Assault on Kiev: Russian helicopters swoop above Ukraine's capital

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, Hummin said:

A silent vote is from those countries who still want to be in business with Russia, keep their relations,  and do not want to harm their future relations with russia. Those countries represent 4,5 billion people. That says something! 

Playing with words and numbers again......carry on its what Putin does too.

 

They "officially" abstained

[Bkk Brian]

If you want to dig into what an active Russian FSB (Federal Security Service) officer thinks of the current situation in a leaked facebook post then read the whole twitter thread, links are contained within it. 

 

Bellingcat seems to confirm its authentic: "I showed the letter to two actual (current or former) FSB contacts, and they had no doubt it was written by a colleague. They didn't agree with all of his conclusions, but that's a different story. Here's the text, worth reading:"

 

Here's a few snippets:

 

To read the full thread this is the link

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500301348780199937

 

I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports.

 

All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone.

 

Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.

 

Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country, then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations?

 

To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics.

 

Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical.

 

With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!)

 

 

[Hummin]

30 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Playing with words and numbers again......carry on its what Putin does too.

 

They "officially" abstained

What that those number means, is that the sanctions is not that effective as we would like to think. I'm getting a bit annoyed how little realistic many are when it comes to the fact Putin can continue this war for years. I only need to remind everyone one of Syria, and Bashar Al-Assad that have kept going strong now for how many years? 

 

So far no one have decided to ban oil and gas from Russia, and Saudi have not stepped up production of oil on order from USA. Why so? Saudi have been an Allie of USA, and pretty much all their wealth is because of USA! But they choose to stand with Russia now!

 

Crazy world after all, and as I said 3 days ago, we still haven't seen how bad it will be yet, the worst is to come, and at same time the Siberian cold coming! 

 

Europe's biggest human tragedy since WW2.

 

It is a world where world leaders calculating economic losses against innocent human beings!

 

Again, not advokating for Putin or his crimes! 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Hummin said:

What that those number means, is that the sanctions is not that effective as we would like to think. I'm getting a bit annoyed how little realistic many are when it comes to the fact Putin can continue this war for years. I only need to remind everyone one of Syria, and Bashar Al-Assad that have kept going strong now for how many years? 

 

Impossible for Putin to carry this on for years, the sanctions are to severe.

 

This from the leaked FSB agent:

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."

[Hummin]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Impossible for Putin to carry this on for years, the sanctions are to severe.

 

This from the leaked FSB agent:

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."

We have to wait and see, if that is true, we are just months away from the biggest human tragedy since the wipe out by an asteroide 65 millions years ago.

 

Putin is the rat who will push the button! He is not giving up, his KGB training and life as well his pride will not allow it.

 

Hope or pray for the best!

[Virt]

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Impossible for Putin to carry this on for years, the sanctions are to severe.

 

This from the leaked FSB agent:

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."

They had Peter the great that brought Russia into modern age.

 

Now they have Putin the not so great, that will bring them back to the Stone age.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, Hummin said:

We have to wait and see, if that is true, we are just months away from the biggest human tragedy since the wipe out by an asteroide 65 millions years ago.

 

Putin is the rat who will push the button! He is not giving up, his KGB training and life as well his pride will not allow it.

 

Hope or pray for the best!

Any other suggestions? there are only two choices, Ukraine surrenders or Putin stops.

 

This humanitarian disaster is caused by Putin and the choice to carry it on is his alone.

[Hummin]

18 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Any other suggestions? there are only two choices, Ukraine surrenders or Putin stops.

 

This humanitarian disaster is caused by Putin and the choice to carry it on is his alone.

Can we live with Putin until we finely find a solution, instead of wasting innocent lives in Ukraine? Or risk a bigger vipe out? 

 

That is a realistic question? If this escalades I will go back to Norway and face it if necessary and if I can be of any help. 

 

Not many in here so far said they will. Even seen one who said he would not fight for Uk, but he would fight for Thailand. Bissar if you ask me!

 

Most here are maybe to old, but there will be need of people who replace those who is going to the front lines or serve in another way. 

 

I'm still young enough for both, know Norway's mountains, the clima, trained for an invasion from Russia, and also lived an active outdoor life. 

 

One year ago, I did not see this coming, but the more I'm thinking of it, more it becomes a reality and realistic.

 

It is easy to discuss war when you do not want to risk anything, willing to, do not feel the responsibility, or do not need to risk anything!

[Berkshire]

19 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Impossible for Putin to carry this on for years, the sanctions are to severe.

 

This from the leaked FSB agent:

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."

Not sure what this FSB agent is thinking.  Even if the Russians win ("in June") and turn Ukraine to a pile of rubble, the sanctions will still be there...and probably much more severe.  There won't be an economy left in Russia regardless.

[Virt]

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Any other suggestions? there are only two choices, Ukraine surrenders or Putin stops.

 

This humanitarian disaster is caused by Putin and the choice to carry it on is his alone.

This former Russian minister don't think Putin will push the button and hopefully he is correct 

 

I know he is Russian but it's still an interesting read.

Especially number 2 where he talk about money being stolen that was meant for the Russian military.

 

His end conclusion is also quite interesting.

If he is right maybe NATO shouldn't be so afraid to intervene.

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Virt said:

This former Russian minister don't think Putin will push the button and hopefully he is correct 

 

I know he is Russian but it's still an interesting read.

Especially number 2 where he talk about money being stolen that was meant for the Russian military.

 

His end conclusion is also quite interesting.

If he is right maybe NATO shouldn't be so afraid to intervene.

 

 

 

Yes I also read that thread this morning, interesting read

 

"The ultimate conclusion here is that the West should not agree to any unilateral concessions or limit its support of Ukraine too much for the fear of nuclear war."

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Can we live with Putin until we finely find a solution, instead of wasting innocent lives in Ukraine? Or risk a bigger vipe out? 

 

That is a realistic question? If this escalades I will go back to Norway and face it if necessary and if I can be of any help. 

 

Not many in here so far said they will. Even seen one who said he would not fight for Uk, but he would fight for Thailand. Bissar if you ask me!

 

Most here are maybe to old, but there will be need of people who replace those who is going to the front lines or serve in another way. 

 

I'm still young enough for both, know Norway's mountains, the clima, trained for an invasion from Russia, and also lived an active outdoor life. 

 

One year ago, I did not see this coming, but the more I'm thinking of it, more it becomes a reality and realistic.

 

It is easy to discuss war when you do not want to risk anything or do not need to risk anything!

Agree its easy to discuss war but then this thread is just that, a discussion on the war. Your sentiments probably echo the majority of members its not just you feeling like that. You being young enough can do as you say and help the fight if need be, others cannot.

[Kwasaki]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I do too. What can we do? Invade Russia? How about just getting to the root of the problem, as Lindsay Graham suggested? 

What can the wind bag mouth's of the west do.  !!!!!

Stop messing about and give Ukraine the planes they want instead of talking about it.

 

[jollyhangmon]

9 hours ago, Virt said:

A bit off topic but related to the war in Ukraine.

Seems like we here in Denmark has to vote if we want to keep the EU Defence opt-out

that we had in place since 1993 or so.

Press meeting with the prime minister soon.

 

So Putin managed to do what EU couldn't do for so many years.

This time i will vote YES for Denmark to join EUs military operations.

 

Never been a fan of EU and voted NO all the times we had votings,

but Putin managed to change my mind on this specific Danish defence opt-out.

 

The below describes what is it.

 

Due to the Danish defence opt-out, Denmark cannot participate in EU military operations or in the cooperation on development and acquisition of military capabilities within the EU framework. Additionally, Denmark will not provide military support or supplies for EU-led efforts in conflict areas, nor participate in any decision or planning regarding operations.

 

Yes, basically same discussion in Austria after Vladboi pouted around a bit and they really had to clarify that their constitutional neutrality certainly wouldn't extend to breach of international law and similar niceties, duh ...

 

Also interesting times when a Jewish historian tells the Germs basically '... good you get up of your ass now, we all carry around way too much weight of history ... we know you're not nazis, I know you're actually the least ones to repeat such a mistake. We need you strong and armed, etc., pp. ...'

 

I pretty much doubt such developments were intended by comrade megalomaniac, 555 ... I'll go looking for the video where I saw that ^ , 'twas on another device unfortunately ...

 

/ edit:   here's what I meant, link should drop you accordingly, if not it's from 28:30 ...

 

https://youtu.be/yQqthbvYE8M?t=1700

 

 

... also interesting "everyone will suffer in a way, no matter if in Australia, Brasil, Alaska ..."

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQqthbvYE8M&t=683s

 

(from 11:20 in case the link fails ...)

 

[tgw]

1 hour ago, Hummin said:

We have to wait and see, if that is true, we are just months away from the biggest human tragedy since the wipe out by an asteroide 65 millions years ago.

 

Putin is the rat who will push the button! He is not giving up, his KGB training and life as well his pride will not allow it.

 

Hope or pray for the best!

We can only hope other Russian leaders decide to get rid of Putin and stop this mess.

[JohnOFphon]

Someone should start a Go Fund Me page to raise enough money to get someone to put a bullet in Putins head.

I see some Russian guy put up 1 million to have him arrested.......but if that went up say 10 times or more, might get quicker results.

 

[tgw]

53 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Can we live with Putin until we finely find a solution

 

no.

 

"Putin" is the problem.

 

"no Putin" is the solution.

[farmerjo]

35 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

Not sure what this FSB agent is thinking.  Even if the Russians win ("in June") and turn Ukraine to a pile of rubble, the sanctions will still be there...and probably much more severe.  There won't be an economy left in Russia regardless.

I for one is interested to see how these sanctions play out long term.

And whether Russia impose their own sanctions.

Everyone loses out of this,especially net importers although a couple of years of covid should have helped address some of the concerns.

 

 

[tgw]

18 minutes ago, farmerjo said:

I for one is interested to see how these sanctions play out long term.

And whether Russia impose their own sanctions.

Everyone loses out of this,especially net importers although a couple of years of covid should have helped address some of the concerns.

 

the sanctions mostly put pressure on normal Russians and will transform Russia into a North Korea lookalike. But they aren't the main reason why Putin will fail in Ukraine, the main reason is Ukraine is too big for Russia to keep under control. Russia doesn't have the military headcount to occupy Ukraine and supplying their occupation troops will be very difficult.
Putin would have to resort to forced conscription to be able to maintain around 500.000 to 1.000.000 troops in Ukraine. This will completely drain Russia.

 

Also, given the level of hatred these troops will be exposed to, it is very likely that they will suffer a lot of losses during the occupation. I can see antitank missiles being used for years by resistance movements after a formal capitulation of the Ukrainian military, meaning hundreds of vehicles and tens of thousands of soldiers would be lost every year, while Putin plays "rocket boy" in the Kremlin and Russia is cut off from the West.

 

BUT - at the moment, it looks like Russia will not be able to occupy Ukraine, because of the determination of its citizens. Combat morale is very low because many Russian soldiers don't want to kill Ukrainians and combat readiness is low due to supply problems.

We can only hope for that trend to continue and amplify.

[tgw]

I don't know if Putin found ideas there or if Putin's actions and policy were analyzed by this guy and then written down, but this Dugin guy is bad:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

"In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania,"

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html

[Kwasaki]

8 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

"In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania,"

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-weapons.html

Ukraine wants planes. 

[Chris.B]

5 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Ukraine wants planes. 

In the meantime give them Stingers, 1000s of them!

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Kwasaki said:

Ukraine wants planes. 

Thanks for stating the obvious, they also want military hardware.

 

To planes however, who's going to fly them? The Ukrainian's are trained in specific models only.

 

US is working with Poland on the possibility of Warsaw providing fighter jets to Ukraine along with consulting with other allies, the US will then provide the backfill to Poland.

[rudi49jr]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

It would appear there is wide consensus the Holodomor was a man made famine, engineered to stop the independence movement in Ukraine. Stalin was a deeply insecure and paranoid madman. Russia's version of Hitler, the primary difference being that his own people were his primary targets. Up to 5 million Ukrainians perished in the 1930's. And how many Russians? Astonishing cruelty. How could it not be considered genocide? 

 

The real question is, if Putin had unlimited power, would he do the same? I think so. He has shown a blatant disregard for life and a willingness to kill, to maintain his power. He could be a genocidal maniac in the making. A pathological nutter, who appears to be deliberately targeting civilian women and children. Is this war or genocide? Is it the sheer volume of dead civilians that decides this question? 

 

It would appear that Stalin was only matched by Mao, as a genocidal madman. Hitler was much further down on that infamous list. 

 

Besides adjusting the numbers upward to as many as 45 million Chinese deaths, Dikötter and others have made another important point: many deaths were violent. Communist Party officials beat to death anyone suspected of hoarding grain, or people who tried to escape the death farms by traveling to cities. 

 

https://www.chinafile.com/library/nyrb-china-archive/who-killed-more-hitler-stalin-or-mao

 

Indeed, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, the literary giant who wrote harrowingly about the Soviet gulag system, claimed the true number of Stalin’s victims might have been as high as 60 million.

 

Most other estimates from reputed scholars and historians tend to range from between 20 and 60 million.

 

https://www.ibtimes.com/how-many-people-did-joseph-stalin-kill-1111789

 

How does a sane person even comprehend these numbers, the malice and ill will, the pathology of mass murder of any people, much less one's own people? 

 

Quotes attributed to Stalin reflected his utter disregard for human life. Among other bons mots, he allegedly declared: “Death is the solution to all problems. No man -- no problem,” and “One death is a tragedy; one million is a statistic.”

 

How these madmen get away with such atrocities, is hard to comprehend. 

 

 

The thing with people like Stalin and Hitler is that they are just the tip of the iceberg, they could never do what they did on their own. Which means there are apparently always many people to do the dirty work of these manics. 

[coolcarer]

1 hour ago, Kwasaki said:

What can the wind bag mouth's of the west do.  !!!!!

Stop messing about and give Ukraine the planes they want instead of talking about it.

 

You and your comrades not managed to persuade Ukraine to surrender yet then. Well in that case yes do a flip, send some planes and let’s give the ruskies a taste of what they deserve, got a nice 40 mile long convoy of weary mud stuck Russians and their equipment waiting.

[nauseus]

3 hours ago, Hummin said:

What that those number means, is that the sanctions is not that effective as we would like to think. I'm getting a bit annoyed how little realistic many are when it comes to the fact Putin can continue this war for years. I only need to remind everyone one of Syria, and Bashar Al-Assad that have kept going strong now for how many years? 

 

So far no one have decided to ban oil and gas from Russia, and Saudi have not stepped up production of oil on order from USA. Why so? Saudi have been an Allie of USA, and pretty much all their wealth is because of USA! But they choose to stand with Russia now!

 

Crazy world after all, and as I said 3 days ago, we still haven't seen how bad it will be yet, the worst is to come, and at same time the Siberian cold coming! 

 

Europe's biggest human tragedy since WW2.

 

It is a world where world leaders calculating economic losses against innocent human beings!

 

Again, not advokating for Putin or his crimes! 

 

 

Well thought out - not.

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Any other suggestions? there are only two choices, Ukraine surrenders or Putin stops.

 

This humanitarian disaster is caused by Putin and the choice to carry it on is his alone.

How about if Putin stops a round?

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, JohnOFphon said:

Someone should start a Go Fund Me page to raise enough money to get someone to put a bullet in Putins head.

I see some Russian guy put up 1 million to have him arrested.......but if that went up say 10 times or more, might get quicker results.

 

Well I think a hero like that would probably be shot on the spot so the motivation would need to be something other than money.

Only his inner inner circle can get close to.him.

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

How about if Putin stops a round?

If Putin carries on which I have no doubt he will with the war crimes already committed, then Ukraine has no choice but to fight for their territory and lives, Ukraine will never be part of Russia.