33 minutes ago, peter48 said:

Thailand must learn from other advanced nations.

Hah, come on, they know exactly what needs to be done.  They just have zero incentive to do it

 

People were smart enough to know the importance of abundant and varied vaccines, but chose the path that was potentially the most lucrative

 

People knew back in late March how the highly contagious Alpha-variant cluster started and how to prevent the spread, but chose self-preservation over protecting the city/country

 

People knew how dangerous it would be to allow Songkran travel while this ultra-contagious variant had over a week to spread unfettered through BKK, but "whatever will be will be" (i.e. allowing travel took the spotlight off and made certain industries and other people very happy)

 

People knew how crucial a REAL lockdown would've been back in April , and ESPECIALLY now while Delta destroys the country, but instead, scapegoats were made of migrant work camps yet again while other restrictions had been loosened, all for the sake of saving the Phuket sandbox that won't truly do anything to help the decimated economy (decimated thanks to the previous three points)

 

And finally people knew/know how important it was/is to allow private hospitals (or even public ones) to import other vaccines that were not only successful in stopping the worse variants, but to supplement the fact that the HOME-PRODUCED ASTRAZENECA VACCINES ARE BARELY EVEN AVAILABLE while the Sinovac ones are absolutely worthless, but apparently it's better for the country to suffer the deaths of citizens, the economy, and the country itself than to lose face over the fact that literally every previous decision made has been insanely wrong, and egregiously wrong (while paid for) at the time they were made.

 

 

Sorry, the TLDR version: There's to be no learning from other countries because 1) people already know what needs to be done to save the country but 2) they just don't care to actually do it

13 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Once again, you're focusing on the wrong thing. The question to ask is what would have been the number if those doctors hadn't been vaccinated at all?

As I've repeatedly noted, virtually all the other vaccines available are better. That doesn't make Sinovac crappy.

And these are health care workers. The group at the highest risk for contracting Covid.

 

 

You raise an interesting question vis a vis sinovac compared to other vaccines.

 

start at the beginning. sinovac is better than nothing. So it’s reasonable to assume more would have contracted the virus and died had they been given nothing. That’s point one.

 

next, should the authorities have got a higher quality vaccine in terms of efficacy. Yes of course, but for whatever reason, they didn’t. That’s point two.

 But the next issue is the one that interests me. Now that they are where they are (2 doses of sinovac, delta infections, cases of vaccinated doctors rising, is it now possible to boost with additional doses of different vaccines?

 

I’m interested because in the eventuality that I actually get offered a vaccine in Thailand, it maybe sinovac. So do I take it so as to get some protection now, with the eventual aim of getting another vaccine later?

 

If I do that, the issue for me is, what does a double dose of vaccine do to my body? We aren’t talking tried and tested here, it’s all fairly experimental.

 

I’m not expecting an answer and I’m sure people will differ in their opinions, I’m just offering up the issue of just how many different vaccines can you pump into your body within, say, one year? 
 

I’m veering toward taking whatever I might eventually get offered now, then Pfizer/Moderna if it becomes available next year. Still, at the back of my mind  there’s a niggle about such a cocktail inside of me. Just taking sinovac now and nothing later is expedient, but  a temporary solution really in my mind.   Variants  have already overtaken that vaccine in my view.

 

anyway, there is no right answer and it is each to their own.

 

17 minutes ago, ABCbangkok said:

That’s your question not mine. I posted about the Thai govt choosing something they shouldn’t have chosen, and being unwilling to allow other vaccines in.

 

You’ve been defending the Chinese vaccine, Sinovac.. Rah rah for you that Sinovac isn’t crappy. You are welcome to it. I left Thailand because quite frankly it’s not good enough for me and my family. 

Apparently you suffer some kind of word blindness. I have repeatedly said that the other vaccines available are superior to Sinovac. But that doesn't make Sinovac crappy. It still provides powerful protection against getting ill. It's not very useful in stopping transmission. But if that's all there is, you should take it. Good for you that you went elsewhere. For various reasons, lots of us aren't. Maybe the WHO will adopt as its new standard for vaccine effectiveness "ABCbangkok went elsewhere". Until then, I don't think your personal life is going to be much taken into account by epidemiologists.

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

You raise an interesting question vis a vis sinovac compared to other vaccines.

 

start at the beginning. sinovac is better than nothing. So it’s reasonable to assume more would have contracted the virus and died had they been given nothing. That’s point one.

 

next, should the authorities have got a higher quality vaccine in terms of efficacy. Yes of course, but for whatever reason, they didn’t. That’s point two.

 But the next issue is the one that interests me. Now that they are where they are (2 doses of sinovac, delta infections, cases of vaccinated doctors rising, is it now possible to boost with additional doses of different vaccines?

 

I’m interested because in the eventuality that I actually get offered a vaccine in Thailand, it maybe sinovac. So do I take it so as to get some protection now, with the eventual aim of getting another vaccine later?

 

If I do that, the issue for me is, what does a double dose of vaccine do to my body? We aren’t talking tried and tested here, it’s all fairly experimental.

 

I’m not expecting an answer and I’m sure people will differ in their opinions, I’m just offering up the issue of just how many different vaccines can you pump into your body within, say, one year? 
 

I’m veering toward taking whatever I might eventually get offered now, then Pfizer/Moderna if it becomes available next year. Still, at the back of my mind  there’s a niggle about such a cocktail inside of me. Just taking sinovac now and nothing later is expedient, but  a temporary solution really in my mind.   Variants  have already overtaken that vaccine in my view.

 

anyway, there is no right answer and it is each to their own.

 

Actually, epidemiologically speaking, there is a right answer but it's not quite as certain as some would like it. That said, so far, mixing of vaccinations seems to work very well according to studies.

45 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Statistics showing new cases in Phuket since the start of the #PhuketSandbox on 1st July. There have been 15 new local cases in the last four days and zero imported cases. At the moment, there are 48 people in hospitals #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1411926666717253637

 

This twitter is blocked

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

This twitter is blocked

No, not where I'm sitting.

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Actually, epidemiologically speaking, there is a right answer but it's not quite as certain as some would like it. That said, so far, mixing of vaccinations seems to work very well according to studies.

I’ve read about mixing one shot of a vaccine with one shot of another. Angela Merkal had one each of AZ and Moderna I believe.

 

even that has only had the most basic of research and testing done, I mean 3-6 months worth, but in any case  it’s not what I am talking about.

 

I am referring to a double dose of sinovac, followed by a double dose of Pfizer/Moderna. I haven’t seen anything on that, happy to read about it if you have a link.

 

In other words, if I take sinovac now in the knowledge that it’s not as good protection as I want, is it medically advisable to pump a double dose of another vaccine into my body a short while down the road. That is my, not dilemma, that’s too strong a phrase, but it’s something that niggles at me.

23 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I only alluded to good news yesterday in the sense that 3,000 available beds is better than 0 available beds, which was the scuttlebutt yesterday. 

Forget that beds already or go one, they dont have enough PERIOD.

30 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

I wonder when the UK will move Thailand to 'Red'?

 

Dr John - a UK GP Youtuber with a million followers did a special report on Thailand COVID situation last week.

 

(Written in bold font so other people my age can read the 'new' ASEAN font)

I saw that and it wasn't very good. Missed a lot of what the situation here actually is.

33 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Of the 113 monitored clusters in Bangkok, 100 have reported cases in the past 14 days including 36 in worker camps & working sites, 29 at businesses & factories, 21 around markets & shopping centres, 10 at residential areas, 2 at care homes and 2 others.

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1411931085651415044

 

Wasn't that long ago there were only a few clusters.

37 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

So 70% of the elderly and those who are medically vulnerable...residing in Bangkok metropolitan area will be administered innoculations and vaccinations within 2 weeks from now. While the vaccines to the high risk groups nationwide will be targeted for August.  And the reason is, Bangkok still continues to be the focus of the new Delta strain infections...

 

Re the quote above from the Thai government spokeswoman today:

 

FWIW, according to some MoPH statements in the past couple days, only about 11-12% of the elderly in the BKK area have received their first vaccine shot thus far, and less than 1% have received their second dose.

 

So the Thai government will have a long way to go to get to 70% for the elderly in the BKK region in two weeks -- even if they probably mean in reality that they're talking about 70% getting just their first shot, as opposed to 70% being fully vaccinated...

 

They're likely following the Phuket model -- "vaccinated" in Thailand now means people who have gotten just their first shot, since that now qualifies as having been "vaccinated."  The second shot, ehhh.... let's not worry about that....

 

 

13 minutes ago, 2 is 1 said:

You cant pull R0 number from hat like rabbit!Nobody cant count Thailands R0 number. And definetly it cant use like that.

It wasn't pulled from hat Hoss. Here is R0 calculation for you and swimfan: From data points. 3232(R0)^5.66 =78034 . Then 5.66 logR0 = log 24 Then the log R0 = 1.38/5.66 = .2438 ,Therefore the R0 = 10^.2438 is 1.75. And with that R0 see: estimation methods onto simple model equation.That is: n(t) = n(0) R0^6. So 1.75^6 = 28.7 x 3232 = 92832.         For your edification n(t) are cases on day 18. n(O) are new cases on June 19.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

29 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I only alluded to good news yesterday in the sense that 3,000 available beds is better than 0 available beds, which was the scuttlebutt yesterday. 

You still dont get it. There are no beds until beds are vaccated and as long as there are more needing to go in than are coming out it's a problem. Of course this becomes a real problem in critical care and ICU where recovery takes longer. 

10 minutes ago, anchadian said:

No, not where I'm sitting.

Something went wrong. Try reloading.

Retry

 

Falling short of their stated goal on the vaccines front, day after day, falling further behind. Now up to needing to do 528,000+ vaccinations per day, every day, for the rest of the year to meet their year end goal of fully vaccinating 70% of the population, i.e., 100 million total doses. They've never done 500,000+ doses in a single day thus far.

 

"Thailand's Vaccine Tracker (July 5, 2021)
..
Thailand saw a dip in vaccination numbers over the weekend. The past four weekends have seen lower inoculation numbers than on the weekdays.
.
About 4.49% of the population is fully vaccinated. 7,804,654 (+83,504) have received the 1st dose, while 2,973,094 (+23,347) have been fully inoculated. At this rate, Thailand needs to administer 528,591 doses per day within 181 days to reach the herd immunity target by the year's end."

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/KhaosodEnglish/posts/4474514615900769

 

Thai netizens are pushing for vaccination of medical personnel with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, following the online circulation of a leaked internal government document, stating that Thailand will receive 1.5 million doses of Pfizer vaccine later this month and next month, with expert opinion against using the vaccine for a third “booster” shot for medical personnel, as it would mean that they’re admitting that the Sinovac vaccine, currently used, is not sufficiently efficacious.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-netizens-push-for-inoculation-of-medics-with-pfizer-following-leaked-document-on-vaccine/

31 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

That doesn't make sense. 113 monitored clusters have had less than 1 case over the last 2 weeks? 

 

That's an implied positivity rate of close to zero. 

 

 

Maybe because they quit testing in the known clusters as they locked them inside with the bubble and seal tactic, but then I could be wrong.

19 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

This twitter is blocked

It is open, here is a cut and paste of the tweet

14 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Re the quote above from the Thai government spokeswoman today:

 

FWIW, according to some MoPH statements in the past couple days, only about 11-12% of the elderly in the BKK area have received their first vaccine shot thus far, and less than 1% have received their second dose.

 

So the Thai government will have a long way to go to get to 70% for the elderly in the BKK region in two weeks -- even if they probably mean in reality that they're talking about 70% getting just their first shot, as opposed to 70% being fully vaccinated...

 

They're likely following the Phuket model -- "vaccinated" in Thailand now means people who have gotten just their first shot, since that now qualifies as having been "vaccinated."  The second shot, ehhh.... let's not worry about that....

 

 

Nonsensical isn’t it. I wonder if they checked what the vaccine supply is likely to be?

 

for sure they are only talking one shot, no way someone can have two shots in two weeks.

 

Surin Director of Commerce is #COVID19 positive after having been to the #PhuketSandbox opening event where he took a selfie with PM Prayut.

https://twitter.com/EvieNHKWORLD/status/1411944395075506177

 

11 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Maybe because they quit testing in the known clusters as they locked them inside with the bubble and seal tactic, but then I could be wrong.

Not much point testing inside a bubble and seal. Infected and non infected mixed together eventually equals pretty much all infected.
Testing not required to know that.

 

just monitor for who keels over with severe symptoms and cart them away to……..I dunno, Hospitals are full.

16 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

You still dont get it. There are no beds until beds are vaccated and as long as there are more needing to go in than are coming out it's a problem. Of course this becomes a real problem in critical care and ICU where recovery takes longer. 

He doesn’t see it. All he sees is 3k people leaving hospital, so there’s 3k available beds. It’s a single line train track.

24 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I saw that and it wasn't very good. Missed a lot of what the situation here actually is.

Yes .... the 'Guest Speaker' from Thailand was not very well informed ..... he just quoted official news with no real insights.  Not surprising as an ex-pat school teacher is not really in a position to give a real situation update.

 

But the part by Dr John covering the figures and vaccination rates will be useful news to some people.

18 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

You still dont get it. There are no beds until beds are vaccated and as long as there are more needing to go in than are coming out it's a problem. Of course this becomes a real problem in critical care and ICU where recovery takes longer. 

With 3000 beds being emptied each day they will be dismantling the field hospitals shortly because they'll be totally empty.

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Not much point testing inside a bubble and seal. Infected and non infected mixed together eventually equals pretty much all infected.
Testing not required to know that.

 

just monitor for who keels over with severe symptoms and cart them away to……..I dunno, Hospitals are full.

The local temple I have mentioned before is still getting daily delivery of bodies in biosecure ambulances from BKK for cremation where PPE is worn by monks doing the religious thing and doing it quick. This is why I would like to see a breakdown of deaths into nationalities.

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

The local temple I have mentioned before is still getting daily delivery of bodies in biosecure ambulances from BKK for cremation where PPE is worn by monks doing the religious thing and doing it quick. This is why I would like to see a breakdown of deaths into nationalities.

Wouldn't we all. The nearest we get is number by foreigner.

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Government spokeswoman says, in a televised news briefing, that the tide of new COVID cases has been rising outside of the Bangkok region as well because of the rise of the Delta/India variant of the virus, and called for the public to avoid all non-essential inter-provincial travel.

 

She's right. Interesting to look as the daily case counts for Thailand's 67 outlying provinces during the past week. The 67 provinces EXCLUDE Bangkok, its 5 adjoining metro provinces, and four southern provinces with higher case numbers.

 

For those other 67 provinces, daily new COVID cases:

 

June 29 -- 1,459

June 30 -- 1,222

July 1 -- 1,367

July 2 -- 1,438

July 3 -- 1,737

July 4 -- 1,912

July 5 -- 2,181

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos

 

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

With 3000 beds being emptied each day they will be dismantling the field hospitals shortly because they'll be totally empty.

Seems like provinces are scrambling to build them.

35 minutes ago, morrobay said:

It wasn't pulled from hat Hoss. Here is R0 calculation for you and swimfan: From data points. 3232(R0)^5.66 =78034 . Then 5.66 logR0 = log 24 Then the log R0 = 1.38/5.66 = .2438 ,Therefore the R0 = 10^.2438 is 1.75. And with that R0 see: estimation methods onto simple model equation.That is: n(t) = n(0) R0^6. So 1.75^6 = 28.7 x 3232 = 92832.         For your edification n(t) are cases on day 18. n(O) are new cases on June 19.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

But it was pulled from dubious data. Does garbage in garbage out ring any bells for you?

1 hour ago, anchadian said:

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10158123106767050

Yesterday I counted six provinces in the Northeast section still in single digits today only 2 and Ubon Ratchathani, Nakhon Ratchasima and Mukdahan have almost doubled since yesterday.Yasothon up to 15.The mum of the woman managing the village shop sometimes is now wearing a mask!