Covid - 19, The Omicron Variant and Christmas 2021

[Havenstreet1940]

Watching the UK News this morning and Bojos announcement of a UK National Omicron Emergency concentrated my thoughts on the situation in Thailand with this variant and whether I should cancel my planned Christmas Day Lunch for 12 Thai people,  all have had two jabs of Astrazeneca.

 

I only know of 4/5 cases of the new variant here in Thailand currently, but in the 12 days remaining before the 25th, who knows what the number will be.  The community transmisability of this particular variant is concerning and we are told that two jabs is no longer a defence against it.  A booster of the Pfizer vaccine will increase immunity of up to 70% according to the scientist, but that is not available here in the NE Thailand, to my understanding.   Some may say the UK situation does not apply here and we should continue with  planned events until we are told differently, however,given the 'greed' that exists in Thai Government circles, it maybe that we will not be told of the real situation until it is too late.

 

So I ask the question 'will you still continue with any planned Christmas events in the light of the emergence of this new variant.'

Edited December 13, 2021 by Havenstreet1940

[brewsterbudgen]

I'm not cancelling any holiday plans, and it is not currently a requirement to do so in the UK!  But if you're worried, then it should be entirely your choice.

[tonray]

24 minutes ago, Havenstreet1940 said:

So I ask the question 'will you still continue with any planned Christmas events in the light of the emergence of this new variant.'

Yes...if I had had any planned event. In Thailand, we don't have Christmas except for my Thai GF liking to pretend we need to go out to a nice restaurant for Xmas dinner (at which she'll no doubt order from the Thai food portion of the menu, infuriating me because the SomTam and Khanom Jeen cost 10x what they should)

[Bkk Brian]

35 minutes ago, Havenstreet1940 said:

So I ask the question 'will you still continue with any planned Christmas events in the light of the emergence of this new variant.'

Simple answer, no.

 

Its highly unlikely Omi is spreading in the community in Thailand ......yet. You can't hide that.

 

If I were in the UK now however with their tidal wave approaching I would have serious doubts.

[Havenstreet1940]

25 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

I'm not cancelling any holiday plans, and it is not currently a requirement to do so in the UK!  But if you're worried, then it should be entirely your choice.

Would you agree therefore, that the major concern of the UK is the possible overwhelming of hospitals given the expected/forecast 'tidal wave' of this variant and the collapse of the NHS due to the numbers requiring hospitalisation remembering that the England has, I believe,about 100,000 beds available, and that in the real world, the situation is more optimistic?

[mommysboy]

Well who knows the way Thailand will play it.  My gut instinct is they will go in to a very strict lockdown.

 

But it really depends on the severity of illness omicron causes.  The next 2 weeks in UK will tell us.

 

Your Xmas party- probably ok.

[Chomper Higgot]

I wouldn’t put much store in what Johnson has to say, he doesn’t obey his own dictates within the UK so I don’t think they are worth the slightest consideration from Thailand.

 

We are planning our usual Christmas eve dinner, with all the trimmings but it will be on the terrace and only four of us at table.

[mommysboy]

31 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I wouldn’t put much store in what Johnson has to say, he doesn’t obey his own dictates within the UK so I don’t think they are worth the slightest consideration from Thailand.

 

We are planning our usual Christmas eve dinner, with all the trimmings but it will be on the terrace and only four of us at table.

Utter panic in the UK.  The media totally antagonize the situation.

 

For reasonably healthy individuals who have been vaccinated Omicron probably represents nothing worse than a bad cold- but you know what it's like when politicians, the media, public health experts and scientists become involved.  

 

 

 

 

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, Havenstreet1940 said:

Would you agree therefore, that the major concern of the UK is the possible overwhelming of hospitals given the expected/forecast 'tidal wave' of this variant and the collapse of the NHS due to the numbers requiring hospitalisation remembering that the England has, I believe,about 100,000 beds available, and that in the real world, the situation is more optimistic?

Absolutely. 

[Chomper Higgot]

9 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Utter panic in the UK.  The media totally antagonize the situation.

 

For reasonably healthy individuals who have been vaccinated Omicron probably represents nothing worse than a bad cold- but you know what it's like when politicians, the media, public health experts and scientists become involved.  

 

 

 

 

The problem is nobody has any faith in Johnson.

 

The public have done remarkably well and suffered greatly in the fight against this wretched disease, only to learn the PM and his cronies have been taking the proverbial.

 

 

[mommysboy]

6 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The problem is nobody has any faith in Johnson.

 

The public have done remarkably well and suffered greatly in the fight against this wretched disease, only to learn the PM and his cronies have been taking the proverbial.

 

 

Seems to be more of a media frenzy to me.  

 

When we compare public behaviour with Thailand for instance we see that Brits have not done remarkably well, many unwilling even to wear a mask or forego a holiday to risky areas. Sometimes I think we are just drunks.

[brewsterbudgen]

1 hour ago, Havenstreet1940 said:

Would you agree therefore, that the major concern of the UK is the possible overwhelming of hospitals given the expected/forecast 'tidal wave' of this variant and the collapse of the NHS due to the numbers requiring hospitalisation remembering that the England has, I believe,about 100,000 beds available, and that in the real world, the situation is more optimistic?

Yes I would agree.  But the UK government are hoping that mask wearing in shops and on public transport will stop it.   Thailand already does this.   

[Road Warrior]

depresion is not the answer its been a long 2 years ,have your xmas dinner 

[Toany]

What will happen in Thailand.  Everybody who tests positive is put in hospital, hotel or home isolation.  What will happen when most of the country has caught it and have mild symptoms.

If they don't change things, the country will cease to work.

[sezze]

8 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Utter panic in the UK.  The media totally antagonize the situation.

 

For reasonably healthy individuals who have been vaccinated Omicron probably represents nothing worse than a bad cold- but you know what it's like when politicians, the media, public health experts and scientists become involved.  

 

 

 

 

The panic is there since they see the spread of Omicron . It is 50% extra every single day , so more then doubling every 2 days ... you can see in 14d how far we are ( take a excel file and add 50% daily ... check your numbers...) . 1st cases are in hospital and 1st confirmed death is also there , so it is not a save and harmless virus . Will it be safer then Delta , probably , but the spread rate is too fast , especially if the virulence is unknown , but it certainly isn't a cold .

[internationalism]

2 hours ago, Toany said:

What will happen in Thailand.  Everybody who tests positive is put in hospital, hotel or home isolation.  What will happen when most of the country has caught it and have mild symptoms.

If they don't change things, the country will cease to work.

they have stopped strict hospitalisation around songkran and started to do field hospitals. Still, many even didn't qualify for the field ones. Just home care from health volunteers getting some medicines, food, check ups.

If locked and asymptomatic they might let go after the second test on day 7th.

 

[Nojohndoe]

3 minutes ago, sezze said:

The panic is there since they see the spread of Omicron . It is 50% extra every single day , so more then doubling every 2 days ... you can see in 14d how far we are ( take a excel file and add 50% daily ... check your numbers...) . 1st cases are in hospital and 1st confirmed death is also there , so it is not a save and harmless virus . Will it be safer then Delta , probably , but the spread rate is too fast , especially if the virulence is unknown , but it certainly isn't a cold .

Accepted that the  contagiousness of Omicron is elevated but as for the  first death  of a person assumed was diagnosed  with said  variant what were ther  co morbidity factors ?  An otherwise healthy person or someone with high risk factors  that could have caused a death at any  near time?

Such information is crucial to public information and comprehension !

[sezze]

13 minutes ago, Nojohndoe said:

Accepted that the  contagiousness of Omicron is elevated but as for the  first death  of a person assumed was diagnosed  with said  variant what were ther  co morbidity factors ?  An otherwise healthy person or someone with high risk factors  that could have caused a death at any  near time?

Such information is crucial to public information and comprehension !

True , but the way it spreads , and a confirmed kill and 1st cases in hospitals are something to keep a eye on . You can't wait 2 weeks more if the spread is like that , with the virulence unknown .

[CG1 Blue]

9 minutes ago, Nojohndoe said:

Accepted that the  contagiousness of Omicron is elevated but as for the  first death  of a person assumed was diagnosed  with said  variant what were ther  co morbidity factors ?  An otherwise healthy person or someone with high risk factors  that could have caused a death at any  near time?

Such information is crucial to public information and comprehension !

Well said. The UK government is being economical with the truth, and this just arouses more suspicion.

Sceptics might say it's quite convenient to say one person in the UK has died from Omicron just a day after Boris' emergency announcement.

No details of this one person's age or state of health. Sceptics may even wonder if they just made it up. 

[Oblomov]

10 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Simple answer, no.

 

Its highly unlikely Omi is spreading in the community in Thailand ......yet. You can't hide that.

 

If I were in the UK now however with their tidal wave approaching I would have serious doubts.

Johnson is the master of hyperbole and not of any great veracity and his so-called 'tidal wave' is speculation at best - there's no doubt that this will be the dominant strain in every country whether it seeps in through porous borders (undetected) or enters through a more regulated border (and is spotted). 

 

I certainly believe vaccination boosters will mitigate the worst of this increase but Johnson's language is counter-productive as it's better to administer vaccines in calm and sensible programs and not these panicked measures elicited by scare tactics by that twit. 

 

Only the very credulous here automatically believe what Johnson spouts.

 

New variants are rife in countries where a lot of sequencing is done and strangely dormant in countries that don't.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Oblomov said:

Johnson is the master of hyperbole and not of any great veracity and his so-called 'tidal wave' is speculation at best - there's no doubt that this will be the dominant strain in every country whether it seeps in through porous borders (undetected) or enters through a more regulated border (and is spotted). 

 

I certainly believe vaccination boosters will mitigate the worst of this increase but Johnson's language is counter-productive as it's better to administer vaccines in calm and sensible programs and not these panicked measures elicited by scare tactics by that twit. 

 

Only the very credulous here automatically believe what Johnson spouts.

 

New variants are rife in countries where a lot of sequencing is done and strangely dormant in countries that don't.

 

 

This is not about Boris the report he has been basing his remarks is from the the UK Health Security Agency and its Epidemiologists. 

[Oblomov]

9 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Utter panic in the UK.  The media totally antagonize the situation.

 

For reasonably healthy individuals who have been vaccinated Omicron probably represents nothing worse than a bad cold- but you know what it's like when politicians, the media, public health experts and scientists become involved.  

 

 

 

 

I can  assure you that there is no panic in UK - Johnson's hyperbole is as well known as his inability to tell the truth and he'll be back on the game shows before  February

 

The media are egregiously bad in UK and are making a sensation of one death yet news is already trickling out that the deceased was aged with myriad complex and severe health conditions. The idiotic BBC couldn't wait a day to add context to a story as it doesn't fit their agenda

[Oblomov]

35 minutes ago, sezze said:

The panic is there since they see the spread of Omicron . It is 50% extra every single day , so more then doubling every 2 days ... you can see in 14d how far we are ( take a excel file and add 50% daily ... check your numbers...) . 1st cases are in hospital and 1st confirmed death is also there , so it is not a save and harmless virus . Will it be safer then Delta , probably , but the spread rate is too fast , especially if the virulence is unknown , but it certainly isn't a cold .

There is no panic in UK - media would have you believe that but people have simply quietly gone about taking more precautions calmly

 

Apparently, news is trickling out that the deceased and those being badly affected are those that are  badly affected by any added condition, as they have myriad and complex pre-existing conditions including obesity related conditions. News outlets fail to add the context to these lurid headlines so some segments of some populations .

 

There is no panic 

[Oblomov]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

This is not about Boris the report he has been basing his remarks is from the the UK Health Security Agency and its Epidemiologists. 

And you look at the accuracy of their previous 'predictions' also - you have to remember the intention is to ramp up the vaccination program, something I fully agree with, but there are more efficient ways to do this

 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Oblomov said:

And you look at the accuracy of their previous 'predictions' also - you have to remember the intention is to ramp up the vaccination program, something I fully agree with, but there are more efficient ways to do this

 

What are you talking about, surges in cases happen earlier than hospitalization. By weeks. Case increases are an early warning sign. If we wait for hospitalizations, we lose the window to act.

 

The intention is to ramp of booster doses to help stop serious cases and deaths. 

[Oblomov]

14 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

This is not about Boris the report he has been basing his remarks is from the the UK Health Security Agency and its Epidemiologists. 

Who have also been wildly wrong on numerous occasions - I'm not disputing the inevitable spread of this globally but it's the panic that is counter productive and senseless. Ramp up precautions until more is known as these variants will be popping up all over the world, probably forever now, so there's got to be a more measured approach or this is life from now on and I don't think anyone wants this much longer.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Oblomov said:

Who have also been wildly wrong on numerous occasions - I'm not disputing the inevitable spread of this globally but it's the panic that is counter productive and senseless. Ramp up precautions until more is known as these variants will be popping up all over the world, probably forever now, so there's got to be a more measured approach or this is life from now on and I don't think anyone wants this much longer.

 

 

Yes lets hope they are wrong and instead measures are their to stop the worst case scenario, Epidemiologists always want to be wrong, that's why they give best, middle and worst case risk assessments

[Oblomov]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

What are you talking about, surges in cases happen earlier than hospitalization. By weeks. Case increases are an early warning sign. If we wait for hospitalizations, we lose the window to act.

 

The intention is to ramp of booster doses to help stop serious cases and deaths. 

What are you talking about ?  A  new variant does not necessarily follow the same hospitalization trend for many reasons - vaccination and natural anti-bodies after infection - none of that was prevalent with Delta

 

SA is ahead of the European curve so we can glean some positives from there so far

 

Don't simply assume things of this variant that are not yet proven - that's silly

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Oblomov said:

What are you talking about ?  A  new variant does not necessarily follow the same hospitalization trend for many reasons - vaccination and natural anti-bodies after infection - none of that was prevalent with Delta

 

SA is ahead of the European curve so we can glean some positives from there so far

 

Don't simply assume things of this variant that are not yet proven - that's silly

 

 

Omicron has vaccine evasion properties, AZ is down to 0% after 100 days and Pfizer is down to just 30%

Read what he actual experts say:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf

[CG1 Blue]

4 minutes ago, Oblomov said:

The media are egregiously bad in UK and are making a sensation of one death yet news is already trickling out that the deceased was aged with myriad complex and severe health conditions. The idiotic BBC couldn't wait a day to add context to a story as it doesn't fit their agenda

Absolutely. LBC used to be a good listen but 9 out of 10 of their hosts are now sheep, just regurgitating the same narrative. 

Maajid Nawaz is the exception. He delves deeper into the stories and questions the narrative. Asking questions such as why our governments' (paid) medical advisors won't acknowledge the apparent mildness of Omicron despite South Africa's medics shouting it from the roof tops. And why there is talk of jabbing healthy 5 year olds when the risk of heart complications from the vaccine is many times higher than the risk of getting sick from Covid for a 5 year old. 

 

It's now all about pushing the booster jabs. And of course the booster cannot be the (non-profit) AZ vaccine, it has to be Pfizer or Moderna who will get multi-billion dollar ongoing contracts out of this. It's no wonder scepticism is growing. 

 

The vast majority in the UK will go ahead with Christmas plans no matter what Boris says now. And he knows it.