Back in the USA

[GinBoy2]

1 hour ago, Isaanlife said:

I as at the gas station yesterday and asked a guy filling up his large 4x4 truck. US $186 for gas. Ouch!

This is one of those horrible conundrums.

 

The major source of Putin's funds for his war effort come from oil and gas. So if you really want to hurt him you need to cut that revenue off.

 

Problem is the US is the #1 producer of oil followed by Saudi Arabia with Russia as a close third.

 

Now, the US doesn't really depend on Russian oil, I think it's something like 3% of oil imports.

 

But then it gets complicated. Oil is either 'sweet' or 'sour' and that affects how you refine it, which is why the US while a net exporter still imports oil to get the right blend.

 

For the US, yes it gets pricey but cutting them off is doable.

 

For the Europeans, yikes a few decades of dependency on Russian energy supplies is gonna be painful

[Yellowtail]

10 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

This is one of those horrible conundrums.

 

The major source of Putin's funds for his war effort come from oil and gas. So if you really want to hurt him you need to cut that revenue off.

 

Problem is the US is the #1 producer of oil followed by Saudi Arabia with Russia as a close third.

 

Now, the US doesn't really depend on Russian oil, I think it's something like 3% of oil imports.

 

But then it gets complicated. Oil is either 'sweet' or 'sour' and that affects how you refine it, which is why the US while a net exporter still imports oil to get the right blend.

 

For the US, yes it gets pricey but cutting them off is doable.

 

For the Europeans, yikes a few decades of dependency on Russian energy supplies is gonna be painful

As a result of US policies, the price of oil has been going up in the US pretty steadily for a year,  the Russian invasion has merely exasperated it. 

 

A lot of things affect price of oil, but there are two things we know with absolute certainty that will not drive the price down, which are:
1. Increasing production in the United States, and
2. Reducing delivery costs via pipelines in the United States.

 

There are also things we know with absolute certainty that will drive the price down, some of these are:
1. Increasing production in countries with totalitarian regimes,
2. Investing more money in renewable energy, preferably with components we rely on countries with totalitarian regimes to produce for us, and
3. Increasing subsidies to crony renewable energy companies, and
4. Increasing  EV and renewable energy mandates.

 

I think the US should contract Tesla to develop EV campers to be given to the homeless...

 

[John Drake]

On 3/8/2022 at 12:31 PM, spidermike007 said:

I tried to venture into a grocery store without spending over $100. It was incredibly difficult. And I barely bought anything. Walked into Costco and people were dropping $1500 like it was nothing. Stopped at a mechanic I used to use, and they wanted $95 for an estimate for my AC repair! My friend got his tree trimmed for $1600! Another friend spent $5,300,000 on a nice 5,000 sf home in LA. Not amazing. Just nice. Stopped for two sandwiches. $32. Everything was insane. The bubble is going to burst. The price rises cannot be sustained. 

Hope these prices keep going up until the end of the year. That way, maybe I'll get 10 to 12 percent increase in social security. 

[spidermike007]

13 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Hope these prices keep going up until the end of the year. That way, maybe I'll get 10 to 12 percent increase in social security. 

Well, hyper inflation is likely to continue for awhile, but the authorities will never admit the full extent of inflation. Also, what goes up must come down. The economy has been over heated for quite some time, and within a year, or two, or three, many of us are expecting a historic correction. I would not be surprised to see the Dow drop as low as 6,000, and the housing market to drop by 60%. The current stock market pricing, consumer price increases, and real estate market cannot continue. What is conveniently forgotten, is that this seems like the only time I can remember, where we have record low interest rates, combined with a historic rise in real estate prices, and consumer prices, to levels never seen before. That is totally unsustainable. 

 

Not to get too political here, but I believe Trump started this hyper inflationary cycle when he declared an insane trade war on China and Huawei, with hardly anything to back him up, other than hollow threats, and sanctions, which only hurt the US economy, and US consumers and businesses. The Chinese sensed sanctions coming and went out and cornered the world market on rare earth, chips, motherboards, circuit boards, and other materials. Companies started ramping down production due to Covid. When they started to order these elements and parts, none were to be found or the price had skyrocketed. It started a massive supply chain issue with cell phone, computer and automotive components. Then the shipping issues came later. 

Few want to look back at where this started. At the time I said it was the single dumbest thing a politician had done since Chamberlain denied the bad intentions of the Nazis. Trump created hyper inflation, singlehandedly. Thanks, Don. 

Edited March 11, 2022 by spidermike007

[John Drake]

15 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The Chinese sensed sanctions coming and went out and cornered the world market on rare earth, chips, motherboards, circuit boards, and other materials.

I mostly agree with you, although I think the Fed is equally responsible as Trump. Maybe more so, since they've been printing money non-stop since 2008. But I want to focus on your comment above. What is so irksome about that situation is that people have been warning for years that it was a crisis and the US needed to source and process rare earths and other industrial components.  Just like I read maybe 7 or 8 years ago that it was really a dumb idea that the US relied on Russia for rocket engines to get its payloads in orbit. There are many more things to put on the list. And nobody did anything.

[KhunLA]

49 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Hope these prices keep going up until the end of the year. That way, maybe I'll get 10 to 12 percent increase in social security. 

Was thinking the same, as what goes on in the USA, pretty much doesn't affect me at all, since I don't pay taxes.  The higher the inflation, the better.  Have yet to get a COLA that was true to anything.  

 

Apparently USA has had no inflation a few year ... ????????

[ThailandRyan]

Just received my COLA paperwork from my pension.  Looks like I will be getting a 2.96% adjustment.  If I was having to now start paying for the medicare part B, I would be looking at the adjustment being a paltry .46% as the remainder would just barely offset the medicare cost. 

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, John Drake said:

I mostly agree with you, although I think the Fed is equally responsible as Trump. 

No, it has to be all Trump, don't lose focus.

[John Drake]

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

No, it has to be all Trump, don't lose focus.

Trump spent his entire presidency trying to inflate the stock market bubble by begging for more QE constantly.

[Yellowtail]

7 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Trump spent his entire presidency trying to inflate the stock market bubble by begging for more QE constantly.

That's what I said, yes? 

[KhunLA]

27 minutes ago, John Drake said:

Trump spent his entire presidency trying to inflate the stock market bubble by begging for more QE constantly.

QE started with o'idiot, and the fake economic crisis of 2009-

Recession started with bush2, and his fake war of terror after 2000 election

 

Read the 'financial' pages, instead of listening to MSM ...

 

But hey, it's all Trump's fault.

Edited March 11, 2022 by KhunLA

[Guest Isaanlife]

30 DAY UPDATE

 

After being back in the USA (Florida) for 30 days, it is still quite a shock to see the rising prices.

 

Gas and Food is reported costing the average family an extra $375 a month.

 

New housing for an average house is at least $228/square foot. Housing is going absolutely crazy with prices doubling over what they were 3 years ago. You see tons of out of state license plates and traffic has increased 10 fold. My neighbor put her house up for sale. First day of open house, over 50 people showed up. One guy I spoke with was from California.

 

The good news is homeowners now have a ton of equity due to the price increase. The bad news is if you sell to cash out the equity, you will pay even more for your next house. Would be great if you cashed out and moved to Thailand or some other third world country.

 

Land? Builders are paying $40,000 for a 1/4 acre lot anywhere and everywhere you look. At least 10,000 new houses under construction in this area.

 

The price of wood and lumber is 3x what it use to be.

 

Store shelves, even the biggest, are having a hard time keeping inventory 100%. Lot of aisles with empty shelves.

 

McDonalds paying up to $15/hour and them and lots of other places can't seem to find anyone willing to work?

 

Still lots of COVID reported, however, if you watched people out and about, you would never know COVID even existed. No masks, no regulations, full sporting events, concerts, etc.

 

We made the decision to move with no regrets.

 

We have learned that once over here, you tend to learn a lot more than you thought was going on.

 

Was it a good decision? It is hard to say at this point?

 

We can afford it with no issues but is it the best choice over the long term? Anyone's guess as to how things go in the future.

 

Much like Thailand or any other country.

 

Certain events can screw up even the best of plans. 

 

Ukrainians woke up one day in a burning hell.

 

The average Russian woke up one day their money/credit worthless.

 

Seeing costs in the US going out of control and out of reach for many.

 

Anything can happen in any country. Best to have a plan or don't be surprised when there is a catastrophe knocking on your own door.

 

I can't honestly say I see things getting better?

 

For people already established with a home, maybe ok. But those just starting out will have a heck of a time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gecko123]

32 minutes ago, Isaanlife said:

30 DAY UPDATE

 

After being back in the USA (Florida) for 30 days, it is still quite a shock to see the rising prices.

 

Gas and Food is reported costing the average family an extra $375 a month.

 

New housing for an average house is at least $228/square foot. Housing is going absolutely crazy with prices doubling over what they were 3 years ago. You see tons of out of state license plates and traffic has increased 10 fold. My neighbor put her house up for sale. First day of open house, over 50 people showed up. One guy I spoke with was from California.

 

The good news is homeowners now have a ton of equity due to the price increase. The bad news is if you sell to cash out the equity, you will pay even more for your next house. Would be great if you cashed out and moved to Thailand or some other third world country.

 

Land? Builders are paying $40,000 for a 1/4 acre lot anywhere and everywhere you look. At least 10,000 new houses under construction in this area.

 

The price of wood and lumber is 3x what it use to be.

 

Store shelves, even the biggest, are having a hard time keeping inventory 100%. Lot of aisles with empty shelves.

 

McDonalds paying up to $15/hour and them and lots of other places can't seem to find anyone willing to work?

 

Still lots of COVID reported, however, if you watched people out and about, you would never know COVID even existed. No masks, no regulations, full sporting events, concerts, etc.

 

We made the decision to move with no regrets.

 

We have learned that once over here, you tend to learn a lot more than you thought was going on.

 

Was it a good decision? It is hard to say at this point?

 

We can afford it with no issues but is it the best choice over the long term? Anyone's guess as to how things go in the future.

 

Much like Thailand or any other country.

 

Certain events can screw up even the best of plans. 

 

Ukrainians woke up one day in a burning hell.

 

The average Russian woke up one day their money/credit worthless.

 

Seeing costs in the US going out of control and out of reach for many.

 

Anything can happen in any country. Best to have a plan or don't be surprised when there is a catastrophe knocking on your own door.

 

I can't honestly say I see things getting better?

 

For people already established with a home, maybe ok. But those just starting out will have a heck of a time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for the update, much appreciated. I have to say In the past 30 days, I've become more inclined to stay put here in Thailand. I worry about the impact rising interest rates are going to have on the Federal debt, and the sustainability of entitlement programs. Have noticed some pretty startling price increases on Amazon. I have this ominous feeling that something is going to have to give. It feels like the smart thing to do is to err on the side of caution, and keep overhead as low as possible. Just bought a compost thermometer and plan to redouble activity in the gardens. 

[Guest Isaanlife]

44 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

Thank you for the update, much appreciated. I have to say In the past 30 days, I've become more inclined to stay put here in Thailand. I worry about the impact rising interest rates are going to have on the Federal debt, and the sustainability of entitlement programs. Have noticed some pretty startling price increases on Amazon. I have this ominous feeling that something is going to have to give. It feels like the smart thing to do is to err on the side of caution, and keep overhead as low as possible. Just bought a compost thermometer and plan to redouble activity in the gardens. 

We have a bunch of these elevated planter box gardens in the back yard.

 

1 ear of corn in the grocery store is currently $1.00

 

1 cucumber $0.87

 

3 tomatoes $2.87

 

Naval oranges $1.25+ each

 

Eating healthy is getting very expensive

[Yellowtail]

20 hours ago, Gecko123 said:

Thank you for the update, much appreciated. I have to say In the past 30 days, I've become more inclined to stay put here in Thailand. I worry about the impact rising interest rates are going to have on the Federal debt, and the sustainability of entitlement programs. Have noticed some pretty startling price increases on Amazon. I have this ominous feeling that something is going to have to give. It feels like the smart thing to do is to err on the side of caution, and keep overhead as low as possible. Just bought a compost thermometer and plan to redouble activity in the gardens. 

I think one concern staying in Thailand would be that in the event Russia gets away with reabsorbing Ukraine, them China takes Taiwan and once that goes their next logical step will be Southeast Asia. 

[LarrySR]

On 3/11/2022 at 2:13 PM, spidermike007 said:

Well, hyper inflation is likely to continue for awhile, but the authorities will never admit the full extent of inflation. Also, what goes up must come down. The economy has been over heated for quite some time, and within a year, or two, or three, many of us are expecting a historic correction. I would not be surprised to see the Dow drop as low as 6,000, and the housing market to drop by 60%. The current stock market pricing, consumer price increases, and real estate market cannot continue. What is conveniently forgotten, is that this seems like the only time I can remember, where we have record low interest rates, combined with a historic rise in real estate prices, and consumer prices, to levels never seen before. That is totally unsustainable. 

 

Not to get too political here, but I believe Trump started this hyper inflationary cycle….
Few want to look back at where this started. At the time I said it was the single dumbest thing a politician had done since Chamberlain denied the bad intentions of the Nazis. Trump created hyper inflation, singlehandedly. Thanks, Don. 

Trump convinced the rubes by repeating over and over again that China is paying $billions and $ billions to the USA in tariffs. 
Americans paid the $billions in tariffs. 

“Tariffs are taxes on goods coming in to the U.S., paid by the importer. The exporter — in this scenario, China — doesn't pay a thing.“

..and the taxpayers also paid $44.9billion to subsidize soybean farmers when China stopped buying.

Hyper inflation, obscene debt, jammed up supply chain and left office with the worst economic conditions since 1929. 

Well Trump did say he would do to the country the same he had done to his business. 
Promises kept. 
And the rubes are lining up saying: “Thank you sir, may I have another”
 

The United States of Idiots is in big trouble. 

Edited March 30, 2022 by LarrySR

[ThailandRyan]

16 minutes ago, LarrySR said:

Trump convinced the rubes by repeating over and over again that China is paying $billions and $ billions to the USA in tariffs. 
Americans paid the $billions in tariffs and they also paid $billions to subsidize soybean farmers when China stopped buying.

Well Trump did say he would do to the country the same he had done to his business. 
Promises kept. 
 

The United States of Idiots is in big trouble. 

You have a link to prove your aspersions......

[LarrySR]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

You have a link to prove your aspersions......

Aspersions?… Otherwise known as historical facts. 

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, LarrySR said:

Aspersions?… Otherwise known as historical facts. 

Definition of aspersion

1a : a false or misleading charge meant to harm someone's reputation casting aspersions on her integrity. b : the act of making such a charge : defamation.

[KannikaP]

For me, it would be Ashton-under-Lyne in Lancashire or Phitsanulok. No brainer!    LOL

 

[LarrySR]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Definition of aspersion

1a : a false or misleading charge meant to harm someone's reputation casting aspersions on her integrity. b : the act of making such a charge : defamation.

Nothing in my post is misleading or false. 

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, LarrySR said:

Nothing in my post is misleading or false. 

Then provide a link showing the US paid china's tarrifs.

[LarrySR]

26 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Then provide a link showing the US paid china's tarrifs.

Tariffs are taxes on goods coming in to the U.S., paid by the importer then passed on to the consumer.
 The exporter — in this scenario, China — doesn't pay a thing.

 

You believed Trump.. LOL

 

Go ahead and send a container of goods to the USA and tell me how much in tariffs you paid….

Edited March 30, 2022 by LarrySR

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, LarrySR said:

Tariffs are taxes on goods coming in to the U.S., paid by the importer. The exporter — in this scenario, China — doesn't pay a thing.

 

You believed Trump.. LOL

Again show a link to prove your words, otherwise stop insuating what you believe is true without proof.  I am for from a supporter of the man....

[LarrySR]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Again show a link to prove your words, otherwise stop insuating what you believe is true without proof.  I am for from a supporter of the man....

Look it up. 

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, LarrySR said:

Look it up. 

Prove your post or move on. I will agree to disagree and say adios to this convo.

[jerrymahoney]

A May 2019 analysis conducted by CNBC found Trump's tariffs are equivalent to one of the largest tax increases in the U.S. in decades. Studies have found that Trump's tariffs reduced real income in the United States, as well as adversely affecting U.S. GDP. Some studies also concluded that the tariffs adversely affected Republican candidates in elections.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_tariffs

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

A May 2019 analysis conducted by CNBC found Trump's tariffs are equivalent to one of the largest tax increases in the U.S. in decades. Studies have found that Trump's tariffs reduced real income in the United States, as well as adversely affecting U.S. GDP. Some studies also concluded that the tariffs adversely affected Republican candidates in elections.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_tariffs

Thank you for the link so I could see the actual issues and the link answered what I asked another poster to post so it could be shown as truthful and not an aspersion.....

[LarrySR]

There is near unanimous consensus among economists that tariffs have a negative effect on economic growth and economic welfare, while free trade and the reduction of trade barriers has a positive effect on economic growth.
 Free trade has advantages of lowering costs of goods and services for consumers.

 

Hence the inflation we see today is linked to the really stupid tariffs and supply chain disruption. 

[LarrySR]

Can we add the USA military expenses spent in the Middle East of  $300 million per day for the last 20 years protecting the oil fields as subsidizing oil companies?