10,000 cases per day by year’s end not out of the question, senior doctor says

[hugocnx]

1 hour ago, Moonlover said:

Nope! In my 'brave new world', get rid of the masks and spread this virus around as quickly as we can. That way we march bravely forward toward herd immunity.

 

Warn the the old and vulnerable of course, protect them and vaccinate them as soon as we can. But enough is enough!

 

We have cowardly and naïvely hidden behind the elusive parapets of 'lock downs' and 'social distancing' for far too long. It's time to get back to 'old normal'. 

Can't really make up if your reply was serious or ironic or both. For this moment I'll take a guess and it is serious. 

[kennw]

9 hours ago, RandolphGB said:

Another reason to open up soon and learn to live with cases. 

 

 

For your sake I hope you will be one of those that lives

[Moonlover]

2 minutes ago, hugocnx said:

Can't really make up if your reply was serious or ironic or both. For this moment I'll take a guess and it is serious. 

Your guess is right, I don't do irony, I've been saying this right from the early days last year. 

[Bluespunk]

20 minutes ago, teacherofwoe said:

The number of test determines the number of cases. Zero tests will result in zero cases. The number of cases determines the number of deaths. Zero cases will result in zero deaths. Search for all excess mortality globally for the last year and a half and apply that to the number of tests and cases. Tests = cases = deaths.

Number of tests does not determine the number of cases, it determines the number of cases found.
 

Therefore if enough tests are not being carried out, there could be many more of the population who have Covid and we wouldn’t know about it. 
 

That means it wouldn’t take 19 years to infect the population, which is how long you said it would take.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Bluespunk
Grammar

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

Oh it's a cold now, ROFLMAO!!!

 

Anyways...

It seems a few people have left turds in the sandbox.  The sand is contaminated.  

You are right it appears that the brain eating amoebas have been unleashed from inside of the sandbox 

[metisdead]

Some conspiracy troll posts and the replies have been removed.

 

A post using trolling images has been removed. 

[retsdon]

3 hours ago, internationalism said:

somehow in thailand there is not much long term covid, and not so many deaths in comparison to scale of infection

1. More like not so much follow up medical care rather. 2. Just wait...

[Maha Sarakham]

6 hours ago, malibukid said:

kiss the tourist season goodbye if this happens.

 

I honestly believe we're on track for a high season in 2022 at this point.  2021 is just going to be a trickle of whoever wants to play all these sandbox games.

[EricTh]

Thailand put  a lockdown when the cases were mild last year during the first and second waves but when the number of cases were high, it didn't put a lockdown..

 

It goes to show the competency level of the government.

[Jonathan Swift]

12 hours ago, Excel said:

Frankly I am surprised he was suggesting 10,000 cases per day by years end. Given the transmissibility of the Delta strain, then as witnessed in India, UK etc I would have thought 10,000 cases per day by end of September would be nearer the mark. However we will never know the true numbers given the extent and organised corrupt reporting mechanisms put in place by this appalling administration.

Says Dr. Excel, noted epidemiologist and pandemic expert. 

[Bkk Brian]

You missed a few underlying conditions that make you at risk from serious covid symptoms.

 

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)

Lung cancer

Cystic fibrosis

Pulmonary fibrosis

Moderate to severe asthma

Cardiomyopathy

Pulmonary hypertension

Congenital heart disease

Heart failure

Coronary artery disease

Organ transplants

Cancer treatments

Bone marrow transplant

HIV/AIDS

Long-term use of prednisone or similar drugs that weaken your immune system

Chronic kidney or liver disease

Down syndrome

 

Perhaps it should also be mentioned of those who suffer long covid or those who remain on ventilation for weeks in ICU, if there's an ICU available that is as they are full along with critical care beds with doctors having to decide who will live and who will die due to lack of facilties.

 

 

[Mike k]

12 hours ago, Excel said:

Frankly I am surprised he was suggesting 10,000 cases per day by years end. Given the transmissibility of the Delta strain, then as witnessed in India, UK etc I would have thought 10,000 cases per day by end of September would be nearer the mark. However we will never know the true numbers given the extent and organised corrupt reporting mechanisms put in place by this appalling administration.

Plus the lack of actual testing 

[The Cipher]

This same debate happens on here daily.

 

Ultimately it comes down to the fact that some of us are willing to tolerate a transitory period of structurally higher death rates and a (generally) slightly higher level of day to day risk in order to live higher quality lives. Data in the macro supports that this is a realistic outcome.

 

Others here have a lower tolerance for risk and/or suffering and find the former paragraph completely unacceptable. That's fine. After this many days I just don't see how anyone's mind will be changed if it hasn't been already.

[spermwhale]

13 hours ago, Excel said:

Frankly I am surprised he was suggesting 10,000 cases per day by years end. Given the transmissibility of the Delta strain, then as witnessed in India, UK etc I would have thought 10,000 cases per day by end of September would be nearer the mark. However we will never know the true numbers given the extent and organised corrupt reporting mechanisms put in place by this appalling administration.

Based on exponential growth it should be happening by the end of this month.

[irishman25]

13 hours ago, Excel said:

Frankly I am surprised he was suggesting 10,000 cases per day by years end. Given the transmissibility of the Delta strain, then as witnessed in India, UK etc I would have thought 10,000 cases per day by end of September would be nearer the mark. However we will never know the true numbers given the extent and organised corrupt reporting mechanisms put in place by this appalling administration.

It is going to be over 25k per day easy the Delta virus spreads much quicker it can double each week. this is now happening in UK and USA. also by air and is much worse when you NOT vaccinated, 

[Thunglom]

just for a bit of perspective, the UK is at about 25,000 per day. With high (50%) vaccination nd they are controversially ending all restrictions on 19th July. I wonder if relatively unvaccinated Thailand will want Brits to come in when their home country is so highly infected.

 

70% of infections in BKK are now Delta variant........ this is 60% more contagious than the alpha variant. It could spread like wildfire. Only a coupe of weeks ago people on Samui were claiming 4000 was the peak. This sort of complacency is very alarming.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Thunglom

[bangon04]

"Thailand could see 10,000 Covid-19 cases per day by the year’s end unless the vaccination rate picks up,"

 

or unless the testing rate is reduced.......

[ourmanflint]

16 hours ago, Excel said:

Frankly I am surprised he was suggesting 10,000 cases per day by years end. Given the transmissibility of the Delta strain, then as witnessed in India, UK etc I would have thought 10,000 cases per day by end of September would be nearer the mark. However we will never know the true numbers given the extent and organised corrupt reporting mechanisms put in place by this appalling administration.

By the end of July. This is no slow moving virus now. All hope of control has gone

[daveAustin]

Reckon you're well beyond that, 'senior Dr'. Thailand would likely be up around the 100k mark if you would test. 

[DBath]

I wonder, what the head clown of this corrupt non-flying circus of an administration is going to do when the music stops and there’s no place left for him to sit. 

Edited July 5, 2021 by DBath

[hotchilli]

19 hours ago, tingtong said:

Must applaud the propaganda optimism here.

 

Tourist and vaccine numbers continuously overestimated,

Covid cases and economic impact continously underestimated.

 

A rude awakening looming when the game is over, and time to face the reality.

This government has a penchant for blurring reality.

[hotchilli]

15 hours ago, Goldpanner said:

Learn to die, you mean?

In a sense yes & no.... vaccinations are not cures, they will reduce the effects of an infection. not reduce infections.

A bit like the Flu jab, you might still get it but the symptoms are much easier to cope with or treat.

This is not going to go away, but with a comprehensive vaccination programme it will reduce hospital admissions and deaths.

Unfortunately we have the wrong regime in place for this to happen, they seem to have other priorities.

 

[DUNROAMIN]

If they tested 24/7 I think already well past 10,000. We will never know real numbers.

[jacko45k]

22 hours ago, Excel said:

Frankly I am surprised he was suggesting 10,000 cases per day by years end. Given the transmissibility of the Delta strain

Yes, I think they can do better..... take a look at the graph and presuming the line keeps going in the same direction (and what is there to stop it), that number could be with us before September is out. 

[NoshowJones]

22 hours ago, ericdiam said:

By this month end and by year end easily 100000 a day. If these stupid government continues the way they play now 

Maybe I have missed something. Go back to the statistics from May 1st, how many people have recovered and gone home?

During the "1st" wave, there were always reports daily about this.

[Rocking Robert]

The number of cases doesn’t matter as long as the right people are vaccinated Healthcare workersThe old and the people with pre-existing condition that will keep the death rate down and let herd Immunity take over

[teacherofwoe]

On 7/5/2021 at 7:49 PM, Bluespunk said:

Number of tests does not determine the number of cases, it determines the number of cases found.
 

Therefore if enough tests are not being carried out, there could be many more of the population who have Covid and we wouldn’t know about it. 
 

That means it wouldn’t take 19 years to infect the population, which is how long you said it would take.

I didn't suggest that cases would stay at 10,000 per day but at that rate it would take 19 years. Obviously, they will test more and more people daily so the case numbers can go up. If there is no testing done today, how many cases will there be today? Zero.

[jacko45k]

15 hours ago, Rocking Robert said:

The number of cases doesn’t matter as long as the right people are vaccinated Healthcare workersThe old and the people with pre-existing condition that will keep the death rate down and let herd Immunity take over

Herd immunity, by infection rather than vaccination, was a pipe dream in the early days of the pandemic, promoted by our most dim witted political leaders.

For a country of 50 million adults, 80% infected level, and a death rate of 2%, that could be 800,000 deaths.  Countries with much higher populations have not reached those levels (highest is USA at 621,000). Not an attractive approach.

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by jacko45k

[The Cipher]

2 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

For a country of 50 million adults, 80% infected level, and a death rate of 2%, that could be 800,000 deaths.  Countries with much higher populations have not reached those levels (highest is USA at 621,000). Not an attractive approach.

 

A hit of less than 1/50 of pop in order to resume normal life immediately? It's not unattractive, honestly.

[jacko45k]

3 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

 

A hit of less than 1/50 of pop in order to resume normal life immediately? It's not unattractive, honestly.

I am not sure either approach takes us back to normal life, no way immediately.... people would still fear Covid.