Be Prepared For A Fuel Shortage

[placeholder]

43 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

Wasn't the fuel, currently being dispensed at the pumps, bought and paid for months and months ago at 'normal'  prices?

 

This is a huge opportunity for price gouging........watch how slowly the prices come back down once Putin is sat in The Hague.

So, can you explain why, in the past, when market prices for petroleum plunged, prices for petrol/gasoline at the pump followed in tandem? 

[impulse]

35 minutes ago, jollyhangmon said:

 

... exactly that ^ ...

 

General secretary of OPEC Barkindo: 'There's No Oil Shortage - 
Q: then why the increased price?
A: panic reactions, perceived shortage ...'

 

Bloomberg Markets and Finance 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2022-03-09/opec-s-barkindo-says-there-s-no-oil-shortage-video

 

or     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pd6YPP1PbQ0

 

Partly true, but there is going to be a painful period of "adjustment" as sanctioned countries that used to buy their crude from Russia look for other sources, and non-sanctioned countries buy the newly available Russian oil that used to go to sanctioned countries.  That's a massive reset.

 

Even if the total oil production is the same, there are a lot of pricing pressures due to localized shortages.  And not all refineries can quickly adapt to different grades of crude from around the world.  It may take months to reach a new normal.

 

Add to that the uncertainty of the Ukraine War expanding in scope...

Edited March 11, 2022 by impulse

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Will B Good said:

Wasn't the fuel, currently being dispensed at the pumps, bought and paid for months and months ago at 'normal'  prices?

 

This is a huge opportunity for price gouging........watch how slowly the prices come back down once Putin is sat in The Hague.

Nonsense. In the past when petroleum market prices declined, prices at the pump quickly followed. So, to your way of thinking, it's only suspicious when prices are rising?

[Enoon]

 

Downward, but volatile,  crude price trend over the last few days due to UAE announcing it wishes to increase production to make up for possible shortfalls, but other OPEC members uncertain at present.

 

Price is not the problem.......people will grumble and pay up.

 

Fear of low supply is what, needlessly, drained the pumps in UK last year.

 

Because of the sort of OP that started this thread.

 

Please don't spread uninformed, alarmist nonsense.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Enoon

[scubascuba3]

1 hour ago, stupidfarang said:

40 baht? that is cheap, here in Chumphon it is 42 Baht and up to 44 baht for 95. The petrol stations use to have the same prices but now they have differant prices Shell is the most expensive then Esso and Bangjak and PTT are the same prices. Are you in BKK? Would be interesting to know what people are paying in differant provences

I'm in Pattaya, don't forget with Shell they often only sell the VPower 95 which is much more expensive so best avoided

[alex8912]

4 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Stick your petrol where the sun don't shine ????

 

Fred!  I always loved your car. 

[NoshowJones]

16 hours ago, internationalism said:

more tankers from pattaya direction means more fuel being transported from ports to provinces.

Possible some tanker arrived recently from russia or middle east.

or they just moving their own stock pumped from the gulf, to free space for increased production.

No, it won't lower prices, but petrolium company will make large profit this year 

There is always some Hi So's making large profits out of ordinary peoples miseries, if it's not soldiers taking over the country, it's a pandemic, or a war, always people looking to make big profits out of it.

[Paradise Pete]

2 hours ago, Will B Good said:

Wasn't the fuel, currently being dispensed at the pumps, bought and paid for months and months ago at 'normal'  prices?

With commodities such as fuel, the replacement cost is what determines the pump price. What it cost at the time of purchase doesn't matter.

Nobody will sell it at 30 baht when they have to pay 40 baht to buy it.

 

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Paradise Pete

[placeholder]

9 minutes ago, Paradise Pete said:

With commodities such as fuel, the replacement cost is what determines the pump price. What it cost at the time of purchase doesn't matter.

Nobody will sell it at 30 baht when they have to pay 40 baht to buy it.

 

 

Which also explains why the prices at the pump go down when oil prices decline. I shouldn't have to spell that out but some members posting here don't seem to understand that.

[connda]

There won't be a shortage of fuel here, but boy howdy, the petro-chemical giants are going to rape us all. 

[DJ54]

Diesel was 28+ in NE Kumphawapi today..

[Bday Prang]

Looks like the panic mongering has started already !   Happened in the UK a few months ago, a couple of petrol stations had a temporary delivery problem, it wasn't an issue until the idiots in the media got hold of it and blew it out of all proportion ... within a few hours the fuel "crisis" was in full swing. They found the first queue and helicopter footage was all over the tv,  film crews were sent out to garage forecourts showing arguments between  people desperate for fuel . There were a few "fuel industry" types on the TV telling everybody that there was in fact plenty fuel available, but the media got their way in the end and panic buying started,

                      When 20million people who normally drive around with 5 - 10 litres in their tanks suddenly decide to fill up at the same time it's obvious what is going to happen, and as the pumps ran dry the media frenzy continued...first. It was all down to Brexit causing polish lorry drivers to go home, then there was a World shortage of lorry drivers. then more women needed to become lorry drivers, The prime minister appeared on TV learning to drive a truck,  presumably to encourage some of the 3million unemployed to get of there <deleted> and learn to drive  To keep the panic going there were, of course, reports that the Military would have to get involved with the usual film footage of uniformed soldiers driving trucks.  There was talk of a priority system so that the "vulnerable" would get their fuel before others. With the usual references to the "winter of discontent" and the probable need for rationing and  fuel coupons, and we all needed to change to  electric cars etc. etc.   It went on and on and on !

                          Meanwhile once all the terrified sheep had filled up their tanks and any other containers they could get hold of, the sudden spike in demand stopped and despite the best efforts of the media things returned to normal in a few days..

It doesn't take much to upset the delicate balance of life so I think the original post of this thread should have been taken down by the monitors and the person who wrote it informed why ......either way he should be ashamed of himself.....Panicmonger

[Bday Prang]

Forgot to say, the only thing that didn't return to normal in a few days was the price, of course !!!!!

[brianthainess]

22 hours ago, BritManToo said:

"Be Prepared For A Fuel Shortage"

Don't care, since COVID I've gone nowhere, and 7-11/BigC/Tesco is 500m from my front door.

If I don't cycle, I can walk.

 

Electricity shortages,

Don't care either, I'm almost entirely solar powered now.

Not enough for the shower heaters or air-con, but we can live without them.

One roll of black pvc pipe covered in hin/stones for hot water plumbed in will do the trick, though you will need a mixer tap or you'll boil alive.

[Pdavies99]

I doubt this will happen in Thailand, they are 1st class at sucking up to Russia!

 

It will go up, but plenty of Russian fuel arriving for their friends!

Edited March 11, 2022 by Pdavies99

[NanLaew]

On 3/10/2022 at 6:42 PM, KhunLA said:

On 3/10/2022 at 5:18 PM, Will B Good said:

Well if anything is going to cause a shortage it will be people talking about the risk of a shortage.......where are my keys?

Spot on, reminds me of 1973, when the world was running out of oil ... ????

 

That was all BS also, with refineries in Philly full up, and tankers bottlenecked off the coast unable to unload, as nowhere to put.

 

It's got to be so, if it's on the news ... Sheeple

Don't have to go all that far back. I was in northwest of England when the great fuel shortage of September 2021 kicked off in London and the SE.

 

The Daily Mail is forecasting diesel rationing in the UK from next month so that means it will probably run out this month as the panic-buyers go overboard (again).

 

Up here in Isaan, I just noticed that B10 has vanished from the few forecourts that had it so now it's regular B7 or the ridiculously expensive 'super' B7. I've never seen any B20 up here but the regular B7, B10 and B20 are all the same price now anyway.

[KhunLA]

4 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Don't have to go all that far back. I was in northwest of England when the great fuel shortage of September 2021 kicked off in London and the SE.

 

The Daily Mail is forecasting diesel rationing in the UK from next month so that means it will probably run out this month as the panic-buyers go overboard (again).

 

Up here in Isaan, I just noticed that B10 has vanished from the few forecourts that had it so now it's regular B7 or the ridiculously expensive 'super' B7. I've never seen any B20 up here but the regular B7, B10 and B20 are all the same price now anyway.

It can be a struggle finding E85, and only the newer PTTs have.  Usually 1 pump only.  Hoping they don't discontinue that.  Though would push me toward an EV faster, as about 18% cheaper, and car actually performs slightly better than using E20 or 91.

[Peterw42]

we pulled in to a pump today near Laem Chabang (where they make fuel) and no 91 octane

[Liverpool Lou]

On 3/10/2022 at 5:14 PM, NONG CHOK said:

I'd suggest to make sure you have sufficient gasoline to get back to your home where ever you may be. Things are really going to get tougher until this Ukraine problem is over.

Baseless scaremongering.

 

Should we all clear the shelves of bog rolls also while we're rushing to brim our tanks and fill jerry cans "in order to get back home" as a result of nothing but your train spotting activities?

Edited March 15, 2022 by Liverpool Lou

[Liverpool Lou]

On 3/10/2022 at 6:02 PM, NONG CHOK said:

Will B Good... Maybe you're a panic merchant if that's the case I must apologize for my comments.

You're the "panic merchant" CHOK.

[Liverpool Lou]

On 3/10/2022 at 6:20 PM, Elkski said:

How does the observation of 40 tankers forcast a fuel shortage?  More exports heading North than normal?  

Exactly.  He's just fear-mongering based on his bored train spotting!

[Liverpool Lou]

On 3/10/2022 at 7:43 PM, Will B Good said:

On 3/10/2022 at 6:02 PM, NONG CHOK said:

Will B Good, have you ever been through times where restrictions and coupons applied. Things can shut down overnight while you're asleep. Talking about the risk of a shortage, it's all about communication to help others. Maybe you're a panic merchant if that's the case I must apologize for my comments.

Expand  

........you are funny.

Funny peculiar.

[Liverpool Lou]

On 3/11/2022 at 9:18 AM, wwest5829 said:

I am a retired academic and as such, having been educated about various countries and cultures, lean left of center (at least in today's US political environment)

Gee, great, thanks for that irrelevant information about your equally irrelevant education, academic capabilities and political bent.  

[Liverpool Lou]

On 3/11/2022 at 9:43 AM, shackleton said:

If it eases congestion on the roads  especially in Bangkok could be a good thing less  pollution ect ????

People should think about sharing when driving to work cut back on costs as well 

You can live in hope ???? 

Do you still drive in Bangkok?   Who do you share your journeys with or do you just think about it as something others should be doing?

[placeholder]

Here's a graph of how pump prices aligned with oil prices:

 

https://www.thebalance.com/how-crude-oil-prices-affect-gas-prices-3306230

(For some reason the line showing crude price per gallon gets washed out when copied. Best to follow the link to see more clearly)

 

Since that graph is for US prices, I also included the graph below that compares US to Thai petrol/gasoline prices. As you can see, the prices rise and fall similarly.

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by placeholder

[leba]

On 3/10/2022 at 5:14 PM, NONG CHOK said:

the trains from the Pattaya direction go right past my front window

you are living THE LIFE ❤️

 

 

[wwest5829]

3 hours ago, Liverpool Lou said:

Gee, great, thanks for that irrelevant information about your equally irrelevant education, academic capabilities and political bent.  

Thanks for the reminder from Dickens that ignorance and want spell doom … 

[spidermike007]

On 3/10/2022 at 5:44 PM, KhunLA said:

Another day, another baht ...

 

...  come on MG, release the new ZS EV here.  Enough already ????

Saw a 2020 for sale @ 800k ... damn tempting.

Please don't buy Chinese or Russian. Not that the Russians have much to offer besides oil, gas, fertilizers, borscht and caviar. 

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

Here's a graph of how pump prices aligned with oil prices:

 

https://www.thebalance.com/how-crude-oil-prices-affect-gas-prices-3306230

(For some reason the line showing crude price per gallon gets washed out when copied. Best to follow the link to see more clearly)

 

Since that graph is for US prices, I also included the graph below that compares US to Thai petrol/gasoline prices. As you can see, the prices rise and fall similarly.

 

In Thailand it goes up, but not always in proportion to the price of oil. Same when oil prices drop. In the US, it goes up alot, when oil rises, and in California, it barely drops when oil drops by 20%. Alot of manipulative forces at work, it would appear. 

[KhunLA]

25 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Please don't buy Chinese or Russian. Not that the Russians have much to offer besides oil, gas, fertilizers, borscht and caviar. 

Why ?  

 

Can't think of any Russian products.  Can't think of any product, not whole or part Chinese.

What EV would you recommend ? 

Already have MG ZS (2020 ICE), and best car I've owned.  Probably last ICE I'll ever buy.

 

ICE needs oil / petrol, so may have some Ruskie in it.

90% of my electronic are whole or part Chinese already.

As long as they make the best at best price, don't see a reason not to buy.