holding TAT and Phuket authorities accountable for all of the promises they made. 

[DrDave]

I think July arrivals will be mostly returning Thais and expats, while August may see a mix skewed more toward tourist arrivals. While both demographics will help the local economy, @digibum makes a good case for different spending patterns and amounts.  At some point, the majority of Thais and expats will have already returned, leaving Phuket dependent upon tourists again.

 

What TAT has misjudged is the willingness of foreign tourists to jump through hoops in order to spend their vacation in Phuket.  Thais and expats have no choice, but tourists have a choice where to spend their vacation, and it seems that TAT is blind to the fact that there are destinations with beaches just as good, if not better those in Phuket that don't require the hassle and uncertainty of consular permission, restricted hotels, expensive in-country Covid testing and mask mandates.

 

If the government could eliminate the CoE, in-country Covid testing and mask mandates so that Phuket would me more inline with the other vacation destination choices tourists have available, I think they'd see a considerable spike in tourist arrivals. Hopefully, that'll happen sometime before October 1st.

 

[pagallim]

30 minutes ago, digibum said:

Yes and no.  A real tourist spends money differently than an expat or Thai citizen who is flying through Phuket to get home.  
 

For instance, a real tourist wants to see shows and rent jet skis and hang out on Bangla Road.  
 

An expat trying to get to see their family might knows a lot of the stuff tourists like to do are tourists traps and avoids them while they do their 14 days on island.  
 

Second, just because people aren’t singing the praises of the sandbox doesn’t mean they’re being negative.  Admittedly, some are but keep in mind how much utter BS TAT and Phuket have been spouting about the sandbox for months.  
 

Pointing out that, so far, things haven’t been living up to the hype is not being negative.  It’s acknowledging reality.  
 

As much as their are people who like to take a dump on any positive news in Thailand, there are also people that like to pretend that everything is wonderful even when things are objectively bad.  
 

Ultimately, TAT and Phuket authorities decided to risk the personal health of all of the people on the island in an attempt to jump start the local economy.  
 

It’s not unfair to hold them to the lofty projections that they used to sell this gamble to the public.  
 

It’s also not unfair to point out the bumbling, miscommunication, and other logistical and bureaucratic failures on the part of TAT and Phuket authorities which may have caused a low number of arrivals.  
 

Remember, they’re gambling with people’s lives.  If they screw up administrating this thing it could lead to a Bangkok-level outbreak on the island and kill tourism for another 12-24 months.  
 

I’ll be one of the first offering accolades if they pull this off but not everyone is being a jerk because they’re holding TAT and Phuket authorities accountable for all of the promises they made. 

 

You are not wrong.   Most businesses haven't got enthusiastic about the Sandbox, as common sense dictates that given the global situation and worsening scenario within Thailand, the previous 'normality' is on the very far distant horizon.   That's why most businesses remain closed, even those who have been permitted to re-open.   Some owners have just walked away from their leases and eaten the loss, and these will never re-appear in their previous state.   It remains the case that businesses currently operating are doing so because of the patronage of local Thais and Expats.

 

Next up of course is the Surat Thani islands (Samui, Phangnan and Tao) re-opening supposedly on the 15th of this month.   No confirmation that this is actually going to happy, and what the arrival logistcs criteria is going to be.

[digibum]

1 minute ago, pagallim said:

Most businesses haven't got enthusiastic about the Sandbox

This is so true.  I have heard very few business owners in Phuket that are excited by the reopening.  
 

The people I see that are the most excited on social media are:

 

1.  People that want to come to Thailand, but more as an aspiration than in actual planning. Like people who are like, “Hope the sandbox goes well, planning on coming in December” 

 

2.  The perpetually optimistic.  Like the people who never have a bad thing to say about Thailand.  They often know few, if any, details about the sandbox but since it sounds like a positive development they are wholeheartedly in support of it.  
 

3.   Expats and other long-termers that think the sandbox is a great loophole and they can avoid ASQ.  Especially people that have been planning on a quick trip back to their home country to get vaccinated and now can get back into Thailand easier.  
 

4.  People pretending to be tourists but are already planning on getting their tourist visa extensions before they even get their COE.  For instance, just yesterday saw someone that arrived on the 3rd and was asking about ED visas, hoping to find an online school so they could travel around Thailand.   IMHO, this person is just another digital nomad type who had to go back to their home country because of Covid and needed to escape back to a low cost of living country ASAP.  
 

5.  People that claim to have the best interests of the local Thai people and Thai businesses at heart.   Not that I doubt their sincerity but they seem to think that if they know some noodle lady who is broke because no tourists, the best thing to do is to mindlessly support any crazy idea TAT has and attack anybody that raises any questions in regards to whether TAT is pulling numbers out of its butt.  

[stevenl]

8 hours ago, digibum said:

Not sure if I’m able to quote the source on TVF (now ASEAN Now forums) but you can try googling “TAT revises down Phuket Sandbox arrivals, estimated revenue” 

They didn't give high expectations for the beginning of the sandbox, and that's what we're talking about.

[stevenl]

1 hour ago, digibum said:

Pointing out that, so far, things haven’t been living up to the hype is not being negative.  It’s acknowledging reality.  

 

It’s also not unfair to point out the bumbling, miscommunication, and other logistical and bureaucratic failures on the part of TAT and Phuket authorities which may have caused a low number of arrivals.  

There has never been a hype, it was always meant to be a slow start, a trial. Only in the mind of posters here were huge numbers announced for the start of the program, there were not.

 

Yes, authorities have screwed up the start, all the more surprising there were 300+ arrivals on day 1.

[Jonathan Fairfield]

There might be thousands of tourists eventually but not in the first week.

 

There have only been about six flights each bringing 300 passengers per flight.

 

Give it a month or two before you start to see any noticeable difference I would guess.

[digibum]

4 hours ago, stevenl said:

There has never been a hype, it was always meant to be a slow start, a trial. Only in the mind of posters here were huge numbers announced for the start of the program, there were not.

 

Yes, authorities have screwed up the start, all the more surprising there were 300+ arrivals on day 1.

No hype?  LOL.  Ok.  
 

Hype is what TAT does.  

[zzzzz]

1 hour ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

There might be thousands of tourists eventually but not in the first week.

 

There have only been about six flights each bringing 300 passengers per flight.

 

Give it a month or two before you start to see any noticeable difference I would guess.

4th July, 481 international travelers arrived on six flights bringing the total since 1st July to 1,755. On arrival, 1,626 tested negative with 129 waiting for results. 90,861 room nights have been booked in SHA+ hotels up until September