SURVEY: Omicron--Dangerous, Worrisome or Overblown?

[codemonkey]

24 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

60% weekly trend increase 

Doesn't appear too dramatic in this chart, Apparently World of Data reports 36 covid deaths and 24,785 new covid cases  on 12/16/2021 in RSA, during that same period estimated 175 persons died of fentanyl poisoning in the US.  A little context for you.

And, potentially promising new covid treatment pending, think it's called paxlovid. May not need the 3rd, 4th, 5th, nth booster.

No sarcasm, just advising and guiding you as you _appear seem confused.

Edited December 18, 2021 by codemonkey

[Bluetongue]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

You truly believe there's been no deaths in South Africa due to Omicron despite the official deaths happening there daily including a 60% weekly trend increase 

 

However seeing as you've already resorted to sarcasm I'll leave it there with you..............

So not commenting on the comments. But some context for those SA figures. Deaths are indeed up, weekly trend over 100% between Nov 22 and now. Cases however are up about 350% between Nov 8 and Dec 3. The jury is still out I reckon as to exactly how much more or less serious the variant is. So too early to argue that one in my opinion, have seen some experts say it's worse and some not.

[Chomper Higgot]

14 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

So not commenting on the comments. But some context for those SA figures. Deaths are indeed up, weekly trend over 100% between Nov 22 and now. Cases however are up about 350% between Nov 8 and Dec 3. The jury is still out I reckon as to exactly how much more or less serious the variant is. So too early to argue that one in my opinion, have seen some experts say it's worse and some not.

There is another issue.

 

Omicron exists alongside Delta and presumably Alpha too.

 

Therefore patients presenting COVID symptoms may be infected with any of the currently circulating variants.

 

The outcome of any infection nor the danger of an infected person cannot be assumed lower risk.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

25 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

So not commenting on the comments. But some context for those SA figures. Deaths are indeed up, weekly trend over 100% between Nov 22 and now. Cases however are up about 350% between Nov 8 and Dec 3. The jury is still out I reckon as to exactly how much more or less serious the variant is. So too early to argue that one in my opinion, have seen some experts say it's worse and some not.

Yep, probably a fair assessment there, making predictions when at this initial stage is foolhardy until there is clearer evidence either way. There appears clear evidence of its higher transmissibility and vaccine resistance I think everyone agree's on that currently. 

 

If I had to make the scales tip one way I am personally going for slightly less virulent based on a study from Hong Kong that suggests it does not affect the lungs quite so much but I'll probably be wrong...lol. That said there are other studies that say its the same severity as Delta such as the latest from Imperial College London. Either way the sheer numbers will create problems for health services.

 

If we take the UK the majority of people getting it so far are the super sociable 20 - 30 year olds who are nearly all vaccinated, not yet affected many elderly but hospital admissions are on the rise, small numbers so far but a jump from 16 to 65 in one day for those with sequenced Omicron a possible sign of things to come. 

 

The UK/US will in my opinion be a far better barometer to this with reliable info coming out within the next few weeks.

[Oblomov]

3 hours ago, partington said:

This is a complete misunderstanding.  Colds are caused by many different types of virus - there are literally about 200 - only about 20% of which belong the the type coronavirus. This is the major reason why "colds" evade a simple remedy - you can't develop a vaccine against hundreds of different pathogens simultaneously.

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/cold-guide/common_cold_causes

This also seems to entirely miss the point. Covid is a contagious disease- you catch it from standing near other people who have it, and in turn they pass it to others, so the numbers affected continually increase as a result of the disease itself. This is why you can take simple actions (distancing, masking, vaccination) to diminish the harm Covid causes, which are generally effective.

 

Obesity is not contagious, and most (admittedly not all) of the harm done by alcohol and tobacco is also not transmissible. Obesity doesn't directly cause more obesity. Covid directly causes more Covid.

Haven't got time to read that but you miss the point entirely. Viruses like these have much worse outcomes on the many that simply imperil themselves in myriad ways by a total disregard for themselves through obesity and laziness leading to poor fitness. 

As individuals, so many like you drone on about this virus yet dom't look at how best you'd get through it, with an adult approach to personal good health. 

You're on the ignore list so don't bother with another facile essay in reply

 

[codemonkey]

CNN Poll: "Nearly 4 in 10 Americans think Covid-19 precautions are here to stay,"

(worrisome for almost 40%)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-poll-nearly-4-in-10-americans-think-covid-19-precautions-are-here-to-stay-but-others-have-already-returned-to-their-pre-pandemic-normal/ar-AARUwTn

Edited December 18, 2021 by codemonkey

[Virt]

Some say vaccines are not effective against omicron, but as this article mentions, the normal flu vaccine are only 40-60%, and yet it normally saves million of lives.

So even if vaccines lose some effectiveness against omicron, they still give some protection.

 

Which is better than nothing.

 

https://theconversation.com/how-effective-are-vaccines-against-omicron-an-epidemiologist-answers-6-questions-173554

 

At some point if omicron becomes dominant worldwide and it's milder, we might have to look at the vaccines again and do another risk vs benefit.

But for now it seems like the solution are still the vaccines.

[Oblomov]

1 hour ago, Oblomov said:

Haven't got time to read that but you miss the point entirely. Viruses like these have much worse outcomes on the many that simply imperil themselves in myriad ways by a total disregard for themselves through obesity and laziness leading to poor fitness. 

As individuals, so many like you drone on about this virus yet dom't look at how best you'd get through it, with an adult approach to personal good health. 

You're on the ignore list so don't bother with another facile essay in reply

 

You say obesity is not contagious - that's a ridiculous comment but elucidates a point - obesity causes many other complex and chronic conditions that could be avoided assuming a person was intelligent enough to recognize that. Why would anyone knowingly increase the chances of severe outcomes when there are simple and scientific ways to reduce them with effort and an instinct to survive what is survivable? Diet has become what we want rather than what we need so robust responses to illness are weakening to dangerous levels. 

 

We are all well aware of the contagious nature of this and viruses similar, but as the contagion along with mutations is inevitable, then it's time to look at other ways to aid survival personally. We are also all aware of the complexities of developing 'bespoke' vaccines for an ever changing virus. Had it not had this component to its own survival tools then we'd be in front of this  but it dos have this perpetual ability. It's not the first (or last) humans will not defeat a threat. All that aside, those that can improve their chances and should be trying and even impelled to make that effort.  

 

Most of us manage risks perfectly adequately with myriad threats to ourselves and others. I've always been a 'social distancer' and have always been extremely hygienic and still swim a km a day in pools, and swim in the sea, and remain at virtually  the same weight in my 40s as I was in my 20s. I understand that a contagious virus most likely would be mild for me but could be much more difficult for those in my circle of contacts, so I'm aware and responsible about that. This is not instead of being vaccinated but as well as. 

 

The point is that we give ourselves the best chances by our own actions and if medicine can then keep up with this wiry mutating menace, then fantastic, but we're not at that point yet and in the meantime, we all have to live and work and educate our young alongside this and every other threat out there. 

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Sometimes the world needs to deal with immediate risk and how to help mitigate it, that currently is through equitable vaccine distribution:

 

WHO Press Briefing 15 Dec

What's also really clear is that in both highly vaccinated communities, countries as well as in countries that have lower vaccination the vast majority of people who are in hospital with severe disease, in hospital because of their COVID illness are those who are unvaccinated.

 

That's true in countries with high vaccination rates so it really is the unvaccinated who are putting the pressure on the healthcare system and that, as Mike said, has to be the number one priority, especially for those that are in the highest risk group, those that remain unvaccinated.

[Chomper Higgot]

4 hours ago, Oblomov said:

Haven't got time to read that but you miss the point entirely. Viruses like these have much worse outcomes on the many that simply imperil themselves in myriad ways by a total disregard for themselves through obesity and laziness leading to poor fitness. 

As individuals, so many like you drone on about this virus yet dom't look at how best you'd get through it, with an adult approach to personal good health. 

You're on the ignore list so don't bother with another facile essay in reply

 

I take it you don’t count yourself among those who you accuse of not taking care of themselves.

[James105]

7 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes the article is reporting the news, you missed this bit:

 

"Scientists have cautioned that other nations may have a different experience to South Africa as the country’s population is young compared with developed nations. Between 70% and 80% of citizens may also have had a prior Covid-19 infection, according to antibody surveys, meaning they could have some level of protection."

 

There is currently no evidence that the actual Omicron virus is milder.

Strange they forgot to mention the fact that South Africa has only 25% of the population vaccinated in that article - that's a highly inconvenient fact for countries currently implementing vaccine mandates.   Looking forward to seeing the mental gymnastics people will go through to defend the vaccines if higher vaccinated countries fare worse than South Africa, even if they do have a slightly higher aged population.   

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, Oblomov said:

You say obesity is not contagious - that's a ridiculous comment but elucidates a point - obesity causes many other complex and chronic conditions that could be avoided assuming a person was intelligent enough to recognize that. Why would anyone knowingly increase the chances of severe outcomes when there are simple and scientific ways to reduce them with effort and an instinct to survive what is survivable? Diet has become what we want rather than what we need so robust responses to illness are weakening to dangerous levels. 

 

We are all well aware of the contagious nature of this and viruses similar, but as the contagion along with mutations is inevitable, then it's time to look at other ways to aid survival personally. We are also all aware of the complexities of developing 'bespoke' vaccines for an ever changing virus. Had it not had this component to its own survival tools then we'd be in front of this  but it dos have this perpetual ability. It's not the first (or last) humans will not defeat a threat. All that aside, those that can improve their chances and should be trying and even impelled to make that effort.  

 

Most of us manage risks perfectly adequately with myriad threats to ourselves and others. I've always been a 'social distancer' and have always been extremely hygienic and still swim a km a day in pools, and swim in the sea, and remain at virtually  the same weight in my 40s as I was in my 20s. I understand that a contagious virus most likely would be mild for me but could be much more difficult for those in my circle of contacts, so I'm aware and responsible about that. This is not instead of being vaccinated but as well as. 

 

The point is that we give ourselves the best chances by our own actions and if medicine can then keep up with this wiry mutating menace, then fantastic, but we're not at that point yet and in the meantime, we all have to live and work and educate our young alongside this and every other threat out there. 

 

 

 

“Why would anyone knowingly increase the chances of severe outcomes when there are simple and scientific ways to reduce them with effortand an instinct to survive what is survivable?”

 

I agree entirely. 

 

Why would anyone refuse a safe effective vaccine.

 

Apart from that, give up on your simplistic arguments on the obesity of others, you clearly have little if any understanding of the matter.

[Kadilo]

35 minutes ago, James105 said:

Strange they forgot to mention the fact that South Africa has only 25% of the population vaccinated in that article - that's a highly inconvenient fact for countries currently implementing vaccine mandates.   Looking forward to seeing the mental gymnastics people will go through to defend the vaccines if higher vaccinated countries fare worse than South Africa, even if they do have a slightly higher aged population.   

Looks like it’s already started. 

[Chomper Higgot]

37 minutes ago, James105 said:

Strange they forgot to mention the fact that South Africa has only 25% of the population vaccinated in that article - that's a highly inconvenient fact for countries currently implementing vaccine mandates.   Looking forward to seeing the mental gymnastics people will go through to defend the vaccines if higher vaccinated countries fare worse than South Africa, even if they do have a slightly higher aged population.   

We don’t need any mental gymnastics, we need only point to the dramatic impact vaccines have had in reducing infections, serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

49 minutes ago, James105 said:

Strange they forgot to mention the fact that South Africa has only 25% of the population vaccinated in that article - that's a highly inconvenient fact for countries currently implementing vaccine mandates.   Looking forward to seeing the mental gymnastics people will go through to defend the vaccines if higher vaccinated countries fare worse than South Africa, even if they do have a slightly higher aged population.   

I didn't post the article, I was responding to the poster who did and if you notice he did mention it. The article also says:

 

"More than 90% of hospital deaths were among the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated, News24 reported, citing Waasila Jassat, a researcher with the NICD."

[Scott]

Those doing their own research on the Omicron variant will find a long list of conflicting information and a lot of noise.  There isn't any real research.  There is data accumulated from various places and much of this is raw data that hasn't undergone a thorough review.

 

For example, how many of those with Omicron have been from unvaccinated cases and how many from vaccinated?  Of those who are vaccinated, what type of vaccine did they take and when did they take them?   It does appear that both the length of time since the last vaccination increases your chances of getting Omicron (and Delta for that matter).   Have breakthrough cases been boosted and when?

It's been noted that there are different demographics in countries like S.Africa and the UK or the Netherlands.  Are these difference significant in the number of infections and the number of people getting seriously ill or hospitalized?  

 

I don't doubt the reports, but the lack of insightful analysis appears to be missing or when given it is simply a prediction.  

 

From what I have been able to glean from the myriad amounts written, it appears to be less serious, but far more contagious.  If that holds true, it's likely that there will still be a great deal of pressure on the medical facilities because a certain number will require medical treatment.   It also means that with it being highly transmissible, we may end up with a very large number of people who are unable to work during their recovery -- which is a bit on the long side.  

We have some tools.  They may not work as well as we like, but we better use them as well as we can -- those are masks and vaccines.  We need to be masked up with high grade masks, worn correctly and we need to be vaccinated and boosted with the highest performing vaccines.  Limiting indoor activities, social distancing and other mitigating efforts need to be adhered to.

 

Hopefully, amidst all the noise we are hearing, there will be a coalescing of the raw data into something that his useful, helpful and less of a guess.

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Scott said:

Those doing their own research on the Omicron variant will find a long list of conflicting information and a lot of noise.  There isn't any real research.  There is data accumulated from various places and much of this is raw data that hasn't undergone a thorough review.

 

For example, how many of those with Omicron have been from unvaccinated cases and how many from vaccinated?  Of those who are vaccinated, what type of vaccine did they take and when did they take them?   It does appear that both the length of time since the last vaccination increases your chances of getting Omicron (and Delta for that matter).   Have breakthrough cases been boosted and when?

It's been noted that there are different demographics in countries like S.Africa and the UK or the Netherlands.  Are these difference significant in the number of infections and the number of people getting seriously ill or hospitalized?  

 

I don't doubt the reports, but the lack of insightful analysis appears to be missing or when given it is simply a prediction.  

 

From what I have been able to glean from the myriad amounts written, it appears to be less serious, but far more contagious.  If that holds true, it's likely that there will still be a great deal of pressure on the medical facilities because a certain number will require medical treatment.   It also means that with it being highly transmissible, we may end up with a very large number of people who are unable to work during their recovery -- which is a bit on the long side.  

We have some tools.  They may not work as well as we like, but we better use them as well as we can -- those are masks and vaccines.  We need to be masked up with high grade masks, worn correctly and we need to be vaccinated and boosted with the highest performing vaccines.  Limiting indoor activities, social distancing and other mitigating efforts need to be adhered to.

 

Hopefully, amidst all the noise we are hearing, there will be a coalescing of the raw data into something that his useful, helpful and less of a guess.

 

Its going to take weeks to pick apart all the different data from countries, we would all like to know now that its is milder strain but there are so many different variables and metrics they are working on, this gives a fairly good perspective on what WHO is waiting for:

 

What we need to see, Max, as you'll understand, is data from right across the whole age spectrum from the youngest to the oldest. Obviously we want to see it in different population groups and ethnicities, we want to see the data from different geographies, we want to see the data from areas with different vaccination levels as well, what's happening in the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated.

 

We need to see that information over time so this is a little bit frustrating for people and I think we're all human, believe it or not, us here as well and we want this to be a milder form of the disease. That would be, many people think, great news in some ways.

But as Annamaria mentioned, a more transmissible virus can do just as much damage or even more than one which is a little bit more severe but less transmissible.

 

It takes some time for people to develop severe disease and even more time until we see the ultimate outcome, whether they survive the disease or not. So the big concern, as the Director-General emphasised in his opening comments, is we are concerned that people are jumping to a conclusion that this is a mild disease.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

UK finds that the odds of Omicron infection in a non-household setting are about 3x higher than for Delta. Rate of infection of close contacts (face to face, within 1 meter for 1 min, or within 2 meters for 15 min):

Delta = 3.0%

Omicron = 8.7%

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042046/Technical_Briefing_32.pdf

 

[Chomper Higgot]

16 minutes ago, Iman698 said:

Option 4 - how does it matter?

 

After omicron, there'll be shomicron, domicron, gemicron, gorelta, shmelta, kekelta....

 

So what? Are you going to get jabs about each possible variants?

 

Why ever not, the vaccines are safe and effective.

Oh and welcome to ASEASNOW.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Chomper Higgot

[Bkk Brian]

UK reporting a total of 7 deaths now:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042221/20211218_OS_Daily-Omicron-Overview.pdf

[Virt]

2 hours ago, Scott said:

Those doing their own research on the Omicron variant will find a long list of conflicting information and a lot of noise.  There isn't any real research.  There is data accumulated from various places and much of this is raw data that hasn't undergone a thorough review.

 

For example, how many of those with Omicron have been from unvaccinated cases and how many from vaccinated?  Of those who are vaccinated, what type of vaccine did they take and when did they take them?   It does appear that both the length of time since the last vaccination increases your chances of getting Omicron (and Delta for that matter).   Have breakthrough cases been boosted and when?

It's been noted that there are different demographics in countries like S.Africa and the UK or the Netherlands.  Are these difference significant in the number of infections and the number of people getting seriously ill or hospitalized?  

 

I don't doubt the reports, but the lack of insightful analysis appears to be missing or when given it is simply a prediction.  

 

From what I have been able to glean from the myriad amounts written, it appears to be less serious, but far more contagious.  If that holds true, it's likely that there will still be a great deal of pressure on the medical facilities because a certain number will require medical treatment.   It also means that with it being highly transmissible, we may end up with a very large number of people who are unable to work during their recovery -- which is a bit on the long side.  

We have some tools.  They may not work as well as we like, but we better use them as well as we can -- those are masks and vaccines.  We need to be masked up with high grade masks, worn correctly and we need to be vaccinated and boosted with the highest performing vaccines.  Limiting indoor activities, social distancing and other mitigating efforts need to be adhered to.

 

Hopefully, amidst all the noise we are hearing, there will be a coalescing of the raw data into something that his useful, helpful and less of a guess.

 

Even the experts are all over the dart board, so it's not easy for us couch experts.

 

Here in Denmark the national serum institute predict between 9000 and 45000 daily cases in a week.

 

They are using best to worst case scenarios, but no way we will reach 45000 daily cases in 7 days.

 

That's just way way to pessimistic.

 

Number of daily cases are not so super useful, since each country use different test strategies, so i will watch the hospital numbers instead.

[Virt]

1 hour ago, Iman698 said:

Option 4 - how does it matter?

 

After omicron, there'll be shomicron, domicron, gemicron, gorelta, shmelta, kekelta....

 

So what? Are you going to get jabs about each possible variants?

 

Why would we.

The vaccines worked great so far on most variants.

It's not like we need a new vaccine each time the virus mutate.

[Kadilo]

Just over 90, 000 new Covid cases reported on Saturday in UK, off the record high of yesterday by around d 3,000

 

Number of deaths with Covid reported at 125, down slightly from a week ago. 
 

Now 7 reported deaths with Omicron. Despite numerous requests the government have still to confirm the details from the first reported death some 5 days ago, despite a report saying it was an unvaccinated male in his 70’s. 
 

Rumours of a circuit breaker have so far failed to materialise so far. 
A government adviser said a “circuit breaker” lockdown after Christmas would be “probably too late” and “we need to act now” to head off a huge surge of infections. Stephen Reicher, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said plan B measures alone would not be enough.

 

Of course Johnson will not call one before Xmas as he would have to recall Parliament to discuss it as he promised the other day as one of the conditions his backbenchers forced him into, and they have just broke for xmas break, and added to that he will not want to aggravate them further following the mauling they gave him with the Plan B vote 

 

So inevitably by the time it may get implemented effect it will be “probably too late” and be watered down. 

 

[Danderman123]

43 minutes ago, Iman698 said:

They work great only on people who have very sh@@@ty, deffective health and such vaccines allow those people to remain alive.  If your health like that - use them.

 

But you're not in the position to give advice to other people who are healthier than you.

 

Otherwise you, and many others here, would be like a homeless person who barely has money for food and  who tries to  teach other people with money and shelter how to become rich.

Vaccines are effective in preventing Covid symptoms and hospitalizations, especially for people with super immune symptoms. 

 

Conversely, cemeteries are filled with people who had great immune symptoms. 

[Excel]

Perhaps that question should be asked in 10 years time when the facts are know fully.

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, Iman698 said:

Vaccines in general? Yes. Covid vaccines? No.

 

You disagree? Then take them! Jab, after jab,  after jab, after jab... booster after booster. Every 3-6 months, till the end of your life.  And still remain vulnerable, and on the mersy of those big pharma companies.

 

 

For YOU, with your presumably bad and sh@@@ty heath -- the virus IS dangerous and those vaccines are the only option left.

 

 

I instead use my natural heath, which has had me recover from this virus, multiple times.

 

 

 

The COVID vaccines have prevented countless numbers of people suffering infections, serious illness,  hospitalizations and deaths together with saving the associated costs and immense human grief.

 

That’s a fact and it’s in the bag.

 

I have taken the vaccine and was very happy to do so thank you.

 

Your baseless hyperbole on ‘jab after jab, booster after booster for the rest of your life’ is just that, baseless hyperbole and emotional nonsense.

 

The status of my health, real or imagined, is not a subject of discussion on this forum. 
 

Readers of this thread have two options wrt to your statement:

 

“I instead use my natural heath, which has had me recover from this virus, multiple times.”

 

One of those options is to believe it.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, Iman698 said:

They work great only on people who have very sh@@@ty, deffective health and such vaccines allow those people to remain alive.  If your health like that - use them.

 

But you're not in the position to give advice to other people who are healthier than you.

 

Otherwise you, and many others here, would be like a homeless person who barely has money for food and  who tries to  teach other people with money and shelter how to become rich.

Factually incorrect and overtly baiting other members.

 

As you are a new member, I suggest a quick review of the rules.

[mommysboy]

I do wonder if an efficacy figure for prevention of severe illness from covid were to be applied to being lean and fit then what would that be: 20%, 50%, maybe even 75%!

 

I imagine it would be comparable to vaccines, and wouldn't fade.

 

Mind you I choose both.

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I do wonder if an efficacy figure for prevention of severe illness from covid were to be applied to being lean and fit then what would that be: 20%, 50%, maybe even 75%!

 

I imagine it would be comparable to vaccines, and wouldn't fade.

 

Mind you I choose both.

It’s meaningless.

 

In the first instance many people are not lean and fit and in the second ‘lean and fit’ people have been killed or had their health stripped from them by this wretched disease.

 

The fight against this disease is a global effort of national public health policy responses, it’s a fight for everyone, fit or not fit, slim or not slim, healthy or not healthy, young or not young.

 

Apologies that it’s a fight that might impinge on you personally, mark up your suffering for the greater good.

[Virt]

It's kinda funny to see how Germany and united States put Denmark on the red list because we have high numbers of omicron.

 

If the same countries were to test as much as Denmark they too would find more cases.

 

They have no clue how many cases of omicron that is in their countries with so few daily tests 

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day?tab=chart&country=USA~DEU~DNK