Can anyone explain if their is any logic to the government protocols to prevent covid.

[Longwood50]

3 hours ago, Tony125 said:

Right ! As the music gatherers will be wearing masks  while the drinkers will be sitting at tables or bar counter no masks talking/yelling, shouting  and spreading droplets all over the bar.

I guess this must be the exception since I "think" I see some of those music gatherers not wearing masks. 

The Youtube video seems to indicate a few others as well. 



 

 

Edited November 13, 2021 by Longwood50

[khunPer]

They can't explain the Covid-prevention's logic either in my otherwise normally considered fairly developed Scandinavian home country, so how would one expect the similar regulations to be logic here...

[Longwood50]

1 minute ago, khunPer said:

They can't explain the Covid-prevention's logic either in my otherwise normally considered fairly developed Scandinavian home country,

I agree.  The statistics show there are countries that border each other with identical protocols and yet varying covid infection rates.  You have states in the USA like North Dakota, South Dakota and Alaska with very few people per sq km with high rates, and areas like Washington DC with 11,000 people per km with low rates.  You can point to states with elderly populations with low rates of infection.  

All of the stats show that it is clear as mud as to what if anything works.  Even high rates of covid vaccine such as in Belgium still result in high rates of covid infection. 

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Longwood50 said:

Do you ever make a cohesive statement.  You argued that the reason that Luxemburg had a higher covid infection rate was "concentration" of people.  Guess what, that is exactly what urban centers are, a concentration of people.  Given that Sweden has more and larger concentrations of people hence using your logic they should have a higher covid infection rate.  

Conversely I point out that the states in the USA with some of the highest concentrations of people such as Washington DC and Maryland have low covid infection rates versus Alaska with only 1 person per square mile has a high covid infection rate which pretty well debunks your population density thought process. 

As to your shift to "vaccination rates"  Belgium's vaccination rate is notably higher than neighboring Germany but Belgium's covid infection rate is double Germany.  Care to make another off the wall wild A** assumption to justify your cockamamy assertion as to why Sweden's rate of Covid is not markedly is no markedly higher than most of Europe.  

We don't know why Finlands, Norways, and Denmarks rate is markedly lower.  Nor do we know why Belgiums, the Netherlands, Luxenburg and Polands rates are all markedly higher than Germany.  Just as we don't know why Estonia only 82 KM from Finland has a much higher covid rate.  

But one thing for sure is it isn't about masks, quarantines, curfews, no alcohol, closed pubs, etc.  If those were truly effective, Sweden's would be the worst covid rate and neighboring countries with "identical" covid protocols would have identical results.  THEY  DONT

And how do vaccination rates correlate with hospitalization and death rates?

 

You may not know way Sweden had such high rates but Dr. Andres Tegnell, the architect of Sweden's original covid protocols, disagrees with you.

"Now he has told Swedish public radio: "If we were to encounter the same disease again, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52903717

ANd your insistence that measures such as wearing face masks, is, at this juncture, utterly ridiculous.

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/09/surgical-masks-covid-19.html

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, one of the most prestigious public health research centers in the world, routinely takes mask wearing into account when projecting outcomes for covid. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

 

As for concentration of population. Just because city A has twice the population of city B that has nothing to do with the population density of city A compared to City B. Houston has almost 3 times the population of San Francisco. Does that mean it's almost 3 times as densely populated? Quite the contrary San Francisco has over 4 times the population density of Houston.

 

What is Alaska's vaccination rate? I've answered this objection of yours many times before. 

 

 

 

[johng]

31 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

I guess this must be the exception since I "think" I see some of those music gatherers not wearing masks. 

Looks like almost 100%  not wearing a mask and lots of booze too ???? 

girl in red bra talks about "onlyfan"  not that i would know anything about that of course ????

[Used2LuvThailand]

On 11/10/2021 at 10:48 PM, Scott said:

The economies would have been devastated regardless.  It is simply too virulent to not have a major impact on the economies.  There were, and would have been more people sick at the same time.   The hospitals and medical facilities would have reached near total collapse (they did in some places even with mitigation).   People do not perform well when they are sick or have to attend to sick family members.  

 

I think economists and public health officials will, in time, offer us more insight on that issue.   Keep in mind the early measures were to 'flatten the curve', which was more about spreading out the infection and ensuring the medical resources were available to as many as possible.  

 

We also have to remember that with each passing month and year, more people move into the higher risk areas.  More people develop heart disease, diabetes, get cancer, need transplants and just plain get older.  

 

You are correct that those at the highest risk need to be proactive in protecting themselves.  I am fully vaccinated and have had my booster.  I still avoid indoor shopping, when possible and grocery shop early before the stores are busy and crowded.  I do so as fast as possible.  

We have to many people in congregate living facilities who at the dependent on younger people who may cause exposure.  

 

I don't fully agree with all your points, but in the end, unless vaccines and treatments are made available world wide, we will live with it until it burns through the entire world population.  Whether it will burn out or be reduced to embers that flare up occasionally remains to be seen.  

 

 

 

Analysis by anecdote.  Almost every single thing you mentioned has now been shown to be false and/or ineffective.

 

FYI, even a cursory review of the history of viral outbreaks would lead even a semi-literate person to understand that there are actually a few things that a government can't do.  Eradicating an endemic, highly-contagious respiratory virus isn't one of the capabilities that any government has.  Even with a very effective and safe vaccine (like with Covid), it took a worldwide campaign many decades to eradicate smallpox.  Another fun virus history fact....do you know who the last person to die of smallpox was?  A laboratory worker who caught it from a lab accident....oh wait...those don't happen.

 

 

[Scott]

21 minutes ago, Used2LuvThailand said:

Analysis by anecdote.  Almost every single thing you mentioned has now been shown to be false and/or ineffective.

 

FYI, even a cursory review of the history of viral outbreaks would lead even a semi-literate person to understand that there are actually a few things that a government can't do.  Eradicating an endemic, highly-contagious respiratory virus isn't one of the capabilities that any government has.  Even with a very effective and safe vaccine (like with Covid), it took a worldwide campaign many decades to eradicate smallpox.  Another fun virus history fact....do you know who the last person to die of smallpox was?  A laboratory worker who caught it from a lab accident....oh wait...those don't happen.

 

 

I'll wait for some credible sources for you economic figures.  But just to give you one little example, the meat packing plants were ordered to remain open during the pandemic.  They had massive outbreaks.  Production dropped, shortages occurred and prices rose.  But they never closed. 

 

Oh, and just to be clear, continue with the condescending, inflammatory remarks and you will be on suspension.  If you wish to discuss something, do so in a civil manner. 

[simon43]

16 hours ago, PETERTHEEATER said:

Who cares BRITTANY'S FREE! ???? I feel like all my birthdays have come at once.......????

I didn't even know they were seeking autonomy from the rest of France.... ????

[Longwood50]

So are large gatherings with people drinking, socializing, a problem or not? 

 

[placeholder]

17 hours ago, Used2LuvThailand said:

Analysis by anecdote.  Almost every single thing you mentioned has now been shown to be false and/or ineffective.

 

FYI, even a cursory review of the history of viral outbreaks would lead even a semi-literate person to understand that there are actually a few things that a government can't do.  Eradicating an endemic, highly-contagious respiratory virus isn't one of the capabilities that any government has.  Even with a very effective and safe vaccine (like with Covid), it took a worldwide campaign many decades to eradicate smallpox.  Another fun virus history fact....do you know who the last person to die of smallpox was?  A laboratory worker who caught it from a lab accident....oh wait...those don't happen.

 

 

Mistaken much?  What about the measles vaccine?  Measles is far more contagious than even the Delta variant of covid-19. Until a few clueless alarmists starting spread nonsense about it causing autism, it had been virtually eradicated in developed nations.

Also, what  we have now were the first response to covid vaccines. More vaccines are in the pipeline. A few very promising ones are administered by nasal spray. So the nasal passages will be especially immunized and make it much harder for the vaccine to spread. And there are others in the works. It's very early days to be claiming that stopping covid 19 is inevitably out of reach.

Edited November 14, 2021 by placeholder

[placeholder]

41 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Mistaken much?  What about the measles vaccine?  Measles is far more contagious than even the Delta variant of covid-19. Until a few clueless alarmists starting spread nonsense about it causing autism, it had been virtually eradicated in developed nations.

Also, what  we have now were the first response to covid vaccines. More vaccines are in the pipeline. A few very promising ones are administered by nasal spray. So the nasal passages will be especially immunized and make it much harder for the vaccine to spread. And there are others in the works. It's very early days to be claiming that stopping covid 19 is inevitably out of reach.

And smallpox,, too, which has been eradicated, is also transmitted through the air.

[Longwood50]

On 11/13/2021 at 4:33 PM, placeholder said:

And how do vaccination rates correlate with hospitalization and death rates?

Did anyone say anything about hospitalization and death Rates again you are deflecting. Do I think the vaccines help reduce that yes.  I specifically said covid infection rates. 


The vaccination rate of Alaska is 53.3% and has a population of 731,545 giving it a population density of 1 per square mile and has a covid infection rate of 191,150 per million  This compares to Washington DC whose vaccination rate is a whopping 64.6% and has a population of 692,686  giving it a population  density of 11,686 per square mile yet its covid infection rate is 92,626 per million.  Looking to Europe 

Your "theory" of vaccination rates shows that two of the countries with the highest covid vaccination rates Portugal and Spain have covid infection rates higher than Italy and much higher than Poland that p.s. has the lowest vaccination rate has a much lower covid rate than Portugal or Spain. But I know you are of the opinion that since Poland is not an "Iberian peninsula" country you can't compare them.

So lets try bordering countries where Belgium and the Netherlands surprise surprise have higher covid vaccination rates than bordering Germany and Luxexburge with an almost identical rate of covid vaccination has a covid infection rate double Germany.  

As previously stated the statistics show that there is no strong correlation between wearing masks, quarantines, vaccination rates, population density and the covid infection rate.    

To further prove that these are the 15 countries with the highest covid vaccination rate and the 15 countries with the lowest covid vaccination rate and their rates of covid infection per million.   Yep the correlation is those countries with the lowest rate of covid vaccination have the lowest rates of covid infection per million.  Even those with high rates of covid vaccination Spain and Cambodia have near identical vaccination rates but markedly different infection rates, the same is true for Quatar versus South Korea. 


I am shocked to see Washington D.C. a city with a population density nearly  20 times neighboring Maryland where 44% of the population is black and it is reported that 49% of blacks are obese, and yet it has the 5th lowest covid infection rate in the entire USA.   It just shows no one knows the why's and to postulate that somehow masks, quarantines, curfews, social distancing is doing something dramatic while clearly even the vaccines are not, is just pure conjecture.

Why?  who knows but surely all those theories about what effectively is a deterrent to covid infection are debunked by looking at the statistics world wide. 







https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=OWID_WRL

Edited November 14, 2021 by Longwood50

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Did anyone say anything about hospitalization and death Rates again you are deflecting. Do I think the vaccines help reduce that yes.  I specifically said covid infection rates. 


The vaccination rate of Alaska is 53.3% and has a population of 731,545 giving it a population density of 1 per square mile and has a covid infection rate of 191,150 per million  This compares to Washington DC whose vaccination rate is a whopping 64.6% and has a population of 692,686  giving it a population  density of 11,686 per square mile yet its covid infection rate is 92,626 per million.  Looking to Europe 

Your "theory" of vaccination rates shows that two of the countries with the highest covid vaccination rates Portugal and Spain have covid infection rates higher than Italy and much higher than Poland that p.s. has the lowest vaccination rate has a much lower covid rate than Portugal or Spain. But I know you are of the opinion that since Poland is not an "Iberian peninsula" country you can't compare them.

So lets try bordering countries where Belgium and the Netherlands surprise surprise have higher covid vaccination rates than bordering Germany and Luxexburge with an almost identical rate of covid vaccination has a covid infection rate double Germany.  

As previously stated the statistics show that there is no strong correlation between wearing masks, quarantines, vaccination rates, population density and the covid infection rate.    

To further prove that these are the 15 countries with the highest covid vaccination rate and the 15 countries with the lowest covid vaccination rate and their rates of covid infection per million.   Yep the correlation is those countries with the lowest rate of covid vaccination have the lowest rates of covid infection per million.  Even those with high rates of covid vaccination Spain and Cambodia have near identical vaccination rates but markedly different infection rates, the same is true for Quatar versus South Korea. 


I am shocked to see Washington D.C. a city with a population density nearly  20 times neighboring Maryland where 44% of the population is black and it is reported that 49% of blacks are obese, and yet it has the 5th lowest covid infection rate in the entire USA.   It just shows no one knows the why's and to postulate that somehow masks, quarantines, curfews, social distancing is doing something dramatic while clearly even the vaccines are not, is just pure conjecture.

Why?  who knows but surely all those theories about what effectively is a deterrent to covid infection are debunked by looking at the statistics world wide. 







https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=OWID_WRL

You are naively depending on the reporting of these various countries  or states to be comparable. The problem with that is that testing rates vary greatly from one country or state to another. So unless you account for how many tests are being done per capita, these statistics are meaningless. You would do well  go to this page of ourworldindata.org to get a better idea of the relation of the rate of testing to affects the accuracy of reported confirmed cases.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-models

 

Although I think that the second column where poor nations that do very little testing also report extremely low rates of infection, ought to have told you something.

 

There is also the following taken from the chart view of the Scale of Testing section. What does that tell you?

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states

Extremely poor countries do have the infrastructure to do adequate testing or have to money to afford it.

 

You can look at models comparing a country's  reported figures to what epidemiologists estimate. You'll note that there is an extremely high correlation between vaccination rates and infections. Just compare European countries with low rates of vaccinations against those with high rates. The correlation is huge and unmistakeable. 

 

 

[Longwood50]

21 hours ago, placeholder said:

. Just compare European countries with low rates of vaccinations against those with high rates. The correlation is huge and unmistakeable. 

I did, obviously you can't read 


Portugal and Spain have two of the three highest rates of covid vaccination and also are in the top quartile for covid infection rate.  Poland has the lowest covid vaccination rate and has a rate that is approximately 23% lower than Spain and Portugal  Greece has a rate of covid infection 25% less than Spain and Portugal but a rate of vaccination of only 60% compared% o Portugal's rate of 86.4% and  Spains  I don't know where you studies statistics but I suggest you didn't pass the course. 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2021 by Longwood50

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

I did, obviously you can't read

No, you didn't. The central and eastern members of the EU have much lower vaccination rates than those in the west. They also have a far higher rate of cases. Of course, if you depend on what those dubious governments report, then you might come to a different conclusion. Which is why I specifically recommended that you consult the page in ourworldindata.org that addresses the accuracy of various governments' reports. The correlation is overwhelmingly clear.

In addition to which, I decided to take a closer look at a single country, Germany, to see how rates varied by State. . What immediately became clear was that vaccination rate and population density correlated very strongly with case rates. Vaccination rates had a negative correlation and population densities had a positive correlation. 

I created a graphic drawn from 3 sources. Here are the links to those sources

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1195589/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccinations-number-federal-state-per-1000-germany/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105363/coronavirus-covid-19-infection-rate-by-federal-state-per-100000-people-germany/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_states_by_population_density

 

 

[placeholder]

24 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

I did, obviously you can't read 


Portugal and Spain have two of the three highest rates of covid vaccination and also are in the top quartile for covid infection rate.  Poland has the lowest covid vaccination rate and has a rate that is approximately 23% lower than Spain and Portugal  Greece has a rate of covid infection 25% less than Spain and Portugal but a rate of vaccination of only 60% compared% o Portugal's rate of 86.4% and  Spains  I don't know where you studies statistics but I suggest you didn't pass the course. 

 

 

I forgot to thank you for the childish insult. I think I'm going to forget to do that again.

[Longwood50]

27 minutes ago, placeholder said:

he central and eastern members of the EU have much lower vaccination rates than those in the west.

Do you always contort whatever statistics are shown to conform to your own opinion.  You go back and forth.  Population density is a factor but when it is demonstrated that Washington DC has by far the highest population density and a low covid rate, that doesn't count.  When it is pointed out that the Netherlands, and Belgium have higher covid vaccination rates than bordering Germany but substantially higher covid rates, then it is the "specific states" within Germany that count. 

For every factor, you can point to a "correlation" but then without much effort find numerous examples that show the opposite correlation.  Spain and Portugal have the highest covid vaccination rates and are amount the highest covid infection rates.  Neighboring Italy and Greece have lower vaccination rates and lower covid infection rates.  The same is true for the Netherlands and Belgium with have higher vaccination rates yet higher infection rates than Germany.  Likewise  France has a higher covid vaccination rate and higher covid infection rate than Germany or don't those borders count for you either since they don't match your predisposed opinion. 

[placeholder]

18 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Do you always contort whatever statistics are shown to conform to your own opinion.  You go back and forth.  Population density is a factor but when it is demonstrated that Washington DC has by far the highest population density and a low covid rate, that doesn't count.  When it is pointed out that the Netherlands, and Belgium have higher covid vaccination rates than bordering Germany but substantially higher covid rates, then it is the "specific states" within Germany that count. 

For every factor, you can point to a "correlation" but then without much effort find numerous examples that show the opposite correlation.  Spain and Portugal have the highest covid vaccination rates and are amount the highest covid infection rates.  Neighboring Italy and Greece have lower vaccination rates and lower covid infection rates.  The same is true for the Netherlands and Belgium with have higher vaccination rates yet higher infection rates than Germany.  Likewise  France has a higher covid vaccination rate and higher covid infection rate than Germany or don't those borders count for you either since they don't match your predisposed opinion. 

I specifically chose those countries with much lower vaccination rates and compared them to countries with higher vaccination rates. The differences are uniformly  huge.

 

Moreover to account for the fact that different countries have different testing regimes, different social distancing and masking rules, etc. I focused on one country: Germany. The correlation is overwhelmingly obvious.

[Longwood50]

On 11/15/2021 at 5:26 PM, placeholder said:

I specifically chose those countries with much lower vaccination rates and compared them to countries with higher vaccination rates. The differences are uniformly  huge.

 

Try again.  This time avoiding your predisposed bias. 

 

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7/figures/3

 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

 

Try again.  This time avoiding your predisposed bias. 

 

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7/figures/3

 

I'll see that study and up you many times that with this CDC listing of many studies ref vaccine effectiveness at stopping transmission. I guess if I am sufferinig from "predisposed bias", then I'm in good company.

 

https://view-hub.org/sites/default/files/2021-11/COVID19 VE Studies_Forest Plots_0.pdf

 

Here' a preprint study:

Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 transmission to household contacts during dominance of Delta variant (B.1.617.2), August-September 2021, the Netherlands

We estimated vaccine effectiveness against onward transmission by comparing secondary attack rates among household members between vaccinated and unvaccinated index cases, based on source and contact tracing data collected when Delta variant was dominant. Effectiveness of full vaccination of the index against transmission to fully vaccinated household contacts was 40% (95% confidence interval (CI) 20-54%), which is in addition to the direct protection of vaccination of contacts against infection. Effectiveness of full vaccination of the index against transmission to unvaccinated household contacts was 63% (95%CI 46-75%).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.14.21264959v1

 

Here's another study in preprint about the effect of a booster on transmission rates:

Third doses of COVID-19 vaccines reduce infection and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and could prevent future surges in some populations

Findings Eight months of waning reduced protection of the Pfizer vaccine against all infections from 80.0% (95% CI: 77% to 83%) to 60.4% (95% CI: 53% to 67%); a third dose (which increased neutralizing antibody titers 25.9-fold relative to levels after 8 months of waning) increased protection to 87.2% (95% CI: 83% to 91%). Increased protection against infection and transmission from third doses reduced R_t by 21% to 66% depending on vaccine coverage and previous infection and reduced R_t below 1 when vaccination coverage was high or contact rates were well below pre-pandemic levels.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.25.21265500v1

 

 

Edited November 18, 2021 by placeholder

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

 

Try again.  This time avoiding your predisposed bias. 

 

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7/figures/3

 

 

 

 

I think you overlooked something that might be a bit significant about the evidence you offered: it appears in the correspondence section of the European Journal of Epidemiology.  Like the Letters to the Editor section in a newspaper. It was not submitted as research to be published. To date, I can find no evidence that it's in preprint  anywhere.

Edited November 18, 2021 by placeholder

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

 

Try again.  This time avoiding your predisposed bias. 
 

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7/figures/3

 

 

Here are a study in preprint from some researchers at Oxford also suffering from "predisposed bias".

The impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on Alpha & Delta variant transmission

Vaccination reduces transmission of Delta, but by less than the Alpha variant. The impact of vaccination decreased over time. Factors other than PCR Ct values at diagnosis are important in understanding vaccine-associated transmission reductions

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v2

[Scott]

It's not the number of vaccinated people that affect the spread, it is the number of UNVACCINATED people that drive infections.  

 

Until vaccination rates reach very high levels for everyone, including children, it is the unvaccinated who will be at greatest risk.  

 

[Longwood50]

11 hours ago, Scott said:

It's not the number of vaccinated people that affect the spread, it is the number of UNVACCINATED people that drive infections.  

 

I am not sure I understand the difference.  Wouldn't the percentage of vaccinated people dictate the percentage of unvaccinated.  

Now I am vaccinated and would encourage everyone to do so.  With that said, a look at states in the USA and countries in Europe those often high vaccination rates and high rates of covid infection.  

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

See the attached study by Harvard university showing no strong correlation.  

 

 

 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Longwood50 said:

I am not sure I understand the difference.  Wouldn't the percentage of vaccinated people dictate the percentage of unvaccinated.  

Now I am vaccinated and would encourage everyone to do so.  With that said, a look at states in the USA and countries in Europe those often high vaccination rates and high rates of covid infection.  

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

See the attached study by Harvard university showing no strong correlation.  

 

 

 

The link goes to the letter in the European Journal of Epidemiology. And I see you have no answer for the many many citations of studies cited by the CDC that show a relationship between vaccinations and transmission of covid. Nor to the 2 studies currently in preprint, one of which shows the same, and the other that addresses the question of reducing transmission via a booster. You're way outnumbered.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

I am not sure I understand the difference.  Wouldn't the percentage of vaccinated people dictate the percentage of unvaccinated.  

Now I am vaccinated and would encourage everyone to do so.  With that said, a look at states in the USA and countries in Europe those often high vaccination rates and high rates of covid infection.  

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

See the attached study by Harvard university showing no strong correlation.  

 

 

 

Here's a nice summary (riddled with "pre-disposed bias", of course) from The New Scientist about how the vaccines slow transmission.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2294250-how-much-less-likely-are-you-to-spread-covid-19-if-youre-vaccinated/

 

[Scott]

7 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

I am not sure I understand the difference.  Wouldn't the percentage of vaccinated people dictate the percentage of unvaccinated.  

Now I am vaccinated and would encourage everyone to do so.  With that said, a look at states in the USA and countries in Europe those often high vaccination rates and high rates of covid infection.  

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

See the attached study by Harvard university showing no strong correlation.  

 

Virtually no place has come close to the level of vaccination to reach herd immunity.  Some estimates are in the neighborhood of a 90% vaccination rate due to the high level of transmissibility of Delta.   Since we are in the earliest phases of being able to vaccinate children, we have a very long way to go.   

 

In areas with high vaccine rates, it is still the unvaccinated that are the highest risk and the most likely to be spreading -- if for no other reason than there infection rates will be higher and they are likely to be infectious longer. 

 

It is also known that there is still a need to use other mitigating efforts such as masking and social distancing.  

[Longwood50]

16 hours ago, Scott said:

Virtually no place has come close to the level of vaccination to reach herd immunity

There is no correlation between level of vaccine and covid infection rates.  Portugal has the highest level and Spain the third highest level of vaccination and yet are among the highest level per million of Covid infection.  Germany has a much lower level of vaccination than bordering Belgium and the Netherlands and those two countries have substantially higher levels of Covid infection. 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=THA

I am vaccinated and would encourage all to do so.  However though I was hopeful that that vaccines would be an effective preventative they appear to have the most benefit from reducing the severity of the virus if contracted.  





I am afraid that Covid will be just like the flu.  Despite decades of having vaccines, on average 9% of the entire world contracts the flu each year.  The best solution may be with drugs and other treatments to administer to patients to contract covid to mitigate the severity of covid. 

 

 

 

[Scott]

7 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

There is no correlation between level of vaccine and covid infection rates.  Portugal has the highest level and Spain the third highest level of vaccination and yet are among the highest level per million of Covid infection.  Germany has a much lower level of vaccination than bordering Belgium and the Netherlands and those two countries have substantially higher levels of Covid infection. 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=THA

I am vaccinated and would encourage all to do so.  However though I was hopeful that that vaccines would be an effective preventative they appear to have the most benefit from reducing the severity of the virus if contracted.  





I am afraid that Covid will be just like the flu.  Despite decades of having vaccines, on average 9% of the entire world contracts the flu each year.  The best solution may be with drugs and other treatments to administer to patients to contract covid to mitigate the severity of covid.

You may well be right about Covid becoming endemic and possibly seasonal.  But with regard to the spread, it is still largely the unvaccinated driving the spread, at least from what I am able ascertain from various sources.   We have to remember that in many areas up to 20-25% of the population is children who haven't received the vaccine and we know infection rates are high among young people.  

 

Covid comes and goes in waves, it appears to spike, then burn itself out and level off.  This is probably driven by a number of factors.  Those spikes are driven by the unvaccinated and until we reach a very high rate of vaccination, we will see it continue.  We will also see the affects of waning immunity on elderly and immunocompromised.

 

With the elderly and those with underlying conditions, breakthrough cases are more common and more serious.

 

What we are learning is that we may have to continue with other mitigation efforts, like social distancing and masks.  It's also clear we have a lot to learn about how to control this virus and what works and what doesn't.  

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8 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

There is no correlation between level of vaccine and covid infection rates.  Portugal has the highest level and Spain the third highest level of vaccination and yet are among the highest level per million of Covid infection.  Germany has a much lower level of vaccination than bordering Belgium and the Netherlands and those two countries have substantially higher levels of Covid infection. 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=THA

I am vaccinated and would encourage all to do so.  However though I was hopeful that that vaccines would be an effective preventative they appear to have the most benefit from reducing the severity of the virus if contracted.  





I am afraid that Covid will be just like the flu.  Despite decades of having vaccines, on average 9% of the entire world contracts the flu each year.  The best solution may be with drugs and other treatments to administer to patients to contract covid to mitigate the severity of covid. 

 

 

 

Do you think invoking that one study repeatedly is going to establish its authority. It was published in the correspondence section of a journal. It is not peer reviewed. I connect to a CDC tally of many studies showing that vaccination effects transmission. Why do you believe that one non-peer reviewed study trumps all of them? Give it up.