ICE vs EV, the debate thread

[Cameroni]

6 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

 

 

Regarding EV fires, yes, this is a definite concern. Empirical data suggests that NMC batteries are much less stable than LFP batteries which is why the majority of new EVs are now fitted with the latter. However, everything in life comes with a risk, from flying to eating a meal. There was a recent case where a man tried to kill himself and his family by driving his Tesla off a cliff. It didn’t catch fire. 

 

EV fires are indeed a concern.  To such an extent that a major city will not allow EV owners to park their cars in underground garages now.

 

"South Korea’s most populous city is set to introduce new guidelines for electric vehicle (EV) owners following highly-publicised fires in recent weeks.

 

Korea JoongAng Daily reports the Seoul Metropolitan Government has advised EV drivers to not use underground car parks if their batteries are holding more than 90 per cent charge.

 

It adds there will be a pilot trial of limiting rapid chargers to 80 per cent if they’re in a public space, and there are reportedly plans to expand this to private operators."

 

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/fully-charged-seoul-wont-let-you-park-your-ev-underground

 

So not only will be the parking options for EV drivers be limited, the concern about fires has also affected the availability of chargers, so the charging infrastructure.

 

A serious concern indeed.

[Cameroni]

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

You can't see [sic] [say]because the UK hasn't yet collected data but is now starting to then all other countries data is unreliable,

 

The whole UK post is spurious.

 

No, again, it's not that the UK "hasn't yet collected data". It has collected data on car fires, but many of the authorities do not distinguish between EV and petrol car fires.

 

Since the UK is a highly develolped country it is fair to say that most countries around the world will have the same issue, ie of not distinguishing between EV fires and petrol car fires. Therefore studies that purport to claim that EV car fires are less likely are not reliable since they do not use accurate data.

 

The BBC article is not spurious, it is very clear and shows the issue with recording car fires.

[JBChiangRai]

15 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

No, again, it's not that the UK "hasn't yet collected data". It has collected data on car fires, but many of the authorities do not distinguish between EV and petrol car fires.

 

Since the UK is a highly develolped country it is fair to say that most countries around the world will have the same issue, ie of not distinguishing between EV fires and petrol car fires. Therefore studies that purport to claim that EV car fires are less likely are not reliable since they do not use accurate data.

 

The BBC article is not spurious, it is very clear and shows the issue with recording car fires.

 

No, it's not fair to say that.  You are making spurious assumptions.

[Cameroni]

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

No, it's not fair to say that.  You are making spurious assumptions.

 

Oh really? Let's have a look at the United States then.

 

"Specific numbers on EV fires are challenging to pin down. The National Fire Incident Reporting System, or NFIRS, used by fire departments, hasn't historically separated gasoline car fires from those involving electrified vehicles. "

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lithium-ion-battery-fires-electric-cars-bikes-scooters-firefighters/

 

So looks like it was fair to say that othercountries still do not have accurate data which separates EV fires and petrol car fires, doesn't it JB?

 

Wrong again, tssssk.

 

[JBChiangRai]

Just now, Cameroni said:

 

Oh really? Let's have a look at the United States then.

 

"Specific numbers on EV fires are challenging to pin down. The National Fire Incident Reporting System, or NFIRS, used by fire departments, hasn't historically separated gasoline car fires from those involving electrified vehicles. "

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lithium-ion-battery-fires-electric-cars-bikes-scooters-firefighters/

 

So looks like it was fair to say that othercountries still do not have accurate data which separates EV fires and petrol car fires, doesn't it JB?

 

Wrong again, tssssk.

 

 

More fluff & nonsense Cameron?

 

The relevant US statics do not come from the NFIRS, nor do they come from the Mickey Mouse Appreciation Society, do they?

 

Try quoting where they do come from.

[Cameroni]

38 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

More fluff & nonsense Cameron?

 

The relevant US statics do not come from the NFIRS, nor do they come from the Mickey Mouse Appreciation Society, do they?

 

Try quoting where they do come from.

 

Of course you're the one posting nonsense, I have clearly shown that the data of the relevant authorities in the UK and the US collecting car fires does not distinguish EV and petrol car fires. The data is only going to be useful in the distant future, when that distinction has been made everywhere and good data is collected. Therefore studies purporting to show how EVs have less fire risk than ICEs are using inaccurate data, and are most likely funded by government or interest groups that have a vested interest in pushing EVs.

 

Besides the notion that one can make this comparison now is already nonsensical, since the average EV car is newer by many years than the average ICE car. This obviously affects the fire statistics.

 

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

8 hours ago, josephbloggs said:

How are your cherries doing? All sales are down, ICE and EV.

From your link:

However, the order for all-electric VW vehicles increased by 124% in West Europe. This increase suggests that more Europeans are transitioning to electric vehicles. 

You really should read the whole article before you post the link, it would stop you looking silly.
 

And from your second link "luxury" EV sales are down from the legacy auto makers, because they are overpriced rubbish.

 

The general consensus is that there is a demand for more affordable EVs, which automakers are striving to launch.

Nearly all major automakers in the EV market have unveiled plans for affordable electric vehicles starting around $25,000. Tesla has the Model 2 or Model Q EV coming out, which has yet to be unveiled. Earlier this year, Volkswagen shared plans for a new EV under €25,000.

However, it will still take some time before affordable EVs hit the road. A few legacy automakers have turned to hybrids to boost sales until they launch more affordable electric vehicles.

 

Now in EOW and transam style, here are some childish emojis.  🍒🍒🍒🍒

Haven't seen the old troll for a while, did he finally get banned?



 

Thanks for admitting me to team cherry 🍒, it means a lot to me to be accepted by this outstanding group. Hope you don't mind if I do an oil change on the lawn in front of the farm while you guys flip some ribeyes on the BBQ.

 

I don't follow European cars sales at all, these guys are way too green for my taste, but auto sales look kind of flat in Europe. Even with my newfound cherry skill set, it is hard to spin EV's market share as anything by flat at best, although it is falling.

 

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

8 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

For it to be meaningful, you have to compare it to passenger vehicle sales overall, otherwise the conclusion is misleading.

 

You've done that with Thailand before to suggest EV sales are falling when in fact the percentage share of new vehicle sales climbed every month for 6 months.

Violà!

 

As a bonus, the chart showing the death of the UK 🇬🇧 auto industry (I couldn't attach it this morning).

[ExpatOilWorker]

5 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

How is this possible, you might well ask. Well, thanks to a huge battery on my despised (by some) EV, I suck up the free electrons thrown out there like scraps of dog food by BYD. When I get home, I generously share it out to my PHEV, my 2 TVs and multiple fridge freezers and standing fans plus an assortment of other electrical appliances  such as an air compressor, dehumidifiers, dog hairdryer etc.

Penny pinching taking to the next order of magnitude. 

[Rimmer]

Some off topic posts trying to hijack the thread into fires have been removed.

 

There is a dedicated fire topic already running HERE 

 

Thank you

 

 

[Gweiloman]

16 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Penny pinching taking to the next order of magnitude. 

Look after the pennies… and you know the rest.

[Captain Flack]

I have removed a post about EV fires.

 

Please discuss EV fires here 

 

[Pib]

 

EU area vehicle registration stats are bottom. Go to the link below to see the associated charts as they might not appear in the partial quote below.

 

Regarding the growth in hybrids (HEV) market share, well, that's a no-brainer as many vehicle manufacturers are adding a small electric drive system and small traction battery to assist the combustion engine that still doing the great majority of the work.  Now the manufacturer can stick a HEV  badge on the vehicle that lots of people are looking for now days...and the manufacturer get to continue selling their electric-modified ICEV.

 

The manufacturers know many people want to go electric but the manufacturer may be behind the curve in offering fully electric vehicles (i.e. BEV) and many people are just not ready yet to go full electric.  But many people are willing to dip their toes in the hybrid waters....they are just not ready yet to jump into BEV waters.   So, many manufacturers are sticking HEV badges on many of their models by adding a little bit of electric power to their ICEV which turns it into a HEV.   End result more HEV are being sold as ICEV market share decline.  

 

https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-4-3-in-june-2024-battery-electric-14-4-market-share/

New car registrations: +4.3% in June 2024; battery electric 14.4% market share

18 July 2024

In June 2024, EU car registrations increased by 4.3%, driven by gains in three out of the region’s four major markets: Italy (+15.1%), Germany (+6.1%), and Spain (+2.2%). In contrast, France saw a decline of 4.8% last month.

In the first half of 2024, new car registrations increased by 4.5%, reaching nearly 5.7 million units. However, registration volumes remain relatively low (-18%) compared to pre-pandemic levels. The bloc’s largest markets all showed positive but modest performance, with Spain (+5.9%), Germany (+5.4%), Italy (+5.4%), and France (+2.8%) all recording growth.

New EU car registrations by power source

In June, battery-electric cars accounted for 14.4% of the EU car market, down from 15.1% the previous year. At the same time, hybrid-electric vehicles increased their market share, growing from 24.4% to 29.5%. The combined share of petrol and diesel cars fell to 47.1%, down from 49.6%.

Electric cars

In June 2024, registrations of battery-electric (BEV) cars declined by 1% to 156,408 units, with their total market share dropping to 14.4% from 15.1%. Despite significant growth in Belgium (+50.4%) and Italy (+117.4%), these gains could not offset double-digit declines in the other top markets: Germany (-18.1%), the Netherlands (-15%), and France (-10.3%). As a result, a total of 712,637 new battery-electric cars were registered in the first half of the year. This marks a modest 1.3% increase from the same period the previous year, and represents 12.5% of the market.

Plug-in hybrid car registrations saw a strong decline of 19.9% last month, with significant decreases in three of the largest markets: Belgium (-49.2%), France (-21.7%), and Germany (-3.4%). In June, plug-in hybrids accounted for 6.1% of the total car market, down from 7.9% last year, with 66,482 units sold.

Hybrid-electric vehicles were the only powertrain category to post growth, with car registrations increasing by 26.4% in June to 321,959 units. All four of the largest markets for this segment recorded double-digit gains: France (+34.9%), Italy (+27.2%), Spain (+23%), and Germany (+16.5%). This growth pushed the hybrid-electric market share to 29.5%, up from 24.4% in June 2023.

Petrol and diesel cars

In June 2024, petrol car sales remained relatively stable, decreasing by just 0.7%. Declines in key markets such as France (-20.2%) and Spain (-7.5%) were counterbalanced by growth in Germany (+12.1%) and Italy (+6.9%). As a result, petrol cars now represent 34.4% of the market, down from 36.2% in June last year. The diesel car market saw a similar situation, with a slight decline of 0.9%, resulting in a 12.7% share of the market last June. While Germany experienced a gain of 12.4%, decreases were observed in other major markets like Italy (-18.3%), France (-8.3%), and Spain (-2.1%).

[ExpatOilWorker]

16 minutes ago, Pib said:

 

EU area vehicle registration stats are bottom. Go to the link below to see the associated charts as they might not appear in the partial quote below.

 

Regarding the growth in hybrids (HEV) market share, well, that's a no-brainer as many vehicle manufacturers are adding a small electric drive system and small traction battery to assist the combustion engine that still doing the great majority of the work.  Now the manufacturer can stick a HEV  badge on the vehicle that lots of people are looking for now days...and the manufacturer get to continue selling their electric-modified ICEV.

 

The manufacturers know many people want to go electric but the manufacturer may be behind the curve in offering fully electric vehicles (i.e. BEV) and many people are just not ready yet to go full electric.  But many people are willing to dip their toes in the hybrid waters....they are just not ready yet to jump into BEV waters.   So, many manufacturers are sticking HEV badges on many of their models by adding a little bit of electric power to their ICEV which turns it into a HEV.   End result more HEV are being sold as ICEV market share decline.  

 

https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations-4-3-in-june-2024-battery-electric-14-4-market-share/

New car registrations: +4.3% in June 2024; battery electric 14.4% market share

18 July 2024

In June 2024, EU car registrations increased by 4.3%, driven by gains in three out of the region’s four major markets: Italy (+15.1%), Germany (+6.1%), and Spain (+2.2%). In contrast, France saw a decline of 4.8% last month.

In the first half of 2024, new car registrations increased by 4.5%, reaching nearly 5.7 million units. However, registration volumes remain relatively low (-18%) compared to pre-pandemic levels. The bloc’s largest markets all showed positive but modest performance, with Spain (+5.9%), Germany (+5.4%), Italy (+5.4%), and France (+2.8%) all recording growth.

New EU car registrations by power source

In June, battery-electric cars accounted for 14.4% of the EU car market, down from 15.1% the previous year. At the same time, hybrid-electric vehicles increased their market share, growing from 24.4% to 29.5%. The combined share of petrol and diesel cars fell to 47.1%, down from 49.6%.

Electric cars

In June 2024, registrations of battery-electric (BEV) cars declined by 1% to 156,408 units, with their total market share dropping to 14.4% from 15.1%. Despite significant growth in Belgium (+50.4%) and Italy (+117.4%), these gains could not offset double-digit declines in the other top markets: Germany (-18.1%), the Netherlands (-15%), and France (-10.3%). As a result, a total of 712,637 new battery-electric cars were registered in the first half of the year. This marks a modest 1.3% increase from the same period the previous year, and represents 12.5% of the market.

Plug-in hybrid car registrations saw a strong decline of 19.9% last month, with significant decreases in three of the largest markets: Belgium (-49.2%), France (-21.7%), and Germany (-3.4%). In June, plug-in hybrids accounted for 6.1% of the total car market, down from 7.9% last year, with 66,482 units sold.

Hybrid-electric vehicles were the only powertrain category to post growth, with car registrations increasing by 26.4% in June to 321,959 units. All four of the largest markets for this segment recorded double-digit gains: France (+34.9%), Italy (+27.2%), Spain (+23%), and Germany (+16.5%). This growth pushed the hybrid-electric market share to 29.5%, up from 24.4% in June 2023.

Petrol and diesel cars

In June 2024, petrol car sales remained relatively stable, decreasing by just 0.7%. Declines in key markets such as France (-20.2%) and Spain (-7.5%) were counterbalanced by growth in Germany (+12.1%) and Italy (+6.9%). As a result, petrol cars now represent 34.4% of the market, down from 36.2% in June last year. The diesel car market saw a similar situation, with a slight decline of 0.9%, resulting in a 12.7% share of the market last June. While Germany experienced a gain of 12.4%, decreases were observed in other major markets like Italy (-18.3%), France (-8.3%), and Spain (-2.1%).

 

As always, a nice factual report from @Pib. Anybody care to venture a guess as to what the 2.9% others are?

 

[KhunLA]

23 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

There is a thread for car fires ... PLEASE USE IT

 

As you yet again have ruined an interesting thread for those that actually want to have a discussion.

[KhunLA]

For those needing a visual aid ... BEV & ICEV buyer start out with same bank balance, used to buy in & to energize / fuel vehicles for 8 years @฿5 / kWh (PEA) and ฿36 / L (PTT) respectfully.   UP2 U 

 

[KhunLA]

When it hits the fan

 

Who you going to call ?

Not GhostBusters or  ICEV owners 

 

"Electric vehicles can charge to the rescue in blackouts"

 

paraphrased from link;

"Emergency reserves are contracted by the electricity market operator from operators of generators such as big batteries and gas plants, so instantaneous power can be jolted into the grid in case of a power line collapse or other emergency.

 

“To put that in perspective,” Sturmberg said, “105,000 vehicles responding in this way would fully cover the back-up required for the whole of ACT and NSW”.

He said vehicle-to-grid technology would not only provide the grid with an extra power supply, it could also be used to cut demand when power supplies were running low."

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

For those needing a visual aid ... BEV & ICEV buyer start out with same bank balance, used to buy in & to energize / fuel vehicles for 8 years @฿5 / kWh (PEA) and ฿36 / L (PTT) respectfully.   UP2 U 

 

 

The figures are using lots of Cherries

2020 MG ZS EV purchase price B1,190,000 

2020 MG ZS purchase price Model D B700,000

On one2car 2020 MG ZS price range from B309,000 to B428,000

On one2car 2020 MG ZS EV price range from B386,000 to B499,000

Current new prices for MG ZS EV B599,000

Current new price for MG ZS model D B599,000

MG ZS EV 2020 price has been reduced by B591,000

MG ZS 2020 model D price has been reduced by B101,000

On top of all of the above add insurance costs for MG ZS EV compared to MG ZS

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

 

The figures are using lots of Cherries

2020 MG ZS EV purchase price B1,190,000 

2020 MG ZS purchase price Model D B700,000

On one2car 2020 MG ZS price range from B309,000 to B428,000

On one2car 2020 MG ZS EV price range from B386,000 to B499,000

Current new prices for MG ZS EV B599,000

Current new price for MG ZS model D B599,000

MG ZS EV 2020 price has been reduced by B591,000

MG ZS 2020 model D price has been reduced by B101,000

On top of all of the above add insurance costs for MG ZS EV compared to MG ZS

Yes, but MG EV owners plan to drive the same MG EV for the rest of their lives, so depreciation does not matter. 

[vinny41]

10 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Yes, but MG EV owners plan to drive the same MG EV for the rest of their lives, so depreciation does not matter. 

And for the MG ZS EV owners that do want to trade up the tents might take a punt on the basis that MG can't reduce the price any lower

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

When it hits the fan

 

Who you going to call ?

Not GhostBusters or  ICEV owners 

 

"Electric vehicles can charge to the rescue in blackouts"

 

paraphrased from link;

"Emergency reserves are contracted by the electricity market operator from operators of generators such as big batteries and gas plants, so instantaneous power can be jolted into the grid in case of a power line collapse or other emergency.

 

“To put that in perspective,” Sturmberg said, “105,000 vehicles responding in this way would fully cover the back-up required for the whole of ACT and NSW”.

He said vehicle-to-grid technology would not only provide the grid with an extra power supply, it could also be used to cut demand when power supplies were running low."

Call call the Powerbuster lady.

 

[KhunLA]

20 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

 

The figures are using lots of Cherries

2020 MG ZS EV purchase price B1,190,000 

2020 MG ZS purchase price Model D B700,000

On one2car 2020 MG ZS price range from B309,000 to B428,000

On one2car 2020 MG ZS EV price range from B386,000 to B499,000

Current new prices for MG ZS EV B599,000

Current new price for MG ZS model D B599,000

MG ZS EV 2020 price has been reduced by B591,000

MG ZS 2020 model D price has been reduced by B101,000

On top of all of the above add insurance costs for MG ZS EV compared to MG ZS

Actually I spit ball, MG4 is ~฿700k, as are  few BYDs.  So pick your 1.5L Toyota w/AT or whatever, and should be in the same ฿700k ball park.  Today's prices and not really on sale.   No need to mention performance, as we all know that answer.

 

And used the usual, almost standard 50kWh battery for 360 kms per charge & ฿5/kW, and petrol, 14 kpL @ ฿36.   Yearly cost for 20k local kms driven.

 

Just petrol & charging cost, not the 15 oil changes or 3 or so full tune ups the ICEV will need.

[Yellowtail]

Just now, KhunLA said:

Actually I spit ball, MG4 is ~฿700k, as are  few BYDs.  So pick your 1.5L Toyota w/AT or whatever, and should be in the same ฿700k ball park.  Today's prices and not really on sale.   No need to mention performance, as we all know that answer.

 

And used the usual, almost standard 50kWh battery for 360 kms per charge & ฿5/kW, and petrol, 14 kpL @ ฿36.   Yearly cost for 20k local kms driven.

 

Just petrol & charging cost, not the 15 oil changes or 3 or so full tune ups the ICEV will need.

Tune ups? What is it, 1980? 

[vinny41]

6 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Actually I spit ball, MG4 is ~฿700k, as are  few BYDs.  So pick your 1.5L Toyota w/AT or whatever, and should be in the same ฿700k ball park.  Today's prices and not really on sale.   No need to mention performance, as we all know that answer.

 

And used the usual, almost standard 50kWh battery for 360 kms per charge & ฿5/kW, and petrol, 14 kpL @ ฿36.   Yearly cost for 20k local kms driven.

 

Just petrol & charging cost, not the 15 oil changes or 3 or so full tune ups the ICEV will need.

Ford recommend oil change every 15,000 km or every 12 months on their rangers other brands suggest 20,000 km or every 12 months on some models

looking at your original figures the ICE owner still comes out better off  51,428 X 8 = B411,424 still less than the price reduction of the MG ZS EV of B591,000 plus the extra insurance costs for 8 years and the extra insurance premium to be paid each year to top up battery cover to 100%

[KhunLA]

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Tune ups? What is it, 1980? 

I never had spark plugs last 160k kms, especially originals with the car.  Coolant, belts, timing belt if having, hoses.   All those things electric motors don't have.  Along with 1000+ other parts.

 

Just sticking to energy/fuel, and hard to argue, you won't save about 300k over 8 years.  I can think of a few things to spend 300k on, instead of giving it to PTT or vendor of your chcoice.

 

YMMV of course.   

Didn't mention solar, or fluctuation in petrol prices, usually up in turbulent times, which seem never ending now.

[KhunLA]

13 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Ford recommend oil change every 15,000 km or every 12 months on their rangers other brands suggest 20,000 km or every 12 months on some models

looking at your original figures the ICE owner still comes out better off  51,428 X 8 = B411,424 still less than the price reduction of the MG ZS EV of B591,000 plus the extra insurance costs for 8 years and the extra insurance premium to be paid each year to top up battery cover to 100%

And every ICEV that I owned in TH, recommended 10k kms for oil change.  Maintenance aside (we know which cost more), I stuck with only electric & petrol.

 

You can distract all you want.  As everything else, is in ADDITION to just the fuel.  Kind of supports my side of the discussion.  Feel free to subtract 10-20-30% of maintenance cost ot any number, it's still adds to the 300k.

 

Nobody know what EVs or ICEVs are going to be worth in 8 yrs.  And with a 300k head start, don't think the BEV owner is going to be disappointed.   Gets to drive a better performing vehicle in those 8 yrs.

 

In 8 yrs, nobody may even want ICEVs, except collectors ... 

 

How many countries plan on stopping or restricting the sale of ICEVs in 2030/2035 ?

[Yellowtail]

6 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I never had spark plugs last 160k kms, especially originals with the car.  Coolant, belts, timing belt if having, hoses.   All those things electric motors don't have.  Along with 1000+ other parts.

 

Just sticking to energy/fuel, and hard to argue, you won't save about 300k over 8 years.  I can think of a few things to spend 300k on, instead of giving it to PTT or vendor of your chcoice.

 

YMMV of course.   

Didn't mention solar, or fluctuation in petrol prices, usually up in turbulent times, which seem never ending now.

No spark plugs in a diesel. 

 

I have not had a belt of hose go bad or had them changed in as long as I can remember. 

 

Timing chain on the 2.8l Toyota diesel, no scheduled replacement. 

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

19 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

All those things electric motors don't have.  Along with 1000+ other parts.

Are any of those 1,000 parts in the room with us now?

 

[KhunLA]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

No spark plugs in a diesel. 

 

I have not had a belt of hose go bad or had them changed in as long as I can remember. 

 

Timing chain on the 2.8l Toyota diesel, no scheduled replacement. 

 

Apple & oranges, we're talking 700k passenger cars.  Really, 2.8L diesel   And buy in cost ???  

 

Take the extra buy in cost of the 2.8L, install solar at the house, and not only save the 12.8k for the BEV, probably another 40-60k a year off PEA bill.  So now 50-70k X 8 yrs 

 

That's why I kept it simple ... but hey, I like your distraction, get to save more money.

 

 

[KhunLA]

1 minute ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Are any of those 1,000 parts in the room with us now?

 

go away ... nobody cars what you spew any more.  Shouldn't you be fishing someplace else.  Nobody biting here.