SURVEY: How long before Thailand returns to normal?

[kynikoi]

On 8/2/2021 at 10:32 AM, Callmeishmael said:

Smallpox

Polio (not entirely eradicated because of religion and human ignorance)

Also

Scarlet fever, Typhoid and Cholera are no longer common childhood killers.

But all still exist in the wild save for smallpox. Add MERS, ebola and monkey pox.

 

So, admittedly these viruses did not go gently into that good night but it was decades of fierce, worldwide campaigns.

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, possum1931 said:

I am not saying that this is really true, but as I understand it, most Chinese men do not frequent the bars.

Chinese, Japanese, Koreans and most Asian men love drinking too and girls and they have their own type of bars that they frequent. 

[spidermike007]

With an economy that is 20% dependent on tourism, and 50% dependent on exports, it could be many years. I do not think tourism will ever return, to even close to the former levels. I expect 3-5 million tourists, five years from now, and that means millions out of work, long term. Dozens of problems existed long before Covid, the industry is being run by one of the least talented men in the nation, and a tremendous degree of harm has been done. Call it destruction, call it sabotage, depending on your point of view. 

 

No question, the economic recovery here will likely make the 1997 debacle look like a walk in the park. If you are looking to buy a condo, or a business, just wait. Many markets will drop. It is inevitable. 

[samtam]

On 8/1/2021 at 6:27 PM, kynikoi said:

First, covid is not going away. With vaccine and herd immunity it can be mitigated. One year for the order, one year for the aftermath and one year begins the attempt to rebuild. This is just covid that means laws, trust, return to what most consider normal.

 

Especially if we lockdown for two months in next few weeks (in the next year there will be many lockdowns) the economy is doomed. This will take five years to recover imo. Thais already indebted. Economy already teetering since 2015.

 

Factories will have huge issues managing covid, illness and production. Two years or more.

 

We don't know the social implications of the loss of parents and breadwinners. By govts estimates 30k pm with nothing to reign it in. People are doing stupid stuff  yesterday I saw a guy buying carrots in Big C. He risked covid for carrots.

 

Tourism. As long as ASQ and all the paperwork and circus is in place tourism is dead.

 

Thailand will need to produce vaccine passport because why not $$$

 

I don't see the housing market moving or at all healthy. This can go on until the banks call the loans but they can't bc they've given overextended second, third mortgages. Oh well.

 

Politically there is no return to democratic process and what we in the west consider proper due process and jurisprudence. What this dissolution means for the future no one knows but I don't see how it can be a positive.

 

It will be five years or two years after the US sorts itself out. Whichever is less.

Was it the carrots, or the buying of food? I'm not sure I understand the severity of risk.

 

 

On 8/2/2021 at 11:23 AM, Skallywag said:

There is no normal anymore....where have you been for the last 16 months man!!!

 

The New Normal has begun at the Phuket sandbox... changes and adjustments will be made and things will get back to some semblance of what they were before Covid within the next 6 months if 75% of Thais are vaccinated

And therein lies the rub. 75% vaccination of Thailand's population within 6 months seems very ambitious given the monthly rate thus far.

[kynikoi]

8 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Most diseases are beaten by clean drinking water and plentiful food.

I'm not sure vaccination or 'worldwide campaigns' plays any significant part.

 

I believe it certainly did with smallpox and polio. But these are stable virus unlike random influenza.

 

Influenza vaccines have never worked. I've never had one in my entire life. First, because I'm healthy and I have a fairly strong immune system. Second, they're no good and a waste of money. Back home I recall vividly each year some television announcer would say everyone go out and get your flu vaccine at blah blah blah drug store. Of course, it's only as good as xyz because we know that the flu constantly mutates blah blah blah.

 

If the AZ vaccine keeps me from serious illness and doesn't impact my long-term health I'll be more than happy with it. I fully expect at some point in my life that that virus will pass through me.

[kynikoi]

5 hours ago, samtam said:

Was it the carrots, or the buying of food? I'm not sure I understand the severity of risk.

It was the carrots. Standing in line with only three carrots. Meanwhile there were half a dozen people around him with no more than a meter at best distance.

[drenddy]

Next week, perhaps Friday.

[hugocnx]

On 8/2/2021 at 5:20 PM, scorecard said:

Just under 18,000 new infection recorded today 2 August, and a large % of that number will pass it on it, and some (a small number) who come in contact with the 18,000 today won't get it and won't pass it on because they are vaccinated*.

 

*But the number fully vaccinated right now in Thailand is quite small so the number who will pass it on is quite big.

 

Additionally, in a country like Thailand and typical Thai behaviors how do you successfully isolate such large numbers to try to prevent passing the virus to others? No real solid answer.

 

All meaning that number numbers of new infections will likely go up for several weeks and then lower but very slowly.

 

Plus it looks like the total numbers of fully vaccinated Thais will grow very slowly.

 

How does all of that fit into 'open up' in October?

 

 

My post was actually about something else; maybe you didn't get my meaning.

[Chivas]

2025 proably to get back to 2019 levels

[samtam]

2 hours ago, kynikoi said:

It was the carrots. Standing in line with only three carrots. Meanwhile there were half a dozen people around him with no more than a meter at best distance.

I've done that in the good old days, for my daily juice requirements, when I've forgotten to buy them in my weekly shop. Now I don't even go to the supermarket; I have my personal shopper buy my items on a weekly basis and they are delivered to my home. Been doing this for about a month, and will continue for the foreseeable. The last exit from my flat and it's environs was to get my jab, two weeks ago.

[cjinchiangrai]

12 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I'd be happy culling 50% of most populations, and 95% of a selected few.

Care to elaborate on your criteria or should we just start in Suffolk?

[cjinchiangrai]

*Deleted post edited out*

 

Water borne diseases are mostly bacterial or parasitic, not viral.

[Scott]

False or misleading posts and replies removed or edited. 

 

[Thunglom]

there is no option of "NEVER"??

[Thunglom]

On 8/3/2021 at 3:46 PM, cjinchiangrai said:

*Deleted post edited out*

 

Water borne diseases are mostly bacterial or parasitic, not viral.

Not true, waterborne viruses are a very big concern...

 - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4482390/

[Thunglom]

NEVER - Covid is covering up a lot of Thailand's problems and exacerbating many of them.

The economy is hugely damaged - whereas industry may well recover, tourism that makes up a huge 20% of the economy will change completely.

No-one has explained where any businesses will get capital to restart - the government doesn't appear to even believe the problem exists.

Natural resources that attract tourists are being destroyed by government indifference and neglect.

Pollution in industry is destroying whole swaths of the country's water, soil and air.

Then there is political discontent. Even at present there are riots on the streets of the capital.

This will result in either spreading to other areas and the clampdown by the military, which intern will stifle any economic growth.

 

either way a return to "normal" is a pe in the sky concept. 

 

Am optimist might say we will get a new, democratic climate conscious Thailand that reviews the tourist trade in a more environmentally sympathetic way, but pessimists will see a future of a militaristic government the prefers "law and order" to a fruitful, open and growing economy

[Khabib]

On 8/3/2021 at 8:53 AM, BritManToo said:

I don't agree!

I agree though, with you Mr Brit. Always good to agree.