Jump to content



Expert Predicts Rise in COVID-19 Cases But Herd Immunity Possibility From Omicron


snoop1130

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, bluehippie said:

Like this unsubstantiated pronouncement:

"Delta was well on the way to being controlled by vaccines before omicron mutated in an unvaccinated person."

 

Your "pronouncement" is an assumption, based on nothing more than an unproven theory.

But if you have a "link" to prove otherwise, you should provide it here.

 

In the meantime, here are some links to the theories.

https://www.alternet.org/2021/12/omicron-origins/

https://www.salon.com/2021/12/21/theres-a-giant-mysterious-gap-in-the-omicron-variants-family-tree/

 

 

A few months ago, before omicron, charts clearly showed a strong decline in delta cases world wide. Do you dispute this? If so I will post more links to prove it was the case.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/covid-cases-are-dropping-u-s-delta-wave-over-ncna1282585

 

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2021/10/08/delta-variant-pandemic-decline

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/28/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

 

As for my claim that omicron mutated in an unvaccinated person. Here are some links. I had already posted links to this effect at the time and so for those paying attention this was well established.

 

"“No question there's a lot more replication happening among unvaccinated people, and replication is the heart of mutations that lead us to” variants such as omicron."

https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/12/02/dr-ashish-jha-breaks-down-omicron-and-why-covid-mutates-so-easily-in-the-unvaccinated/8836141002/

 

The mutation of the Omicron variant could be down to "reservoirs" of the virus lurking in the unvaccinated and immunosuppressed.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-emergence-of-omicron-variant-could-be-down-to-reservoirs-of-virus-in-the-unvaccinated-and-immunosuppressed-12481188

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

"The expert noted as well that the outlook for vaccine manufacturers may not be as bright going forward as a consequence of this trend."

 

As I said in a response to another post on here  today "Oh dear,what a shame!"

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, sambum said:

"The expert noted as well that the outlook for vaccine manufacturers may not be as bright going forward as a consequence of this trend."

 

As I said in a response to another post on here  today "Oh dear,what a shame!"

NOBODY is over blowing coronavirus in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, DoctorB said:

What he says is irrelevant. What matters is what the politicians and others with an interest in keeping their hands on the levers of power decide. As some cynic remarked, "Power is a ratchet, not a pendulum". Or, to quote Winston Churchill, "Never let a good crisis go to waste". They will keep this going for a long time yet.

Unless they find another excuse to keep the "State of Emergency" in place?

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

NOBODY is over blowing coronavirus in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies.

"overblowing"? Strange word, but sorry, I agree with what he is saying - I think that he is speaking a lot of sense, regardless of the fact that some of what he says has also been attributed to other people.

 

I also think that the "fear factor" has been used in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies, but I can not prove it!

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, misterworldwide said:

Some good news!

It's a theory -- and one that hasn't yet been reported by the Western media -- but maybe he's right!

 

The only factor not calculated for is that there are millions in the world that haven't yet been vaccinated (including children) (and the many anti-vaccers!) who can/will continue to mutate, incubate and produce variants that we are not immune to!

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, sambum said:

"overblowing"? Strange word, but sorry, I agree with what he is saying - I think that he is speaking a lot of sense, regardless of the fact that some of what he says has also been attributed to other people.

 

I also think that the "fear factor" has been used in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies, but I can not prove it!

 

 

Then you shouldn't even say it. Unsubstantiated "opinions" about scientific issues are verbal garbage and a waste of everybody's time. What you are suggesting is nothing less than a conspiracy theory and patently unlikely to be true. The authority is not suggesting that the virus has been overdone or that it's pursuing an agenda,

Edited by ozimoron
  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, peter zwart said:

Omicron coronavirus variant will develop into a live vaccine that provides immunity without the need for booster shots.

Finaly some one that make sense. Let the European knuckleheads listen to this man. 

Well to be fair.....   Covid: Boris Johnson plans to 'ride out' Omicron wave with no more curbs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

What has the chimney got to do with it?

Cause all the cr@p about this "new" virus appears to have now gone up in smoke!!

????

Edited by fangless
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, fangless said:

Cause all the cr@p about this "new" virus appears to have now gone up in smoke!!

????

The local nurses union in the small town where I live is warning of an imminent collapse of the health system due to omicron cases causing overload and there is a young child described as "seriously unwell" in hospital. .

  • Like 1
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, jackinthebox said:

>The expert noted as well that the outlook for vaccine manufacturers may not be as bright going forward as a consequence of this trend.

 

What? At least for research and development it certainliy is bright. Biontech is booming here in germany (suddenly even making City of Mainz and Bundesland Rheinland-Pfalz (Rhineland-Palatinate) a wealthy state due to taxes) and you hear scientists speaking of the twenties as a "virology decade"

OP is not about anything in Germany, OP is about herd immunity in Thailand. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He is running slow. the virus is way much faster.

Forget about Omicron, France has a new virus, coming from ... Africa, Kameroen.

You can google it, im not making it up. Was on news internet (MSN) this morning, but already many sites come up with it

Not yet another Greek letter, but it is there.

Good thing from WHO, forget about other countries to vaccinate and you ll get new ones on your plate.

That is proven now ever since pandemic started.

We are running around in circles with no proper actions.  Pfizer and Modena are laughing their ass of.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, misterworldwide said:

Some good news!

My friend had Omicron here in France around Christmas. She is 60 and also asthmatic. She was in bed at home for 3 days, very tired with cold symptoms. 4 th day fine. They also told her that her Omicron was a very high count. 
it seems for most people , like a cold.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

First. "Immunity" means... You can't get it any more!  Covid is already proven itself as a virus you can get repeatedly, so "herd immunity" is impossible unless the virus completely dies out. 

 

Second, the good doctor is a "pulminologist" - NOT qualified as an expert in this field. His opinion is not expert (see paragraph one). 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Flink said:

Modelling: yeah, so the SAGE committee who decide the UK's response to the pandemic (odd that, I thought the populace voted in the government to run, and make decisions for,the country. Not some think tank full of communists) uses modelling and they show highdeath rates. Here's the thing though, when they requst the models to be made the brief they give is "What would be the WORST scenario if no action, vaccination program, masking, lockdowns were in place?" and the model is made to those specs. So, obviously, they are not showing reality, just a version of reality they have cooked up. The modelling graphs have appeared online and show the "projected"  death rates but bear no resemblance to the "actual" death rates. They are used as a tool to force governments with a weak disposition to enforce more hardships on their populations. They have no other purpose.

Yep. They also did the modelling for Omicron using the assumption that Omicron would be as virulent / deadly as Delta, even though data from South Africa suggested otherwise. SAGE should be giving us 3 models:

 

1. Worst case

2. Likely case based on info so far

3. Best case

 

Hopefully Dr Manoon and others can help to provide some balance. 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, ozimoron said:

NOBODY is over blowing coronavirus in order to promote the interests of pharmaceutical companies.

I'm sure most medical experts are giving their honest opinions and analysis. Doctors always err on the side of caution. I mean, if doctors ran the world nobody would be allowed to drink alcohol, smoke, eat bacon/butter/chocolate etc. etc. 

 

But I think it's a bit naive to say NOBODY is overblowing the pandemic for the benefit of big pharma. Or was that a joke? 

Edited by CG1 Blue
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

I'm sure most medical experts are giving their honest opinions and analysis. Doctors always err on the side of caution. I mean, if doctors ran the world nobody would be allowed to drink alcohol, smoke, eat bacon/butter/chocolate etc. etc. 

 

But I think it's a bit naive to say NOBODY is overblowing the pandemic for the benefit of big pharma. Or was that a joke? 

It was not a joke. Who would you believe was doing that? We know the virus is terrible. It doesn't need overblowing. The press and doctors have been upfront in saying that initial data was pointing to omicron being milder (by about 50%) than delta. I haven't read any accounts of over exaggeration of the dangers of any variant. Have you? If so, where?

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bumpity said:

First. "Immunity" means... You can't get it any more!  Covid is already proven itself as a virus you can get repeatedly, so "herd immunity" is impossible unless the virus completely dies out. 

 

Second, the good doctor is a "pulminologist" - NOT qualified as an expert in this field. His opinion is not expert (see paragraph one). 

 

Are you kidding? A respiratory specialist isn't qualified to discuss a disease of the respiratory system?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, xtrnuno41 said:

He is running slow. the virus is way much faster.

Forget about Omicron, France has a new virus, coming from ... Africa, Kameroen.

You can google it, im not making it up. Was on news internet (MSN) this morning, but already many sites come up with it

Not yet another Greek letter, but it is there.

Good thing from WHO, forget about other countries to vaccinate and you ll get new ones on your plate.

That is proven now ever since pandemic started.

We are running around in circles with no proper actions.  Pfizer and Modena are laughing their ass of.

https://www.news.com.au/technology/science/french-scientists-discover-new-mutant-covid-variant-which-could-be-more-resistant-to-vaccines/news-story/3f0f3dd255130ce57d68cde9292a94d6

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I haven't read any accounts of over exaggeration of the dangers of any variant. Have you? If so, where?

There are plenty of examples if you do a quick search. Here's one good summary: 

 

'As recently as October, SAGE was reported to have predicted 7000 hospital admissions a day, a scenario which didn’t come close to materialising; in fact, admissions barely topped 1000.

Professor Medley explained that the models produced by SAGE were “not predictions”; rather than models produced for a broad range of eventualities, their remit was far more limited. Policymakers discuss ‘with modellers what they need to inform their policy’ and models are created on the back of such discussions. Therefore, models are produced to ‘support a decision’ made by policymakers, rather than on the likelihood or plausibility of an event.'

https://unherd.com/thepost/sages-doomsday-predictions-are-damaging-public-trust/

 

Media outlets then latch onto these wild predictions and use them in alarmist headlines. That must do a a lot of harm (which is explained quite well in that article). 

 

 Dr Manoon's comments give some welcome balance IMO. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CG1 Blue said:

There are plenty of examples if you do a quick search. Here's one good summary: 

 

'As recently as October, SAGE was reported to have predicted 7000 hospital admissions a day, a scenario which didn’t come close to materialising; in fact, admissions barely topped 1000.

Professor Medley explained that the models produced by SAGE were “not predictions”; rather than models produced for a broad range of eventualities, their remit was far more limited. Policymakers discuss ‘with modellers what they need to inform their policy’ and models are created on the back of such discussions. Therefore, models are produced to ‘support a decision’ made by policymakers, rather than on the likelihood or plausibility of an event.'

https://unherd.com/thepost/sages-doomsday-predictions-are-damaging-public-trust/

 

Media outlets then latch onto these wild predictions and use them in alarmist headlines. That must do a a lot of harm (which is explained quite well in that article). 

 

 Dr Manoon's comments give some welcome balance IMO. 

I have already explained in this thread that the modelling you referred to was based on an assumption of no vaccines. It has since been updated. No the goalposts have not changed, the vaccines have arrived. I posted the link above as well. Those are not statements of deliberate over exaggeration intended to support pharmaceutical companies which was your original claim. Try again or find more data to support your conspiracy theory.

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

There are plenty of examples if you do a quick search. Here's one good summary: 

 

'As recently as October, SAGE was reported to have predicted 7000 hospital admissions a day, a scenario which didn’t come close to materialising; in fact, admissions barely topped 1000.

Professor Medley explained that the models produced by SAGE were “not predictions”; rather than models produced for a broad range of eventualities, their remit was far more limited. Policymakers discuss ‘with modellers what they need to inform their policy’ and models are created on the back of such discussions. Therefore, models are produced to ‘support a decision’ made by policymakers, rather than on the likelihood or plausibility of an event.'

https://unherd.com/thepost/sages-doomsday-predictions-are-damaging-public-trust/

 

Media outlets then latch onto these wild predictions and use them in alarmist headlines. That must do a a lot of harm (which is explained quite well in that article). 

 

 Dr Manoon's comments give some welcome balance IMO. 

You forget that people in the UK have been still under a few restrictions and more importantly that the population has modified it's socialising over the Christmas period.

People mix less because they are mixing in smaller family units over the Christmas period.

The figures you quote are worst case IF the virus was allowed to run wild.

Whilst not scaremongering, it certainly focuses the population's mind on what could happen.

That's why although the NHS is under pressure, those in hospital are a lot less than last January.

The UK has virtually all its vulnerable population triple jabbed as well.

Edited by Cherrytreeview
Edit
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I have already explained in this thread that the modelling you referred to was based on an assumption of no vaccines. It has since been updated. No the goalposts have not changed, the vaccines have arrived. I posted the link above as well. Those are not statements of deliberate over exaggeration intended to support pharmaceutical companies which was your original claim. Try again or find more data to support your conspiracy theory.

And my point is that you cannot dismiss the possibility that some people in the medical profession, in politics and in the media will benefit from a prolonged pandemic and may put biased views out there.

When listed companies have the potential to make trillions over the coming years, you cannot rule out corruption. You could say the same for Thailand with the fortunes being made from ASQ etc. 

I don't have a conspiracy theory, I just like to keep an open mind. And I am not naive enough to think NOBODY is taking advantage of the situation. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Cherrytreeview said:

You forget that people in the UK have been still under a few restrictions and more importantly that the population has modified it's socialising over the Christmas period.

People mix less because they are mixing in smaller family units over the Christmas period.

The figures you quote are worst case IF the virus was allowed to run wild.

Whilst not scaremongering, it certainly focuses the population's mind on what could happen.

That's why although the NHS is under pressure, those in hospital are a lot less than last January.

The UK has virtually all its vulnerable population triple jabbed as well.

I agree with a lot of what you say, but by not putting balanced arguments/stats/predictions out there we end up with people in dire states of mental health and even more division in society. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.