Concerns over livelihood outweigh Covid-19 fears in Thailand's deep red zones

[webfact]

The state of Thailand's tourist industry is reflected in the dim alleyways of the famed Chatuchak weekend market.ST PHOTO: TAN TAM MEI

 

Tan Tam Mei

Thailand Correspondent

 

BANGKOK - Lotus Massage Parlour reopened its doors in mid-June and barely a month later, tighter Covid-19 restrictions forced it to shutter again.

 

"This is the third time this year. I don't know how long I can go on," owner Nawaporn Yotthong, 45, told The Straits Times.

 

"Are we scared of the virus? No. We're scared that we have no money to live." She was frustrated in the past when her shop was forced to close.

 

Full story: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/concerns-over-livelihood-outweigh-covid-19-fears-in-thailands-deep-red-zones

 

-- © Copyright The Straits Times 2021-07-14

 

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[MayBeNow]

Poor shop owner. And all this for covid, that desease blown out of proportion by calling it a pandemic so everyone is afraid. This desease kills less then a percent of the infected, and the ones dying are mostly with one leg in their grave anyway. Utter collective madness to shut down and lockdown life for this. 

[ezzra]

I know that 3 people of whom 2 are long staying foreigners in Thailand the other is a frequent visitor to Pattaya who pooled 30,000 baht together to do 2 sessions of a free food and water in Jomtian today and tomorrow, where boxes of hotel's cooked food will handed out to 350 people each day, this is organised by the local amphe and the hotel people who generously donated their facilities and their time for the events...

Edited July 13, 2021 by ezzra

[internationalism]

those doing services can contact their clients and offer home visits. Or use back door to enter premises.

 I have seen a receptionist from a small private music school seating outside the premises. I bet they can arrange teachers to teach at homes.

At the beginning of the 3rd wave I have put info on fb massage groups for home visits. Nobody ever replied, as with my previous info during the 1st wave.

Looks, like they are not proactive, as would be businesses doing in the west. 

[nobodysfriend]

Now the government can show how they behave in a national emergency .

Dead from Covid or from starvation ...?

Provide free effective vaccines to the population now .

The consequences of not doing so could mean trouble for Prajut . Need to speed up the vaccination program before it is too late .

[The Cipher]

I don't expect bulk of any population to ever understand the opportunity cost of time, so my hope now is that the fear of the certainty hardship overtakes the fear of the uncertainty of catching Covid as the dominant concern in the public sentiment.

 

Maybe that way we'll finally see an end to these ridiculous restrictions. It's just not worth it.

[Walker88]

5 hours ago, MayBeNow said:

Poor shop owner. And all this for covid, that desease blown out of proportion by calling it a pandemic so everyone is afraid. This desease kills less then a percent of the infected, and the ones dying are mostly with one leg in their grave anyway. Utter collective madness to shut down and lockdown life for this. 

In light of new facts emerging, your statement is patently untrue.

 

The Delta variant---an inevitable mutation and perhaps a harbinger of things to come---doesn't care about 'one leg in the grave (as if that justifies those deaths). Delta is striking perfectly healthy children and young adults and landing them on ventilators in ICUs.

 

In the US, in States where vax rates are low, this is the new wave. Articles have appeared about Missouri and Mississippi, noting even children are falling prey to Delta.

 

Viruses mutate. The more virus molecules in existence means more chances for mutations, which can be as simply as a protein folding a different way (and affecting human cells in a deleterious manner) or the shift in a charged group on a long protein chain.

 

Vaccination and other mitigation measures are aimed at limiting the number of virus molecules in existence. A vaxxed person can still contract, but their viral load will be less than a non-vaxxed person, so the 'numbers game' of mutations are restricted.

 

Note that we're 19 months into the pandemic, with no end in sight in most places.

 

A total of 3.4 billion doses of vaccine have been administered since vaccines hit the market in December 2020. In a world population of 7.8 billion, and a goal of 70% vaccinated, that means (two jabs per person) the world still needs 8.5 billion doses of vaccine, which is two and a half times as many doses as have been given since December 2020.

 

While the world waits, the virus doesn't. New variants will emerge. Some will be inert, some may well be particularly virulent. In a sense the world got lucky in 1918 with the so-called Spanish Flu, as the most transmittable form turned out to be less virulent. Covid is taking a different path, as its mutations are proving to be both easily transmissable and virulent.

 

Before Covid is all said and done, we might look back and see a billion dead. We thought we beat it with Pfizer and Moderna, and those two do seem to be 80-90% effective against the worst aspects of Delta. What is unknown is how long the antibodies elicited by those vaccines last. With Sinovac, which is ineffective against Delta, there's a 50% falloff in antibodies after 4 months, which means the original variants become a threat to those who received the Sinovac vaccine.

 

 

[Peterphuket]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

I know that 3 people of whom 2 are long staying foreigners in Thailand the other is a frequent visitor to Pattaya who pooled 30,000 baht together to do 2 sessions of a free food and water in Jomtian today and tomorrow, where boxes of hotel's cooked food will handed out to 350 people each day, this is organised by the local amphe and the hotel people who generously donated their facilities and their time for the events...

Isn't a good idea to start here on the forum a pool for this kind of people.

I also like to help this people but it is a bit hard to wave with money in the street.

[Walker88]

12 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

etc.

 

 

I understand the economic dislocation. I own a business in Thailand and it is being hurt by the restrictions. I do think some of the restrictions are unnecessary and instituted merely for the sake of looking like the govt is doing something. Others are useful. Perhaps over time the measures can be fine-tuned to take common sense into consideration.

 

I do not think restrictions on massage parlors are unnecessary. As we all know, very few 'feet' get massaged in most parlors, despite that being the only area allowed to be massaged during the recent mitigations measures, though now even that has been halted.

 

Bars are a similar threat of viral spread.

 

On the other hand, if grocery stores---which are particularly crowded---can be open, perhaps mall stores can be open, as a clothing store is rarely as crowded as a grocery store. Customers could be limited per area of each store. Business could go on.

 

That's just one example. Still, some mitigation measures are necessary, particularly in view of the insidious nature of the Delta variant. Theoretically Thailand has a few hundred billion in foreign reserves, so the govt could aid those hurt worst by the economic decline. Certainly that makes more sense that buying a submarine, which is merely a 'blue pill' for impotent military folks.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Walker88

[Peterphuket]

It reminds me in the Netherlands there are food banks, (Yes I know it shouldn't be in a rich country) but why not in Thailand, shops can bring food almost past the best before date, and can help this way the poor people.

[johng]

15 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

The Delta variant---an inevitable mutation and perhaps a harbinger of things to come---doesn't care about 'one leg in the grave (as if that justifies those deaths). Delta is striking perfectly healthy children and young adults and landing them on ventilators in ICUs.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-why-is-there-a-surge-in-winter-viruses-at-the-moment-12354845

 

"COVID-19 restrictions created an "immunity debt" that health officials warn could put pressure on the NHS in the coming months."

 

"Infections other than COVID fell over the past year due to limits on socialising, improved hygiene and mask wearing. This reduced the build-up of antibodies that protect people against illness, creating what experts are calling an "immunity debt".

 

"RSV is more deadly for young children than COVID. It accounts for more than 5% of global deaths in under-fives, according to the 2015 Global Burden of Disease Study.

A similar surge is expected in flu cases, which have been in the low single figures in England over the past year, according to the Datamart flu surveillance system. In most years, there are between 10,000 and 30,000 deaths from flu in the UK."

[The Cipher]

7 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Viruses mutate. The more virus molecules in existence means more chances for mutations, which can be as simply as a protein folding a different way (and affecting human cells in a deleterious manner) or the shift in a charged group on a long protein chain.

Before Covid is all said and done, we might look back and see a billion dead.

Extraordinary claims probably need a little more supporting evidence than 'I feel particularly scared on this fine morning.'

 

Humans have been dealing with transmissible viruses for as long as we've been a species. As far as I am aware, none of them have miraculously mutated from their original forms into pathogens that are thousands of times more deadly. And certainly not within the course of a generation. I do not have the background to do that math on the likelihood of a mutation like that occurring (I suspect nobody on here does), but I am pretty sure there is a reason why absolutely no credible source has sounded the doomsday bell to that extent.

 

In fact, once the dry tinder is gone - if a virus as weak as Covid can even manage to deplete it at all - I suspect we'd start to see death rates decline. I'm not saying that accepting Covid as an implicit cap on longevity is a good thing, but it might end up being that for a temporary period. Why temporary?

 

Because....humans as a species have been extraordinarily good at mitigating the damage from pathogens in the long run. And hazards of the natural world generally (certainly from the 1800s onwards). This can be  evidenced by consulting any chart of human population growth over time, and any central tendency measure for lifespan over time. We came up with fairly effective vaccines for Covid in less than a year, and I have no doubt that the ingenuity of our species will be able to keep Covid contained.

 

So before suggesting that Covid could kill between 12-15% of our population, maybe it could start by trying to get to *checks notes* even 1/10 of 1% first (lulz).

[WEBBYB808]

Eerily similar to the movie,"Jaws" directed by Steven Spielberg,  The sharks in the water,  analogy (Covid), but the Mayor and businessman  want the shop open so they can make money off of tourism.  But the Chief of Police, and Scientists,  arent certain that theres a man eater in the water, but if it is, people will die.  So here we have Covid, and the economy depends on tourist.  Close the beach Cheif Brody stated.  The Mayor of Amity didnt listen, and the shark got the one boy.  One loss of life is too many when it could have been avoided.   Of course this is a movie, and there is no scenario in reality thats eerily similar, or is there?

[ifmu]

7 hours ago, MayBeNow said:

Poor shop owner. And all this for covid, that desease blown out of proportion by calling it a pandemic so everyone is afraid. This desease kills less then a percent of the infected, and the ones dying are mostly with one leg in their grave anyway. Utter collective madness to shut down and lockdown life for this. 

a very sad reply to a serious pandemic .. you do not care at all about the dead and almost dead ..   i think u would if it was y our family

[ezzra]

2 hours ago, Peterphuket said:

but it is a bit hard to wave with money in the street

In the post it stated that it was organised and supervised with the help of the local Pattaya Amphe authorities and a hotel who prepared and distributed the food... 

[Peterphuket]

5 minutes ago, ezzra said:

In the post it stated that it was organised and supervised with the help of the local Pattaya Amphe authorities and a hotel who prepared and distributed the food... 

But again, why not a pool here on "Aseannow" ?

[Doctor Tom]

2 hours ago, Peterphuket said:

It reminds me in the Netherlands there are food banks, (Yes I know it shouldn't be in a rich country) but why not in Thailand, shops can bring food almost past the best before date, and can help this way the poor people.

Charitable activities are not a priority in Thailand.  It's National religion is by nature and definition  self absorbed, individual centric and not community driven ( Its adherents taking food from the poor  and other 'merit' to feed themselves) and this Government, and all its predecessors, demand a work permit for those foreigners who have the time, money and the wish to carry out voluntary and charitable activities for no remuneration. They expect the family unit to do the job of charities and government, a very  unenlightened attitude to social care, that was largely abandoned in the West in the early 1900s. This also explains, to some degree, the slow, crawling pace of the vaccine program for its citizens.   'They don't care' maybe a little harsh, but it's plainly not far from the truth.  Many of the problems  in this country over the past 100 or so  years, have been due to the massive disconnect between the rural poor and the urban rich.  Covid is only making this many times worse.   

[Walker88]

2 hours ago, The Cipher said:

 

 

Humans have been dealing with transmissible viruses for as long as we've been a species. As far as I am aware, none of them have miraculously mutated from their original forms into pathogens that are thousands of times more deadly.

JFC, do you think "On the 5th day God created all the viruses that will ever exist"?

 

Where do you think viruses come from? Comets?

 

Let me re-write the Virus Bible: "In the beginning, there was one virus...then it mutated a billion times to form the billions of types of viruses that exist today, from HPV to HIV to SARS to MERS to a billion others". All are those noted lethal, albeit affecting different parts of the human genetic system.

 

Every entity that can replicate (viruses do not fit the definition of 'living', but they can replicate) mutates over time. Conditions make some mutations beneficial to survival of the entity, some do not. Darwin called this 'survival of the fittest', but it is merely ability to adapt to conditions that change.

 

A virus that mutates into a more easily transmissable form (like Delta) becomes dominant BECAUSE of its mutation. Such mutations that make a virus more easily transmissable may be harmless or virulent, or anything in between.  Virulence is independent of transmissability, though transmissability and virulence make for a particularly dangerous virus. Yes, greater virulence means it kills its host faster, but the transmissability allows it to get replicating.

 

Many viruses and bacteria (bacteria do qualify as 'living') have taken major swathes of the human population since Oldavai Gorge. It would not be unheard of for a fast-mutating virus like Covid to become something truly horrific, just as some bacteria now are building immunity even against last line of defense antibiotics. The original Covid wasn't much of a threat to East Asians (historical exposure to viruses emerging from China). It wasn't much of a threat to young and fit Westerners, either. Delta changes all of that.

 

Delta is an example of something you claim doesn't exist. remember, EVERY virus in existence is merely a mutated for of the first virus that formed about 3 billion years ago. Virologists are now concerned that lack of widespread vaccination might allow Covid to mutate into something even worse than Delta, a variant the deniers would have tsk tsk'd a year ago.

 

The first viruses to emerge on Earth might not have been a threat to, for example, birds. Somewhere along the millennia a virus mutated into something that did threaten birds, hence its name "Bird Flu".  See how this mutation stuff works?

 

It's not fear mongering; it's science.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Walker88

[sammieuk1]

Until a general order's covid gone you will remain shut and starve the government has done everything it can to exsasabate the crisis please bare with us another couple of year's 

[Thomas J]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

"Are we scared of the virus? No. We're scared that we have no money to live."

You may catch the virus - a possibility.  You may die from the virus - a possibility.  Your business is closed and you have no money to live - a certainty

Thai people prefer betting on a possibility rather than a certainty.  

[bert bloggs]

8 hours ago, MayBeNow said:

Poor shop owner. And all this for covid, that desease blown out of proportion by calling it a pandemic so everyone is afraid. This desease kills less then a percent of the infected, and the ones dying are mostly with one leg in their grave anyway. Utter collective madness to shut down and lockdown life for this. 

There is an old saying" who wants to live to 100 the man who is 99" ,wait till you have one leg in the grave,you wont want to put the other one in

[The Cipher]

44 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

JFC, do you think "On the 5th day God created all the viruses that will ever exist"?

 

Where do you think viruses come from? Comets?

 

Let me re-write the Virus Bible: "In the beginning, there was one virus...then it mutated a billion times to form the billions of types of viruses that exist today, from HPV to HIV to SARS to MERS to a billion others". All are those noted lethal, albeit affecting different parts of the human genetic system.

It's not fear mongering; it's science.

Dude, you accuse me of being religious (which I not in any way) and then hit me with an entire post of pseudoscientific bs?

 

44 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

A virus that mutates into a more easily transmissable form (like Delta) becomes dominant BECAUSE of its mutation. Such mutations that make a virus more easily transmissable may be harmless or virulent, or anything in between.  Virulence is independent of transmissability, though transmissability and virulence make for a particularly dangerous virus. Yes, greater virulence means it kills its host faster, but the transmissability allows it to get replicating.

 

Many viruses and bacteria (bacteria do qualify as 'living') have taken major swathes of the human population since Oldavai Gorge. It would not be unheard of for a fast-mutating virus like Covid to become something truly horrific, just as some bacteria now are building immunity even against last line of defense antibiotics. The original Covid wasn't much of a threat to East Asians (historical exposure to viruses emerging from China). It wasn't much of a threat to young and fit Westerners, either. Delta changes all of that.

I never claimed at any point that viruses don't mutate or that they cannot mutate into more dangerous forms. My post was in direct counter to your proposition that Covid could pick up a body count of a billion - which I assume would have to be in some short term period like the next 1-5 years, because given a long enough time frame, sure. Any virus could kill a billion.

 

Your suggestion directly implies that Covid has a realistic likelihood of evolving in within that time frame into a form approximately 1400% more lethal than it is now. Meanwhile, despite all the talk of ThE deLtΔ vAriAnT, the data suggest that daily deaths, both in total and percentage form, are way down in many major countries - including those like the US that have pretty much fully reopened. Why? Probably because vaccines are working, and because we've learned to better treat the disease in those who do fall seriously ill. Not exactly a slippery slope down into the abyss, is it?

 

44 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Delta is an example of something you claim doesn't exist. remember, EVERY virus in existence is merely a mutated for of the first virus that formed about 3 billion years ago. Virologists are now concerned that lack of widespread vaccination might allow Covid to mutate into something even worse than Delta, a variant the deniers would have tsk tsk'd a year ago.

 

The first viruses to emerge on Earth might not have been a threat to, for example, birds. Somewhere along the millennia a virus mutated into something that did threaten birds, hence its name "Bird Flu".  See how this mutation stuff works?

I am also not claiming at any point that Covid will not mutate into something worse than Delta. Maybe the (hypothetical future) Epsilon variant will wipe humanity to extinction, maybe the Zeta variant will or Eta or Theta. But what are the odds? And what is the cost of fully hedging that risk? Those are the key questions here.

 

So before you accuse me of being a religious nut or science denier, maybe turn in your membership card to the Cult of Covid first. Because probabilistic science isn't ƒvcking magic, man.

Edited July 14, 2021 by The Cipher
Lulz. Hi mods.

[johng]

2 hours ago, The Cipher said:

As far as I am aware, none of them have miraculously mutated from their original forms into pathogens that are thousands of times more deadly.

Except perhaps  one manipulated in a lab  ???

[nobodysfriend]

6 hours ago, Walker88 said:

With Sinovac, which is ineffective against Delta, there's a 50% falloff in antibodies after 4 months

Good post , but the 50% falloff happens after 40 days already .

[Knocker33]

It's not only the deep red zones. Bars and restaurants all over Thailand are struggling  while the rich areas like Phuket and Samui get all the help recently

[Walker88]

7 hours ago, The Cipher said:

Dude, you accuse me of being religious (which I not in any way) and then hit me with an entire post of pseudoscientific bs?

 

I never claimed at any point that viruses don't mutate or that they cannot mutate into more dangerous forms. My post was in direct counter to your proposition that Covid could pick up a body count of a billion - which I assume would have to be in some short term period like the next 1-5 years, because given a long enough time frame, sure. Any virus could kill a billion.

 

Your suggestion directly implies that Covid has a realistic likelihood of evolving in within that time frame into a form approximately 1400% more lethal than it is now. Meanwhile, despite all the talk of ThE deLtΔ vAriAnT, the data suggest that daily deaths, both in total and percentage form, are way down in many major countries - including those like the US that have pretty much fully reopened. Why? Probably because vaccines are working, and because we've learned to better treat the disease in those who do fall seriously ill. Not exactly a slippery slope down into the abyss, is it?

 

I am also not claiming at any point that Covid will not mutate into something worse than Delta. Maybe the (hypothetical future) Epsilon variant will wipe humanity to extinction, maybe the Zeta variant will or Eta or Theta. But what are the odds? And what is the cost of fully hedging that risk? Those are the key questions here.

 

So before you accuse me of being a religious nut or science denier, maybe turn in your membership card to the Cult of Covid first. Because probabilistic science isn't ƒvcking magic, man.

Points seem to be missed again.

 

Imagine if HIV had emerged in, say, the 1700s and not 1979. How many people would that virus have killed? It did kill almost 40 million worldwide, but the deaths were mitigated by the arrival of anti-viral drug cocktails. SARS had a really high mortality rate, but was ringfenced early on. Polio killed millions, too, up until the late 1970s. Ebola has the ability to kill at an incredible rate, but that, too, was ringfenced.

 

What made Covid even more insidious---though less deadly so far than SARS or MERS---was that it could be spread by asymptomatic people. That is its 'competitive advantage'. That also means that more Covid molecules exist across the world than SARS ever did, which means more chances for mutations.

 

There was no 'pseudoscience' in my post. EVERY virus in existence today has a common single ancestor. The range of viruses in existence may attack different systems in living creatures, but that is BECAUSE of mutations that occurred over three billion years since the first virus formed.

 

If you have studied biochemistry, you would know mutations are often very slight alterations in the structure of a molecule, or in RNA or DNA of a replicating entity. Our own cells mess up DNA replication on a regular basis, which is one definition of 'aging'. The body engages in DNA repair if the right chemicals and molecules are present, or if the poorly replicated cell dies, the body engages in autophagy to rid itself of the dead or hopelessly damaged cell. Viruses are much simpler entities than our cells, so minor alterations in their structure have much greater effects on the nature of the virus molecule. As I noted, sometimes it is as simple as a different folding of a protein molecule. Other times it's a shift of a charged group of atoms. it's sometimes a simple change that makes one molecule harmless and another virulent.

 

Mutations may not be common, but when trillions of Covid virus molecules exist, even an extremely low rate of mutation can produce dangerous strains. We've changed their names to protect the innocent, so to speak, but we have a few worrying strains now in the form of Delta and Lambda. Alpha Covid didn't effect the young and strong too much; Delta does.

 

I do not know how much chemistry and biology you have studied, but I think if you had a decent background in those disciplines you would be much more cautious in how you see Covid playing out over time. We need both speed and luck.

 

Time and numbers are to the advantage of Covid. Given the need to get at least 70% of the human population vaccinated---thus limiting the collective viral load---we're working against time. 3.4 billion total vaccine doses have been given since December 2020. To get 70% of 7.8 billion humans two jabs will require 8.4 billion more doses. How long will that take, given that in 8 months 'only' 3.4 billion doses have been given?

 

We might get lucky. We probably won't see what, for example, the Black Plague (a bacteria) did to 15th Century Europe, where major cities saw upwards of 50% mortality. That is a Fat Tail, an outlier, but nonetheless it is a possibility. Of greater likelihood is something on the order of what the 1918 Flu did, though the odds may not be high for that. We're working against time and the randomness of mutation. A few virologists are quietly, but forcefully, sounding the alarm. We best pay attention.

[The Cipher]

2 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Points seem to be missed again.

 

Imagine if HIV had emerged in, say, the 1700s and not 1979. How many people would that virus have killed? It did kill almost 40 million worldwide, but the deaths were mitigated by the arrival of anti-viral drug cocktails. SARS had a really high mortality rate, but was ringfenced early on. Polio killed millions, too, up until the late 1970s. Ebola has the ability to kill at an incredible rate, but that, too, was ringfenced.

 

What made Covid even more insidious---though less deadly so far than SARS or MERS---was that it could be spread by asymptomatic people. That is its 'competitive advantage'. That also means that more Covid molecules exist across the world than SARS ever did, which means more chances for mutations.

 

There was no 'pseudoscience' in my post. EVERY virus in existence today has a common single ancestor. The range of viruses in existence may attack different systems in living creatures, but that is BECAUSE of mutations that occurred over three billion years since the first virus formed.

 

If you have studied biochemistry, you would know mutations are often very slight alterations in the structure of a molecule, or in RNA or DNA of a replicating entity. Our own cells mess up DNA replication on a regular basis, which is one definition of 'aging'. The body engages in DNA repair if the right chemicals and molecules are present, or if the poorly replicated cell dies, the body engages in autophagy to rid itself of the dead or hopelessly damaged cell. Viruses are much simpler entities than our cells, so minor alterations in their structure have much greater effects on the nature of the virus molecule. As I noted, sometimes it is as simple as a different folding of a protein molecule. Other times it's a shift of a charged group of atoms. it's sometimes a simple change that makes one molecule harmless and another virulent.

 

Mutations may not be common, but when trillions of Covid virus molecules exist, even an extremely low rate of mutation can produce dangerous strains. We've changed their names to protect the innocent, so to speak, but we have a few worrying strains now in the form of Delta and Lambda. Alpha Covid didn't effect the young and strong too much; Delta does.

 

I do not know how much chemistry and biology you have studied, but I think if you had a decent background in those disciplines you would be much more cautious in how you see Covid playing out over time. We need both speed and luck.

 

Time and numbers are to the advantage of Covid. Given the need to get at least 70% of the human population vaccinated---thus limiting the collective viral load---we're working against time. 3.4 billion total vaccine doses have been given since December 2020. To get 70% of 7.8 billion humans two jabs will require 8.4 billion more doses. How long will that take, given that in 8 months 'only' 3.4 billion doses have been given?

 

We might get lucky. We probably won't see what, for example, the Black Plague (a bacteria) did to 15th Century Europe, where major cities saw upwards of 50% mortality. That is a Fat Tail, an outlier, but nonetheless it is a possibility. Of greater likelihood is something on the order of what the 1918 Flu did, though the odds may not be high for that. We're working against time and the randomness of mutation. A few virologists are quietly, but forcefully, sounding the alarm. We best pay attention.

This was actually a reasonable post and a calm response to my previous attempt to inflame, so props for that.

 

But my concern is that your comment still dances around what I consider to be my core probability-based rebuttal on the mathematical likelihood of an extreme downside event.

 

I do have an understanding of what viruses are, how they work, and how and why mutation occurs. I'm not disputing that Covid could mutate further or that it's current freedom to replicate in billions of unvaccinated bodies speeds the velocity of mutation. I am in favor of drastic measures to accelerate the vaccine rollout worldwide.
 

But. My position is that unless there is a transparent and credible model that outputs a meaningful degree of probability for a material downside evolution of Covid, we cannot continue to make policy based on some nebulous chance that this could occur. Tail risk is tail risk for a reason - because the probability of a severe negative outcome is low.

 

I haven't seen any credible information at all to suggest that Covid death rates could reach even 1% of pop per annum. It's possible that you are aware of credible virologists producing research that suggest realistic paths to double digit death rates for Covid - if that is indeed the case, then those virologists should be transparent with their models and the assumptions made in them. If the work is good, then that research should help convince the world of the looming risk.

 

But in the absence of that data in the interim, and based on the credible data that I have available to me at this time, it seems that the most prudent course of action is for the world to continue the vaccine rollout at all speed, but otherwise to start moving on with life after Covid.