World Bank cuts Thai GDP growth outlook to 1% this year

[webfact]

A woman walks past closed shops at the Thanon Mitr Market, amid the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Bangkok, Thailand, January 19, 2021. REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/Files

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy is forecast to grow 1% this year, down from the 2.2% projected in July, hit by a spike in COVID-19 cases and a delayed reopening to visitors, the World Bank said on Tuesday, as the country fights its biggest virus outbreak to date.

 

Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy contracted 6.1% last year, its deepest slump in more than two decades, with the crucial tourism sector devastated by the impact of the pandemic.

 

The economy is now expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in 2023, Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior World Bank economist for Thailand, told a virtual briefing.

 

"The economic recovery to pre-COVID levels will be a year slower than previously expected in 2022," he said, adding that was based on an assumption that Thailand would reach 70% vaccination rates in the first half of 2022.

 

After recording 40 million foreign tourists in 2019, Thailand is now expected to receive only 160,000 this year, down from the 600,000 arrivals projected in July, Kiatipong said.

 

Tourist arrivals are seen at 1.7 million next year, when the economy is forecast to grow 3.6%, he added.

Exports and fiscal measures had provided support in the meantime and the World Bank backed the government's lifting of the public debt ceiling to help the economy, Kiatipong said.

 

The World Bank' 2021 economic outlook compared with growth of 1.3% predicted by the finance ministry and 0.7% by the central bank.

 

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(Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Editing by Ed Davies)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-09-28

 

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[ivor bigun]

so how many baht to the pound in coming months i wonder.

[petermik]

6 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

so how many baht to the pound in coming months i wonder.

The teflon Baht will hang on in there.....mores the pity

[timendres]

25 minutes ago, webfact said:

The economy is now expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in 2023, Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior World Bank economist for Thailand, told a virtual briefing.

That pretty much must assume that tourism will return to prior levels, which it will not.

[Metapod]

thailand growing while locked down? i doubt it

[zzaa09]

The World Bank.

There's a trusted and respected outfit.

[spidermike007]

A stunningly ridiculous bag of lies. Likely negative 13%. With near 40% unemployment, businesses all over the nation shuttered, and tourism gone, these kinds of smelly fish are not edible. Not sure what the agenda is here, but it is incredibly disengenuous, and positively fake. 

[spidermike007]

The economy is now expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in 2023, Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior World Bank economist for Thailand, told a virtual briefing.

 

Predicting a post Covid economy for a nation that was hugely dependent on a grossly sabotaged tourism and sex industry, is likely to have the same accuracy level of guessing the winning numbers for the  upcoming mega millions in the US, when it tops $100 million. 

 

Sheer ridiculousness at best. Stunning foolhardiness is more appropriate a description for these absolute fools. 

 

[RichardColeman]

Be lucky to be above zero if they are still banking on some tourism to lift it. Seems pretty obvious it will not grow as they cannot make up the loss of Q1 tourism last year !

 

Just a shame the people in Thailand making these daft predictions every year are not sacked for incompetence.

 

Frightening thought though is the PM will choose to have an election as Thailand hits recovery of 25% GDP with tourists returning, claiming he turned the economy round

[BritManToo]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The economy is now expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in 2023, Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior World Bank economist for Thailand, told a virtual briefing.

Seems unlikely to me ........ but what do I know?

How do I apply for the senior World Bank economist Job?

 

[mfd101]

21 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Just a shame the people in Thailand making these daft predictions every year are not sacked for incompetence.

They would be sacked if they provided accurate figures.

 

Most obviously the figures for unemployment (& underemployment) which are always the world's marvel at less than 1%. But which observation in any Surin village would suggest must have been around 20% or 30% in the 9 years I've either lived here or been a regular visitor.

[Scrotobike]

5 hours ago, Metapod said:

thailand growing while locked down? i doubt it

It is from a lower base - GDP shrank last year. Sort of a poor weak rebound

[Soikhaonoiken]

Another propaganda report, to make the world think the economy is doing OK,.... The only thing that the world bank is doing is kidding themselves.... 

[zzaa09]

3 hours ago, Soikhaonoiken said:

Another propaganda report, to make the world think the economy is doing OK,.... The only thing that the world bank is doing is kidding themselves.... 

Hasn't been OK for some time and doesn't look promising on the horizon.

[RubbaJohnny]

18 hours ago, timendres said:

That pretty much must assume that tourism will return to prior levels, which it will not.

Plus many of the long term expates I know were regular visitors earlier for work or pleasure.Then long breaks wnters etc and finally retirement to the then land of smiles where , relaxed border bounces made everything possible and up to you.

 

Once fished from the pool by ladies needing housing they settled down happily .

Spent millions houses, cars, golf, yachts , entertainment jolly trips to IMmi keeping the fotocopy and rubber stamp industry vibrant.Dining out , paying prodigous tax on alcohol and similar pleasures.

 

Who will replace them, The Lao divemasters, Russian yogic influencers, Sino time share touts who will make up for all this, big spenders from India?