So, how's China doing?

[cmarshall]

A month or two ago there was some discussion here about how China was going to fare against Covid-19 going forward.  Leaving aside the out-and-out China haters for whom all data from China is a lie, there was the group that was sure that the Delta variant would overwhelm China as it had some other countries.  My stated view at the time was that the Delta variant would only overwhelm countries that gave up trying to control it which at the time included the UK, the US (although changing under the new administration), and Brazil.  While the transmissibility of the Delta variation is apparently higher than the original wild version, the transmission vector itself, aerosols, hadn't changed and could be controlled effectively using the standard public health measures of testing, isolating positives, and contact tracing along with masks and social distancing.  While some countries like Thailand would fail to apply the public health measures with the same rigor as in the first instance, China would not fail to do so.  Therefore, I expected China to continue to control its epidemic effectively.

 

So, how did China do?  The short answer is: best in class.  New case count for China on August 5, 2021 was 533, all from Delta.  At the same time the US, with one fourth the population, is experiencing 100,000 new cases per day.  Because Delta transmits so quickly the authorities now trace not only those who have contacted infected persons, but also the contacts those people have themselves had.  Vietnam has been doing two-level contact tracing since the beginning.  But in some cases the spread has been so fast that it exceeds the capacity of their contact tracing system.  When the UK and Sweden reached that point last year, they just gave up on contact tracing altogether.  The Chinese response to the failure of contact tracing has been mass testing on a gargantuan scale that no other country has matched.  When Delta spread too quickly in Guangdong Province, for example,  the cities of Nanjing, Zhangjiajie, Zhengzhou, Wuhan and Yangzhou all have carried out citywide testing.  Nanjing, for example, had 200 cases and then tested all 9.3 million residents within two weeks.  By doing mass testing on this scale the Chinese government was able to avoid lockdowns and the economic hit that would have resulted.  

 

China also began its vaccination program in December.  As of Aug. 3 they have administered 1.7 billion doses.  

 

So, as I predicted, there is no risk that Covid will get out of hand or overwhelm health care facilities in China.

 

 

[internationalism]

good on them. They are now testing their entire population.

Still, what is the most important is vax - now they covered only with one jab.

They have some 5 of vax. Sinovac doesn't work for delta, sinopharm failed in 25% of those over 60 to rise antibodies even to a minimum level (recent hungarian studies). The rest might also not be good.

For over a year nobody expected thailand to be in situation it is now.

 

[cmarshall]

1 minute ago, internationalism said:

good on them. They are now testing their entire population.

Still, what is the most important is vax - now they covered only with one jab.

They have some 5 of vax. Sinovac doesn't work for delta, sinopharm failed in 25% of those over 60 to rise antibodies even to a minimum level (recent hungarian studies). The rest might also not be good.

For over a year nobody expected thailand to be in situation it is now.

 

Thailand lost the plot.  They relaxed public health standards when they should have re-imposed them and they let the high-so crowd get away with their nightclubs, etc. in addition to failing to secure vaccine supplies.

 

What is important is controlling the pandemic.  If vaccines do that, then fine.  Use vaccines.  If vaccines aren't available or too much of the population refuses to get the shot, then the Chinese model of widespread testing can control the epidemic perfectly well as we see, without shutting down the economy.  The trouble with the Western countries is that they want the epidemic to be controlled for them, without taking any responsibility for their own safety and that of others.  

[mfd101]

Thailand and many Western countries: used to individual & group self-indulgence, leads to lack of self-discipline, leads to loss of control of pandemic ...

 

Chinese authoritarianism: used to self-discipline both individually and at group levels, leads to ease of social/political control and watch out if you step out of line.

[internationalism]

if basic antigen test is $5-$90, pcr test $100, vax $10-30 per shot - what the point in extensive testing now, when different vax are already available?

Some countries started already booster, as well as kids.

Tests suppose to be done often. Some countries test medical personel weekly. In the UK kids at school testing 2x per week.

On top of it, it's easier to do a shot, than nasal swab.

China is exporting hundreds of millions of vax, which is great for covid diplomacy, but not doing enough second doses

 

[cmarshall]

17 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

Thailand and many Western countries: used to individual & group self-indulgence, leads to lack of self-discipline, leads to loss of control of pandemic ...

 

Chinese authoritarianism: used to self-discipline both individually and at group levels, leads to ease of social/political control and watch out if you step out of line.

Reasoning from stereotypes is superficial and just silly and just reinforces your own prejudices.   Non-authoritarian Australia and New Zealand are continuing to pursue the same zero case strategy as China with success.  It's more likely to be explained by the competence of the governments in question.  

 

Is it so hard to contemplate that, at least in this case, the Chinese government are vastly more competent and more committed to saving the lives of their citizens than the US, UK, Brazil, etc.?

[cmarshall]

5 minutes ago, internationalism said:

if basic antigen test is $5-$90, pcr test $100, vax $10-30 per shot - what the point in extensive testing now, when different vax are already available?

Some countries started already booster, as well as kids.

Tests suppose to be done often. Some countries test medical personel weekly. In the UK kids at school testing 2x per week.

On top of it, it's easier to do a shot, than nasal swab.

China is exporting hundreds of millions of vax, which is great for covid diplomacy, but not doing enough second doses

 

Nucleic acid testing in China costs between $0.88 and $1.88 per person.  That's still expensive for the mass testing that the Chinese are performing, but a lot cheaper than shutting the economy down, Wuhan-style.

 

The US has now achieved vaccination of 70% of the adult population and is now facing 100,000 new cases per day.  The US economy is also growing well, although that rate is slowing somewhat and in those red states with the anti-vax populations the economic hit is still greater.

 

The point is that with a competent government they use whatever method is necessary to shutdown the epidemic and they continue to succeed.  The Chinese will drop the mass testing only if it becomes clear that vaccination is stopping the virus.  That's the right approach.

 

If Biden had announce a 77-day lockdown on Jan. 20 with compensation for the losers, the Covid epidemic would be in the rear view mirror now.  Biden probably knows that, but is afraid the voters would never forgive him.  

[mfd101]

8 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Reasoning from stereotypes is superficial and just silly and just reinforces your own prejudices.   Non-authoritarian Australia and New Zealand are continuing to pursue the same zero case strategy as China with success.  It's more likely to be explained by the competence of the governments in question.  

 

Is it so hard to contemplate that, at least in this case, the Chinese government are vastly more competent and more committed to saving the lives of their citizens than the US, UK, Brazil, etc.?

Well the Kiwis are doing well because they're small and far far away, and the only threat they perceive (even in non-pandemic times!) comes from Oz.

 

As to Oz, they're struggling with undisciplined youthful behaviours in Sinnee & Melbin.

 

And as to the benevolence & warm feelings of the Beijing regime, the least said the better.

[cmarshall]

Just now, mfd101 said:

Well the Kiwis are doing well because they're small and far far away, and the only threat they perceive (even in non-pandemic times!) comes from Oz.

 

As to Oz, they're struggling with undisciplined youthful behaviours in Sinnee & Melbin.

 

And as to the benevolence & warm feelings of the Beijing regime, the least said the better.

I measure the benevolence and warm feelings of the Beijing regime in the number of lives they have saved.  The US has a confirmed Covid death count of 618,000 with the real number greater than 900,000.  China's confirmed count is 4,848.  Probably their true count is also higher, but not the 4 million that it would have been if the Beijing government had performed as with as much criminal indifference as the US government.

 

Australia, unruly youth or not, has a confirmed Covid death count of 943 or 3.72 per hundred thousand.  

 

The Chinese have had the greatest success in the world in controlling the epidemic despite that it is a poor country with per capita GDP of $9,917, far less than the OECD countries.  This is a truly impressive achievement.  If you want to console yourself that the China also has committed human rights abuses, then feel free to do so even if it is entirely irrelevant.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, internationalism said:

good on them. They are now testing their entire population.

Still, what is the most important is vax - now they covered only with one jab.

They have some 5 of vax. Sinovac doesn't work for delta, sinopharm failed in 25% of those over 60 to rise antibodies even to a minimum level (recent hungarian studies). The rest might also not be good.

For over a year nobody expected thailand to be in situation it is now.

 

It's not known how effective Sinovac is against the Delta variant, particularly in the case of protection against serious illness and death. Nor for that matter in the case of Sinopharm. No large scale clinical studies have been completed though some are in progress.

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

I measure the benevolence and warm feelings of the Beijing regime in the number of lives they have saved.  The US has a confirmed Covid death count of 618,000 with the real number greater than 900,000.  China's confirmed count is 4,848.  Probably their true count is also higher, but not the 4 million that it would have been if the Beijing government had performed as with as much criminal indifference as the US government.

 

Australia, unruly youth or not, has a confirmed Covid death count of 943 or 3.72 per hundred thousand.  

 

The Chinese have had the greatest success in the world in controlling the epidemic despite that it is a poor country with per capita GDP of $9,917, far less than the OECD countries.  This is a truly impressive achievement.  If you want to console yourself that the China also has committed human rights abuses, then feel free to do so even if it is entirely irrelevant.

It's true that China has so far been very successful against Covid. That's one of the advantages China has in being an Orwellian police state. For some, that's way too high a price to be paid.

And who knows what the future will bring?

China Covid outbreak linked to Delta variant weighs on economy

Worst surge in infections since start of pandemic puts recovery under pressure

https://www.ft.com/content/3aaf239c-0ee0-416a-a4c8-043d574e907c

[MrJ2U]

"China COVID-19 cases rise as Delta variant challenges Beijing"

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-covid-19-new-cases-delta-variant-aug-10-2102961

 

I wouldn't gloat to much.

[Denim]

48 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

the Chinese government are vastly more competent and more committed to saving the lives of their citizens

Their treatment of the Uighurs and  Kazahks ( Chinese citizens ) makes a mockery of that statement.

 

What the Chinese communist party is committed  to is its own self preservation and embroiling it's citizens in it's own expansionist ideals .  It's belligerent claims to the entire South China Sea and its avowed intent to conquer Taiwan by force hardly demonstrates a high regard for the welfare of it's own citizens who may end up having to pay in blood for these acts of aggression .

 

It was the lack of Chinese transparency in the first place that got control of covid off to such a bad start, arresting whistle blowers and trying to cover things up.

 

It does not console me in any way that the CCP continues in its flagrant human rights abuses against it's own citizens but if you want praise the CCPs response to the pandemic it has given the world then feel free to do so , even if it is entirely irrelevant.

 

[cmarshall]

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

It's true that China has so far been very successful against Covid. That's one of the advantages China has in being an Orwellian police state. For some, that's way too high a price to be paid.

And who knows what the future will bring?

China Covid outbreak linked to Delta variant weighs on economy

Worst surge in infections since start of pandemic puts recovery under pressure

https://www.ft.com/content/3aaf239c-0ee0-416a-a4c8-043d574e907c

The FT article cited is singularly unimpressive.  The writer makes the claim that Covid is slowing China's economic growth without ever showing how that would work.  It's true that exports declined from June's spectacular 32% year over year growth to July's still very high 19% increase.  That might turn into a slowdown in exports at some point, but it doesn't look like it yet.  It also might be due to the fact that by summer of 2020 the Chinese economy was already rebounding at a strong clip from the epidemic.

 

The article cites only one number for new Covid cases which was for Aug. 9, 2021 and amounted to 94 persons!  It beggars belief that anyone could imagine that a new case rate of less than one hundred per day could have any impact at all on an economy of 1.54 billion people.  Frankly, 94 new cases per day equals zero.

 

The writer cites an increase in factory gate, i..e. wholesale, prices of 9% in July year over year.  Inflation is usually an effect of too much economic activity, not too little.  He doesn't explain how an increase in wholesale inflation, even if sustained, points to an economic slowdown.

 

There is one quote in the article that does suggest a causal link between a slowdown in China's growth and a spread of Covid, but not in China:

 

Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Japanese bank Mizuho, said the global spread of the Delta variant “might have dented global demand”, which would stand to affect Chinese exports.

 

This article does not survive a critical reading, in my opinion.

[cmarshall]

36 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

"China COVID-19 cases rise as Delta variant challenges Beijing"

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-covid-19-new-cases-delta-variant-aug-10-2102961

 

I wouldn't gloat to much.

Textbook case of use of statistics to induce innumeracy in the reader:

 

BEIJING: China's COVID-19 cases hit a seven-month high on Tuesday (Aug 10), after a cluster at a test site drove up numbers as the Delta variant challenges Beijing's grip on the pandemic.

 

The seven-month high on Tuesday was 144 cases in a country of 1.4 billion.  

[cmarshall]

15 minutes ago, Denim said:

Their treatment of the Uighurs and  Kazahks ( Chinese citizens ) makes a mockery of that statement.

 

What the Chinese communist party is committed  to is its own self preservation and embroiling it's citizens in it's own expansionist ideals .  It's belligerent claims to the entire South China Sea and its avowed intent to conquer Taiwan by force hardly demonstrates a high regard for the welfare of it's own citizens who may end up having to pay in blood for these acts of aggression .

 

It was the lack of Chinese transparency in the first place that got control of covid off to such a bad start, arresting whistle blowers and trying to cover things up.

 

It does not console me in any way that the CCP continues in its flagrant human rights abuses against it's own citizens but if you want praise the CCPs response to the pandemic it has given the world then feel free to do so , even if it is entirely irrelevant.

Yes, the Chinese treatment of the Uighurs is a deplorable human rights abuse.  Its relevance to the handling of the Covid epidemic, however, is zero.

 

But since you are so concerned with global human rights abuses, here's a quick quiz you will enjoy:  What is the only country to kill up to a million innocent people since Pol Pot established that standard of atrocity in Cambodia in the mid 1970's?  Hint:  it wasn't China and it wasn't Russia.

[BobinBKK]

The US is transparent with it's reporting whereas China only tells you what they want you to believe.

[cmarshall]

1 minute ago, BobinBKK said:

The US is transparent with it's reporting whereas China only tells you what they want you to believe.

Which is why the confirmed Covid death count for the US is 618,000 while the true number, estimated from excess deaths, is greater than 900,000?

[1FinickyOne]

A question for the knowledgable [and others too]

 

If the people w/vax can carry the virus but not get sick or badly ill, feeling confident in their good health, might they unwittingly become super delta spreaders? 

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

The FT article cited is singularly unimpressive.  The writer makes the claim that Covid is slowing China's economic growth without ever showing how that would work.  It's true that exports declined from June's spectacular 32% year over year growth to July's still very high 19% increase.  That might turn into a slowdown in exports at some point, but it doesn't look like it yet.  It also might be due to the fact that by summer of 2020 the Chinese economy was already rebounding at a strong clip from the epidemic.

 

The article cites only one number for new Covid cases which was for Aug. 9, 2021 and amounted to 94 persons!  It beggars belief that anyone could imagine that a new case rate of less than one hundred per day could have any impact at all on an economy of 1.54 billion people.  Frankly, 94 new cases per day equals zero.

 

The writer cites an increase in factory gate, i..e. wholesale, prices of 9% in July year over year.  Inflation is usually an effect of too much economic activity, not too little.  He doesn't explain how an increase in wholesale inflation, even if sustained, points to an economic slowdown.

 

There is one quote in the article that does suggest a causal link between a slowdown in China's growth and a spread of Covid, but not in China:

 

Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Japanese bank Mizuho, said the global spread of the Delta variant “might have dented global demand”, which would stand to affect Chinese exports.

 

This article does not survive a critical reading, in my opinion.

China's "spectacular growth" in in fact a statistical artefact due to its actual decline during the previous year:
"China’s economy grew 7.9 per cent year on year in the second quarter, boosted by a low base in 2020 when the country was grappling with the pandemic, and 1.3 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis."

And no, inflation isn't necessarily due to rapid growth. In fact, the inflation in commodities is due to bottlenecks in production which are to be expected when emerging from a partial economic shutdown. Similar inflation is to be found throughout Western economies as well. It just affects china more because manufacturing plays a bigger role in its economy.

As for citing only 94 cases, there was a link right there to an article entitled: 

China hunts down Delta variant as Covid outbreak spreads to 14 provinces

The fact that Covid is present in 14 provinces at the same time is unprecedented for China.

And given that the populace is vaccinated either with Sinovac or Sinopharm, it unclear how well protected the people of China are.from the Delta variant.

 

 

[MrJ2U]

1 hour ago, JayClay said:

 

 

53 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Textbook case of use of statistics to induce innumeracy in the reader:

 

BEIJING: China's COVID-19 cases hit a seven-month high on Tuesday (Aug 10), after a cluster at a test site drove up numbers as the Delta variant challenges Beijing's grip on the pandemic.

 

The seven-month high on Tuesday was 144 cases in a country of 1.4 billion.  

 

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by MrJ2U

[MrJ2U]

55 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Textbook case of use of statistics to induce innumeracy in the reader:

 

BEIJING: China's COVID-19 cases hit a seven-month high on Tuesday (Aug 10), after a cluster at a test site drove up numbers as the Delta variant challenges Beijing's grip on the pandemic.

 

The seven-month high on Tuesday was 144 cases in a country of 1.4 billion.  

 

Whatever.

 

Usual denier of truth.

 

Its as bad as Wuhan.

So much for your convaluted reasoning.

 

don't some Qanon tin hat theories.  It only makes you look more ignorant than you already are.

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by MrJ2U

[RubbaJohnny]

1 hour ago, Denim said:

abuses against it's own citizens

You are correct these are egregious abuses, however teh Han do need perceive other races as equals ,

Tibetans, Mongols, Uighurs, Dai, etc discrimatory  behaviour is not unique, discrimination against blacks continues worldwide and was legal in USA in my lifetime,

 

Meanwhile not far from the mother of parliaments signs saying No Irish No Blacks no dogs were common in public and many white  Americans Australians,English people still feel superior to others as anyone who has had contact with them will aver.

 

 

 

However this far ar fewer have died here per million 91 than UK /US nearer TWENTY times higher mortality.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

The vax rollout has been tardy and chaotic but 27th in the world for 20th largest nation by population indicates it could be a lot worse. like Belgium , Czechia or Peru where fatalities are 500 times higher than LOS , so lets count our blessings, protect ourselves and hope our hosts tolerate us during this economic tragedy.

 

For Christians the death of Christ is marked , for Palestinians the Naqba for the Hebrews their Holocaast here the thing they worship MONEY is being sacrificed before our eyes.

 

I fear some may see old poor redshirts to the wall as a win.and as the economic pain increase xenophobic politicians may well use the poor migrant workers and foreign residents as whipping boys for their humiliation and failures. The idea of immunity reveals the mindset of criminal plea bargain or prep to do a runner. A cultural tip ask yourself which do they care about most , loss of face or money?

Edited August 11, 2021 by RubbaJohnny
typo

[cmarshall]

37 minutes ago, placeholder said:

China's "spectacular growth" in in fact a statistical artefact due to its actual decline during the previous year:
"China’s economy grew 7.9 per cent year on year in the second quarter, boosted by a low base in 2020 when the country was grappling with the pandemic, and 1.3 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis."

And no, inflation isn't necessarily due to rapid growth. In fact, the inflation in commodities is due to bottlenecks in production which are to be expected when emerging from a partial economic shutdown. Similar inflation is to be found throughout Western economies as well. It just affects china more because manufacturing plays a bigger role in its economy.

As for citing only 94 cases, there was a link right there to an article entitled: 

China hunts down Delta variant as Covid outbreak spreads to 14 provinces

The fact that Covid is present in 14 provinces at the same time is unprecedented for China.

And given that the populace is vaccinated either with Sinovac or Sinopharm, it unclear how well protected the people of China are.from the Delta variant.

Every economy in the world that is growing in 2021 is doing so by comparison with the low base of the Covid recession in 2020, very much including the US.

 

Yes, it's true that the current inflation in the US, for example, is due to supply chain disruption not something that is likely to cause persistent inflation, such as a wage-price spiral.  The writer neither identifes a cause for the wholesale inflation that he reports, nor suggests why the current inflation should lead to any slowdown in the economy no matter what its cause.  

 

The FT writer seems to be looking for any reason to sniff out Chinese failure either in managing Covid or the economy and yet never gives any actual reason to be pessimistic about either.  In the end he quotes Goldman, Sachs's prediction that in any case the upswing the economy will resume by the end of the year.  So, what is the point of the article other than to suggest failure where there isn't any evidence to support it?  94 or 144 cases is completely insignificant no matter how many provinces it is spread across.

[Virt]

On 8/11/2021 at 6:27 AM, 1FinickyOne said:

A question for the knowledgable [and others too]

 

If the people w/vax can carry the virus but not get sick or badly ill, feeling confident in their good health, might they unwittingly become super delta spreaders? 

Still important to get the vaccine not only to minimize your risk of severe illness and submission to hospitals, but also to mimimize the risk of spreading it, if you are one of those vaccinated people that get covid 19.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html

 

"However, like other variants, the amount of virus produced by Delta breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people also goes down faster than infections in unvaccinated people. This means fully vaccinated people are likely infectious for less time than unvaccinated people.

[sqwakvfr]

I believe everything the Chinese Government says??? and 555. Therefore, the Corona Virus was manufactured at Fort Detrick in Maryland.  The Virus was smuggled into China during the 2019 Military Games by US Army Reservist Maatje Benassi(her life has now become a nightmare and for some time she was in hiding.  Even CNN did a story on her).

 

This is the absurd story that has been floated by certain members of the Chinese Government.  The same government that publishes these great Covid 19 numbers and refuses to grant access to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.  "Nothing to see here, just move along".  

 

Congratulations China, you are the global leader in Covid 19 response.??? and 5555555.  Now back to Reality.  

[Virt]

3 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

I believe everything the Chinese Government says??? and 555. Therefore, the Corona Virus was manufactured at Fort Detrick in Maryland.  The Virus was smuggled into China during the 2019 Military Games by US Army Reservist Maatje Benassi(her life has now become a nightmare and for some time she was in hiding.  Even CNN did a story on her).

 

This is the absurd story that has been floated by certain members of the Chinese Government.  The same government that publishes these great Covid 19 numbers and refuses to grant access to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.  "Nothing to see here, just move along".  

 

Congratulations China, you are the global leader in Covid 19 response.??? and 5555555.  Now back to Reality.  

Well i'm not sure we will ever find out where it originates from, but it seems that it allready was in Italy in September 2019.

Months before the outbreak as we know it.

Article from Lancett.

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3883274

[cmarshall]

On 8/11/2021 at 11:27 AM, 1FinickyOne said:

A question for the knowledgable [and others too]

 

If the people w/vax can carry the virus but not get sick or badly ill, feeling confident in their good health, might they unwittingly become super delta spreaders? 

This is a concern I have wondered about for a long time with respect to Aids.  Since there is no vaccine for HIV, but only treatments that keeps the infected person alive without eliminating the infection and since the anti-viral cocktail used is extremely expensive so that it can never be used widely in poor areas like Africa, for instance, then that means that the HIV virus will never mutate into non-lethality (like the mumps and measles viruses have in the past) and that the first world will therefore constantly be re-infecting the poor areas of the world with updated variants of the HIV virus.  Probably the evolution to non-lethality takes centuries rather than years, so it may be a question of only theoretical interest.  Nevertheless, to the extent that the availability of effective Aids treatment in the rich countries that does not cure would tend to exacerbate the Aids pandemic in poor regions.

 

It does seem that Covid vaccines might raise the same question, although it has yet to be established how great the risk of transmission is in breakthrough infections.

[1FinickyOne]

31 minutes ago, Virt said:

Still important to get the vaccine not only to minimize your risk of severe illness and submission to hospitals, but also to mimimize the risk of spreading it, if you are one of those vaccinated people that get covid 19.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html

 

"However, like other variants, the amount of virus produced by Delta breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people also goes down faster than infections in unvaccinated people. This means fully vaccinated people are likely infectious for less time than unvaccinated people.

absolutely... might save my life but would it increase the risk of my spreading it... ? 

[sqwakvfr]

" Italy in September 2019."

 

China and Italy have had a long standing business relationship in the Fashion Industry.  Italians designs are often manufactured in China.  I believe in the recent past lots of travel between Wuhan and Milan.  No direct evidence of any causal link but coincidence?