Thailand reports 19,983 new COVID-19 cases, 138 deaths

[jazzdog32095]

48 minutes ago, placeholder said:

 

What that link you sent to me is not saying, is that it's unimportant ultimately to get everyone vaccinated. Which is what you claimed. Just that the priority should be given to those most vulnerable. And it actually doesn't prioritize on age so much as on vulnerability. For instance special attetion should be paid to the econoically disadgantaged. And those who have to work in close proximity ot the general population. So while it really doesn't at all agree with your model, I think it's very sensible..

 

In relation to vulnerability your argument was that what's past is prologue. That it's quite unimportant to vaccinate young people based on past mortality statistics. Here's what you wrote:

 

" How do you explain how delta or any variant is going to suddenly choose to attack younger, vital 40 and under and not a effect 55+ who are far more vulnerable?"

 

And you got that exactly wrong. The experts are now saying that the  virus is now more dangerous to young people than it was back then. And of course the explanation for that is simple and obvious: mutations.

 

In fact, even though young people are getting vaccinated at a lower rate than older groups, the fact is that they are getting vaccinated. Which obviously wasn't happening for a long time back when. Despite which, in absolute numbers, more are now being hospitalized than there were back then when vaccination wasn't an option. This is obviously very strong evidence that the virus is now more dangerous to young people than it was back then.

 

And as I pointed out earlier, it's precisely because of the threat posed by mutations, that it's important to get the infection rate down, and the severity of infections down. The less infections that there are, and the less severe they are, the lower the less the opportunities for further mutations to occur.

The virus kills those with weak immunity. it would be wiping out 60+ now if not for the fact they are 95% jabbed. I agree the Chinese claim delta is making people sicker but not just younger but those without immunization. Fact is certain age groups don't jab. Why, who knows, but until they do the party goes on.  Thailand will not have that issue, we can't wait for more Pfizer/Moderna. People getting sick today, no matter their age in the USA, have nobody to blame but themselves IMO. They have been warned for months

 

 

[ChC1]

2 hours ago, jazzdog32095 said:

Last time man, In the US death is dealt 92.5% to 55+ and 2,5% to 40 and under. It's not a model it is what happened. How do you explain how delta or any variant is going to suddenly choose to attack younger, vital 40 and under and not a effect 55+ who are far more vulnerable? Possibly greater exposure risk. But we are talking death not new cases. I am certain the 40 and under crowd has a far higher % of new cases but they only die 2.5%. The delta indeed is transmitted double the rate but is not case by case more deadly. Read this it may help you understand that this is an old man disease.  Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by Sex and Age | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (cdc.gov)

You are keeping posting this number. But this number means nothing without considering the actual cases.

 

For once thing, majority of the death have one or two or even more health conditions. 

 

See CDC:

Certain Medical Conditions and Risk for Severe COVID-19 Illness | CDC

 

This is from the early research.

 

The second point is the early death among US death occurred in nursing homes. Remember the outcry when New York governor and what he did about nursing homes?

 

CDC also have a research:

Nursing Homes Data Dashboard | NHSN | CDC

 

So do you remember which group in US got vaccine first? It is not the elderly! It is the nurses and frontline workers. Especially the nursing home nurses were urged to take the vaccine asap, that is precisely for the purpose to break the infection chain happening in nursing homes. 

 

The first wave in USA had devastating effects on elderly people who have health problems or in nursing homes. Once you take out this population, there are not many unexpected death compare to normal years. It is partly due to vaccine, however, it is also true that when weaker population died, the remaining population are stronger in terms of immunity fighting the infection. 

 

Thailand is at a different stage compare to US and Europe. It did not get devastated scene from the first and second waves. It stood well. But the Delta variant is different. The social structure is different. The age structure is different. There are only 10% of Thai are over 65. However, there are 47% in 25-54 age groups with life expectancy of 75 years. Whereas in USA, there are over 14% are 65 and older, 40% in 25-54 age groups and life expectancy of 78.8 years. 

 

You might thing the 4% does not make much difference. But have a look at this website:

What Percent Of People Live In Nursing Homes? 101+ Stats! (simplyinsurance.com)

 

I quote from this insurance company:

[quote]In 2020 over 40% of all reported Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in the U.S. happened in a nursing home.[/quote]

 

The same source also claims 107,107 people from nursing home died of Covid in the US.

 

So, for one thing, how many people live in Nursing home in Thailand? I don't have the number. Considering USA has 1.8 million licenced nursing home beds, I would put a bet to say Thailand would not have more than 250,000 nursing home beds. 

 

I sincerely hope you stop quoting the same data over and over again. It is not useful in proving your points without look into what the data mean. 

 

I don't want to sound cynical, but, read this line in the statstitics I quoted you, it said 5 Months Is the average nursing home stay before death. What that means, is that the 107,107 Covid death happened in US nursing homes during last year, would still be dead by now in average even if they were given the vaccine. 

 

[jazzdog32095]

23 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

If you are going to silly math then maybe you should calculate the number of years saved ????  Average life expectancy (both sexes) in Thailand is a little less than 78, so if the person is 75 then you are saving only 30 years for that ten individuals.  Hmmm... I am sure there are some young people of lets say 30 years that if you saved one for those 10, you have saved more life years...   Math can be abused.  (I won't even get into weighting it by average productivity / contribution to society - which takes place for most people before 65; with the exceptions that take an active interest in charitable activities in their retirement). 

 

Vaccination is as much about trying to get to the point of herd immunity, and having society return to some level of normalcy (for economic reasons) as it is about protecting those that are at risk. 

 

That's as wrong and twisted as anything I've heard ever. Lets play God and while we're at let's call Soylent Industries to come pick up your over the hill Mom and Dad, a couple aunts and uncles, and have them returned as a box of Soylent Green. Dude, seek some help.

[jazzdog32095]

59 minutes ago, ChC1 said:

You are keeping posting this number. But this number means nothing without considering the actual cases.

 

For once thing, majority of the death have one or two or even more health conditions. 

 

See CDC:

Certain Medical Conditions and Risk for Severe COVID-19 Illness | CDC

 

This is from the early research.

 

The second point is the early death among US death occurred in nursing homes. Remember the outcry when New York governor and what he did about nursing homes?

 

CDC also have a research:

Nursing Homes Data Dashboard | NHSN | CDC

 

So do you remember which group in US got vaccine first? It is not the elderly! It is the nurses and frontline workers. Especially the nursing home nurses were urged to take the vaccine asap, that is precisely for the purpose to break the infection chain happening in nursing homes. 

 

The first wave in USA had devastating effects on elderly people who have health problems or in nursing homes. Once you take out this population, there are not many unexpected death compare to normal years. It is partly due to vaccine, however, it is also true that when weaker population died, the remaining population are stronger in terms of immunity fighting the infection. 

 

Thailand is at a different stage compare to US and Europe. It did not get devastated scene from the first and second waves. It stood well. But the Delta variant is different. The social structure is different. The age structure is different. There are only 10% of Thai are over 65. However, there are 47% in 25-54 age groups with life expectancy of 75 years. Whereas in USA, there are over 14% are 65 and older, 40% in 25-54 age groups and life expectancy of 78.8 years. 

 

You might thing the 4% does not make much difference. But have a look at this website:

What Percent Of People Live In Nursing Homes? 101+ Stats! (simplyinsurance.com)

 

I quote from this insurance company:

[quote]In 2020 over 40% of all reported Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths in the U.S. happened in a nursing home.[/quote]

 

The same source also claims 107,107 people from nursing home died of Covid in the US.

 

So, for one thing, how many people live in Nursing home in Thailand? I don't have the number. Considering USA has 1.8 million licenced nursing home beds, I would put a bet to say Thailand would not have more than 250,000 nursing home beds. 

 

I sincerely hope you stop quoting the same data over and over again. It is not useful in proving your points without look into what the data mean. 

 

I don't want to sound cynical, but, read this line in the statstitics I quoted you, it said 5 Months Is the average nursing home stay before death. What that means, is that the 107,107 Covid death happened in US nursing homes during last year, would still be dead by now in average even if they were given the vaccine. 

 

Finally after endless bloviating I understand where you are going with this. Your plan is just as twisted and disgusting to my way of thinking as the following comment. Difference is he didn't hide in the closet, just spit it out. Fortunately only people in the US and I would imagine a few communist countries would contemplate such ideas, much less spell it out on a forum. I much prefer living where God and family come first. Maybe you and this guy can hook up and trade notes on your fair innings argument. My comment is in reply to you both. 

 

If you are going to silly math then maybe you should calculate the number of years saved   Average life expectancy (both sexes) in Thailand is a little less than 78, so if the person is 75 then you are saving only 30 years for that ten individuals.  Hmmm... I am sure there are some young people of lets say 30 years that if you saved one for those 10, you have saved more life years...   Math can be abused.  (I won't even get into weighting it by average productivity / contribution to society - which takes place for most people before 65; with the exceptions that take an active interest in charitable activities in their retirement). 

 

Vaccination is as much about trying to get to the point of herd immunity, and having society return to some level of normalcy (for economic reasons) as it is about protecting those that are at risk. 

 

That's as wrong and twisted as anything I've heard ever. Lets play God and while we're at let's call Soylent Industries to come pick up your over the hill Mom and Dad, a couple aunts and uncles, and have them returned as a box of Soylent Green. Dude, seek some help.

[bkkcanuck8]

1 hour ago, jazzdog32095 said:

That's as wrong and twisted as anything I've heard ever. Lets play God and while we're at let's call Soylent Industries to come pick up your over the hill Mom and Dad, a couple aunts and uncles, and have them returned as a box of Soylent Green. Dude, seek some help.

Oh, I can be much more twisted, I can see humour in pretty much anything as humans generally are absurd quite often.   Any time you make life and death decisions in areas where you have a shortage, you are playing god... and that happens every day in the area of medicine...  The US healthcare system is rationed based on affordability, most other western countries are rationed based on agreed upon criteria on who they think deserves treatment (kidneys, hearts, etc.) and who does not - effectively rationed based on some made up criteria.   What I was responding to was effectively an abuse of math, where did the 55+ years come into play (I can only guess the person was greater than age 55 and less than 60), what rational was this age to split into two groups... in effect the purpose was first you had a conclusion they wanted to back up with some math and then through together some math to 'prove' their point.   Yes, vaccines are in short supply in Thailand, and MEDICAL professionals have to make life and death decisions on the prioritization of those vaccines... as ethically as they could...  I am fine and support professionals making those decisions and I have often said on many forums that people will just have to wait in line for their turn based, not try to jump ahead of Thais (as many were calling for earlier).  That said, you have made some fundamental mistakes ... Soylent Green should only be made of humans in their prime or at least the majority of it...  As far as COVID and aunts and uncles... well, I have mostly aunts very few uncles... and I have lost two of them to COVID....    Life is often absurd, humour is the only way to stay sane when the world goes insane.

 

Edited August 8, 2021 by bkkcanuck8

[jazzdog32095]

4 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Oh, I can be much more twisted, I can see humour in pretty much anything as humans generally are absurd quite often.   Any time you make life and death decisions in areas where you have a shortage, you are playing god... and that happens every day in the area of medicine...  The US healthcare system is rationed based on affordability, most other western countries are rationed based on agreed upon criteria on who they think deserves treatment (kidneys, hearts, etc.) and who does not - effectively rationed based on some made up criteria.   What I was responding to was effectively an abuse of math, where did the 55+ years come into play, what rational was this age to split into two groups... in effect the purpose was first you had a conclusion they wanted to back up with some math and then through together some math to 'prove' their point.   Yes, vaccines are in short supply in Thailand, and MEDICAL professionals have to make life and death decisions on the prioritization of those vaccines... as ethically as they could...  I am fine and support professionals making those decisions and I have often said on many forums that people will just have to wait in line for their turn based, not try to jump ahead of Thais (as many were calling for earlier).  That said, you have made some fundamental mistakes ... Soylent Green should only be made of humans in their prime or at least the majority of it...  As far as COVID and aunts and uncles... well, I have mostly aunts very few uncles... and I have lost two of them to COVID....    Life is often absurd, humour is the only way to stay sane when the world goes insane.

 

Your post was in no way humorous, once again , seek help

[Bkk Brian]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

 

What that link you sent to me is not saying, is that it's unimportant ultimately to get everyone vaccinated. Which is what you claimed. Just that the priority should be given to those most vulnerable. And it actually doesn't prioritize on age so much as on vulnerability. For instance special attetion should be paid to the econoically disadgantaged. And those who have to work in close proximity ot the general population. So while it really doesn't at all agree with your model, I think it's very sensible..

 

In relation to vulnerability your argument was that what's past is prologue. That it's quite unimportant to vaccinate young people based on past mortality statistics. Here's what you wrote:

 

" How do you explain how delta or any variant is going to suddenly choose to attack younger, vital 40 and under and not a effect 55+ who are far more vulnerable?"

 

And you got that exactly wrong. The experts are now saying that the  virus is now more dangerous to young people than it was back then. And of course the explanation for that is simple and obvious: mutations.

 

In fact, even though young people are getting vaccinated at a lower rate than older groups, the fact is that they are getting vaccinated. Which obviously wasn't happening for a long time back when. Despite which, in absolute numbers, more are now being hospitalized than there were back then when vaccination wasn't an option. This is obviously very strong evidence that the virus is now more dangerous to young people than it was back then.

 

And as I pointed out earlier, it's precisely because of the threat posed by mutations, that it's important to get the infection rate down, and the severity of infections down. The less infections that there are, and the less severe they are, the lower the less the opportunities for further mutations to occur.

Fauci: Allowing virus to replicate could make 'worse variant' that 'could impact the vaccinated'

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci has warned that allowing the coronavirus delta variant to circulate freely among unvaccinated individuals could lead to a more potent variant that could harm even vaccinated individuals. 

The delta variant has already given rise to a small variant known as "delta plus" variant that has a spike protein mutation that may cause it to spread faster. So far, the variant has appeared in only a few cases in several countries, but the original delta variant rapidly spread through the United States and became the dominant strain after only a few months. 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/fauci-virus-replicate-worse-variant-impact-vaccinated

The WHO vaccine plan very clearly says health workers and older adults as the 2 first priority groups. Look at the actual roadmap from page 17 and to the relevant stage of pandemic that Thailand is in now. The only time it changes priority is when there are no cases in a country then it gives priority to border patrol groups and health workers. Before older adults.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, jazzdog32095 said:

The virus kills those with weak immunity. it would be wiping out 60+ now if not for the fact they are 95% jabbed. I agree the Chinese claim delta is making people sicker but not just younger but those without immunization. Fact is certain age groups don't jab. Why, who knows, but until they do the party goes on.  Thailand will not have that issue, we can't wait for more Pfizer/Moderna. People getting sick today, no matter their age in the USA, have nobody to blame but themselves IMO. They have been warned for months

 

 

In Florida, which has the second-highest rate of new cases per capita after Louisiana, children's hospitals and staff are "overwhelmed," said Dr. Aileen Marty, an infectious disease expert at Florida International University. "The numbers of cases in our hospitals in children and our children's hospitals are completely overwhelmed," Marty told CNN's Jim Sciutto on Friday evening. "Our pediatricians, the nursing, the staff are exhausted, and the children are suffering. And it is absolutely devastating ... our children are very much affected. We've never seen numbers like this before," she said

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

If you are going to silly math then maybe you should calculate the number of years saved ????  Average life expectancy (both sexes) in Thailand is a little less than 78, so if the person is 75 then you are saving only 30 years for that ten individuals.  Hmmm... I am sure there are some young people of lets say 30 years that if you saved one for those 10, you have saved more life years...   Math can be abused.  (I won't even get into weighting it by average productivity / contribution to society - which takes place for most people before 65; with the exceptions that take an active interest in charitable activities in their retirement). 

 

Vaccination is as much about trying to get to the point of herd immunity, and having society return to some level of normalcy (for economic reasons) as it is about protecting those that are at risk. 

 

You don't seem to understand life expectancy statistics. Life expectancy of 78 years is at birth. 

If someone is already 77, their life expectancy is not 78, it is much higher. 

[bkkcanuck8]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You don't seem to understand life expectancy statistics. Life expectancy of 78 years is at birth. 

If someone is already 77, their life expectancy is not 78, it is much higher. 

Yes, it is arbitrary, just like someone picking 55+ is arbitrary.  Absurd misuse of math deserves and absurd misuse of math in response.

 

[Blumpie]

26 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

In Florida, which has the second-highest rate of new cases per capita after Louisiana, children's hospitals and staff are "overwhelmed," said Dr. Aileen Marty, an infectious disease expert at Florida International University. "The numbers of cases in our hospitals in children and our children's hospitals are completely overwhelmed," Marty told CNN's Jim Sciutto on Friday evening. "Our pediatricians, the nursing, the staff are exhausted, and the children are suffering. And it is absolutely devastating ... our children are very much affected. We've never seen numbers like this before," she said

This is good news.  The reason why it's good  news is people who were vaccinated  are going after herd  immunity  via vaccine, and those who are not are going after their immunity via their immunity system.

Everyone has been offered a vaccine that can accept it.  So the latter will get the disease over with and they can return back to normal.

It will happen in Thailand probably too.  Those who eventually don't want the vaccine will simply get infected.  Hope it works out for them.  

[webfact]

Thailand reports 19,603 new COVID-19 cases, 149 more deaths

 

Reuters file photo
        
Thailand on Monday (August 9) reported 19,603 new COVID-19 cases and 149 additional deaths over the past 24 hours.

 

Full story: https://aseannow.com/topic/1226859-thailand reports 19603 new-covid-19-cases-149-more-deaths/

 

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/Admin